2ndCitySox

Greg Bird 2017 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Cheap 30 homers next year with a decent .340ish OBP?

yankee fan and id love to say yes no doubt, but shoulder injuries can be tricky.  see matt kemp

 

if you pro rate his 2015 he was on pace for like 40 homers though. and he passed the eye test.

 

cant say 30 homers is his bottom though

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Tough to say that he will put up 30 coming off a shoulder injury and having a year off. 20 would be a more realistic expectation since he will be rusty early and the Yanks don't have great protection in the lineup. 

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like jfazz mentioned, he passes the eye test. real easy power, I'd be surprised if he hit less than 25 in a full season with that porch

Definitely someone on my target list, and unlikely to be taken in the first 10-12 rounds-- unless my perception is off

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5 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

like jfazz mentioned, he passes the eye test. real easy power, I'd be surprised if he hit less than 25 in a full season with that porch

Definitely someone on my target list, and unlikely to be taken in the first 10-12 rounds-- unless my perception is off

I feel like he'll be under the radar until March once the NY media hypes him up as the promising heir to Teixeira and he destroys spring training. Regardless, I think he's in for a strong season next year.

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On 11/20/2016 at 7:44 PM, thatguy725 said:

Tough to say that he will put up 30 coming off a shoulder injury and having a year off. 20 would be a more realistic expectation since he will be rusty early and the Yanks don't have great protection in the lineup. 

 

Not much protection in lineup, I think it will be better than people give credit even with the youth movement. That said, you dont need protection to hit HR if there arent many threats, teams are still going to pitch to the guy because they arent afraid of whats around them.

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He's clearly going to be drafted as a cheap ci option. I doubt the price will leave for much of a bust.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

He's clearly going to be drafted as a cheap ci option. I doubt the price will leave for much of a bust.

 

Yeah I'm curious to where his ADP will be.  As mentioned above shoulder injuries can be very tricky.  But I think he could net a solid draft value but I wouldn't expect over 25 HRs and I think he has a far better chance of reaching a .340 OBP compared to 30 HRs.  But keep in mind he missed an entire season due to a tricky injury and virtually enters the league in 2017 as a sophomore.  So while Greg Bird has a lot of upside he has a lot of things working against him as well.

 

But like Brock said he could slip pretty late in drafts which will leave room for value. 

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6 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah I'm curious to where his ADP will be.  As mentioned above shoulder injuries can be very tricky.  But I think he could net a solid draft value but I wouldn't expect over 25 HRs and I think he has a far better chance of reaching a .340 OBP compared to 30 HRs.  But keep in mind he missed an entire season due to a tricky injury and virtually enters the league in 2017 as a sophomore.  So while Greg Bird has a lot of upside he has a lot of things working against him as well.

 

But like Brock said he could slip pretty late in drafts which will leave room for value. 

 

Hes gonna be ranked outside the top 15 1b easily, so thats most likely a CI.  3b is also very deep so CI options wont be that scarce either.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/way-too-early-rankings-first-base/

 

This fangraphs article has him outside the top 30 1bs, and I expet him to climb that all offseason, but I can't imagine it getting that much lower than 20.

 

He'll be a great "oh yeah, that guy pick" and you'll easily able to cut him if he bombs.

 

Currently roster resource has him on the good side of a platoon role but projected to bat clean up.  So he's an incredible value right now.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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11 hours ago, dzemens said:

 

Not much protection in lineup, I think it will be better than people give credit even with the youth movement. That said, you dont need protection to hit HR if there arent many threats, teams are still going to pitch to the guy because they arent afraid of whats around them.

While they will pitch to him, doubt he will see as many pitches to hit out if the people around him are not doing much. Why throw the ball where he can hit it out if the guys in front don't get on base and the guys behind him just have so-so power?

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Before everyone goes all line-up heavy read last year what they said about Freddy Freeman before the 2016 season started.  Then read his stats at the end of the year.  Also, he was the only power bat in the line-up until Matt Kemp arrived in Atlanta mid-season then Freeman suddenly had one other power bat to protect him.  Bird will have Gary Sanchez all year.  And if the Yankees land Beltran or Encarnacion for DH you see how quickly things add up here?

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Before everyone goes all line-up heavy read last year what they said about Freddy Freeman before the 2016 season started.  Then read his stats at the end of the year.  Also, he was the only power bat in the line-up until Matt Kemp arrived in Atlanta mid-season then Freeman suddenly had one other power bat to protect him.  Bird will have Gary Sanchez all year.  And if the Yankees land Beltran or Encarnacion for DH you see how quickly things add up here?

 

Not only am I with you, but I couldn't care less about lineup protection with hitters im drafting in the range of where Bird will go. The range of outcomes for Bird varies an incredible amount, I really don't think lineup protection will matter that much for his value. The fact that he'll have a premium spot in a lineup at Yankee stadium as a lefty outweighs a lot of things.

 

 I'd probably be more concerned about him losing ABs against lefties than anything else. 

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I agree about the line-up, brockpapersizer.  That is just icing on the cake and not the cake itself.  Get the cake first and it will be yummy even without the icing.  When the icing arrives it is just a nice bonus.

But who would Bird lose playing time to against lefties?  Wouldn't the Yankees want a full time 1B in the long run and give the guy a chance to develop thus getting to face lefties?  The Yankees traditionally aren't one of those weird "Platoons 'R' Us" teams like Arizona and sometimes Colorado.

