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David447

How would you beat Autodrafter?

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6 minutes ago, David447 said:

 

No offense, but I would take that bet if there was a way to test it out without setting up 100 leagues just for you to play this season, lol. It would probably take a thousand to get your true win rate though via a meaningful sample.

 

Same here. 

 

Also comparing FF to poker in terms of luck and skill is not accurate imho. In FF, your players either put up or they don't. In poker, you can win hands without ever showing your cards. 

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5 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Not sure why this is even a topic around here, but I have long advocated to those who complain about their draft position & drafts to autodraft.

 

I have given that same advice before and been told its bad advice lol. People wont autodraft bc they are afraid of getting stuck with players on susp or injured etc, but also bc it makes them look bad in front of their friends and coworkers. I even printed out cheat sheets for people to use, and every single time the new guy never went by it.

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4 minutes ago, tjspark said:

Same here. 

 

Also comparing FF to poker in terms of luck and skill is not accurate imho. In FF, your players either put up or they don't. In poker, you can win hands without ever showing your cards. 

 

I prefer to compare FF to stock picking/investing. The trend is your friend.

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9 minutes ago, David447 said:

 

I have given that same advice before and been told its bad advice lol. People wont autodraft bc they are afraid of getting stuck with players on susp or injured etc, but also bc it makes them look bad in front of their friends and coworkers. I even printed out cheat sheets for people to use, and every single time the new guy never went by it.

 

If you auto pick against 9 or 11 live drafters you're gonna get your a**  handed to you. Every league I've done where someone didn't show and got autodrafted, that guy ended up getting crushed in the league.

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Fantasy sports isn't all just luck, or else you wouldn't see the same people in your leagues at the top every season.  I took a long break from fantasy sports, but since I've been back to it over the last couple years I haven't done any worse than the semi-finals in any fantasy sports league, and I'm not saying that to brag, but that can't be luck.  

 

Also it would depend a lot on your "autopick bots" and how smart they were. If you're talking the standard ESPN autopick as it is now, then any decent owner should be able to win quite often - one owner in my money league autopicked and got 5 RBs in the first 7 rounds, and didn't take a WR until Round 8.  His starting WRs are Kevin White, Torrey Smith, and Steve Smith.  It's a very simple/dumb algorithm that just takes the highest ranked player, and seems to take position into account only minimally - as in I think it would draft you all RBs until you hit your roster maximum, if every time your turn came around a RB was the top ranked player.  So you'd just have a lot of teams loaded at some positions, and razor thin in others.

 

Finally, if the scenario is how you said in the OP, where it's over the course of a full season, that is the real difference maker.  Every year we spend so much time and effort to draft our teams, but in the end the teams that win are usually the ones that win on the wire.  My teams aren't consistently good because of drafting, it's because you can make up a lot of ground with good management.  I don't think any bot or program could out-maneuvre a good owner that is adding players, because that program would have to see some statistical reason to add the player.  If a bot needs to see good numbers to add, a good owner would have already snagged that player before he hit the field (like a backup RB whose starter got injured, etc).

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8 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

If you auto pick against 9 or 11 live drafters you're gonna get your a**  handed to you. Every league I've done where someone didn't show and got autodrafted, that guy ended up getting crushed in the league.

 

This.  If one autodrafter can't hang with 11 live drafters, then how would 11 autodrafters fare any better?  You'd have an algorithm that's much more sophisticated than what they currently use.

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44 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

If you auto pick against 9 or 11 live drafters you're gonna get your a**  handed to you. Every league I've done where someone didn't show and got autodrafted, that guy ended up getting crushed in the league.

I had an autodrafter that almost went undefeated in a work league (until he met up with someone, wink) ...I'd consider that a bit of a blanket statement, Pete.  Even a computer can stumble across nugget or two.

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But if I'm near either end and I know which players off a communal ranking list the teams around me will be drafting, I'd consider that a huge advantage everytime.

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7 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I had an autodrafter that almost went undefeated in a work league (until he met up with someone, wink) ...I'd consider that a bit of a blanket statement, Pete.  Even a computer can stumble across nugget or two.

