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Serge Ibaka 2016-2017 Season Outlook

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Projections for the big man taking over in Orlando?

 

Orlando loaded with Vuc, Ibaka, Biyombo.

 

Ibaka had a slightly down year with respect to projections last year.

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I'm staying away; too many mouths to feed in Orlando. They obviously didn't bring him in for no reason, but the same can be said for Biyombo. And of course Vuc will still see plenty of minutes and touches.

 

Someone will overdraft him in your league.

Edited by WFK

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I'm not too worried about his volume of touches, but he's going from one of the best offenses in the league to one that will not be defined as such. He's going to have the continue shooting threes, meaning the FG% and oreb will stay relatively depressed, and his blk% declined in four straight seasons. I'm content letting others take him in the 30s.

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I think Ibaka is ranked right where he should be. 30th in ESPN, 25th in Yahoo!

The fear is that between Ibaka, Vuc and Biyombo, some one is going to be left out. Thing is, I think of the three, Ibaka is the safest. Why? The Magic have next to no offense. Between Vuc, Fournier and Ibaka,my here's a dramatic drop off to consistent scoring. Perhaps Gordon or Mario develop, but as of now, Ibaka will be second or third option in this team.

 

Second reason is defense. This is a strong defense front line. Except Vucecic. He can't defend. He's slow. And Vogel is known as a defensive minded coach. And with the landscape of the NBA turning to quick guard play, Vuc could be on the outside looking in when you need an athletic defender. I think Vuc is actually going to be traded at some point this season. His contract is extremely attractive and with the off season signings, he seems to be the odd man out. 

 

I know Ibaka had a down year last year, but look who he was sharing the court with! He had Westbrook and Durant, who each had 30% usage rates each. Ibaka had a 17.5% usage rate, which was decreased from the two previous years of nearly 19%. Expect his usage number to increase in Orlando, because the Magic will depend on it.

 

Finally, I know Vogel has a nice track record with big men. He made Roy Hibbert relevant, even excel in his system. Ian Mahimi and Myles Turner looked promising in the Pacer system this past season. So what can Vogel do with an athletic 26-year Center who can excel at shot blocking and blocking the lane?

 

I can see Ibaka going in the mid to late 3rd round, but getting a top 15 player in return.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull his 2013-14 stat line back out, maybe less one board per game.

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If he returns even second round value id be surprised. As someone who's owned ibaka the past couple of years in dynasty I can effectively say that he's just been declining for years now and it doesn't have anything to do with Westbrook and Durant. Both of those guys had been off and on again injured and his game didn't improve. 

 

What made him valuable was his blocks and those have declined every single year. The more he started shooting 3's his efficiency went down so that hurt his value. He doesn't rebound well for a PF, and he's not that good of an offensive player. I'm not sure why people think that even on his current team he's all of a sudden going to average 15+ points a game! Has anybody watched him consistently? He's got a great midrange shot an ok 3pt shot and that's about it. 

 

So so where does that leave him? I'd bet somewhere between last year's stats and the year before which would be around the 50 mark. 

 

Only way I see him putting up better is if his decline was indeed a confidence or psychological issue the past few years which he seems to suggest it was, rather than a decline in his game.

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i think his decline is due to how he was used. I know he's always been Westy and Durant, but the last two years you've seen a dramatically different Ibaka. I don't know much about Scott Brooks, before Donovan came to town, but i had him on my fantasy team last year and was disappointed, too.

 

i think seems he was more of a wing player than a down low player. You're right, he's not a good rebounder for a PF (and with Vuc and Biyombo, I don't see any uptick in his rebounds). But it seemed he was this 3-point has a direct correlation in his play. He went from 15.1 points per game (so, he's capable of scoring 15+) and 3 blocks per game down to 12.6/2. During this same period, his 3pt attempts went up 300%, his 2pt attempts down 40% and his dunks went down by half. There was a major shift in strategy and usage for Ibaka. When I saw him last year, part of the frustration was that he was disengaged in the offense and looked more like a tall 3-pt decoy to open up the lane for Durant or Westbrook.

 

i think Ibaka just needs a change of scenery and more than a big with 3-point range. I think that's the risk in Ibaka. How will he be used in Orlando? I trust Vogel will use him as a more of a traditional PF, considering his track record. I'm buying.

