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Javier Baez 2017 Outlook

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I do, eligible all over and is just going to keep getting better. I have him in dynasty for another 3 years and I'm loving it...should be an everday payer in '17.

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The kid brings it every day. Hustles 100%. Has all the tools and the smarts to do it all. He is continuously improving his K rate and lowering that high leg kick. He is huge protection in the lineup and he has great protection around him as well. Nothing NOT to like here.

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he's my favorite cub. I love his defensive ability, and he's either too young or dumb to feel pressure. he should have multiple position eligibility next year, and I see his weekly role growing in 2017. buy.

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On Monday, November 07, 2016 at 7:50 PM, Dugout Legend said:

The kid brings it every day. Hustles 100%. Has all the tools and the smarts to do it all. He is continuously improving his K rate and lowering that high leg kick. He is huge protection in the lineup and he has great protection around him as well. Nothing NOT to like here.

his spot in the lineup is the only downfall, but he could make that better in 2017 

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I love him more in a daily or weekly setting league, for more traditional old school roto leagues like mine, its a little tougher.  He played in 142 games, but its not like he was full time get 4 at bats in each of those, which when you dont get those at bats, the Runs and the RBI's lag a bit, and that is my concern.  That said, I think he has some upside that he might be worth a grab at say the MI spot.   

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So Baez went 50/14/59/12 in 421 at bats this year. If he makes a few refinements to his approach this year I'm 100% in, but if he still has spells where he just wails at junk outside the zone, I think that's who he'll be forever. 

 

With a full season of at bats he's like a 70/18/70/18 guy which is good, but pretty much Marcus Semien or maybe Freddy Galvis. If Baez can figure out himself and MLB pitching, he could be a 85/25/85/20 hitter and now we are talking about a really good hitter. 

 

PS Freddy Galvis went 61/20/67/17 in 584 at bats and was ranked 350 for the season in Yahoo Roto. Semien went 72/27/75/10. 

 

The power level expectation for 2B/SS is much higher lately and while Baez might have been a unicorn 4 years ago, he's going to really have to break out to make a splash. 

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On Monday, November 07, 2016 at 8:50 PM, Dugout Legend said:

The kid brings it every day. Hustles 100%. Has all the tools and the smarts to do it all. He is continuously improving his K rate and lowering that high leg kick. He is huge protection in the lineup and he has great protection around him as well. Nothing NOT to like here.

There certainly is plenty to not like. 

 

He isn't an everyday player, and that can hurt in weekly lineups. 

 

His walk rate was a career worst, on any level, at 3.3%.

 

His O-Swing, percent of pitches swing out of the strike zone was one of the worst in baseball and actually worse than it was in the past, elevating to 42%... yikes! 

 

His discipline is not improving is actually worse, he's just swinging more, like at almost anything. 

 

His hard hit rate also dropped to its worst mark at s putrid 29%.

 

He's got a ton of work to do bit the raw tools are so exciting. 

 

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55 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

There certainly is plenty to not like. 

 

He isn't an everyday player, and that can hurt in weekly lineups. 

 

His walk rate was a career worst, on any level, at 3.3%.

 

His O-Swing, percent of pitches swing out of the strike zone was one of the worst in baseball and actually worse than it was in the past, elevating to 42%... yikes! 

 

His discipline is not improving is actually worse, he's just swinging more, like at almost anything. 

 

His hard hit rate also dropped to its worst mark at s putrid 29%.

 

He's got a ton of work to do bit the raw tools are so exciting. 

 

One minor nit to pick - a 29% Hard hit rate is not "putrid" - it's 22nd percentile, not including pitchers.

Other than that, you're spot on

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2 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

One minor nit to pick - a 29% Hard hit rate is not "putrid" - it's 22nd percentile, not including pitchers.

Other than that, you're spot on

 

Fangraphs really considers 30 about average. Now hitters have been more focused on hard% in the new baseball mindset so it's probably higher, but as someone who looks at quality of contact numbers a lot, 29 is far from a large worry.

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Fangraphs really considers 30 about average. Now hitters have been more focused on hard% in the new baseball mindset so it's probably higher, but as someone who looks at quality of contact numbers a lot, 29 is far from a large worry.

