NYR Fan 116894

Eli Rogers 2016 Season Outlook

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3 minutes ago, handy_andy86 said:

 

Last year Pitt averaged 37 pass attempts per game, and MIN averaged only 28.  So the difference between the Vikings' #1 target and the Steelers' #2/3 target is a lot smaller than you might think.

 

Agreed. But Diggs seeing 110-120 targets is better than Eli Rogers seeing 90-100 targets IMO. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Agreed. But Diggs seeing 110-120 targets is better than Eli Rogers seeing 90-100 targets IMO. 

 

Not so sure about that.

 

2015 Diggs...

  Receiving Rushing Fantasy
Week Opp Result                 Target Rec Yard   Avg TD Att Yard Avg TD FPts
9 STL W 21-18 5 3 42 14.0 0 0 0 - 0 4.2
10 at OAK W 30-14 2 2 46 23.0 0 1 10 10.0 0 5.6
11 GB L 13-30 9 6 66 11.0 0 0 0 - 0 6.6
12 at ATL W 20-10 4 4 31 7.8 0 0 0 - 0 3.1
13 SEA L 7-38 6 2 22 11.0 0 1 -6 -6.0 0 1.6
14 at ARI L 20-23 7 2 12 6.0 0 0 0 - 0 1.2
15 CHI W 38-17 4 3 55 18.3 2 0 0 - 0 17.5
16 NYG W 49-17 5 4 19 4.8 0 0 0 - 0 1.9
17 at GB W 20-13 2 1 8 8.0 0 0 0 - 0 0.8
WC SEA L 9-10 6 4 26 6.5 0 1 6 6.0 0 3.2

 

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4 minutes ago, MBarbarian said:

 

Not so sure about that.

 

2015 Diggs...

  Receiving Rushing Fantasy
Week Opp Result                 Target Rec Yard   Avg TD Att Yard Avg TD FPts
9 STL W 21-18 5 3 42 14.0 0 0 0 - 0 4.2
10 at OAK W 30-14 2 2 46 23.0 0 1 10 10.0 0 5.6
11 GB L 13-30 9 6 66 11.0 0 0 0 - 0 6.6
12 at ATL W 20-10 4 4 31 7.8 0 0 0 - 0 3.1
13 SEA L 7-38 6 2 22 11.0 0 1 -6 -6.0 0 1.6
14 at ARI L 20-23 7 2 12 6.0 0 0 0 - 0 1.2
15 CHI W 38-17 4 3 55 18.3 2 0 0 - 0 17.5
16 NYG W 49-17 5 4 19 4.8 0 0 0 - 0 1.9
17 at GB W 20-13 2 1 8 8.0 0 0 0 - 0 0.8
WC SEA L 9-10 6 4 26 6.5 0 1 6 6.0 0 3.2

 

 

 

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The difference is Diggs was drafted in most leagues and Eli Rogers was not. I'm rolling with Eli Rogers due to the Keenan Allen injury. The potential to become Ben's #2 target provides a lot more upside over some other guys out there.

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I guess my biggest concern was that the TD he caught wasn't even intended for him but for Coates.  Had that not happened, his stat line looks like all the other WR4's and 5's out there.  We'll see what happens.

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15 minutes ago, munygon2 said:

I guess my biggest concern was that the TD he caught wasn't even intended for him but for Coates.  Had that not happened, his stat line looks like all the other WR4's and 5's out there.  We'll see what happens.

That TD was destiny. 

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I got Eli on both ppr leagues now. I'm not concern about his fluky TD I like that Ben trust him enough and he was being used will know week 2 where he stands with Wheaton coming back or not. I personally think he will become bens #2 option until bell comes back.

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4 hours ago, dave.zavala89 said:

I got Eli on both ppr leagues now. I'm not concern about his fluky TD I like that Ben trust him enough and he was being used will know week 2 where he stands with Wheaton coming back or not. I personally think he will become bens #2 option until bell comes back.

 

Bell comes back in 3 weeks, which isn't a lot of time to build chemistry and trust before some WR/TE usage gets siphoned to Bell, on top of him now having to contend with Wheaton.  I believe that Rogers didn't get a target in the 2nd half of the game, and didn't get a target between the interception and the final drive of the half when he scored the TD (Rogers got credit for the target there too but we all know it wasn't thrown to him). 

 

All I'm saying is, I'm tempering expectations.  I have high hopes, and may need to play him next week and will gladly do so vs the other week 1 wire wire options (at least in my league there aren't many), but I'm not going to buy into any of the target/touch distribution of the Steelers until Wheaton and Bell play together for a few games.  Til then it's wait and see, and hopefully we can cash in a lottery ticket.

