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cohenstantinople

When to really draft a QB? WHIR

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Seems to me, you can't give a blanket statement ---- I prefer later rounds, definitely when it's 1 point per 25 yards and 4 points per passing TD. (250 yards + 1 TD = 14 points)

 

But please consider: I'm in a PPR 12-team league, QBs earning 1 point per 15 yards and 6 points per passing TD. (250 yards + 1 TD = 21.6 points)

 

Based on past trends in this league, 1st tier QBs are going in round 2, Ben and Brees and Russell Wilson will go in round 3.

 

Please weigh in: where is the value pick? How would you face this snake draft, and who would you shoot for?

 

WHIR

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Russell Wilson and Drew Brees aren't 1st tier QBs?

I'm a LRQB guy myself but if the Seahawks keep the offense as is, Russell Wilson will be the QB1. I'll take him in the right spot. 

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I predict Cam and Rodgers in round 2, but you're right: Brees and Wilson are top shelf though in this league they might last into round 3.

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In any league QB selection is more what your league mates figure to do than what is the scoring system and you have a better feel for that than any of us do. 

 

The only league that I play in with higher scoring QB settings is roughly equally divided between QB early and late folks so I don't change my strategy of QB very, very late. Just like last year when Bortles, Palmer and Rivers were drastically undervalued we will have double digit round QBs who turn out to be solid "1"s...just pick carefully even when it's late.

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Brees and maybe Luck I would target in this format mid to late 3rd but I don't know if they will last that long.

 

For example Brees had 1030 more yards despite 1 fewer game then Newton that's 69 more pts so he closes the gap.

 

I would target Brees high for his big yard total in this league and maybe Luck for his ceiling but other then those 2 I would wait and be the last team to take a QB.

 

Newton and Wilson lose alot of luster with yards so much more valuable too they would be dnd for me in this format in regards to where they will likely be drafted.

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Thank you -- appreciate the help -- competitive league

 

Ol Blues, I agree, it's the league-mates that dictate the QB draft pace. This is a one QB league, yet with the emphasis on QB scoring it's not uncommon (here) for some to draft two QBs by round 9. I'd prefer double digits for my first, but you can see how ending up with Teddy B as a starter may decrease weekly point totals by 20. When you say "pick carefully," who would you pick?

 

Turner, though I'm not high on any one Saint WR, I agree, Brees is poised, again, for big numbers. Played against him last year vs Giants, the game he scored 7 TDs. I had Eli (with 6 TDs). Outstanding. If they pick up Anquan Boldin the field will be spread out even more nicely. If Brees goes in round 2, there's no hope for me, can't see using a 2nd round pick on a QB. Would you? Would you consider Brees round 3?

 

Note: there are 8 players drafted after round 7 last year, all 8 are keepers and are going in rounds 1 and 2 (Hopkins, D. Johnson, Freeman...). With that in mind, Brees round 3 is measured against Maclin, Cobb, and possibly Golden Tate. 

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23 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

Thank you -- appreciate the help -- competitive league

 

Ol Blues, I agree, it's the league-mates that dictate the QB draft pace. This is a one QB league, yet with the emphasis on QB scoring it's not uncommon (here) for some to draft two QBs by round 9. I'd prefer double digits for my first, but you can see how ending up with Teddy B as a starter may decrease weekly point totals by 20. When you say "pick carefully," who would you pick?

 

Turner, though I'm not high on any one Saint WR, I agree, Brees is poised, again, for big numbers. Played against him last year vs Giants, the game he scored 7 TDs. I had Eli (with 6 TDs). Outstanding. If they pick up Anquan Boldin the field will be spread out even more nicely. If Brees goes in round 2, there's no hope for me, can't see using a 2nd round pick on a QB. Would you? Would you consider Brees round 3?

 

Note: there are 8 players drafted after round 7 last year, all 8 are keepers and are going in rounds 1 and 2 (Hopkins, D. Johnson, Freeman...). With that in mind, Brees round 3 is measured against Maclin, Cobb, and possibly Golden Tate. 

 

I wouldn't over Tate, the other 2 off the top of my head no but that's without truly digging into your qb scoring, Brees definitely gets a upgrade in this format but how much of one I'm not sure. Like I said earlier if I were in this league I would likely set a range for Brees and if he fell in the range I have him I would love to own them where 1 pt for 15 yards but if not I would plan to be the last or one of the last to select a starter.