 

sounds like a competitive league!

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6 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

 

sounds like a competitive league!

How so?

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11 minutes ago, psygolf said:

But if I'm near either end and I know which players off a communal ranking list the teams around me will be drafting, I'd consider that a huge advantage everytime.

 

I've seen some very good ghostships over the years.  

 

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14 minutes ago, psygolf said:

But if I'm near either end and I know which players off a communal ranking list the teams around me will be drafting, I'd consider that a huge advantage everytime.

Exactly. Auto draft is predictable in a way that humans aren't. The computer never reaches and always just fills the highest ranked opening, for the most part. So you can be sure a guy that is 1-2 rounds down will still almost certainly be there if you're picking vs. computers. Whereas with humans theres a better chance that guy will be gone, so you have to decide whether to reach. 

Autodraft also doesn't take injuries into account unless they've already been factored properly by the rankings, which they often aren't. So you end up with a lot of injured and suspended guys getting auto drafted too. 

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Just now, Iron-cock said:

 

I've seen some very good ghostships over the years.  

 

I'm just saying it makes it much easier to draft the guys on "my hit list" if I already know that everyone else will be going straight down another that I can see.

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22 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I had an autodrafter that almost went undefeated in a work league (until he met up with someone, wink) ...I'd consider that a bit of a blanket statement, Pete.  Even a computer can stumble across nugget or two.

 

I'm sure you're right, but I can only speak to my own experience. Might be they were just bad owners, but all  autos in the leagues I've been in have gotten dust ed. 

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12 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

I'm sure you're right, but I can only speak to my own experience. Might be they were just bad owners, but all  autos in the leagues I've been in have gotten dust ed. 

 

I really only see them in public leagues, but it's not hard to figure out how an autodrafted team could win a few games.  

 

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Also, I'll add in that a buddy of mine won his work league with a team that the computer autodrafted for him.  The autodraft was so bad he ended up cutting like 2-3 players right after.

 

 

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2 hours ago, petekrum said:

 

If you auto pick against 9 or 11 live drafters you're gonna get your a**  handed to you. Every league I've done where someone didn't show and got autodrafted, that guy ended up getting crushed in the league.

 

I agree with that. But a brand new player who only knows the 'top names' will be lost and bewildered after round 3 most of the time. They can at least use the cheat sheet as a guide, but they never do lol.

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2 hours ago, handy_andy86 said:

Fantasy sports isn't all just luck, or else you wouldn't see the same people in your leagues at the top every season.  I took a long break from fantasy sports, but since I've been back to it over the last couple years I haven't done any worse than the semi-finals in any fantasy sports league, and I'm not saying that to brag, but that can't be luck.  

 

Also it would depend a lot on your "autopick bots" and how smart they were. If you're talking the standard ESPN autopick as it is now, then any decent owner should be able to win quite often...

 

That you make it to the playoffs every year probably isn't luck. If you win it most years, there is some luck involved at that point, because each playoff game is basically a coin flip. Even if your team is clearly better in the playoffs your odds cant be better than 60/40 at best.

 

As for the autopick bots I think the ESPN autodrafters came up with a few good teams. Again, I think that was random chance. Its inevitable that a few of the bots will wind up with stacked teams after the draft. That is why I think the best FF players have at best a 20% chance to win. Clearly the ESPN autodraft teams would need some impartial assistance to compete with me--or anyone on this board-- over the course of a long season, since we will wear them out on the ww and they will proceed as if there is no ww.

 

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Just wanted to show how one of the Autodrafters wound up with a pretty stacked team that could compete in any league, imo.

Brees

AP

Ingram

M Evans

TY

Landry

Kelce

Cards D

Catanzaro

 

bench...Matt Jones, Henry, Powell, Ajayi, Sharpe, Booker, Carr.

