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Trevor Story 2017 Outlook

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Based off of the 2016 thread, Trevor Story will have one of two seasons:

 

1) Hits under .200, with less than 15HR, less than 5SB, and is sent to the minors.

 

2) Hits .500, with more than 40HR, more than 20SB, and wins every away in baseball (yes, both NL and AL Cy Young awards, as well as Manager of the Year).

 

There is no in between. He is "terrible and got lucky" or is the second coming of (insert player name) according to this board.

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That second home run binge before he landed on the DL tells me that he's the real deal. I think a high average isn't likely but should provide good power and should be a good option at shortstop if the usual suspects (Correa Lindor seager machado) are snagged before you can grab them.

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I mean, would probably hit closer to .240 if he didn't hit in Coors but he does, so it doesn't matter.

 

.260-35-11 is completely in the realm of possibility. The biggest problem is that he relies on that binge of homers to keep his average good enough, but he's doing it, and honestly he's been massacring the ball either way. His Hard% is pretty nuts. 

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It's the insane flyball rates all throughout the minors and in MLB that make me think the HR are here to stay. Doubt he hits .270 again though

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5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Based on?

Only 415PA... 

 

But seriously. I still can't believe some people doubt him. The kid has wheels and power. What more do you want? Even if he hits .240, would you be upset when it comes with 10-15SB and 25+HRs? At SS? Damn.

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2 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

Fools gold

 

1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

Based on?

 

Yeah I'd like an explanation on that too-- the peripherals are pretty legit to what he's doing. Maybe it's largely a coors effect but, again ,he plays in Coors, so it doesn't matter. 

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Only 415PA... 

 

But seriously. I still can't believe some people doubt him. The kid has wheels and power. What more do you want? Even if he hits .240, would you be upset when it comes with 10-15SB and 25+HRs? At SS? Damn.

Before anyone gets their panties in a wad, I am NOT saying he's  Semien, but these numbers are,  Semien went 238, 27 and 10, would you really be happy if Story does this?

Edited by FISH ON
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1 minute ago, FISH ON said:

Before anyone gets their panties in a wad, I am NOT saying he's  Semien, but these numbers are,  Semien went 238, 27 and 10, would you really be happy if Story does this?

 

Why are these two players comparable for any reason other than position? 

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Look above my post, bluejaysin2030 posted this: 

1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

Based on?

Only 415PA... 

 

But seriously. I still can't believe some people doubt him. The kid has wheels and power. What more do you want? Even if he hits .240, would you be upset when it comes with 10-15SB and 25+HRs? At SS? Damn.

That's what I was replying to, he asked if anyone would be upset at these numbers, so I replied that Semien put up those numbers last season, man,m I knew someone would get their panties in a wad... I was quoting bluejaysin2030, he posted those numbers, and asked if anyone would be upset, my post about Semien was in reply. because Semien DID put up those numbers. sheesh, reading 101,

 

Edited by FISH ON

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From analyzing his plate discipline from both numbers and with game footage, I think Story is a .230-20HR-10SB type hitter. I just can't see him hitting above .250. You'd probably have to use a top 50 pick to get him. I play in a 20-team league, and I cannot take someone with that kind of risk, that early.

 

 

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14 hours ago, FISH ON said:

Look above my post, bluejaysin2030 posted this: 

Only 415PA... 

 

But seriously. I still can't believe some people doubt him. The kid has wheels and power. What more do you want? Even if he hits .240, would you be upset when it comes with 10-15SB and 25+HRs? At SS? Damn.

That's what I was replying to, he asked if anyone would be upset at these numbers, so I replied that Semien put up those numbers last season, man,m I knew someone would get their panties in a wad... I was quoting bluejaysin2030, he posted those numbers, and asked if anyone would be upset, my post about Semien was in reply. because Semien DID put up those numbers. sheesh, reading 101,

 

 

Ok you take Semien, I'll take Story.

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Well you have to reach for Story but not for Semien 

 

20 hr seems a little light for a projection of hhh gets 550 ab. Probably closer to 25 than 20. That being said, ss is a lot deeper than it use to be. I wouldn't pay a premium for Story.

Edited by brockpapersizer
Yasss

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26 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

From analyzing his plate discipline from both numbers and with game footage, I think Story is a .230-20HR-10SB type hitter. I just can't see him hitting above .250. You'd probably have to use a top 50 pick to get him. I play in a 20-team league, and I cannot take someone with that kind of risk, that early.

 

 

 

Fair enough, I"m not saying where I'd draft him, but don't you find 20 HRs extremely light? That's the thing: HRs are hits too, and if he hits 30, he'll drive up his BA significantly.

