brockpapersizer

Matt Harvey 2017 Season Outlook

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Should be an interesting player to follow news wise this off-season . No idea where he goes in drafts but he could have a huge bounce back. A lot is gonna depend on the price, but he's suppose to start the season normally.

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I would draft very late and hope for magic. he's a lotto ticket. guys with his issue don't have a lot of success in returning to form. 

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so doing some digging, it looks like pitchers post-TOS have had a mixed bag as far as recovery goes, and it may just be a small sample size thing. I might upgrade him a few rounds, but I'm still skeptical

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On 11/19/2016 at 2:10 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

so doing some digging, it looks like pitchers post-TOS have had a mixed bag as far as recovery goes, and it may just be a small sample size thing. I might upgrade him a few rounds, but I'm still skeptical

 

I believe he had the less serious TOS surgery, the one Chris Carpenter had.  

 

He's going to be an extremely risky proposition this year, but potentially could be a steal. Those of us stuck with him in Dynasty Leagues, we have to just hope he has somewhat of a productive year.

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56 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

You need an ace in the hole. Mine's Harvey.

 

Same. Good thing we aren't in any leagues together, we are targeting the same "sleepers"

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

Same. Good thing we aren't in any leagues together, we are targeting the same "sleepers"

Actually I don't really know when or if I'll be targeting Harvey I just couldn't resist the urge to quote Ledger's Joker.

But yeah, you stole all my picks in Rotoworld 2017 Mock 1.0

Edited by mysonx3
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11 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I believe he had the less serious TOS surgery, the one Chris Carpenter had.  

 

He's going to be an extremely risky proposition this year, but potentially could be a steal. Those of us stuck with him in Dynasty Leagues, we have to just hope he has somewhat of a productive year.

Overall speaking I like him as a mid value play, loving it if you can get him somewhere in the middle of your rotation.  That said, my league has 2 Mets fans, so probably not going to be much of a value, although sometimes when a guy gets hurt or disappoints, the fans of the team are the first to say no thanks. 

 

Where did he go in Mock 1?  Early NFBC data for ADP has him being drafted as a higher end P3 (for a 12-team league) right in the tier of Garrett Cole, Rich Hill and Felix Hernandez.  No.29 overall for SP.    Highest he was taken was in the 7th round of a 12-teamer and latest was like 15th round.  So you figure that average is probably gonna be in that 9-10th round range.  

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Is ADP is 10th round , that seems high for a guy coming off major arm surgery.  Not TJ, but shoulder surgery is almost as bad and arguably worse.

 

I guess we will see in Spring Training.

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Id probabl rather role the dice on him than Felix. I think Spring Training will clearly raise or drop his stock a bit. If he's throwing well, I'm biting at 9th/10th round. 

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On 1/14/2017 at 0:07 PM, jwblue said:

Is ADP is 10th round , that seems high for a guy coming off major arm surgery.  Not TJ, but shoulder surgery is almost as bad and arguably worse.

 

I guess we will see in Spring Training.

 

He's throwing

 

http://risingapple.com/2017/01/20/mets-harvey-throws-off-mound/?utm_content=buffercd607&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer 

Edited by OrangeCrush

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On 1/14/2017 at 11:07 AM, jwblue said:

Is ADP is 10th round , that seems high for a guy coming off major arm surgery.  Not TJ, but shoulder surgery is almost as bad and arguably worse.

 

I guess we will see in Spring Training.

 

I would say shoulder surgery is FAR worse than elbow surgery (see the long list of dudes never the same after shoulder surgery -- Brandon Webb immediately comes to mind).

 

That said, agree with Brock -- he supposedly had the less severe TOS surgery (sometimes it's the career death knell).  It's such a new thing that we don't have much of a track record of guys coming back. Maybe that means they're never the same (or getting back to the same is the exception, not the rule).  

 

Heard Eno Sarris talking about Harvey and I agree with a lot of his opinions on this one. I wouldn't expect much of anything, and would only take him as a 3rd or 4th arm if I felt really good about the start of my rotation. I think this year you'd hope he gets back to 80% of his top-5 form... but I'm not taking him where I have to count on him. I also tend to play where I get a couple stud arms and then throw a lot of late stuff at the wall (and build my staff from the wire and trades), so Harvey may end up on more of my teams than I'd think as of right now. 

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4 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

I would say shoulder surgery is FAR worse than elbow surgery (see the long list of dudes never the same after shoulder surgery -- Brandon Webb immediately comes to mind).

 

That said, agree with Brock -- he supposedly had the less severe TOS surgery (sometimes it's the career death knell).  It's such a new thing that we don't have much of a track record of guys coming back. Maybe that means they're never the same (or getting back to the same is the exception, not the rule).  

 

Heard Eno Sarris talking about Harvey and I agree with a lot of his opinions on this one. I wouldn't expect much of anything, and would only take him as a 3rd or 4th arm if I felt really good about the start of my rotation. I think this year you'd hope he gets back to 80% of his top-5 form... but I'm not taking him where I have to count on him. I also tend to play where I get a couple stud arms and then throw a lot of late stuff at the wall (and build my staff from the wire and trades), so Harvey may end up on more of my teams than I'd think as of right now. 

 

That's the way I draft. I'll grab a couple guys like Lester and Archer and then fill in the rest with guys like Harvey, Hill, McCullers, Quintana, etc. Definitely can't rely on Harvey, but he could supplement your team. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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stock-vector-danger-warning-sign-templat

 

 

I'm staying far away. His arm seems to be falling off early in his career.

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For anybody who wants encouraging news about Matt's progress here is an update.  It sounds like he got all fixed up and "should" not have any limitations this year.  I can see him as a tremendous value if you can get him as your third or fourth pitcher.

 

 

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/harvey-recently-threw-off-a-mound-on-long-island/213988362

Mets pitcher Matt Harvey said he feels healthy and has experienced no pain in his arm when throwing this offseason, he told reporters at a team charity event earlier this month.

"The way things are feeling now, it feels great," Harvey said, according to ESPN.com.

The TOS had been causing tingling in Harvey's hand, which impacted his pitching grip and performance on the mound last season, when he was just 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA (3.47 FIP).

"That's all gone," he told reporters, according to Newsday. "My hand was really cold all the time. So, I've got some warmth back. No more tingling and the ball's really coming out really good right now."

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1 hour ago, Cdub2k said:

 

stock-vector-danger-warning-sign-templat

 

 

I'm staying far away. His arm seems to be falling off early in his career.

 

Hope my whole league feels this way :D

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all depends on the price....crushed me last yr at a high price....be happy to take a flyer on him at the right discount though....can see him at $10-15 at auction price which is IMO #3-4 SP $ territory...I'd be tempted to grab him at that price with the high upside....especially in a keeper league

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As a met fan I am skeptical. He had no movement at all on his pitches last year and missed his spots way too often. I am hoping it was due to injury but I am not confident. I would grab him as a late round flyer, but doubt he will be there as some will draft higher due to his name.

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just did a mock draft on fantrax....harvey went in the 11th or 12th...what do you guys think?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

just did a mock draft on fantrax....harvey went in the 11th or 12th...what do you guys think?

Pick 153 in the 13th round. Personally thought it was to early but a lot of pitchers went earlier then I expected. And my team shows that I need abetter plan , and actually get there before the 5th round starts.

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