I know they used Gary Sanchez at DH last season almost every day he wasn't catching wanting to keep his bat in the line-up  And if they do get a full time DH I can see Sanchez cutting into ABs by playing a little first or Encarnacion playing some if they get him with Sanchez DH some.  So maybe the best scenario for Bird owners would be to hope Beltran and especially Encarnacion end up elsewhere and the Yankees end up with some second tier guy in a "shared" DH situation.

Other than Sanchez is there anyone else currently on the team that would take ABs away from Bird?

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7 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I agree about the line-up, brockpapersizer.  That is just icing on the cake and not the cake itself.  Get the cake first and it will be yummy even without the icing.  When the icing arrives it is just a nice bonus.

 

Bro, how hungry are you right now?

 

7 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But who would Bird lose playing time to against lefties? 

Other than Sanchez is there anyone else currently on the team that would take ABs away from Bird?

 

Just basing it off RR, says Tyler Austin.  Can Bird hit lefies ok or is he dreadful, Im unsure of his minor league splits and no idea how much stock I can put into his original 42 AB, but he had a 752 OPS.

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1. I haven't had lunch yet (east coast going on 1 PM) and am really hungry.  Please send me over a pizza asap.  I'll save the cake for later.

2. Yankees then had better make sure Bird faces any and all lefties in spring training so he can build up his experience level and stats against same. 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Like him as a cheap sleeper. 

 

I'm concerned about his power after his surgery though, but cheap gamble. 

 

I am also concerned he's a guy that will gain a lot of traction as a sleeper and be over drafted, losing his "cheaper sleeper" value.

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On 11/23/2016 at 0:32 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Bro, how hungry are you right now?

 

 

Just basing it off RR, says Tyler Austin.  Can Bird hit lefies ok or is he dreadful, Im unsure of his minor league splits and no idea how much stock I can put into his original 42 AB, but he had a 752 OPS.

 

Minor league splits, he hits lefties alright ranging from a high .700 OPS to a 1+ in the minors. That and the fact that in a time when they are rebuilding to a degree they may be more apt to give him work and let him learn. I dont know that Austin is really the answer in either case, outside of 63 AB in AAA and 23 AB in the majors last year, Austin has never really been more than a mid .700 OPS against LHP.

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2 minutes ago, dzemens said:

 

Minor league splits, he hits lefties alright ranging from a high .700 OPS to a 1+ in the minors. That and the fact that in a time when they are rebuilding to a degree they may be more apt to give him work and let him learn. I dont know that Austin is really the answer in either case, outside of 63 AB in AAA and 23 AB in the majors last year, Austin has never really been more than a mid .700 OPS against LHP.

 

I'm probably a little jaded by my Conforto and Reed optimism last year but is that even a good thing if they let him learn vs lefties? I guess maybe beneficial if you're a dynasty owner.  But  just because he gets a shot vs lefties doesn't necessarily mean that's a good thing.

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'm probably a little jaded by my Conforto and Reed optimism last year but is that even a good thing if they let him learn vs lefties? I guess maybe beneficial if you're a dynasty owner.  But  just because he gets a shot vs lefties doesn't necessarily mean that's a good thing.

 

Just speaking from a functional real world perspective. He hasnt been flailing away against lefties through the minors and there is really nothing to lose for the organization next year in allowing exposure to see what he is. If he can carry a mid .700 OPS vs LHP at the MLB level then they really wont have a reason for a strict platoon type situation. That and if you are going to platoon him with someone it would generally be someone with a track record of hitting lefties. Not a guy with less than 100 AB of success against lefties.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'm probably a little jaded by my Conforto and Reed optimism last year but is that even a good thing if they let him learn vs lefties? I guess maybe beneficial if you're a dynasty owner.  But  just because he gets a shot vs lefties doesn't necessarily mean that's a good thing.

the thing is...conforto did not really have any experience in the bigs

 

Bird looked VERY professional in his 1/4 season.

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47 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

the thing is...conforto did not really have any experience in the bigs

 

Bird looked VERY professional in his 1/4 season.

Actually, Conforto had more PAs in 2015 than Bird. They had similar slash lines, and Conforto K'd far less.

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10 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Actually, Conforto had more PAs in 2015 than Bird. They had similar slash lines, and Conforto K'd far less.

sorry did not know that

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

the thing is...conforto did not really have any experience in the bigs

 

Bird looked VERY professional in his 1/4 season.

 

Looked good in a tailored suit?

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On 11/22/2016 at 8:40 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Hes gonna be ranked outside the top 15 1b easily, so thats most likely a CI.  3b is also very deep so CI options wont be that scarce either.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/way-too-early-rankings-first-base/

 

This fangraphs article has him outside the top 30 1bs, and I expet him to climb that all offseason, but I can't imagine it getting that much lower than 20.

 

 

*2 month bump*

 

A fairly big margin in ADP to start spring training. Sharps at NFBC have him 1B19 at pick 235, Yahoo has him nearly 100 picks later.

 

Headlines a sleeper list today

http://www.foxsports.com/fantasy/baseball/gallery/draft-guide-strategy-advice-hitter-sleepers-020617

 

Eno loves him in Episode 417 of the Sleeper & Bust, around the 1:03 mark

Edited by bbythepier
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By the time all the sleeper lists are out Bird will be drafted in every 14 team league out there and in every 10 team league with a Yankee fan. 

 

Book it. 

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