2ndCitySox

Jake Lamb 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

So Rake of Lamb blew up the fantasy scene up until the ASB, then looked like 2015 Jake after. I think 2017 will be a really good year for Lamb, but fangraphs has his as the 15th ranked 3b, which feels like Alberto Callaspo. what do you guys think? Stud or Dud? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

So Rake of Lamb blew up the fantasy scene up until the ASB, then looked like 2015 Jake after. I think 2017 will be a really good year for Lamb, but fangraphs has his as the 15th ranked 3b, which feels like Alberto Callaspo. what do you guys think? Stud or Dud? 

 

His biggest question mark is his ability to hit lefties and his potential growth in that regard. He hit .271 along with 25 HRs vs Righties and .164 with just 4 HRs against Lefthanders. Remember that he also dealt with a wrist injury mid-season and you can see that really impacted his performance from Late July-Aug on. I think that perhaps he's a good value going into next year if you believe he can make adjustments against lefties, and even if not, he's got good numbers against righties and he can be a platoon guy on your team if you're looking to go cheap at 3rd. Fangraphs has him ranked in the right range imo, but he has the upside to jump into the top 10.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How many bats will he get?  Does he remain a platoon player?  There are so many many good options at 3B these days that I can see why a possible platoon player only is ranked so low.  And I'd rather have Jose Ramierez or Ryon Healy myself if I went after a cheaper, under the radar third basemen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Easy 30 HR and .270 BA. First full season most guys fall off in the 2nd half (fatigue). This guy will easily hit 30 HR, 90 RBIs, and .270. 

 

First half OPS against LHP was .769, not bad. Doubt he will platoon. Especially at his age, I'm sure he can even improve on that number. I would buy this guy and his power with confidence. Could even get lucky and hit .290 with how hard he hits the ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jspeco9 said:

Easy 30 HR and .270 BA. First full season most guys fall off in the 2nd half (fatigue). This guy will easily hit 30 HR, 90 RBIs, and .270. 

 

First half OPS against LHP was .769, not bad. Doubt he will platoon. Especially at his age, I'm sure he can even improve on that number. I would buy this guy and his power with confidence. Could even get lucky and hit .290 with how hard he hits the ball.

Maybe he shouldn't be platooned.  But hello.  You do know he plays for the D-Backs aka Platoons 'R' Us.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Monday, November 14, 2016 at 11:22 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Maybe he shouldn't be platooned.  But hello.  You do know he plays for the D-Backs aka Platoons 'R' Us.

new manager though right? I don't know much about Louvollo

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

new manager though right? I don't know much about Louvollo

Well Louvello was a great bench coach for the Red Sox.  I really wished they had gotten rid of John Farell and hired Louvello in Boston.  Having said that I have no idea how he will deal with The House of Platoons in Arizona.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lamb had a nice little breakout last year.  He was really on fire in the first half.  

 

Lamb's second half looks really unlucky with his .240 BABIP compared to .337 in the first half.  

 

And normally that would believe me that teams were pitching him to hit into the shift more.  But when I look at the statistical evidence it shows that Lamb actually was making adjustments to go the other way more.  Here are his 1st half vs 2nd half splits in pull%, center%, oppo%

 

1st half:  50.5%, 30.0%, 19.5%

2nd half: 33.7%, 39.9%, 26.4%

 

That's a drastic adjustment made for a guy in one half.  It's almost as if he adjusted too much.  I honestly can understand the drop in power in the second half as it's harder to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field but his average dropping nearly 100 points is just some horrible luck when he's trying to beat the shift.  Now his LD% did drop from 20.5% to 13.5% from 1st to 2nd half so that I will have to conclude was a fairly large factor in his BABIP / BA dropping in the 2nd half but still seems pretty unlucky to me.

 

Lamb's season could have been even better than it was overall.  His BABIP this season was down 50 points from last season despite career bests in hard% and soft%.  While the LD% did drop it wasn't enough to justify a 50 point decrease with hard% seeing a significant increase as well as his soft% seeing a fairly big decrease. 

 

The main adjustment that I see Lamb needing to make to really elevate his game to the next level is his opposite field line drive swing.  Which is so much easier to iron out in the offseason with a coach and a tee than in he middle of an MLB season.  So I am very pleased to see Lamb looking to beat the shift more as a left handed hitter but his first real try at the adjustment failed.  With some offseason coaching and tee work he could really get his opposite field swing going and be a true .300 power hitter.  