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16 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

Thank you -- appreciate the help -- competitive league

 

Ol Blues, I agree, it's the league-mates that dictate the QB draft pace. This is a one QB league, yet with the emphasis on QB scoring it's not uncommon (here) for some to draft two QBs by round 9. I'd prefer double digits for my first, but you can see how ending up with Teddy B as a starter may decrease weekly point totals by 20. When you say "pick carefully," who would you pick?

 

 

Same situation in my league. Last year some teams drafted 2 before I drafted my first but I still had Stafford and Rivers to start the season and only missed out on Palmer because a league mate is an Arizona homer.

 

To me the late who's depend again more on league mate proclivities than anything else. The late on QBs that particularly appeal to me who figure to be available in MY league because we lack any "homers" for the teams they're on include Eli (#10 2 years running and his weapons just got a serious upgrade), Winston (5 games out of 16 he was missing a WR starter in a thin receiving corps yet he still excelled and Koetter should loosen the reins further), Stafford (Calvin's departure hurts but this will continue to be a pass heavy team), Rivers (AGAIN he's undervalued), Taylor (Watkins health is critical to his value), Smith (a bit more risk taking last season and, with Houston likely PUPd, likely even more early this season), Cousins (unsure if last season was a mirage but he was devastating down the stretch), and I actually believe both Teddy and Gabbert figure to be stream worthy frequently this year. I'm very comfortable with 2 very, very late. Other "lates" who merit attention but will be MIAs in my league include Tannehill, Dalton, Carr, and Mariota, although I'm only seriously interested in the last 2.

 

Of those listed above Eli, Rivers, Stafford comprise tier 1. Winston/Cousins are tier 2. And Smith is baseline QB15.

 

Good luck!

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The scoring shouldn't change your outlook much unless they start giving bonuses for big games or adding points for completions. I'd still wait on a QB, if 4 or more go in the top 3 rounds, that means you get a guy 4 or more spots better than yours starting in the 4th. I believe in the first or last ideology, if you aren't the first to take a position, be the last. So if you are in a 12 team league and 4 teams reach for QBs early, forget about QBs for a while. There is no sense following a run for minimal gain when doing so also loses you points elsewhere. 

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Ol Blues, I agree, and I don't think Cousins was a mirage. I wouldn't choose him ahead of Eli, but with all of his weapons I like him as much as Rivers. Merging your tiers with ajlynema's advice, I'm thinking a 4-4-4 strategy is a good approach: if Brees and Wilson (et al) are gone in rounds 2-3, wait until round 6 for Eli, Stafford, Cousins, Rivers, and if they're gone, it's a double digit grab for Winston. Dalton on up will be gone by then. I like Carr, but only for the first four games; A Smith doesn't fare well in this league. Fitzpatrick, I don't know how to interpret... he's one QB I continually leave out for some reason...

 

...if anyone has any thoughts on Fitzpatrick, shoot.

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Even if QBs get 1 pt per 1 yard passing and 35 points for TDs, the same scoring applies to ALL of them.

 

You can still wait on a guy like Stafford, Cousins or Tannehill.

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4 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

Seems to me, you can't give a blanket statement ---- I prefer later rounds, definitely when it's 1 point per 25 yards and 4 points per passing TD. (250 yards + 1 TD = 14 points)

 

But please consider: I'm in a PPR 12-team league, QBs earning 1 point per 15 yards and 6 points per passing TD. (250 yards + 1 TD = 21.6 points)

 

Based on past trends in this league, 1st tier QBs are going in round 2, Ben and Brees and Russell Wilson will go in round 3.

 

Please weigh in: where is the value pick? How would you face this snake draft, and who would you shoot for?

 

WHIR

 

6 points per passing TD and 1 point per 15 yards passing actually devalues QBs even more than a standard setup, and increases the depth.     Suddenly guys that suck like Alex Smith become viable as a matchup play.   Even Geno Smith could put up 20 points with relative ease in a setup like this.   

 

It also gives a bit of a hit to the running QBs like Cam, Wilson, etc.       So I would gladly let someone else reach and take those players in round 3,  and take Eli Manning or Rivers in round 8, and have a guy consistently in the top 15 while having the best depth at the more important positions of RB and WR.     

