svdude

Rich Hill 2017 Outlook

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Such a tough one because the guys numbers when he pitches are among the best in the game, he strikes out over a K per inning, his ERA over 24 starts the last two years is under 2 and his WHIP is under 1.   Not many starting pitchers have those numbers, maybe 1 (Kershaw) but that said, the guy will be 37 in March, been pretty much a journeyman 4A type pitcher his career going usually long relief, spot starts, in the minors etc.  So what to make of this?

 

Like most things in the fantasy game, probably has a lot to do with his going rate, which honestly I think in many leagues out there for the numbers he puts up will be a value, when you look at his numbers vs /injury/age/pedigree my guess is most will weigh heavily on the latter and not value him as high as someone else.  But for me it would also have to do with format. 

 

* In a roto league where every P is active, so when a guy gets hurt, I replace him with whats on the WW, which in a 14 team league when approximately 100 starting pitchers are gone, is not much, so while you might get 20 great starts from him, your gonna get 11-12 from Waiver Wire fodder.  If I am in a league like this (which I am) I probably am pretty cautious about him. 

 

* If I am in a shallower league that sets line up, you have a bench, so your replacement is someone you drafted, not Waiver Wire, I probably am more inclined to take a risk on him. 

 

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How many innings do we "count on"?

 

i don't think you can "count on" rich hill. Period. He's like 37 and just went over 100 major league innings for the second time of his career, the first being in 2007.

 

to me, the ratios and the peripherals were so immaculate last year you have to start looking at him decently early in drafts, but man I would want to feel pretty good about what I had because I don't really consider any numbers quite "bankable" with Rich Hill.

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I read somewhere that in the last 2 years he's 2nd only to Kershaw in ERA and WHIP for SP, but is also bottom 10 SP (total, not %) when it comes to IP.  I tend to avoid players with higher risk, but he's so tempting because of the elite numbers when he does pitch.  Should he be treated like an elite RP?  Count on him for great ratios, great K/9, and hope for some 10 wins and 100-120IP?

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26 minutes ago, svdude said:

I read somewhere that in the last 2 years he's 2nd only to Kershaw in ERA and WHIP for SP, but is also bottom 10 SP (total, not %) when it comes to IP.  I tend to avoid players with higher risk, but he's so tempting because of the elite numbers when he does pitch.  Should he be treated like an elite RP?  Count on him for great ratios, great K/9, and hope for some 10 wins and 100-120IP?

 

Again, I wouldn't count on Rich Hill for anything. I think this belief will be widespread and let him be affordable in drafts, but more than most players that you'll draft in his range, I think Rich Hill could pull a complete Houdini and vanish as quickly as he seemingly reappeared out of no where. I wouldn't count on 100 IP any more than I'd count on 175. I'd take a shot at him if he fell late enough because of those elite ratios, but man am I wwriting all those projections in pencil.

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28 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Again, I wouldn't count on Rich Hill for anything.


Being that his curveball is a source of infinite truth, I count on Rich Hill for virtually everything.

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He is an interesting player for this coming year.  I could see him having one of the widest ranges of draft positions next year.  In my keeper league, I have him at the same price as Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon.  I think because of upside and more certainty with IP I would put him below both of them.  Probably crazy, but...

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9 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Contemplating keeping this guy for $10 next year. I think he could probably be had for less at auction though.

260 cap?  I would think 10 give or take a few bucks is probably right around where he could be, like I said, I think most will look at age, lack of pedigree and be skeptical.  

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4 minutes ago, parrothead said:

260 cap?  I would think 10 give or take a few bucks is probably right around where he could be, like I said, I think most will look at age, lack of pedigree and be skeptical.  

Yes 260. I am never one to pay for pitching. I guess it depends where he ends up. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

How many innings do we "count on"?

 

i don't think you can "count on" rich hill. Period. He's like 37 and just went over 100 major league innings for the second time of his career, the first being in 2007.

 

to me, the ratios and the peripherals were so immaculate last year you have to start looking at him decently early in drafts, but man I would want to feel pretty good about what I had because I don't really consider any numbers quite "bankable" with Rich Hill.

I suppose you could say hes a "young" 37 since he hasn't pitched a whole lot of big league innings. Kidding aside- Hill is such an enigma to me heading into next year its tough to evaluate him since the sample size is limited to basically 130 innings the past two seasons. Prior to that he didn't have any appreciable big league service until 2009. That said his performance the past year + has been outstanding and numbers of his caliber are tough to find even though it at least half feels like I'm chasing a mirage. I've seen that curveball its definitely a legit pitch. It'll be very hard for me to not chase those elite ratios he posted last year even with his questionable durability and minimal track record. I'll be very interested to see what kind of money he gets and where he lands this off season. 

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1 hour ago, svdude said:

He is an interesting player for this coming year.  I could see him having one of the widest ranges of draft positions next year.  In my keeper league, I have him at the same price as Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon.  I think because of upside and more certainty with IP I would put him below both of them.  Probably crazy, but...

