mysonx3

James Paxton 2017 Outlook

335 posts in this topic

So, um... yeah. 

This guy has very little in common with prior incarnations of himself.

Was extremely over the top, now three-quarter delivery

Was slightly above average velo, now best velo of any lefty SP in baseball

Throws a dramatically different cutter, which is 1mph faster and drops 3 inches more than his old one.

His knuckle curve is a bit faster and moves quite a bit more

He had bad control, now he has good control.

 

Paxton throws 4 pitches - fastball, cutter, knuckle-curve, and changeup - all 4 showed meaningful or even dramatic improvement, as did his control.

We literally have to throw out everything be did before last year.

Problem with that is that his season last year was a mixed bag - peripherals look good, but he gave up a lot of hard contact. With the sample being limited (this isn't the same pitcher as before, in any way), I'm inclined to believe the hard contact will regress towards the mean

Edited by mysonx3
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Not a bad late round flier.

 

We are talking about a guy that was once billed as the left-handed Kershaw. Maybe he will finally get there. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Isn't Kershaw the left-handed Kershaw?

It was some stupid thing I remembered from a scouting report from before his surgeries. 

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4 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Isn't Kershaw the left-handed Kershaw?

No, Kershaw is actually right handed, but him throwing with his right hand would create an excessively unfair advabtage so he was forced to learn to throw left-handed

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2 hours ago, pan55 said:

Had Kershaw pitched right handed he could have become the next Sidd Finch.

He's a pitcher, part yogi and post recluse - impressively liberated from our opulent lifestyle - Sidd's deciding about yoga, and his future in baseball.

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10 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

He's a pitcher, part yogi and post recluse - impressively liberated from our opulent lifestyle - Sidd's deciding about Yoga, and his future in baseball.

Mysox inserted his response for a reason. In the Sport's illustrated article the bolded first letters spelled Happy April fool's day

Edited by pan55
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On Friday, November 11, 2016 at 5:11 PM, thatguy725 said:

Not a bad late round flier.

 

We are talking about a guy that was once billed as the left-handed Kershaw. Maybe he will finally get there. 

when was he ever labeled THAT?

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On Friday, November 11, 2016 at 6:31 PM, taobball said:

 

Isn't Kershaw the left-handed Kershaw?

I thought Kershaw kicked the ball with his right foot. he's the right-footed Messi of baseball

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

when was he ever labeled THAT?

It was in a scouting report on him that I read a few years back. 

 

More than likely some weird thing someone throw in to jazz the report up a bit. 

 

It was kind of funny so I throw it in my post. 

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On 11/16/2016 at 3:40 AM, thatguy725 said:

It was in a scouting report on him that I read a few years back. 

 

More than likely some weird thing someone throw in to jazz the report up a bit. 

 

It was kind of funny so I throw it in my post. 

Probably by a scout who was fired from the team based on the fact he didnt know the best P in baseball was left handed?  

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So I was looking into PaxMan's contact management issues, and I realized it's almost entirely on groundballs - his FB BABIP and HR/FB were actually better than average. But he got lit up on grounders - almost a .300 BA and the second highest exit velocity.

A much better problem than having trouble with flyballs getting tattooed - a hard hit flyball can turn into a HR, while a hard-hit groundball is usually a single at worst.

Makes me ever so slightly more confident than if his contact management extended to flyballs

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I had pretty much written him off having liked his potential in the past. Wow he seems to have changed a lot, shows you can't write off guys with his talent!

 

Now it just looks like health, innings and pitching deep into games is what he's gotta prove. And for his price that should be well worth taking a gamble on. If it doesn't work out this year I'm out though Pax, last chance buddy!

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With recent acquisitions of Gallardo and Smyly, where do you think he falls in that rotation?  Always worry a little about the No.5 guys early in the season because they arent needed and maybe wont make a start until the middle of April. 

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19 minutes ago, parrothead said:

With recent acquisitions of Gallardo and Smyly, where do you think he falls in that rotation?  Always worry a little about the No.5 guys early in the season because they arent needed and maybe wont make a start until the middle of April. 

As a Mariners fan, I can't say for sure what the organization thinks but most of us fans consider him our #2 or at worst #3. He might even be our #1. The only reason they'd give him the 5th starter treatment is if they wanted to manage his innings, but he's definitely not our #5

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10 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

As a Mariners fan, I can't say for sure what the organization thinks but most of us fans consider him our #2 or at worst #3. He might even be our #1. The only reason they'd give him the 5th starter treatment is if they wanted to manage his innings, but he's definitely not our #5

 

I would say he's their #2. As an Angels fan, I've also seen a lot of him. He's definitely ahead of Gallardo and Smyly.