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Eli should be great in PPR assuming his role doesn't change when bell returns. I almost stashed him before the season bc something Ben said about liking/trusting him which means a lot to me. Used my waiver pick on Sharpe dough 

Edited by 2016FantasyChamp

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I think Eli is much more a PPR league play than standard. He did catch the TD but it was a Coates target. I think his TDs will be pretty limited.

 

 I don't own him in any leagues unfortunately, as he was drafted in my main, but while I was watching some Redskins Pitt game film, the commentators said Big Ben referred to Rogers as "the best slot receiver we've had in a long time." That to me is enough to make him worth it in even 10 team PPR leagues on this Martavis-less Steelers. Think he'll get very consistent volume. 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

I think Eli is much more a PPR league play than standard. He did catch the TD but it was a Coates target. I think his TDs will be pretty limited.

 

 I don't own him in any leagues unfortunately, as he was drafted in my main, but while I was watching some Redskins Pitt game film, the commentators said Big Ben referred to Rogers as "the best slot receiver we've had in a long time." That to me is enough to make him worth it in even 10 team PPR leagues on this Martavis-less Steelers. Think he'll get very consistent volume. 

I disagree he won't have value in standard. Slot WR in good offenses are very capable of scoring 7-8 TDs. His value is higher in PPR, but look how good Emmanuel Sanders was in Pittsburgh.

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Just now, ponchsox said:

I disagree he won't have value in standard. Slot WR in good offenses are very capable of scoring 7-8 TDs. His value is higher in PPR, but look how good Emmanuel Sanders was in Pittsburgh.

 

I literally never said he wouldn't have value in standard.

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Are you guys comfy firing him away this week tho?  I think I read two conflicting news on how the CIN has a really good def player that covers the slot position, while Evans stated that Quincy Eunwa, Jets Slot guy, scored a td last week.

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28 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

I disagree he won't have value in standard. Slot WR in good offenses are very capable of scoring 7-8 TDs. His value is higher in PPR, but look how good Emmanuel Sanders was in Pittsburgh.

 

(Once again, didn't say that)

 

But, I don't think the comp to Emmanuel Sanders is fair and I think it drastically underscores Sander's athleticism. I think Sanders has a slightly better frame, but more than that, I think he's far quicker and more explosive. Pitt used Sanders as a deep threat after Wallace left, and that's simply not what I see on tape with Eli Rogers. I also don't think Eli is nearly the threat with the ball in his hands that Sanders was. Sanders returned punts if I'm not mistaken, and still might it Denver (this is all recollection, not 100%). 

 

Here are the targets to Rogers from watching film (the down field numbers are estimations within a couple yards based on my eye, the receiving yards I obviously get from actual stats):

 

3 Yards downfield, 6 yard gain. 

7 yards downfield, 20 yard gain. 

10 yards downfield, INT

4 yards downfield, 5 yard gain.

6 yards downfield, 19 yard gain. 

4 yards downfield, 6 yard gain

Leaving the TD off both because it was on the 3 yard line and because it was a Coates target

Did not have a second half target. 

 

That's less than 6 yards for an average depth of target. 

 

I think he's going to be almost exclusively an underneath runner. I don't see the skill set for a deep ball guy here, but I do think with Heath Miller gone, he'll compete for plenty of "safety blanket" routes, and I think he's good enough to do 6/60 type stats pretty consistently, so a pretty safe floor and then if he does get into the End Zone, games like last night. I still stand by my statement: value in both formats, far more in PPR formats. He is an add in even shallower PPR leagues. Emmanuel Sanders he is not. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

(Once again, didn't say that)

 

But, I don't think the comp to Emmanuel Sanders is fair and I think it drastically underscores Sander's athleticism. I think Sanders has a slightly better frame, but more than that, I think he's far quicker and more explosive. Pitt used Sanders as a deep threat after Wallace left, and that's simply not what I see on tape with Eli Rogers. I also don't think Eli is nearly the threat with the ball in his hands that Sanders was. Sanders returned punts if I'm not mistaken, and still might it Denver (this is all recollection, not 100%). 

 

Here are the targets to Rogers from watching film (the down field numbers are estimations within a couple yards based on my eye, the receiving yards I obviously get from actual stats):

 

3 Yards downfield, 6 yard gain. 

7 yards downfield, 20 yard gain. 

10 yards downfield, INT

4 yards downfield, 5 yard gain.

6 yards downfield, 19 yard gain. 

4 yards downfield, 6 yard gain

Leaving the TD off both because it was on the 3 yard line and because it was a Coates target

Did not have a second half target. 

 

That's less than 6 yards for an average depth of target. 

