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Iron-cock

2016 Team Defense /ST and Kicker Thread

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

 

You know, you can make Coaches and Punters score points on fantasy. Doesn't mean you should have them in your league.

There is always the bitter grumpy old man that refuses to accept the truth.  

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7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Damn, what happened to the kingdome???? j/k.  For some reason I thought "Loud" which led me to think "Dome"

 

 

5 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

+1 for mentioning the Kingdome.

 

Caught many games in the Kingdome during my West Coast stint, was there when they imploded it. City had a party, people barbecuing, drinking beer and hanging off balconies to watch the implosion. We had a great view at a friend's. No one counted on the humongous dust cloud that would result and choke everyone back to there own homes. To this day, I still cough green and blue phlegm.  

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4 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

Last season in yahoo standard scoring leagues:

 

The difference between QB 1 and QB 10 was 98 points.

 

The difference between tight end 1 and tight end 10 was about 88 points.

 

The difference between DEF1 and DEF10 was 41 points.

 

The difference between kicker 1 and kicker 10 was 31 points.

 

Interesting that you left out the diff at the RB position. 

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Interesting that you left out the diff at the RB position. 

 

and WR, why could that be?

 

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13 hours ago, petekrum said:

 

The exception to the rule. He absolutely deserves to be the first kicker chosen,....in the last round.

 

Why would I take Gostkowki in the last round when he will never ever ever ever be available there.  In a 15 round draft I have been trying to take him in the 13th round before my defense and whatever scrap player that's left to fill my bench.  If he isn't available then I take my kicker last.

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17 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

A look at the top 10 kickers from last season.  After their name, I've listed the rank of the offense they played for by points per game.

 

1. Gost-3rd
2. Gano-1st 
3. Walsh-16th (dome)
4. Gould-23rd 
5. Brown-6th 
6. Santos-9th 
7. Hauschka-4th (dome)
8. Tucker-25th 
9. Catanzaro-2nd (retractable roof)
10 McManus-19th

 

Observations:

 

6 of the top 10 played for top 10 offenses.

 

All of the top 10 kickers played with starting quarterbacks that were selected in the first round except Gost (Brady) and Hauschka (Wilson).

 

Only 3 played for dome/ret roof teams.

 

The Saints played the most indoor games in 2015 at 12/16, the Rams and Falcons second with 10/16.  None had a kicker in the top 10.

 

 

 

 

So basically half the top fantasy kickers played on good offenses, and the other half played on bad ones?  And playing indoors has little effect on a kickers fantasy value?  

 

Cliff notes: nobody knows who will be a good fantasy kicker this year, and it's a total crap shoot.

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22 minutes ago, handy_andy86 said:

 

So basically half the top fantasy kickers played on good offenses, and the other half played on bad ones?  And playing indoors has little effect on a kickers fantasy value?  

 

Cliff notes: nobody knows who will be a good fantasy kicker this year, and it's a total crap shoot.

 

And there's a pretty good chance you can guess half of the top 12 kickers without doing much research.  At least that's what we're trying to find out.

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

And there's a pretty good chance you can guess half of the top 12 kickers without doing much research.  At least that's what we're trying to find out.

If you guessed completely at random you'd get 4.5 of the top 12 on average

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I still don't get the hate over kickers yet still like TEs and defenses.

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41 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Too many words about kickers.

Someone has to stand up to defend the little man.  

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42 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I still don't get the hate over kickers yet still like TEs and defenses.

TE fantasy value is tied to TE receiving ability (something the TE can control)

DST fantasy value is tied to DST turnover creation ability (something the DST can control)

K fantasy value is tied to...number of times the kicker's team can get into FG range without scoring a TD (something completely out of the kicker's control)

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8 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

TE fantasy value is tied to TE receiving ability (something the TE can control)

DST fantasy value is tied to DST turnover creation ability (something the DST can control)

K fantasy value is tied to...number of times the kicker's team can get into FG range without scoring a TD (something completely out of the kicker's control)

 

Dont make sense. AT ALL.

 

If you think like this, TE shouldnt be able to score on fantasy, because they need a QB to throw the ball. Same to WR. Thats out of their control.

RB need OL to block and open gaps for him to run. OL blocking ability is not up to him. He does not control that.

 

TE score on fantasy because he need to run his routes, have soft hands and stuff. If he dont do/have that, doesnt matter what QB is throwing to him, he will fail on this. Wont catch any pass, wont score any TD. Same to WR. RB need to have gap vision, be elusive, know how to carry a football, same example.

 

A K have to know how to properly kick, do his job, just like the above, or he will fail. Doesnt matter if he is on the 10yd or 50yd. His team WILL help him get into his range, no doubts. But once the holder puts the ball on the turf, its all up to the K. Just like when the QB puts the ball on the air, is all up to the TE.

