Impeccable

Off-season Closer Thread 2016/17

696 posts in this topic

12 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So Britton... that doesn't sound good

 

Yeah, just read about this.  I wonder who might be next in line in Baltimore.

 

According to ESPN it'd be Brad Brach.

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I'd love Brad Brach for any amount of time as a closer if Britton were to miss time. If Britton were to get a heavy discount and Brach to go too late, they may be worth two later picks to get get Elite closer value without a higher pick. 

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Britton should be ready near opening day, based on past pitcher healing times, but it is relatively easy to re-injure. I will be owning some stock in Brach just in case.

Edited by itaos

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Regarding Brach, keep in mind that it's not unusual for a good setup guy to collapse when asked to close. Last year he had 7 save chances and blew 5 of them. It's a small sample size, but proceed with caution.

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2 hours ago, phizzics said:

Regarding Brach, keep in mind that it's not unusual for a good setup guy to collapse when asked to close. Last year he had 7 save chances and blew 5 of them. It's a small sample size, but proceed with caution.

Misleading stat? Asking, not saying it is. But, might this have something to do with having runners in scoring position when he entered the game in the mid-late innings of a close game? Not all blown saves are equal.  Unless there is such thing as a blown hold, as I've never played in a holds league.

Edited by MugsyBogues

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2 hours ago, phizzics said:

Regarding Brach, keep in mind that it's not unusual for a good setup guy to collapse when asked to close. Last year he had 7 save chances and blew 5 of them. It's a small sample size, but proceed with caution.

 

3 minutes ago, MugsyBogues said:

Misleading stat? Asking, not saying it is. But, might this have something to do with having runners in scoring position when he entered the game in the mid-late innings of a close game? Not all blown saves are equal.  Unless there is such thing as a blown hold, as I've never played in a holds league.

^^

 

2016 Split by 9th Inning: 

11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 14/3 K/BB

 

Brach also had 0 ER in 3/5 of those chances. 

 

BS1: Entered in 7th with a runner on 3rd and 1 out and gave up a sac fly. Not that tragic or indicative.

BS2: 7th Inning of a 3-2 Game. Started inning, gave up two doubles over the course. Left tied 3-3

BS3: 7th Inning of a 3-2 Game. Started inning by giving up solo HR. Left tied 3-3. 

BS4: 8th Inning of a 3-2 Game. A Jonathan Schoop Error was Scored as the reason for surrendering the run. Left tied 3-3. 

BS5: 6th Inning of a 1-0 Game. Comes in with Runners on 1st and 2nd. Proceeds to K 2 of 3 but load the bags. Error on Chris Davis should've ended the inning. Gives up a homer to Benintendi on the next AB. Left down 5-1. 0 ER. 

 

So all five BS weren't even in the 8th. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

^^

 

2016 Split by 9th Inning: 

11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 14/3 K/BB

 

Brach also had 0 ER in 3/5 of those chances. 

 

BS1: Entered in 7th with a runner on 3rd and 1 out and gave up a sac fly. Not that tragic or indicative.

BS2: 7th Inning of a 3-2 Game. Started inning, gave up two doubles over the course. Left tied 3-3

BS3: 7th Inning of a 3-2 Game. Started inning by giving up solo HR. Left tied 3-3. 

BS4: 8th Inning of a 3-2 Game. A Jonathan Schoop Error was Scored as the reason for surrendering the run. Left tied 3-3. 

BS5: 6th Inning of a 1-0 Game. Comes in with Runners on 1st and 2nd. Proceeds to K 2 of 3 but load the bags. Error on Chris Davis should've ended the inning. Gives up a homer to Benintendi on the next AB. Left down 5-1. 0 ER. 

 

So all five BS weren't even in the 8th. 

You the man. Seriously, stay out of my leagues! ;)

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15 hours ago, phizzics said:

Regarding Brach, keep in mind that it's not unusual for a good setup guy to collapse when asked to close. Last year he had 7 save chances and blew 5 of them. It's a small sample size, but proceed with caution.

You can't evaluate non-closers by blown saves. If a guy enters with a one run lead to start the 8th in order to get the ball to the closer, they have a chance to blow a save and not a chance to get a save.

The stat save opportunities is bogus, because it in no way measures actual opportunity to save games. As @taobball pointed out, he was 0/0 in actual save opportunities.