31% was average last year for non pitchers

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11 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Fangraphs really considers 30 about average. Now hitters have been more focused on hard% in the new baseball mindset so it's probably higher, but as someone who looks at quality of contact numbers a lot, 29 is far from a large worry.

@mysonx3

 

For a guy that hits for power, 29% is terrible... he didn't qualify for 500 PA, so if you drop the group to 450+ PA (Baez had 450 PA), Baez ranked 137 out of 175 hitters in hard hit rate... keeping in mind there's guys with slap hitting approaches in the league that purposefully will be low on the list, 137 out of 175 is horrible.

 

The median hard hit rate last year was 34%.

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On 11/29/2016 at 10:28 PM, mysonx3 said:

31% was average last year for non pitchers

 

But that's league average not fantasy average.  Again I agree it's not putrid but it isn't desirable... Remember fantasy is a thing that you desire.  So generally everyone in your lineup should be an above average hitter unless they are your source of a lot of SBs.  

 

Hard% is more about how consistent you can barrel the ball.  I've seen Rizzo many times take swings at 75-80% and hit them hard just due to keeping his hands back and putting the barrel on the ball.  Baez is learning this and will continue to learn this, he has tremendous bat speed easily the most in an excellent Cubs lineup.

 

Funny I bring up Rizzo as he had a similar triple slash line as Baez in his age 23 season before his breakout season.  The main difference was though is Rizzo got over 200 more PAs that season and was drawing walks.  The main thing to look for from Baez is his walk rate, is it going up?  Cause if it isn't pitchers will exploit Baez by forcing him to chase pitches.  If Baez can take more pitches out of the zone he will drastically increase his production with the bat.

 

We have already seen Baez make drastic improvements in cutting down the K%.  From 41.5% to 30.0% to 24.0% last year.  If he can continue to improve there while drawing more walks that will be a very encouraging sign.  Because his power should play much better than it has so far into his career in Wrigley.  He is looking like he'll be looking at nearly every day so he shouldn't have much problem breaking 550 PAs.

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On 11/17/2016 at 4:59 PM, parrothead said:

I love him more in a daily or weekly setting league, for more traditional old school roto leagues like mine, its a little tougher.  He played in 142 games, but its not like he was full time get 4 at bats in each of those, which when you dont get those at bats, the Runs and the RBI's lag a bit, and that is my concern.  That said, I think he has some upside that he might be worth a grab at say the MI spot.   

 

THIS

 

I can't tell you how many times last year he came in during the 4th, 5th, or 6th inning. This will kill your counting stats. I really don't see this changing that dramatically. I'd say he probably earned himself about 10 more starts, but it's still Maddon, and Maddon is gonna play his platoon and bench guys to whatever advantage he thinks that gives him. 

 

Baez is also hurt by being on the wrong side of his split stats. If he was a lefty I think he would get more playing time. 

 

That they went out and got Jon Jay and haven't traded anyone else yet, doesn't speak well of his potential playing time. 

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On Friday, December 02, 2016 at 1:15 PM, FouLLine said:

 

But that's league average not fantasy average.  Again I agree it's not putrid but it isn't desirable... Remember fantasy is a thing that you desire.  So generally everyone in your lineup should be an above average hitter unless they are your source of a lot of SBs.  

 

Hard% is more about how consistent you can barrel the ball.  I've seen Rizzo many times take swings at 75-80% and hit them hard just due to keeping his hands back and putting the barrel on the ball.  Baez is learning this and will continue to learn this, he has tremendous bat speed easily the most in an excellent Cubs lineup.

 

Funny I bring up Rizzo as he had a similar triple slash line as Baez in his age 23 season before his breakout season.  The main difference was though is Rizzo got over 200 more PAs that season and was drawing walks.  The main thing to look for from Baez is his walk rate, is it going up?  Cause if it isn't pitchers will exploit Baez by forcing him to chase pitches.  If Baez can take more pitches out of the zone he will drastically increase his production with the bat.

 

We have already seen Baez make drastic improvements in cutting down the K%.  From 41.5% to 30.0% to 24.0% last year.  If he can continue to improve there while drawing more walks that will be a very encouraging sign.  Because his power should play much better than it has so far into his career in Wrigley.  He is looking like he'll be looking at nearly every day so he shouldn't have much problem breaking 550 PAs.