Edited by JonBoy418

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During the summer Ibaka was someone I was keying in on as a bounceback guy that might slip in drafts, but as the season nears it seems like people are almost overvaluing him.  This could be due to his lofty Yahoo rank or the very optimistic Roto blurbs but I can't take him late-2nd, early-3rd because I don't know that the blocks are coming back above the 2.0 mark.  I'm inclined to believe the blocks will improve compared to the last couple years but who knows.  I also don't know whether he's going to be a 46% guy or a 50% guy.  

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I think Ibaka is still a fine fantasy player but definitely not worth his pre-draft ranking. There are too many things working against him this year. Even the supposedly "positives" are actually not quite positive:

 

#1 Offensive Volume

Just because he's not sharing the court with Durant and Westbrook doesn't make him a better offensive player. Ibaka didn't increase his ouput when Durant or Westbrook was injured the last 3 years. He's simply not a player that you can revolve the offense around - he's a role player who can make open jump shots. Is he really going to take more than 11 shots this year? He won't get the same quality shots he got in OKC. I don't think he'll score more than 13-14 points. 

 

#3 Defensive Role

His blocks have gone down over the years because OKC rarely played him at center and the league is in love with stretch 4's. You can't block shots if you are guarding your man at the 3pt line. Ibaka will do the same thing in Orlando since they already have 2 other centers in Vucevic and Biyombo. If Orlando committed to playing Ibaka at C and Gordon at 4, then I can see him going back to the 2.5-3.0 blocks range, but they are not doing that. 

 

#3 Offensive Role

Elfrid Payton has the ball. Fournier is the #1 perimeter option. Vucevic is the #1 post option. So what is Ibaka going to do? Probably nothing but just spotting up behind the 3pt line again. He probably won't get any open shots, however, because defense will more likely choose to sag off Gordon's or Payton's man than his. When he's playing with Biyombo he won't be the roll man in the pick & roll because he needs to be the one spacing the court. 

 

Just not looking good for Ibaka this year. If he slides to the 4th or 5th round yea you kinda have no choice but to scoop him up, but he definitely doesn't offer much upside in the 2nd/3rd round range. 

Edited by bballshinobi

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I'm buying on Ibaka. Call me crazy, but they need offensive output. Yes he is not a crazy 20 point per game guy be has game that's consistent unlike others in the starting lineup. If their starting lineup involves a combo of Payton/Ibaka/Biyombo someone has to score. I don't think Gordon is ready to take the reigns. His rebounds will go down for sure but I think they will have him shooting less threes and in the paint more. But again call me crazy. 

 

With that said in H2H I would be wary but in Roto I'm buying.

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12 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

I'm buying on Ibaka. Call me crazy, but they need offensive output. Yes he is not a crazy 20 point per game guy be has game that's consistent unlike others in the starting lineup. If their starting lineup involves a combo of Payton/Ibaka/Biyombo someone has to score. I don't think Gordon is ready to take the reigns. His rebounds will go down for sure but I think they will have him shooting less threes and in the paint more. But again call me crazy. 

 

With that said in H2H I would be wary but in Roto I'm buying.

 

Just because the team needs offense doesn't mean Ibaka will be the one to supply it. He doesn't have the ability to create his own offense, so the only way for him to get shots is to set screens for him to get open or use him as the screen man in the pick & roll/pop. Orlando, however, will run screens for Fournier, not him, and use Vucevic and Biyombo for the pick roll/pop. Why won't they use Ibaka for the pick roll/pop? Because it requires floor spacing, and Vucevic nor Biyombo can space the floor - same reason why Thunder used Steven Adams/Kanter as the primary man in the pick & roll and just have Ibaka camp behind the 3pt line.

 

The best comparison I can think if Horace Grant's 93-94 season after Jordan retired. He averaged 11 shots and 13 points in 93, so you might think he'll blow up be a 20ppg player without MJ. Nope, he only average 1.5 more shots and 15 ppg in 1994. It's just not his game to score a lot of points. He was very similar to Ibaka - blue collar player who can stick a open jump shot when left open. 

 

Ibaka isn't Chris Bosh. He is Horace Grant.