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As far as "When" to draft a QB.    There's no correct answer to this other than to look at how your draft is playing out.   There isn't a magic round number. 

 

Make a list of all 32 starting QBs on an Excel spreadsheet.    Tier them out by color based on your own preference.   Draw a line of demarcation where you know anyone below that line are guys you don't wanna have as your weekly starter.       As the draft is unfolding, simply cross out the names that come off the board.     You follow that process, and it'll eventually get closer to your line.      THAT will tell you when it's time to take a QB.       Depending on what type of league and who's drafting, that round may be in round 6, or it may be in round 13.    There's no way for any of us to know. 

 

The other approach is to just say 'f it..  i want an elite, top tier QB'.      Then just follow the same process.    You may have 5 guys you have in that tier.  Or depending on your scoring setup, there may be 8 guys.    Target anyone in that top 8, and make sure you get 1 when your turn comes back around on the snake.    

 

Follow what the other teams are doing that have drafted.    If you know 7 of the teams have taken a QB already, and you pick just before 3 other teams who haven't taken one, then that's your indicator to get your QB rather than risking losing them.   

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Good point about the devaluation of rushing QBs, Jigsaw. I didn't factor that in. But Geno putting up 20 points means little if Wilson and Ben are earning 45-50. In many cases, top QBs are doubling totals of solid WRs/RBs. This is the only league I play in with this scoring, and it's a challenge to balance.

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2 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

::::::::::::::::::::..

 

...if anyone has any thoughts on Fitzpatrick, shoot.

I didn't include Fitz because his situation is so unclear, but my hunch remains that he returns to the Jets and is severely undervalued due to his lack of currency in early draft thinking and the misperception that the Jets brutal schedule caps his upside (I believe the opposite is true). I really like Fitz's weapons this season as I see Forte under Gailey as a nightmare for DCs to scheme against and Decker and Marshall are a solid productive duo.

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Great take on the brutal schedule. As a Jets fan, I hope it's true. Since the league is full with New Yorkers, I expect Fitzpatrick's under-valuing to be at least partially cancelled by hope. We were astounded by Marshall / Decker last season, and Fitz's rapport. 

 

For me, a realistic decision might be:

 

                                                        Fitzpatrick or

                                                        Romo or

                                                        Cousins.

 

If anyone has thoughts on these three, comparatively, please weigh in.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

I predict Cam and Rodgers in round 2, but you're right: Brees and Wilson are top shelf though in this league they might last into round 3.

Cam won't be there in round 2 same for Arod and Brees/Russ Wilson. All 4 of them are going in RD 1 this year. 

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If those four QBs went round 1 (and not 2) I'd be psyched: opens the door on even better WR / RB picks for me in round 2. If I can avoid impulse shopping, I'm thinking I'll wait, but again, based on previous trends, later pick may come down to:

 

     Fitzpatrick

     Romo

     Cousins

 

Who sees the light?

 

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43 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

As early as possible. 

 

...after the 10th round.

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You should draft a qb after everyone else does.

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Don't know the protocol if I should start a new thread, but the question remains as no one has touched it-----how would you rank these QBs?

 

     Fitzpatrick

     Romo

     Cousins

 

 

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i agree with the notion that leaguemates decide. sometimes if everyone is waiting i will pounce on a top guy. every year it gets later and later in some leagues and getting an arod or cam in the 5th this year is crazy but it will happen in some money leagues. it's so deep but that doesn't mean you always have to wait

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6 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

Don't know the protocol if I should start a new thread, but the question remains as no one has touched it-----how would you rank these QBs?

 

     Fitzpatrick

     Romo

     Cousins

 

 

 

The top 5 guy, then about a mile down to the guy who is injured every season, and then a journey to the center of the Earth to draft a QB who isn't even playing in the NFL.

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On July 16, 2016 at 1:57 PM, cohenstantinople said:

Good point about the devaluation of rushing QBs, Jigsaw. I didn't factor that in. But Geno putting up 20 points means little if Wilson and Ben are earning 45-50. In many cases, top QBs are doubling totals of solid WRs/RBs. This is the only league I play in with this scoring, and it's a challenge to balance.

This

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