People always bring up these stats when an eighth inning guy gets promoted, but they're 100% useless because they're based on a bogus stat (save opportunities)

Edited by mysonx3

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On 2/21/2017 at 9:38 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

Listened to to Rizzo interview yesterday.  It sounds like it's going to be Kelley or Treinin.  I think Glover is a longshot.  He said he wasn't currently discussing any trades.  Read something where Dusty was questioning if Kelley could hold up with his arm history.  I do believe this is a coin flip or 60/40 Kelley Treinin at best.  Will be decided this spring

If it comes down to Kelley v Treinen I'll invest in Kelley 99 times out of a hundred. Treinen's just a guy. Kelley's a legit solid MR masquerading as a closer type. There's nothing wrong with Kelley being your closer if you're a competitive team except you didn't set your sights high. Treinen's just not a closer, he's a run of the mill RP. Glover could be a flameout or he could be a stud. Treinen, we know who he is. We know who Kelley is too. Kelley's better than Treinen. Glover could be bad or good. One things for certain here, don't invest in Treinen.

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I think Kelley takes the gig and runs with it. Treinen is okay, but a 2.00 K/BB isn't very good. Kelley had a 7.07 K/BB last season.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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1 hour ago, maguirekm said:

If it comes down to Kelley v Treinen I'll invest in Kelley 99 times out of a hundred. Treinen's just a guy. Kelley's a legit solid MR masquerading as a closer type. There's nothing wrong with Kelley being your closer if you're a competitive team except you didn't set your sights high. Treinen's just not a closer, he's a run of the mill RP. Glover could be a flameout or he could be a stud. Treinen, we know who he is. We know who Kelley is too. Kelley's better than Treinen. Glover could be bad or good. One things for certain here, don't invest in Treinen.

how exactly is kelley not a closer type?

since 2013 (random arbitrary date, but it seems to be when things "clicked"):     32.1 K%,     7.9 BB%,     FIP 3.05,     SIERA 2.46,     ERA 3.49

that's pretty dominant, especially when you factor in almost all of his stats have improved each season.

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14 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

how exactly is kelley not a closer type?

since 2013 (random arbitrary date, but it seems to be when things "clicked"):     32.1 K%,     7.9 BB%,     FIP 3.05,     SIERA 2.46,     ERA 3.49

that's pretty dominant, especially when you factor in almost all of his stats have improved each season.

 

Kelley is certainly a "closer type". He should thrive in that role. 

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25 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

how exactly is kelley not a closer type?

since 2013 (random arbitrary date, but it seems to be when things "clicked"):     32.1 K%,     7.9 BB%,     FIP 3.05,     SIERA 2.46,     ERA 3.49

that's pretty dominant, especially when you factor in almost all of his stats have improved each season.

Haha. I was pretty clearly stating how he should be the closer, and yet this is your response. Good Lord. I never said Kelley wasn't the closer type. Only that it was an unprecedented move for a win-now team to go into the season without a proven closer. I clearly have stated in 2-3 posts that Kelley is the guy in Washington. Calm down.

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I re-read my post and can't in any way understand where OSB is coming from. I said Kelley will be the closer no doubt, yet he says I'm crazy to doubt Kelley. Strange.

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7 minutes ago, maguirekm said:

I re-read my post and can't in any way understand where OSB is coming from. I said Kelley will be the closer no doubt, yet he says I'm crazy to doubt Kelley. Strange.

Kelley's a legit solid MR masquerading as a closer type. There's nothing wrong with Kelley being your closer if you're a competitive team except you didn't set your sights high. 

 

This is your quote.. unless low expectations are a ringing endorsement and someone masquerading is considered good, I'm not sure where your positive statements are. 

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1 minute ago, osb_tensor said:

Kelley's a legit solid MR masquerading as a closer type. There's nothing wrong with Kelley being your closer if you're a competitive team except you didn't set your sights high. 

 

This is your quote.. unless low expectations are a ringing endorsement and someone masquerading is considered good, I'm not sure where your positive statements are. 

There was a debate on previous pages on Treinen or Kelley. I was actually coming out strongly in favor of Kelley. And I consider him a fine closer candidate. But yeah, I mean, I will say if you're a team with championship aspirations, such as the Nats, you'd rather have a better option. That's where I was going there.

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Just now, maguirekm said:

There was a debate on previous pages on Treinen or Kelley. I was actually coming out strongly in favor of Kelley. And I consider him a fine closer candidate. But yeah, I mean, I will say if you're a team with championship aspirations, such as the Nats, you'd rather have a better option. That's where I was going there.

and that's what i don't agree with.

kelley is dominant in late inning relief and will be just fine as the closer, barring injury, on a team with championship aspirations. IMO, obviously.

 

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Ok, fair enough. I consider Kelley an acceptable option for the Nats, and you consider him an exceptional option. Point taken.