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1 hour ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

I'm buying on Ibaka. Call me crazy, but they need offensive output. Yes he is not a crazy 20 point per game guy be has game that's consistent unlike others in the starting lineup. If their starting lineup involves a combo of Payton/Ibaka/Biyombo someone has to score. I don't think Gordon is ready to take the reigns. His rebounds will go down for sure but I think they will have him shooting less threes and in the paint more. But again call me crazy. 

 

With that said in H2H I would be wary but in Roto I'm buying.

 

My initial reaction was to just stay away, but I feel alot of negative sentiment could push him to price where I'm a buyer in a roto/auction type setting if he starts to fall below 30. I don't have high expectations but I think he will hold that type of value and his blocks+ft%+durability are a really rare combo.

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19 hours ago, bballshinobi said:

#3 Defensive Role

His blocks have gone down over the years because OKC rarely played him at center and the league is in love with stretch 4's. You can't block shots if you are guarding your man at the 3pt line. Ibaka will do the same thing in Orlando since they already have 2 other centers in Vucevic and Biyombo. If Orlando committed to playing Ibaka at C and Gordon at 4, then I can see him going back to the 2.5-3.0 blocks range, but they are not doing that.

 

I really question the assumptions being made here. Vucevic is not an exemplary paint defender; he is hesitant to leave his feet and gets called for a lot of defensive three-second violations. Regardless of their roles on offense, why would Frank Vogel prefer to have Ibaka chasing stretch fours and Vooch manning the middle? I think it's more likely that Ibaka plays PF on offense and C on defense, similar to what the Spurs did with Big Fun and Blair/Splitter in recent years.

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And if Ibaka plays C on defense then Vooch will chase stretch fours? He doesn't have the ability so they cannot do it. Yes Biyombo can do it but he is better at the rim, so I don't see any way Ibaka plays C on defense while one of the real Cs is on the floor.

Edited by RipCity0

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Ibaka has never convinced me. Of course in new team he can maybe improve his numbers to 15/8 and 2+ blk. More probably he average 13-14 pts and 7 rebs. Ibaka's position in BBM rankings has always been mystery for me. At season 2011/12 he finished 11th with 9,1pts, 7,5 rebs, 3,7 blk and 53,5 FG%. All other numbers were rubbish (FT% in this season 66,1!). Is this kind of player really 11th!? Only because of blocks?

And what is always been her weakness - lack of assists and steals. Every year many people here in RW forums say about Ibaka: he doesn't hurt you anywhere. But now even his efficiency is not convincing anymore and lack of assists and steals hurts so much that makes me cry... If you look at BBM value columns there are green (good categories) white (near average cats) and red (below average) colors. If player's value in category is between -0,2 and -0,5 then color is rose and not red. Only two players have no red-colored columns - Kawhi and Horford. And at least more 20-25 players have less red colors than Ibaka. If big man is not capable more than 14/7 he needs some other values (percents over 50/80 or 3+ assists or 1+ steals), what Ibaka don't have. In 20-team league I can consider him at 3rd round only.

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30 minutes ago, RipCity0 said:

And if Ibaka plays C on defense then Vooch will chase stretch fours? He doesn't have the ability so they cannot do it.

 

So Vucevic can't play inside defense and can't play outside defense. I don't see how the problem here is Ibaka. Orlando brought in Ibaka knowing that he'll be a UFA next summer, and his elite skill is paint defense. It's not a huge leap to say that the Magic are going to give him every opportunity to play the way he wants to play and that they're going to build their identity around what he brings to the table. Just go look at quotes from the introductory press conferences for both Ibaka and Biyombo. They're all about establishing a defensive identity, and if Vucevic can't show that he has a place in it, then, yeah, Biyombo should be chasing stretch fours. His speed is one of his best assets.

 

As far as Vooch chasing stretch fours, I think that there are some that he couldn't keep up with and some he could. The thing with his defense is that his shortcomings are more to do with timing and confusion and over-committing when moving out to mid-range from the post, and less to do with slowness getting to the right spot. If you compare their defensive stats (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202696/tracking/defense/), you'll see that Vucevic actually posted a lower (better) DFG% than either Ibaka or Biyombo against three-pointers and against all shots more than fifteen feet from the basket. (Those numbers, of course, don't detail the situation, but they ought to give you pause for thought.)