 

Lamb has always been a .300+ hitter in his career.  All 3 seasons in college, every level in the minor leagues, his college career BA is .326 and his MiLB career BA is .321, I have come to temper my expectations for lefty power hitters BA the last few years with how good shifts and pitch sequencing has become at the major league level.  But I will expect a lot more out of the BA department out of Lamb than most.   I think .290 is more than do able for him if he can figure out his opposite field adjustment this offseason like he figured out his elevation adjustment last offseason

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy is an absolute stud, ignore him at your peril. He's going to win a lot of people's leagues next year. Full season breakout forthcoming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/14/2016 at 11:07 AM, jspeco9 said:

Easy 30 HR and .270 BA. First full season most guys fall off in the 2nd half (fatigue). This guy will easily hit 30 HR, 90 RBIs, and .270. 

 

First half OPS against LHP was .769, not bad. Doubt he will platoon. Especially at his age, I'm sure he can even improve on that number. I would buy this guy and his power with confidence. Could even get lucky and hit .290 with how hard he hits the ball.

 

Eh, I think that's a little too easy. Maybe he was fatigued but I don't really buy that. Just seems like a really simplistic way to write it off. Maybe he was a bit fatigued but playing tired doesn't reduce your HR/FB% by half and make you bat under the mendoza line in most scenarios. There's a second half drop off and then there's jumping off a cliff. 

 

I'm not surprised by your optimism for 30 HRs, it's not something I'll project but I'm sure some will, but .270 to me seems awfully optimistic, especially to call that "Easy." Even in his first half Jake had a 24.6% K%. Do you know how many qualified hitters had a .270+ BA and a 24.6+ K%? Three. JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, and Jonathan Villar. And that's completely ignoring anything that happened in the second half. 

 

I"m not saying it's not in the realm of possibility, but to me that's a very aggressive, not an "easy" ranking. 

 

I'm hoping to do a deep dive on Lamb at some point, but I don't know how you just completely throw out the entire second half due to fatigue. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From a quick glance, Lamb completely lost the outer third of the plate in the second half. I'll post the graphs as well, but if you take the six squares of the Zone Profile that are the Outer Third of the Strikezone and the Three Outer Squares Outside the Zone, Lamb had an .867 SLG (52 Bases on 60 BIP/HRs) from April - June compared to a .227 SLG (10 Bases on 44 BIP/HRs) from July through the end of the season. That to me is an issue.

 

As @FouLLine pointed out, perhaps he will work on the off-season to develop his  opposite field approach, which should help this, but this losing of the Outer portion of the zone is Jay Bruce-esque, and need rectifying in order to make 30 and .270 "Easy." 

 

Here's the aforementioned Zone Profiles. Keep in mind the colors can be misleading as they're not consistent from graph to graph, but based on the zones within that graph, so while the Inner Zones are far Redder than before, this is more due to degradation elsewhere than an actual improvement on the inner 3rd. Look at the actual SLG numbers instead:

 

First Half: 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=571875&startDate=03/03/2016&endDate=06/30/2016&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Second Half:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=571875&startDate=07/01/2016&endDate=10/19/2016&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Eh, I think that's a little too easy. Maybe he was fatigued but I don't really buy that. Just seems like a really simplistic way to write it off. Maybe he was a bit fatigued but playing tired doesn't reduce your HR/FB% by half and make you bat under the mendoza line in most scenarios. There's a second half drop off and then there's jumping off a cliff. 

 

I'm not surprised by your optimism for 30 HRs, it's not something I'll project but I'm sure some will, but .270 to me seems awfully optimistic, especially to call that "Easy." Even in his first half Jake had a 24.6% K%. Do you know how many qualified hitters had a .270+ BA and a 24.6+ K%? Three. JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, and Jonathan Villar. And that's completely ignoring anything that happened in the second half. 

 

I"m not saying it's not in the realm of possibility, but to me that's a very aggressive, not an "easy" ranking. 

 

I'm hoping to do a deep dive on Lamb at some point, but I don't know how you just completely throw out the entire second half due to fatigue. 

You are an intelligent poster on these forums no doubt, but so is 2nd city sox. Check out the article he posted. I had already seen the article and it had me stoked on Lamb. Basically it shows how unlucky Lamb was given his hard contact rates. Sometimes it's not as simple as first half vs second half or a wrist injury.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, maguirekm said:

You are an intelligent poster on these forums no doubt, but so is 2nd city sox. Check out the article he posted. I had already seen the article and it had me stoked on Lamb. Basically it shows how unlucky Lamb was given his hard contact rates. Sometimes it's not as simple as first half vs second half or a wrist injury.