 

OT: I went to Safeco for the first time in August 2015 when I visited Seattle. I love that stadium! @mysonx3

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

I would say he's their #2. As an Angels fan, I've also seen a lot of him. He's definitely ahead of Gallardo and Smyly.

 

OT: I went to Safeco for the first time in August 2015 when I visited Seattle. I love that stadium! @mysonx3

I've only been to three MLB parks, but Safeco was by far the nicest in my opinion (others were Angel Stadium and Chase Field). They say Cheney Stadium (where the Mariner's AAA team plays) is one of the nicest minor league parks. I've got nothing to compare it to, but it's pretty nice.

Hope you enjoyed the Seattle area!

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More of me gushing about Paxton (if you think I'm bad here, I just got finished writing an article about Paxton where I could scarcely find anything bad to say about him):

 

More than 80% of home runs come from balls with a launch angle of 15-35° and an exit velocity above 97. 30% of those batted balls leave the yard. Needless to say, these are balls you want your pitchers to avoid giving up. "Dangerous flyballs" is my term for them.

I ran a query on Baseball Savant to see which pitchers give up the fewest dangerous flyballs per ball in play. Paxton falls in the thirties, upper quartile in baseball.

Here's the full leaderboard, minimum 300 balls in play:

Dangerous Flyballs per Ball in Play

I haven't run a correlation to HR/9, but I did take a look at the average HR/9 of the Top 10 and Bottom 10:

Top 10 (fewest dangerous FB): 0.69 HR/9 on average

(Driven up a bit by Tyler Anderson - 10th - pitching in Coors, if you remove him it drops to .66)

Bottom 10 (most dangerous FB): 1.70 HR/9 on average

The lowest HR/9 of the bottom 10 is Michael Pineda at 1.38. The highest of the bottom 10 is Tyler Anderson at 0.94. And again, Anderson pitches at Coors (though to be fair the next highest was not far behind - Michael Fulmer at 0.91).

Another way of looking at it: 1.63% of Paxton's batted balls are "dangerous flyballs". If we put that in terms of a hitter, that's James Loney.

This seems like a good thing to be good at, and Paxton is.

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At what round would you be comfortable drafting Paxton (lets assume typical 5x5)? Would you be okay with him as your SP2 or do you consider him to be more of an SP3?

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15 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

At what round would you be comfortable drafting Paxton (lets assume typical 5x5)? Would you be okay with him as your SP2 or do you consider him to be more of an SP3?

I'd be comfortable with him as my SP2, but I'd prefer him as a SP3, or at least draft him in SP3 territory and spend the pick I would've spent on a SP2 to get more offense.

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18 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

At what round would you be comfortable drafting Paxton (lets assume typical 5x5)? Would you be okay with him as your SP2 or do you consider him to be more of an SP3?

Taking him as your #2 is crazy imo. Not only is it incredibly risky in its own right, but it would also be prettt bad strategically to draft that way. Paxton is currently going as the #56 SP off the board in NFBC drafts - well after pick #200 overall on average. Should you really be waiting until the ~15th rd to take your SP2?

If Pax is your #2 that means everyone else in a 12 team league already has on average 4 or 5 SP when you draft him. And your #3 and #4 SP's are going to be guys like Smyly, Walker, Ross, Ray, Kennedy, Snell, Estrada etc. Thats not a formula for success imo. I mean you can target  Paxton and still get him comfortably as a #4, or reach really far and still get him as a #3 while having a more proven and very solid #1 and #2. 

Edited by cs3
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8 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Taking him as #2 is crazy imo. Not only is it incredibly risky in its own right, but it would also be prettt bad strategically to draft that way. Paxton is currently going as the #56 SP off the board in NFBC drafts - after pick #200 overall. If Pax is your #2 that means everyone else in a 12 team league already has on average 4 or 5 SP when you draft him. And your #3 and #4 SP's are going to be guys like Smyly, Walker, Ross, Ray, Kennedy, Snell, Estrada etc. Thats not a formula for success imo. I mean you can target  Paxton and still get him comfortably as a #4, or reach really far and still get him as a #3 while having a more proven and very solid #1 and #2. 

I have him confidently ranked as a SP2, but I agree with you mostly. But you're assuming you're drafting him at ADP. He's definitely on my short list of players to reach for, so I'll be drafting him quite a bit ahead of ADP. But ideally he'd be my SP3 or 4, and it'd be like having an extra SP2.

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Anyone who can strikeout Mike Trout four times in a game gets my attention. Im pretty confident I can get him as a SP4 in my league.

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