 

I was thinking of listing the entire draft just to show how good some of the teams were, vs a few that really stink, but that is just too much trouble. The trend I noticed was all the bot teams that went RB RB early wound up with what I think most of us would consider very good teams--like this one--and the teams that went WR WR  looked poor because they would often wind up with 7 or more WRs total compared to 3 or 4 RBs. In other words they never adjusted for the fact they already had good WRs at the top of their draft and thus needed to stack RBs in mid.

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You guys are conflating multiple ideas here.

 

The topic starter did not differentiate between what autodraft bots actually meant, but did guide us to a more superior A.I. then what we deal with in our current leagues.

 

Of course, in our current leagues and rankings, auto draft bots have almost no chance. They will be betrayed by the poor ranking systems and left for dead for the entire year.

 

I believe the threat starter was discussing a more superior A.I. where the rankings aren't as bad as common ADP rankings, and where the bots actively make trades/moves/roster changes. This would be incredibly hard to win at. These bots would be far superior than any human fantasy player. The only way to beat them would be to simply get fantasy lucky.

 

These bots would freely trade with each other until all teams are somewhat equal and highly competitive. The best trades (the meaning of trade) is one in which both teams become better, thus, the bots would be programmed to continually find ways to make their team stronger. The free agent wire would be scavenged with random pick ups (probably names the human player hasn't even heard of).

 

The bot would have instant access of playing the players that are in the starting line ups / playing in the game while the human player would have to dedicate time everyday to filling out line ups (important in fantasy baseball).

 

Etc.

 

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Of the bots used bad rankings (ESPN/NFL.com), easily. But if they are using good rankings, don't see how a human could gain any appreciable advantage.

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On September 28, 2016 at 0:04 AM, CrypTviLL said:

 

I believe the threat starter was discussing a more superior A.I. where the rankings aren't as bad as common ADP rankings, and where the bots actively make trades/moves/roster changes. This would be incredibly hard to win at. These bots would be far superior than any human fantasy player. The only way to beat them would be to simply get fantasy lucky.

 

How would a bot interpret a football game better than a human?

 

I doubt you could create a bot that drafts/sets lineups/makes ww pickups better than an above average fantasy player. 

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1 hour ago, Iron-cock said:

 

How would a bot interpret a football game better than a human?

 

I doubt you could create a bot that drafts/sets lineups/makes ww pickups better than an above average fantasy player. 

 

Oh, it's certaintly possible. Bot's have defeated the best chess players on the planet, and beat humans at jeopardy. These examples are even outdated.

 

In fact, the setting lineup / ww pickups are actually the easiest part of the game for the bots. It would all be automated and a rather advanced (but relatively simple) coding structure to ensure 'smart' waiver wire pick ups and making sure line ups are filled with active players when need be. Drafts would be dependent on input of player projections/statistics. 

 

There's no real reason to go through the effort to create a bot like this, but I could easily see it feasible with today's technology. 

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45 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:


Oh, it's certainly possible. Bot's have defeated the best chess players on the planet, and beat humans at jeopardy.

 

It's certainly not.  Chess is a partially solved game, and probably will be solved at some point.  There is a huge difference between teaching a computer a "solvable" game and predicting future events in the real world (ie a football game).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game

 

Simply put, Chess has a finite amount of moves and set rules.  There are a near infinite amount of things that can effect player performance, far too much to account for.

 

CryptViLL Wrote: In fact, the setting lineup / ww pickups are actually the easiest part of the game for the bots. It would all be automated and a rather advanced (but relatively simple) coding structure to ensure 'smart' waiver wire pick ups and making sure line ups are filled with active players when need be.[/quote]

 

"Smart" waiver wire pickups would be based on projections, projections for football are often inaccurate (and made by humans!).    You can draft based on an algorithm (ie: VBD) but that won't necessarily outperform a human.   

 

If you poured enough resources into it, you could probably come up with something workable but I doubt anyone will spend that kind of time/money on fantasy football.  

 

I think you're underestimating the scope of what it would take to create a very good bot.  A crappy one that drafts based on VBD and a few rules, along with doing adds/drops based on projections could be created by one person and it would be trivial (I could do it!).  A bot that actually has an advantage against (good) human owners is a non-trivial undertaking.

 

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