 

Eh, I've read it. I don't really agree at all that he was simply unlucky. 

 

He had a 7.0% Drop in LD%. He wasn't driving the ball like he did in the first half. While his Hard% was still good in the second half, it did take a significant dip from the first. Saying "Sometimes it's not as simple as first half vs second half" but saying its as simple as "luck" to me is a little outlandish. If you think my argument is as simple as taking the two halves and looking at nothing else, you're selling me a bit short chap, I think there's definitive reasons in that second half that are legitimate concerns for next season. 

 

I'm not saying by any means that lamb doesn't have a high offensive CEILING for this season, but people who are just 100% confident he's going to have it all figured out I think are just wayyyyyy too over optimistic to me. All I'm saying is that it's not a sure thing. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, taobball said:

From a quick glance, Lamb completely lost the outer third of the plate in the second half. I'll post the graphs as well, but if you take the six squares of the Zone Profile that are the Outer Third of the Strikezone and the Three Outer Squares Outside the Zone, Lamb had an .867 SLG (52 Bases on 60 BIP/HRs) from April - June compared to a .227 SLG (10 Bases on 44 BIP/HRs) from July through the end of the season. That to me is an issue.

 

As @FouLLine pointed out, perhaps he will work on the off-season to develop his  opposite field approach, which should help this, but this losing of the Outer portion of the zone is Jay Bruce-esque, and need rectifying in order to make 30 and .270 "Easy." 

 

Here's the aforementioned Zone Profiles. Keep in mind the colors can be misleading as they're not consistent from graph to graph, but based on the zones within that graph, so while the Inner Zones are far Redder than before, this is more due to degradation elsewhere than an actual improvement on the inner 3rd. Look at the actual SLG numbers instead:

 

First Half: 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=571875&startDate=03/03/2016&endDate=06/30/2016&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Second Half:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=571875&startDate=07/01/2016&endDate=10/19/2016&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

 

 

 

Granted this data is obviously not 100% the one thing I did take away from it is pitchers are pitching Lamb away.  Which makes sense with the way his oppo% went way up in the 2nd half.  So maybe teams don't plan to shift against him and will just pitch him away.  I'm curious to see what teams try to do with him.  But Lamb to me as at the point in his career where his talent and the adjustments he's made thus far into his career is going to be a much greater power than league adjustments. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, maguirekm said:

You are an intelligent poster on these forums no doubt, but so is 2nd city sox. Check out the article he posted. I had already seen the article and it had me stoked on Lamb. Basically it shows how unlucky Lamb was given his hard contact rates. Sometimes it's not as simple as first half vs second half or a wrist injury.

Thanks for the tout, but all I did was post a fangraphs article. Taoball is pretty elite as far as posters go. I'm more for comedic relief. I think Lamb will come at a discount because of his 2nd half. I think his injury drove some of his badness. He's a good value buy, but don't get crazy with expectations. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sabermetrics and number-crunching are one thing but how often do players (or anyone in any profession for that matter) duplicate one year exactly with the following year.  

 

I feel putting too much emphasis on 1st half versus 2nd half numbers in regards to Jake Lamb should come with a disclaimer akin to investing:  past performance is not indicative of future results.  It could have been the book got written on Jake Lamb, it could have been the wrist injury, it could have been fatigue, it could have been inconsistent playing time/not knowing if he was going to play or sit (especially vs. LHP) and it could have simply been that teams added to "the book" on Jake Lamb and he didn't adjust well enough.  


I think it's a combination of all those factors.  IMHO, cuz that's all we have in these forums are opinions, I rank these factors thus:

1) wrist injury:  I probably put this too high because I've had wrist issues myself and can only imagine how hard it would be to swing a wood bat knowing that it's going to hurt, especially if you make contact - and especially if that is weak contact on the outside part of the plate.

 

2) teams added to "the book" on Jake:  It happens....all he can do is adjust accordingly in-season, in-series and in-game to improve.

 

3) Playing time:  He hit well vs. LHP in minors and prior...IDK how that could just go away so hopefully the new staff makes good & makes Lamb an everyday player.

