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David447

How would you beat Autodrafter?

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Take the best FF Players known to man--and woman--and put them in a league. Not against each other but against 9 bots just using autopick. Could they beat the computer more than 10% of the time?

 

I realize any decent owner would pull away via the ww if the bots were left just to their own rosters. But assuming they came up with a program to allow the computer to make mostly logical ww choices each week, could the experts beat 9--or 11--Autodrafters?

 

My contention as I've told many is the experts would lose at least 9 out of 10 just because at least two, and probably four of the AD's would inevitably draft a powerhouse.

 

Could you beat 9 Autodrafters? And how?

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9 autopick ESPN bots, I'd take myself every time given those rankings, but that being said I might be missing something with this "autodrafters" thing.

 

I mean yeah, if all 9-11 of them are that good as you say, you will be dealing with a lot of good pickups being added the instant they become relevant (injuries happen and those teams will add every possible beneficiary, probably before you even find out about it), extreme accuracy and intelligence with waiver use, mutually beneficial trades between bots left and right, etc.

 

I guess the way to counter it making preemptive moves and stashes and beating the bots to the punch, but if what you describe can be put together, that would be a very tall order.

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My theory is a skilled fantasy football player will always have an advantage over auto-drafting since the player has access to more information than the auto-draft program, which is run off of projections, adp, and recent mocks, as far as I know.  Then again, the auto-draft program has access to mock draft information that the player does not have, which might reflect the other information that the player has access to.  Interesting query.  

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the same way you beat regular players frequently...with deph. the autobots will take qbs, tes, d/sts, and kickers early. abuse that. also, they will follow the site's ranking allowing you to pilfer the undervalued players at cheap cost. if you say they are programmed to not do those things then you start boarding on a bot that plays more like a regular player or even better than most players. 

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3 minutes ago, ComericanPie said:

9 autopick ESPN bots, I'd take myself every time given those rankings, but that being said I might be missing something with this "autodrafters" thing.

 

I mean yeah, if all 9-11 of them are that good as you say, you will be dealing with a lot of good pickups being added the instant they become relevant (injuries happen and those teams will add every possible beneficiary, probably before you even find out about it), extreme accuracy and intelligence with waiver use, mutually beneficial trades between bots left and right, etc.

 

I guess the way to counter it making preemptive moves and stashes and beating the bots to the punch, but if what you describe can be put together, that would be a very tall order.

 

That would be hilarious, especially if you put the settings for approving trades to a league vote...I bet the other bots would be ruthlessly voting down every single trade.

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I may try to set this up this weekend. Me vs 11 autodrafters just to see if its as hard to win as I think it will be.

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5 minutes ago, ccimore said:

Does fantasy pros. draft wizard not simulate a situation like this?

no idea

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Too bad Skyllzone went out of business this year--they had these exact games for the last two seasons.

 

You drafted against 9 computer players--a draft took about 10 minutes--on a weekly basis (draft a fresh team each week).  If you won, you got $10, 2nd place would earn you points to draft more teams (otherwise you were limited to drafting 1 team per day and 5 teams per week).  I made a couple hundred off them, but then they folded up in the offseason this year and cashed out everyone's account.  Last year I did 58 drafts, won 12 and finished 2nd in 7 more.

 

There wasn't any particular "strategy" to it, other than just drafting the best players for the upcoming week's matchups.  Sometimes it worked out, and sometimes it didn't.

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that's a good percentage of wins...maybe that's why they closed shop. Between 20-30% is higher than I would  expect.

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3 hours ago, ccimore said:

My theory is a skilled fantasy football player will always have an advantage over auto-drafting since the player has access to more information than the auto-draft program, which is run off of projections, adp, and recent mocks, as far as I know.

 

I'm pretty sure auto-drafters just run off of internal rankings with an algorithm that picks positions they "need" based on what they drafted earlier.

 

In a yahoo pro 20 auction draft last night, one guy left early and the auto drafter grabbed tony romo for him...

 

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Going against auto drafts would be pretty easy.  I've seen way too many times an auto draft take 3 or 4 QBs and 3 TEs or even 2 kickers and defenses.  They may drive up the price on some great players but over paying against the CPU doesn't hurt you.  You can still grab tons of value later in the draft.

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the game is luck so I believe you probably would lose

 

we all must have seen in past seasons when your team was going against an inactive owner who has (couple of players on byes) lose. I know I have been a victim more than once . 

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4 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

the game is luck so I believe you probably would lose

 

we all must have seen in past seasons when your team was going against an inactive owner who has (couple of players on byes) lose. I know I have been a victim more than once . 

 

That's too bad.  I can't recall ever losing to a team that had multiple people on byes.  I know it can happen but if you are managing your team it should rarely happen.

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22 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

the game is luck so I believe you probably would lose

 

we all must have seen in past seasons when your team was going against an inactive owner who has (couple of players on byes) lose. I know I have been a victim more than once . 