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4 hours ago, maguirekm said:

If it comes down to Kelley v Treinen I'll invest in Kelley 99 times out of a hundred. Treinen's just a guy. Kelley's a legit solid MR masquerading as a closer type. There's nothing wrong with Kelley being your closer if you're a competitive team except you didn't set your sights high. Treinen's just not a closer, he's a run of the mill RP. Glover could be a flameout or he could be a stud. Treinen, we know who he is. We know who Kelley is too. Kelley's better than Treinen. Glover could be bad or good. One things for certain here, don't invest in Treinen.

 

Disagree on Treinen. Maybe he's just a guy in terms of K or K/BB but he has an absolute bowling ball of a sinker that is only comparable to closers Dyson and Britton. People vastly underrate HR Rate when it comes to closers. When your career Flyball%'s are: 

 

19.2%

15.3%

19.6%

 

You're not going to give up a ton of homers or damage. 

 

His GB% was up to 66% in 2016. Don't get me wrong, groundballs aren't strikeout, but that's the second highest rate by a reliever in 2016. I don't think it's definitive that Treinen is just a guy or that Kelley is better just because his skillset is atypical for the role. He's by far good enough to carry the job for the year and look pretty good in ratios doing it too. 

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26 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Disagree on Treinen. Maybe he's just a guy in terms of K or K/BB but he has an absolute bowling ball of a sinker that is only comparable to closers Dyson and Britton. People vastly underrate HR Rate when it comes to closers. When your career Flyball%'s are: 

 

19.2%

15.3%

19.6%

 

You're not going to give up a ton of homers or damage. 

 

His GB% was up to 66% in 2016. Don't get me wrong, groundballs aren't strikeout, but that's the second highest rate by a reliever in 2016. I don't think it's definitive that Treinen is just a guy or that Kelley is better just because his skillset is atypical for the role. He's by far good enough to carry the job for the year and look pretty good in ratios doing it too. 

 

I'd want Treinan as the fireman because of that GB rate.  Bring him in needing a double play or gb.  Unless the bases are loaded a walk isn't going to hurt Treinen as much in a fireman role because of the GB rate.

 

Have Kelley start the 9th with clean innings.  

 

Plus,  if you're a manager worried about Kelley's arm health the dedicated 9th inning role is actually an easier situation to predict.  A "fireman" has to be able to get loose quickly.

 

 

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1 minute ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'd want Treinan as the fireman because of that GB rate.  Bring him in needing a double play or gb.

 

Have Kelley start the 9th with clean innings.  

 

Plus,  if you're a manager worried about Kelley's arm health the dedicated 9th inning role is actually an easier situation to predict.  A "fireman" has to be able to get loose quickly.

 

 

 

Yeah I mean not necessarily in disagreement about who should go where I think they should both be able to handle the job I just don't agree with the assessment that he's just some random arm because he has a sub-9 K/9 to whereas I think he actually does have an above average skill set for a reliever. 

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Just listened to a Huston street interview.  Said he had minor surgery on his knee that was due to overcompensating for an oblique injury.  Said his mechanics were all off and he's been throwing since November to correct it as opposed to January when he usually starts.  Down 15lbs too.  Said he put himself in this position and is ready to prove he's one of the best closers in the game again.  

 

So team this with Bedrosians groin injury and you'd have to think Streets the favorite.  Will have to see how he looks in the spring 

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2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Just listened to a Huston street interview.  Said he had minor surgery on his knee that was due to overcompensating for an oblique injury.  Said his mechanics were all off and he's been throwing since November to correct it as opposed to January when he usually starts.  Down 15lbs too.  Said he put himself in this position and is ready to prove he's one of the best closers in the game again.  

 

So team this with Bedrosians groin injury and you'd have to think Streets the favorite.  Will have to see how he looks in the spring 

 

To be honest, based on those who say it's Street and those who say it's Bedrosian, I feel like a lot of the pro-Bedrosian myself included is us projecting on the Angels what we want to happen. I think Scocia is gonna try his hardest to give it to the vet. 

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I don't care either way.  Have Street in some leagues and have had Bedrosian since he was in the minors

 

Street has been a stud most of his career.  2.97 era even after pitching in Colorado.  40 saves two years ago.  He started out fine last year then he got hurt and the wheels fell off.  If his problems are injury & mechanics related it's not far fetched he'd hold onto the job all year

 

in many leagues Cam

is being taken ahead of Street

Edited by kidtwentytwo

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16 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Just listened to a Huston street interview.  Said he had minor surgery on his knee that was due to overcompensating for an oblique injury.  Said his mechanics were all off and he's been throwing since November to correct it as opposed to January when he usually starts.  

 

I expect this is how Greinke hurt his shoulder last year as well. 

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