 

Here's some fangraphs things:

Very high 23.6% LD%

Ridiculous 44.9% Hard%

 

and his 12.5% SwStr isn't the worst. His chase rate is also not as bad as you may think, he just chases really bad ones sometimes.

 

Some split things: 

 

If you take out Mar/Apr (where he had 10 HRs) his HR pace is still a hair over 35 HRs for 155 Games. (Without the removal it's 43+)


Strikeout rates by month: 36.3%, 32.2%, 27.7%, 28.6%. Not even close to ideal by the end, but he was starting to prove he isn't a 30+% guy. 

 

His BABIPs by month: .304, .362, .364, .326. The two middle ones are slightly high, but we're nitpicking. Overall it was .343, which isn't THAT high for a guy who hits the ball hard, has a high LD%, and has good speed. (oh yeah, and plays in Coors)

 

His BA s by month: .261, .259, .284, and .288. So they not only improved, but in that last month of July it went slightly up to spite a 40 point decrease in BABIP.

 

I understand it, the worry is there for some extent, and the thumb is a nightmare waiting to happen, but this is who we thought Javier Baez was two-three years ago before he made his MLB debut when people were giving peak numbers of .260-40-15. If he hits 30-35 Homers, his BA will be helped out significantly by the fact that those are, of course, hits. Other than the thumb there really isn't a statistical argument I can find that says he's going to hit .230. And considering he came around to MLB pitchers and not the other way around as the year progressed, I don't see it trending in teh way that pitchers are just going to start killing him. His BB% is high, he lays off enough bad pitches to get pitches that are in teh zone, he swings REALLY hard, and he plays in Coors. 

 

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Agree. Not sure why people care about the whole "if he didn't play at Coors" argument. That's kind of the point, he does play at Coors and will for the next 3-4 years, and hits pretty hard, even outside of Coors. Sure, him and Semien could be the same kind of hitters, but Semien doesn't play in Coors does he? Story does, and hits much harder. For fantasy purposes, that's all I care about.

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3 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

From analyzing his plate discipline from both numbers and with game footage, I think Story is a .230-20HR-10SB type hitter. I just can't see him hitting above .250. You'd probably have to use a top 50 pick to get him. I play in a 20-team league, and I cannot take someone with that kind of risk, that early.

 

27 homers in 347 ABs will translate into 20 homers max in what I assume your are assuming is a full year?  Yeah sure ... not.  There is "arm chair analyzing" and there are concrete results. 

Add that to all the "arm chair analysis" we got last year as to how badly he would do and than and, nope, I'll take the proven results over the unproven theories any day.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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I'd just like to point out that I was touting this guy HARD in his minors thread.

 

Insert self-back-patting-contraption GIF here

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4 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

From analyzing his plate discipline from both numbers and with game footage, I think Story is a .230-20HR-10SB type hitter. I just can't see him hitting above .250. You'd probably have to use a top 50 pick to get him. I play in a 20-team league, and I cannot take someone with that kind of risk, that early.

 

 

If you actually analyzed his plate discipline, either statistically or via game footage, you'd realize he doesn't have bad plate discipline, at all. Statistically, he's actually better than average. On film, probably about average in my eyes.

His problem is that he has trouble making contact with the pitches he does swing at, not that he swings at bad ones.

Also, his HR/FB would need to fall to about 11% for him to only hit 20 HR over a full season, which would be below average given he plays in Coors. If you think he has below average power, you haven't watched him.

Edited by mysonx3
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5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

If you actually analyzed his plate 

discipline, either statistically or via game footage, you'd realize he doesn't have bad plate discipline, at all. Statistically, he's actually better than average. On film, probably about average in my eyes.

His problem is that he has trouble making contact with the pitches he does swing at, not that he swings at bad ones.

 

This guy gets it^^

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By Plate discipline, I meant in a general term describing all aspects of plate events the batter experiences. I'm not just talking about his eye.

 

But anyways, no point in debating cycles around this. We'll just have to wait and see next year. I won't be investing in Story while most of you will, and the benefits will play out accordingly. 

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7 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

27 homers in 347 ABs will translate into 20 homers max in what I assume your are assuming is a full year?  Yeah sure ... not.  There is "arm chair analyzing" and there are concrete results. 

Add that to all the "arm chair analysis" we got last year as to how badly he would do and than and, nope, I'll take the proven results over the unproven theories any day.

 

Weren't you the guy in the other threads saying something about the ball being juiced this year? 

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