 

I'm not extremely bullish on Ibaka this year (I am on Biyombo), but I don't think third round is an unreasonable expectation.

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Who said the problem is Ibaka and why then put Biyombo chasing stretch fours while it would be ok to put Ibaka there and Biyombo under the basket? Biyombo is a much better rebounder so he should be closer to the basket. You think Ibaka really dreams of playing C and this would be his ideal situation to build around? Who is a PF and dreams to play C? Only the opposite can happen.

 

As for the stat you used it's really poor choice. You compare the DFG% for 3s of a C to the one of a PF? Seriously?

 

 

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On 9/20/2016 at 2:10 PM, apatas said:

Ibaka has never convinced me. Of course in new team he can maybe improve his numbers to 15/8 and 2+ blk. More probably he average 13-14 pts and 7 rebs. Ibaka's position in BBM rankings has always been mystery for me. At season 2011/12 he finished 11th with 9,1pts, 7,5 rebs, 3,7 blk and 53,5 FG%. All other numbers were rubbish (FT% in this season 66,1!). Is this kind of player really 11th!? Only because of blocks?

And what is always been her weakness - lack of assists and steals. Every year many people here in RW forums say about Ibaka: he doesn't hurt you anywhere. But now even his efficiency is not convincing anymore and lack of assists and steals hurts so much that makes me cry... If you look at BBM value columns there are green (good categories) white (near average cats) and red (below average) colors. If player's value in category is between -0,2 and -0,5 then color is rose and not red. Only two players have no red-colored columns - Kawhi and Horford. And at least more 20-25 players have less red colors than Ibaka. If big man is not capable more than 14/7 he needs some other values (percents over 50/80 or 3+ assists or 1+ steals), what Ibaka don't have. In 20-team league I can consider him at 3rd round only.

Do you expect bigs to help out a lot in assists and steals? And his FT% is decent for a big, but it doesn't really matter because he barely gets to the free throw line. 

 

and I'm pretty sure ibaka will have a bigger offensive role in Orlando than OKC. 

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18 hours ago, Ruspin Ruxin said:

Do you expect bigs to help out a lot in assists and steals?

 

and I'm pretty sure ibaka will have a bigger offensive role in Orlando than OKC. 

1) Not a lot, but if some player is considered as a 2nd round target (I mean in 20-team league where I am playing), then it is not enough if both categories are weak. This kind of players I can draft only starting from 4th round. I look 2+assists and 1+steals, if one of them is not matched, it is more or less OK yet.

2) Yes, it might be, but I am not sure. My prediction is still 14/7 and 2 blocks, playing time 30-32 minutes.

And Ibaka's efficiency is also overvalued. If we look at bigs, who are not drafted in 1st round, then Horford, Aldridge and JVal are clearly more efficient than him.

Edited by apatas

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3 hours ago, apatas said:

1) Not a lot, but if some player is considered as a 2nd round target (I mean in 20-team league where I am playing), then it is not enough if both categories are weak. This kind of players I can draft only starting from 4th round. I look 2+assists and 1+steals, if one of them is not matched, it is more or less OK yet.

2) Yes, it might be, but I am not sure. My prediction is still 14/7 and 2 blocks, playing time 30-32 minutes.

And Ibaka's efficiency is also overvalued. If we look at bigs, who are not drafted in 1st round, then Horford, Aldridge and JVal are clearly more efficient than him.

Before this past season ibaka had been top 20 in per game value every year since the 11-12 season. He's absolutely worth a pick in the 2nd round pick in a 20 team league. 

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Just did a money draft on Yahoo. 6th overall of a 12 team league. Got Ibaka in the 5th round. H2H 9 cat. I thought it was a steal myself.

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On 10/4/2016 at 11:32 PM, Trade Monster said:

Just did a money draft on Yahoo. 6th overall of a 12 team league. Got Ibaka in the 5th round. H2H 9 cat. I thought it was a steal myself.

 

27 minutes ago, frenchbullcho said:

Awesome stat with all the bigs playing. Please keep this up so I don't regret taking you in the 4th

 

 

thats a steal..

 

were you guys top 5 picks?

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Career year coming..Orlando got him for those blks AND that sweet jumper! They are going to let him loose...

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