 

This is exactly what I think. I don't think winning FF is ALL luck. It does take some skill...usually. But mathematically, against 9 bots, some of those 9 are going to accidentally draft well. Every time a bot takes a K or a D or an injured player, it should theoretically push better players not just to you but the other 8 teams as well. Also, if you have a late spot, there is no way in heck you are getting a chance at the top players. The bots will relentlessly take the best ranked players unlike human opponents. And yes, I have lost against inactives who had no QB or K or D. Very embarrassing lol, but it happens.

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I would win roughly 62% of the time in a 10 team league with 9 auto drafters.

 

FF is like poker. All the guppies claim "it's all luck" while the sharks just sit back year after year raking in the moolah.

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5 hours ago, David447 said:

My contention as I've told many is the experts would lose at least 9 out of 10 just because at least two, and probably four of the AD's would inevitably draft a powerhouse.

 

Could you beat 9 Autodrafters? And how?

you could use the autodraft option against them.

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OK, held the draft...it went really quick lol, with the bots going instant...I drafted 10th, and of course no one fell! shocking I know. This wasn't one of my better drafts.

Rivers

L Bell

Langford

Arob

K Allen

Olsen

Flex-Moncrief

Car D

Crosby

 

Bench...Dwill(getting Bell's backup was guaranteed ofc, one of the nice things about going against Autodraft), Blount, Marvin Jones, Crowell, T Benjamin, C Michael, M Bennett.

 

Notes: first time I've taken Bell in any league, but with being assured of getting Dwill it was a safe play. The draft went really quick. I probably should have let one of the bots run the clock instead of clicking autodraft on all of them. No bot took an extra K, or an extra D. Romo and Bridgewater weren't picked. ESPN must update their program pretty regularly.

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Draft would be different than an auction, of course, but I actually think you could beat them rather easily in an auction format.  The thing is, you know how they all value every player... in an auction, find the players you value more by $1 than the base rankings, and boom - there's your team. 

 

What you previously described though was auto league management... if you're playing against a standard ESPN or Yahoo bot, I'd trust myself to get the jump on them on pickups and such (knowing via twitter or message boards news before the bots did).  If you're playing against a league full of Watson-type bots that can literally monitor the entire internet for news and act upon it immediately -- well, then you're probably screwed.

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Here is a team that looks really good:

Brees, AP, Ingram, Evans, TY, Kelce, Landry, Ari D, Catanzaro K...bench, Matt Jones, D Henry, Powell, Ajayi, Sharpe, Booker, Carr

 

And a team that looks really bad:

Brady, DJ, CJA, Tate, E Sanders, Gronk, Flex-Reed, Broncos D, Vinatieri...bench, Yeldon, K White, Torrey Smith, Sims, C Coleman, Tyler Boyd, Zach Miller

 

There are actually several good teams.

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5 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Draft would be different than an auction, of course, but I actually think you could beat them rather easily in an auction format.  The thing is, you know how they all value every player... in an auction, find the players you value more by $1 than the base rankings, and boom - there's your team. 

 

What you previously described though was auto league management... if you're playing against a standard ESPN or Yahoo bot, I'd trust myself to get the jump on them on pickups and such (knowing via twitter or message boards news before the bots did).  If you're playing against a league full of Watson-type bots that can literally monitor the entire internet for news and act upon it immediately -- well, then you're probably screwed.

 

I'm not a programmer, but I'm sure what you described at the end is possible. The truth is I'm probably screwed anyway. I'm not going to mess with the other teams too much. I will probably get someone on the forums to suggest reasonable moves in their stead. In the case of the team with Brady at the starting QB I'm going to bench him, drop their last drafted player--not their K or D, and pick up the highest ranked QB by the computer projections. If someone is out or suspended--looking at you Josh Gordon--Ill make a move for them, but it will be strictly computer based as much as possible. Not sure how it would go in an auction format. I don't have much experience with those. But I would hate to be 'tricking' the computer lol...if that were even possible. The snake draft is very punishing because even though you can reach and get Dwill for example, EVERY single player ranked ahead of him will be gone by the time it comes back around to you.

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29 minutes ago, psygolf said:

you could use the autodraft option against them.

I tried but it isn't as cut and dried as you think. The bots take some players they shouldn't, its true. But no one falls. And when you reach to take someone you like a little early, the flip side is all the players above that guy are gone.

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If no one falls in a computer draft, it should be fairly easy to build a better stable of rbs & wrs while they are drafting QBs & TEs.  

 

The draft should play right into the hands of a veteran who waits on those positions.

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36 minutes ago, Roto4500 said:

I would win roughly 62% of the time in a 10 team league with 9 auto drafters.

 

FF is like poker. All the guppies claim "it's all luck" while the sharks just sit back year after year raking in the moolah.

 

No offense, but I would take that bet if there was a way to test it out without setting up 100 leagues just for you to play this season, lol. It would probably take a thousand to get your true win rate though via a meaningful sample.

 

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Not sure why this is even a topic around here, but I have long advocated to those who complain about their draft position & drafts to autodraft.

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