 

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2 minutes ago, Huk said:

 

Dont make sense. AT ALL.

 

If you think like this, TE shouldnt be able to score on fantasy, because they need a QB to throw the ball. Same to WR. Thats out of their control.

RB need OL to block and open gaps for him to run. OL blocking ability is not up to him. He does not control that.

 

TE score on fantasy because he need to run his routes, have soft hands and stuff. If he dont do/have that, doesnt matter what QB is throwing to him, he will fail on this. Wont catch any pass, wont score any TD. Same to WR. RB need to have gap vision, be elusive, know how to carry a football, same example.

 

A K have to know how to properly kick, do his job, just like the above, or he will fail. Doesnt matter if he is on the 10yd or 50yd. His team WILL help him get into his range, no doubts. But once the holder puts the ball on the turf, its all up to the K. Just like when the QB puts the ball on the air, is all up to the TE.

 

Amen brotha.  It's a TEAM game.

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1 minute ago, Huk said:

 

Dont make sense. AT ALL.

 

If you think like this, TE shouldnt be able to score on fantasy, because they need a QB to throw the ball. Same to WR. Thats out of their control.

RB need OL to block and open gaps for him to run. OL blocking ability is not up to him. He does not control that.

 

TE score on fantasy because he need to run his routes, have soft hands and stuff. If he dont do/have that, doesnt matter what QB is throwing to him, he will fail on this. Wont catch any pass, wont score any TD. Same to WR. RB need to have gap vision, be elusive, know how to carry a football, same example.

 

A K have to know how to properly kick, do his job, just like the above, or he will fail. Doesnt matter if he is on the 10yd or 50yd. His team WILL help him get into his range, no doubts. But once the holder puts the ball on the turf, its all up to the K. Just like when the QB puts the ball on the air, is all up to the TE.

 

Difference being that all kickers hit at almost the same rate from the various differences, unlike TEs.

In fantasy, the best TEs are the best at real world pass catching. The best TEs are usually also the best fantasy tight ends. That's simply not true of kickers. The proof is that attempts per game correlates way better to fantasy points per game than percentage does.

A kicker's fantasy value is 99% team, 1% skill.

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3 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Amen brotha.  It's a TEAM game.

I think you've forgotten what a team is....it's a collection of individuals.

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2 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I think you've forgotten what a team is....it's a collection of individuals.

:blink:

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8 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Difference being that all kickers hit at almost the same rate from the various differences, unlike TEs.

In fantasy, the best TEs are the best at real world pass catching. The best TEs are usually also the best fantasy tight ends. That's simply not true of kickers. The proof is that attempts per game correlates way better to fantasy points per game than percentage does.

A kicker's fantasy value is 99% team, 1% skill.

Just like targets per game to a TE correlates in more fantasy points to them.

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4 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Difference being that all kickers hit at almost the same rate from the various differences, unlike TEs.

In fantasy, the best TEs are the best at real world pass catching. The best TEs are usually also the best fantasy tight ends. That's simply not true of kickers. The proof is that attempts per game correlates way better to fantasy points per game than percentage does.

A kicker's fantasy value is 99% team, 1% skill.

 

After the first few TEs there is very little difference just like there is with with kickers and defenses.  I think that's the biggest complaint with kickers, right?  I also disagree with that percentage.  There are kickers that are very accurate and there are kickers that have great strength and then there are kickers that are great at both.  Many leagues give more points for longer FGs so that makes a difference.  One of the biggest reasons people take Janikowski.  I the the percentage is closer to 70%/30%.  The more skilled the kicker the more opportunities he's going to have to kick since the offense will give him the chance instead of going for it. 

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Just now, Huk said:

Just like targets per game to a TE correlates in more fantasy points to them.

1. The number one factor in a TE getting targets is getting open (a skill)

2. It has nowhere near the correlation to fantasy points per game that field goal attempts does

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20 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

I don't give a darn how long you've been playing, making a statement like "11% of my lineup is meaningless" shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how the game works.

 

Amen

 

If you're in a deep league, your Kicker can put up more reliable points than a FLEX or even a RB. Especially when bye weeks hit.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

After the first few TEs there is very little difference just like there is with with kickers and defenses.  I think that's the biggest complaint with kickers, right?  I also disagree with that percentage.  There are kickers that are very accurate and there are kickers that have great strength and then there are kickers that are great at both.  Many leagues give more points for longer FGs so that makes a difference.  One of the biggest reasons people take Janikowski.  I the the percentage is closer to 70%/30%.  The more skilled the kicker the more opportunities he's going to have to kick since the offense will give him the chance instead of going for it.