 

I think he's going to be almost exclusively an underneath runner. I don't see the skill set for a deep ball guy here, but I do think with Heath Miller gone, he'll compete for plenty of "safety blanket" routes, and I think he's good enough to do 6/60 type stats pretty consistently, so a pretty safe floor and then if he does get into the End Zone, games like last night. I still stand by my statement: value in both formats, far more in PPR formats. He is an add in even shallower PPR leagues. Emmanuel Sanders he is not. 

Fair enough. Good info.

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

That's less than 6 yards for an average depth of target.

 

So pretty much he's Golden Tate except playing on a much better team and you can get him 11 rounds later?

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Just now, Lord_Varys said:

 

So pretty much he's Golden Tate except playing on a much better team and you can get him 11 rounds later?

 

You must hate Golden Tate, because no, I don't agree with that assessment at all. And I think Tate is more of a deep threat than Eli too. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

You must hate Golden Tate, because no, I don't agree with that assessment at all. And I think Tate is more of a deep threat than Eli too. 

 

Yeah, kind of tongue in cheek there.  Just saying how a small average depth of target is obviously bad, but it's not the worst thing.  Different players, I know.

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Just now, Lord_Varys said:

 

Yeah, kind of tongue in cheek there.  Just saying how a small average depth of target is obviously bad, but it's not the worst thing.  Different players, I know.

 

Oh I agree, I think everyone's reading me for some reason as hating Eli. Literally came to the thread to post that I heard a good quote from the commentators via Big Ben, got accused of sayign something I didn't, and found a comp in that accusation to be a bit off base. Again, I really like Eli Rogers. My former roommate owns him in my main and I've hit him up about him as one of my post Keenan Allen depth targets. I just don't think he's got a very high ceiling is all. I think he's gonna be really steady. 

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13 hours ago, Ol Blues said:

Enunwa had 8 targets, 50+ yards and a TD from the slot last week vs the Bengals and Enunwa isn't a name that strikes fear in DCs. Stats can mislead.

 

Obviously Shaw wasn't covering him on those plays.  So yes, there will be plays that Eli doesn't have a good coverage guy on him and can take advantage of that.  Shaw is also a rookie so there's not a lot on him and maybe he just matched up well with the tall NYJ receivers.  Either way, I didn't bring it up with the thought of "this one stat is going to trump all other stats and make Eli unplayable this week", not at all.  I'm sure you know by now, but being successful in Fantasy Football involves you taking in ALL sorts of stats and numbers (as well as some luck), then making the best assessment possible.  I was simply throwing out something to consider.

 

All that being said, I don't think he blows up this week.  He might have a decent game but I'm trending toward thinking this game will be dominated by both team's run games, as both defenses are weaker against the run (PIT #26, CIN #24) than they are against the pass (PIT #10, CIN #9).  That's just my take though.

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9 hours ago, Bryce84 said:

 

Obviously Shaw wasn't covering him on those plays.  So yes, there will be plays that Eli doesn't have a good coverage guy on him and can take advantage of that.  Shaw is also a rookie so there's not a lot on him and maybe he just matched up well with the tall NYJ receivers.  Either way, I didn't bring it up with the thought of "this one stat is going to trump all other stats and make Eli unplayable this week", not at all.  I'm sure you know by now, but being successful in Fantasy Football involves you taking in ALL sorts of stats and numbers (as well as some luck), then making the best assessment possible.  I was simply throwing out something to consider.

 

All that being said, I don't think he blows up this week.  He might have a decent game but I'm trending toward thinking this game will be dominated by both team's run games, as both defenses are weaker against the run (PIT #26, CIN #24) than they are against the pass (PIT #10, CIN #9).  That's just my take though.

If you seriously believe the Steelers D is soft against the run any hope of a reasonable discussion ends. This won't be a run heavy game.

 

On the topic of this thread, however, watching last night's game may help convince you (and others) that you can't use one person or one supposed stat to make judgments. Enunwa moved all over the formation, was covered by different defenders and coverage schemes vary. Judging Rogers prospects by Jets or Bengals tendencies without inputting how much Ben has adapted to the short passing game simply errs.

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6 minutes ago, Ol Blues said:

If you seriously believe the Steelers D is soft against the run any hope of a reasonable discussion ends. This won't be a run heavy game.

 

On the topic of this thread, however, watching last night's game may help convince you (and others) that you can't use one person or one supposed stat to make judgments. Enunwa moved all over the formation, was covered by different defenders and coverage schemes vary. Judging Rogers prospects by Jets or Bengals tendencies without inputting how much Ben has adapted to the short passing game simply errs.

 

Plus I didn't realize Enunwa is BIG. He's very different than Eli. They have completely different skill sets as receivers. 

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He's definitely a good stash to pick up.. Never know, if he can become one of the top WRs to pickup.. Still a long season..  You know Pitts can score, this offense is high octane

Edited by posey_MVP

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