 

4) Fatigue:  I all but disregard this...all players get tired over the course of a season.  He's young, he should not be affected as much by this as, say, a Chase Utley or Jose Uribe....

 

I expect a solid season out of Lamb - I don't think .270 is too outrageous to hope for and I don't think 30 HR's is a stretch either.  Even if he only repeats last season, that's a good value 3B for where you're picking or paying in salary cap leagues.  I'll take it.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wayzupusc said:

I feel putting too much emphasis on 1st half versus 2nd half numbers in regards to Jake Lamb should come with a disclaimer akin to investing:  past performance is not indicative of future results.  It could have been the book got written on Jake Lamb, it could have been the wrist injury, it could have been fatigue, it could have been inconsistent playing time/not knowing if he was going to play or sit (especially vs. LHP) and it could have simply been that teams added to "the book" on Jake Lamb and he didn't adjust well enough.  

 

I don't see how anyone disagrees with that.

 

I'm not sayign what he can or cannot do or what he will or will not do I'm saying my confidence level is lower than a good number of other people and that he needs to make an adjustment of some kind in my mind and I'm not just going to assume he does it and rank him extremely high. Some people are saying .270 + 30 will be "easy". I never said I thought that was impossible, I just said I don't think it'd be easy. If you're drafting on what a few of the peole in this thread have said then you should pick him right around pick 80-90 because that's where I have Longoria going and that projection wont be all that different. I have him closer to 150. 

 

But I'm not putting any more emphasis on First vs. Second half then you are simply by pointing out your four factors. I agree in essence with what your saying, literally all I did was try to explain what I thought the book on Lamb was and what he'd potentially need to do to make that adjustment. I'm not questioning talent or offensive ceilings. I'm questioning what the actual productivity will be.

 

And as far as your third point, hitting LHP is much harder in the bigs than in the minors obviously... not saying Lamb won't show significant improvements or swift improvements in the majors, but in general i don't disregard major league platoon splits due to minor league platoon splits. I think Lamb will make strides against LHP this year but I do wonder if they come at once (i.e., from the jump in April) or if it's more of a progression where it's something that he improves upon throughout 2017. These are just all factors that push him away from the top 100 to me, not because I know what to think but because I don't. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I watched a lot of his ABs as I owned him for a good part of the season and he went on streaks that were pretty ridiculous. I believe at one point in the season(a little bit before AS break) he was #1 or #2 in OPS. The wrist injury happened and the wheels fell off. He had easy oppo boppo and could leg out triples when need be. It was painful to watch him against lefties and I hate to say it, but his approach/swing etc. really reminded me of Ike Davis. God I hope he doesn't become Ike but I am with Tao on this about being cautiously optimistic on him.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not putting a lot of stock into the L/R splits because he had similar BB/K numbers against both hands (actually slightly better BB/K ratio against LHP), and I don't think the sample is big enough to say that his batted ball authority against LHP (which was a problem in 2016) will continue to be a problem going forward

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

I'm not putting a lot of stock into the L/R splits because he had similar BB/K numbers against both hands (actually slightly better BB/K ratio against LHP), and I don't think the sample is big enough to say that his batted ball authority against LHP (which was a problem in 2016) will continue to be a problem going forward

 

Right. But you also don't have a sample that tells you it won't be a problem and that's where I'm coming from with Lamb that I think few others are is simply that I don't know what to expect at all and while I believe we have a better idea of the full offensive ceiling it's still a place by which I have very little "expectation" and if I draft him it'll be on hope.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Right. But you also don't have a sample that tells you it won't be a problem and that's where I'm coming from with Lamb that I think few others are is simply that I don't know what to expect at all and while I believe we have a better idea of the full offensive ceiling it's still a place by which I have very little "expectation" and if I draft him it'll be on hope.

That's a pretty poor line of reasoning. Lack of evidence for something isn't evidence for it's contradiction.

I have a few other concerns with Lamb's game (namely his K rate), but given that A. He hit lefties well in the minors and B. His K/BB was better against LHP than RHP in MLB, his splits aren't something that concerns me

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

That's a pretty poor line of reasoning. Lack of evidence for something isn't evidence for it's contradiction.

I have a few other concerns with Lamb's game (namely his K rate), but given that A. He hit lefties well in the minors and B. His K/BB was better against LHP than RHP in MLB, his splits aren't something that concerns me

 

 

How in the hell is it ever poor reasoning to say you don't know what to expect?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.