I'll respond to the italicized part first:

Janikowski has never been a good fantasy kicker. So that example is just more proof of my point...people mistakenly draft him thinking that being a good real life kicker will make him a good fantasy kicker, when it fact it hasn't, because opportunity is 100x more important than skill.

Now to the bolded part:

The problem with this reasoning is that all NFL kickers are very very good. We're dealing with only the very tip of the iceberg here; the far far right of a bell curve. The very best kicker extends FG range by AT MOST 5-6 yards over the very worst kicker. So IF a drive HAPPENS to stall between the 35-40 yard lines (a 5 yard area), then (and only then) would the very best get an opportunity advantage over the very worst.

And now to the rest:

I agree that there are some kickers who are more skilled than others. The problem is that skill difference doesn't drive a difference in fantasy value.

Since many leagues give bonuses for distance, that just adds more of a team factor, not more of a kicker factor. Now we're giving 4 points for a drive stalling between the 23 and the 33 and 5 if it stalls between the 33 and the 40 (out of the kicker's control)

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23 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I'll respond to the italicized part first:

Janikowski has never been a good fantasy kicker. So that example is just more proof of my point...people mistakenly draft him thinking that being a good real life kicker will make him a good fantasy kicker, when it fact it hasn't, because opportunity is 100x more important than skill.

Now to the bolded part:

The problem with this reasoning is that all NFL kickers are very very good. We're dealing with only the very tip of the iceberg here; the far far right of a bell curve. The very best kicker extends FG range by AT MOST 5-6 yards over the very worst kicker. So IF a drive HAPPENS to stall between the 35-40 yard lines (a 5 yard area), then (and only then) would the very best get an opportunity advantage over the very worst.

And now to the rest:

I agree that there are some kickers who are more skilled than others. The problem is that skill difference doesn't drive a difference in fantasy value.

Since many leagues give bonuses for distance, that just adds more of a team factor, not more of a kicker factor. Now we're giving 4 points for a drive stalling between the 23 and the 33 and 5 if it stalls between the 33 and the 40 (out of the kicker's control)

 

Good points.  Lets compare this to TEs now.  After the top few guys how are you determining which to take?  They are most likely all going to end up within 30 points of each other it seems.  One of those guys may make it into the top 5 but the number 5 TE really isn't putting up a ton of points.

 

To me a TE is just as plug n' play as a kicker or defense is.  I'm not saying I want to get rid of any of them but I just find it funny how some feel they are so much different and that kickers should be banished while keeping the other two.  This obviously changes in leagues where TE scoring is bolstered though.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Good points.  Lets compare this to TEs now.  After the top few guys how are you determining which to take?  They are most likely all going to end up within 30 points of each other it seems.  One of those guys may make it into the top 5 but the number 5 TE really isn't putting up a ton of points.

 

To me a TE is just as plug n' play as a kicker or defense is.  I'm not saying I want to get rid of any of them but I just find it funny how some feel they are so much different and that kickers should be banished while keeping the other two.  This obviously changes in leagues where TE scoring is bolstered though.

The difference with tight ends is that it's after the first few that they're all the same. For kickers it's that way from the very top.

Also, tight ends after the top are similar because of their skillsets. Kickers are similar because skill is insignificant.

Imagine a scenario where a freak TE like Gronk could have relatively little value because randomness plays such a big role. That's the K position. TE may be hard to predict, but the cream of the crop (Gronk) rises to the top. That doesn't happen at K.

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1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

The difference with tight ends is that it's after the first few that they're all the same. For kickers it's that way from the very top.

Also, tight ends after the top are similar because of their skillsets. Kickers are similar because skill is insignificant.

Imagine a scenario where a freak TE like Gronk could have relatively little value because randomness plays such a big role. That's the K position. TE may be hard to predict, but the cream of the crop (Gronk) rises to the top. That doesn't happen at K.

 

For kickers it's Gostkowski, then they're all the same.  So TEs have two or three more guys that are difference makers and then they're all the same.  I really don't think there is ever a clear cut difference making defense.

 

You keep on thinking about the positions as skill sets and what they mean to football.  I'm strictly talking about what they bring to fantasy football and being difference makers for your fantasy team.  TEs, kickers and defenses are all very similar and I think they should all be picked at the end of the draft.  I don't see a guy like Gary Barnidge being a huge difference maker for a team yet he's going in front of WRs and RBs that have more upside if they are just given the chance.

 

One of these years I think it's going to catch on and TEs will start dropping in drafts just like it happened to QBs.  Right now people draft them earlier just because they freak out and think they need to have a starting TE before the top 10 are gone.  In reality there isn't a huge difference between that 8th TE and the 14th TE.  Unless you're taking one of the top 3 TEs in the first few rounds then I see no reason to take one until the last 4 rounds.

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