Beyond just walks Rizzo's pitch selection has been night and day from Baez. That's the main difference, Rizzo has fantastic pitch selection, whereas Baez has struggled mightily with being a hacker all through the minors and instead of improving, it's actually gotten worse.

 

Baez has insane bat speed but because he hacks away at everything, he's not barreling up good pitches as often as he should. 

 

I love the raw talent, but I am very disappointed in his inability to improve his pitch selection thus far. 

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Is anyone comfortable drafting Baez as their starting 2B or SS?

I'm leaning towards no myself. The power/speed upside is tantalizing, but the floor is pretty scary - possible part time player with a huge K rate and terrible average/OBP.

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On 12/3/2016 at 10:40 PM, StevieStats said:

Beyond just walks Rizzo's pitch selection has been night and day from Baez. That's the main difference, Rizzo has fantastic pitch selection, whereas Baez has struggled mightily with being a hacker all through the minors and instead of improving, it's actually gotten worse.

 

Baez has insane bat speed but because he hacks away at everything, he's not barreling up good pitches as often as he should. 

 

I love the raw talent, but I am very disappointed in his inability to improve his pitch selection thus far. 

 

I'm not sure how you can say he hasn't improved his pitch selection. He's gone from striking out 41 percent of the time to 30 to 24 in the last three MLB seasons. 

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1 hour ago, ryno1980 said:

 

I'm not sure how you can say he hasn't improved his pitch selection. He's gone from striking out 41 percent of the time to 30 to 24 in the last three MLB seasons. 

I already stated it above, his O-Swing which is pitches swung at outside the strike zone got worse, went from approx 38% to 42%.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

I already stated it above, his O-Swing which is pitches swung at outside the strike zone got worse, went from approx 38% to 42%.

Yes, I saw that, pretty minor change in my opinion. He improved at many other things: LD % at 19.4 (up 6 percent from '14), hit .207 in 2-strike counts after hitting .137 in 2014; and that contact rate improving by 13 percent is a very big deal. He may be swinging more but he's changed his swing to be able to make more contact.

He's far from a finished product, but he is developing an approach, which I wasn't sure he was capable of a couple years ago. 

Edited by ryno1980
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Kind shocked at where Baez is going in the NFBC rankings among 3B

 

12 Evan Longoria TB 3B 102.50 78 124
13 Javier Baez ChC 3B 123.43 90 152
14 Maikel Franco Phi 3B 126.93 76 196
15 Justin Turner LAD 3B 130.21 64 175
16 Jake Lamb Ari 3B 146.71 122 193
17 Hernan Perez Mil 3B 152.86 96 240
18 Ryon Healy Oak 3B 198.07 146 243

 

Is this just from his potential to steal 15+ bases? 

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5 hours ago, lipitorkid said:

Kind shocked at where Baez is going in the NFBC rankings among 3B

 

12 Evan Longoria TB 3B 102.50 78 124
13 Javier Baez ChC 3B 123.43 90 152
14 Maikel Franco Phi 3B 126.93 76 196
15 Justin Turner LAD 3B 130.21 64 175
16 Jake Lamb Ari 3B 146.71 122 193
17 Hernan Perez Mil 3B 152.86 96 240
18 Ryon Healy Oak 3B 198.07 146 243

 

Is this just from his potential to steal 15+ bases? 

Yeah must be. I'd take Turner, Franco and Lamb over him in a fast minute.

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yeah must be. I'd take Turner, Franco and Lamb over him in a fast minute.

 

I might even take Healy before Baez.

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18 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

I might even take Healy before Baez.

I think someone posted in his thread something about his PT being diminished. 

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Breaking down Baez potential for starts this year. Maddon has spoken about getting everyone enough rest so they are strong for the playoffs. Zobrist in particular struggled in the second half and said it would be easier on him to play less second base. 

 

Baez starts projection:

2b - 90 

ss - 15 (Russell sat 11 games last season so four more rest days is possible)

3b - 30 (this means Bryant spells the Heywards, Jon Jay or Almoras)

1b - 5 games

 

i think 130 is more realistic here but 140 could definitely happen.

 

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