Michael Fulmer 2017 Outlook

[mysonx3 3,674]

The report on Fulmer coming up was plus slider, plus fastball with average command. But it was his changeup that posted an above average whiff rate, while the fastball and slider were slightly below average. If Fulmer can improve the results from his slider and mid-90s heater, he could have top of the rotation potential

[jfazz23 1,184]

agree....think hes winning 17+ next year

[Homerj24 69]

3.06/3.76/3.95 (ERA/FIP/xFIP). Unless the strikeout numbers come up (high 8's) I could see a 3.50-3.65 next year. That's okay, but less than you'll likely pay for. 

[ktierne3 114]

I think he's intriguing but it depends on what his draft price is. His ERA was 3.06 this year which looks great on face value, but his FIP was a less glamorous 3.76 and his xFIP was a mediocre 3.95. His k/9 was 7.47 which isn't incredible, and his LOB% was 79.0% (a little higher than the league average of about 70%). His first half was awesome (2.11 era) while his second half had less to be desired at an era of 3.94. His second time through the order he had a stellar 1.34 era, in contrast to his third time through where his era jumped to a 5.03. Looks like he cruises and then that last time through the order he struggles a bit which I don't think is super unnatural for a young pitcher. 

I think these are pretty good numbers for a rookie but I could see people looking at his era and drafting him too high.

Edited October 24, 2016 by ktierne3

[mysonx3 3,674]

4 hours ago, Homerj24 said:

3.06/3.76/3.95 (ERA/FIP/xFIP). Unless the strikeout numbers come up (high 8's) I could see a 3.50-3.65 next year. That's okay, but less than you'll likely pay for. 

If I'm drafting him, it's with the hope that his stuff is good enough to up the Ks next year.

As with lots of pitching prospects coming up, the question marks with Fulmer were his change and (to a lesser extent) his command. He answered concerns by posting a 2.38 BB/9 and a 19.0% swinging strike rate on the changeup.

But the performance of his fastball and slider, which were what scouts had confidence in, was merely average and kept the strikeout rate down

[jfazz23 1,184]

14 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

If I'm drafting him, it's with the hope that his stuff is good enough to up the Ks next year.

As with lots of pitching prospects coming up, the question marks with Fulmer were his change and (to a lesser extent) his command. He answered concerns by posting a 2.38 BB/9 and a 19.0% swinging strike rate on the changeup.

But the performance of his fastball and slider, which were what scouts had confidence in, was merely average and kept the strikeout rate down

i thought i read something that said his Ks were better than verlanders at that point in their respective careers

[2ndCitySox 2,483]

On Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 4:10 PM, mysonx3 said:

The report on Fulmer coming up was plus slider, plus fastball with average command. But it was his changeup that posted an above average whiff rate, while the fastball and slider were slightly below average. If Fulmer can improve the results from his slider and mid-90s heater, he could have top of the rotation potential

yeah I think he will be really solid next year. SP 2 material

[Gandalf 1]

Guy can flat out pitch. Don't let the lack of big Ks fool you.

[midlip 355]

Gross spring.  Worry or draft with confidence?

[kenag122002 41]

5 minutes ago, midlip said:

Gross spring.  Worry or draft with confidence?

 

9 Ks, 2 BB, 0 HR in 8.2 IP.  I'm not seeing too much reason to downgrade.

[midlip 355]

2 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

9 Ks, 2 BB, 0 HR in 8.2 IP.  I'm not seeing too much reason to downgrade.

 

countered with 5.19ERA and 1.5WHIP

 

but i get it, too small sample for those stats to really matter 

[kenag122002 41]

Just now, midlip said:

 

countered with 5.19ERA and 1.5WHIP

 

but i get it, too small sample for those stats to really matter 

 

Agree, sample is wayyyyy too small to even start thinking about ERA and WHIP being relevant.

 

Fulmer looks fine.

[rich22 576]

2 hours ago, midlip said:

Gross spring.  Worry or draft with confidence?

 

 

that's like in the "so what" or "who cares" category

[rich22 576]

End of draft guy

[Crash Davis 84]

20 minutes ago, rich22 said:

End of draft guy

Ya in an 8 team league. 

[rich22 576]

1 minute ago, Crash Davis said:

Ya in an 8 team league. 

about right

[mysonx3 3,674]

24 minutes ago, rich22 said:

End of draft guy

Based on?

[rich22 576]

Just now, mysonx3 said:

Based on?

 

 

my opinion

[mysonx3 3,674]

Just now, rich22 said:

 

 

my opinion

Why even bother to have an opinion if it's not based on anything?

[rich22 576]

5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Why even bother to have an opinion if it's not based on anything?

 

 

You go that route.  I think I'm good looking too

 

Do u need something written?  lol.   My "opinion" is based on 50 years of baseball watching.   Can't answer that question any better

 

 

Feel free to disagree.   My opinion is no better than yours

Edited March 20, 2017 by rich22

[mysonx3 3,674]

1 minute ago, rich22 said:

 

 

You go that route.  I think I'm good looking too

 

Do u need something written?  lol.   My "opinion" is based on 50 years of baseball watching.   Can't answer that question any better

And in that baseball watching, you've come up with zero reasons why he's an end of draft guy? If it's not based on something you've seen, not based on something you've read, not based on something statistical, that makes it just a random guess...

If I wanted a random guess, I have a random number generator on my phone that would've told me exactly when to pick him. I'm looking for educated guesses here. Is there really ZERO reason for your opinion on Fulmer? I find that hard to believe

[rich22 576]

Just now, mysonx3 said:

And in that baseball watching, you've come up with zero reasons why he's an end of draft guy? If it's not based on something you've seen, not based on something you've read, not based on something statistical, that makes it just a random guess...

If I wanted a random guess, I have a random number generator on my phone that would've told me exactly when to pick him. I'm looking for educated guesses here. Is there really ZERO reason for your opinion on Fulmer? I find that hard to believe

 

1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

And in that baseball watching, you've come up with zero reasons why he's an end of draft guy? If it's not based on something you've seen, not based on something you've read, not based on something statistical, that makes it just a random guess...

If I wanted a random guess, I have a random number generator on my phone that would've told me exactly when to pick him. I'm looking for educated guesses here. Is there really ZERO reason for your opinion on Fulmer? I find that hard to believe

 

 

yup.  I have 3 sons too.    Fullmer can be good.   I wouldn't touch him until rd 20.  gOT HIM THERE.   pEDIGREE IS GOOD.  dOUBT HE EXceeds what he did last year

[rich22 576]

5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

And in that baseball watching, you've come up with zero reasons why he's an end of draft guy? If it's not based on something you've seen, not based on something you've read, not based on something statistical, that makes it just a random guess...

If I wanted a random guess, I have a random number generator on my phone that would've told me exactly when to pick him. I'm looking for educated guesses here. Is there really ZERO reason for your opinion on Fulmer? I find that hard to believe

 

 

I watched him in the Mets organization.  He has a good upside.  It's just my opinion that it won't be this year

[mysonx3 3,674]

15 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

I watched him in the Mets organization.  He has a good upside.  It's just my opinion that it won't be this year

It already happened last year though

[phoenixbases 225]

13 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

It already happened last year though

GL with this argument fam, you've already won but you've also already lost.