If you're basing it on upside, you should easily take Hill over either of those two. But yes, Rodon and Ray have more certainty with IP

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Owned this guy last year, never again.  He's too good to drop but not reliable to enough to keep in your lineup.  Sure, you'll get a good half season out of him but unless you can predict injuries he's an absolute headache.  He's basically "questionable" every single start and his age isn't doing him any favors.  Unless he's there really late in the draft, I'll pass.

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17 minutes ago, Bill Blazejowski said:

Owned this guy last year, never again.  He's too good to drop but not reliable to enough to keep in your lineup.  Sure, you'll get a good half season out of him but unless you can predict injuries he's an absolute headache.  He's basically "questionable" every single start and his age isn't doing him any favors.  Unless he's there really late in the draft, I'll pass.

 

If he repeats last year he'll be a steal. Period. Especially in a roto format.

 

Don't get me wrong, I completely understand the headache. But you can't argue a 2.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 129 Ks in 110 IP. Those are sparkling numbers and if you play in roto, those numbers come at a steal. Not quite the same, but Kershaw proved this year that over a small sample one could still be a very impactful pitcher if the Ratios were good enough. Those aren't Kershaw ratios, but they're legitimate enough to make a deep impact on your season long numbers even in 110 IP. Andrew Miller and Betances (if the Yankees indeed sign Jansen or Chapman) will still be drafted in numerous leagues despite being unlikely to get Saves or a Bulk of Wins simply because of the ratio support they give over 70-80 innings. If you get the same from Hill only in 120 Innings with upside for 180, than you're in business. 

 

Again, won't ever bank on Rich, so I think that'll dorp the price too much for me that I don't think I'll personally get him anywhere, but if he does what he did last year he's completely worth the frustrations. SP22 last year on the player rater in 110 IP. He won't go in the top 30 in many leagues. 

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If you play in a league where you set your lineup daily I can see how he could be pretty valuable.  In a weekly league though,  every time you put him in the lineup you're risking getting a goose egg for that week (as i did multiple times last year).  

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On Wednesday, November 30, 2016 at 10:39 AM, svdude said:

I read somewhere that in the last 2 years he's 2nd only to Kershaw in ERA and WHIP for SP, but is also bottom 10 SP (total, not %) when it comes to IP.  I tend to avoid players with higher risk, but he's so tempting because of the elite numbers when he does pitch.  Should he be treated like an elite RP?  Count on him for great ratios, great K/9, and hope for some 10 wins and 100-120IP?

that's not a bad way to look at him. I think you could draft him as an SP3 if your 1 and 2 are fairly safe, but it will also depend on where he lands in free agency.

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1 minute ago, cs3 said:

Isnt this the guy that got scratched 9 consecutive Friday's in a row?

 

Yup, the same guy who had a 2.12 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP and had 129 Ks over 110 IP and was the 22nd SP on the Player Rater last yaer. 

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Also the same guy who is in his late 30's and just threw his highest inning total (which was only only 110?!) since 2007 right?

 

Just wondering what % you have him repeating the ratios and also breaking 200, I mean 150 ehh 100 innings pitched?

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6 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Also the same guy who is in his late 30's and just threw his highest inning total (which was only only 110?!) since 2007 right?

 

Just wondering what % you have him repeating the ratios and also breaking 200, I mean 150 ehh 100 innings pitched?

 

All I'm saying is there's upside, to the point where if you draft him where he'll go in drafts, and he did what he did last year in a roto league, you will be happy with the results. 

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Sure hes worth more in roto, but I would still be terrified to take him as one of my top 4 SP and hes going to go off the board before that. i would value him about the same as a mid tier closer to be honest. Similar ratio and K projections, but far fewer wins than the elite closers get saves.

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2 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Sure hes worth more in roto, but I would still be terrified to take him as one of my top 4 SP and hes going to go off the board before that. i would value him about the same as a mid tier closer to be honest. Similar ratio and K projections, but far fewer wins than the elite closers get saves.

Similar K projection to a mid tier closer? C'mon man.

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12 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Similar K projection to a mid tier closer? C'mon man.

No, you misunderstood - I wasn't very clear. similar K rate projection to an elite closer, but far fewer wins than the # of saves an elite closer will record. Hence i will value him less than an elite closer (ie similar to a mid tier closer). A mid tier closer will obv have fewer K's, but will project for similar or better ratios, and 2-3 times as many saves as the # of Wins (or QS) that Hill projects for)

Edited by cs3

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1 minute ago, cs3 said:

No, you misunderstood - I wasn't very clear. similar K rate projection to an elite closer, but far fewer wins than the # of saves an elite closer will record. Hence i will value him less than an elite closer (ie similar to a mid tier closer). A mid tier closer will obv have fewer K's, but will project for similar or better ratios, and 2-3 times as many saves as the # of Wins (or QS) that Hill projects for)

That makes more sense.

Still, you're comparing apples to oranges with wins vs saves - of course they will get 2-3 times as many saves as he gets wins, because closers typically get 2-3 times as many saves as starters get wins.

Also, you're really overestimating how good the ratios of a mid-tier closer are. Hill's ratios were absolutely elite

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