BlueJaysIn2030

Toronto Blue Jays 2017 Outlook

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27 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

Well how many god's do you know that are former Cy Young winners that can throw a knuckle ball?  A god beats a Thor everytime.  Seriously though AA went for it and he had the guts to do it.  At least we knew the direction the team was going.  

 

Thor is a god, but I get what you're saying.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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I'm surprised nobody mentioned the rumored interest in Cutch and the possibility of signing Bautista to a 1 year deal.

 

The 2017 lineup could conceivably look like this:

 

Travis

Donaldson

Cutch

Bautista

Morales

Tulo

Pierce

Martin

Pillar

 

The team could end up being much more dangerous than 2016.

 

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I would rather trade for Granderson depending on who it takes for him, rather than giving up something likely much bigger to get McCutchen.

it looks like you would have a great platoon with Granderson/Upton.

Granderson 16 vs RH- .241/.347/.479/.826 (vs LH- .226/.298/.425/.723)

Upton 16 vs LH-  .275/.341/.533/.874 (vs RH- .226/.274/.360/.634)

 

then resign Bautista to the 1 year he is willing to take.

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On 12/1/2016 at 8:32 AM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

They apparently offered him 4/80 and Atkins has said numerous times he wants him back. The sentiment in the Toronto media (Bob McCowan, Damian Cox, some Jays "insiders", etc) is that he isn't gone for sure, but the odds aren't great. I'd love him back. The Jays have made a ton of money the last two seasons and should be spending it. No reason for a $130 million budget when you had some of the highest attendance records in 2015/2016, increased tickets prices by 10% (I think it was 10%). 

 

They go the moola. Spend it.

 

Aren't contracts based on US dollars?  If that is the case then Cleveland offering a 10m contract just to match the Blue Jays would need to make the offer around 13.5m to equal out for the player. Don't know if it still works that way but at one point in time Canadian teams had to overpay to get players just to sign there.

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30 minutes ago, An Old Hippie said:

Aren't contracts based on US dollars?  If that is the case then Cleveland offering a 10m contract just to match the Blue Jays would need to make the offer around 13.5m to equal out for the player. Don't know if it still works that way but at one point in time Canadian teams had to overpay to get players just to sign there.

 

Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying, I'm assuming the reported contracts are in USD unless specifically stated. 

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For the Jays to offer say EE 4/80m they need revenue of approximately 106m dollars to cover it. It isn't just a simple matter of saying 4/80m without considering the exchange rate also. We can look at 4/80m as fair but in reality, it costs the Jays more to get that 80m.

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22 hours ago, An Old Hippie said:

For the Jays to offer say EE 4/80m they need revenue of approximately 106m dollars to cover it. It isn't just a simple matter of saying 4/80m without considering the exchange rate also. We can look at 4/80m as fair but in reality, it costs the Jays more to get that 80m.

You're right but it doesn't matter when Rogers takes in billions a quarter. The Jays should have a payroll similar to the Dodgers. But they won't because it's a corporation running things.

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I hate how Rogers controls it's own media (Sportsnet and the fan).

 

Somehow, Rogers managed to convince Toronto fans that Toronto is a small market club.  Basically the Jays have all of Toronto, a city of 6 million, without having to split the fan base (unlike Chicago, NYC, LA).  They have all the rest of Canada pretty much.  Plus they have fans in Western New York due to their Bisons association and proximity.  

 

I see no reason why Rogers can't afford a payroll of at least 180 million.  

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14 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

You're right but it doesn't matter when Rogers takes in billions a quarter. The Jays should have a payroll similar to the Dodgers. But they won't because it's a corporation running things.

 

That part is true in that a corporation is more interested in the bottom line which makes the shareholders happier. It might be to early for 2016 data on revenue to be publicly available lr I could be just to tired to do a proper search but here is the MLB franchises revenue from 2015.


It really doesn't appear that Toronto has the revenue to have a payroll like the Dodgers.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

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8 hours ago, An Old Hippie said:

That part is true in that a corporation is more interested in the bottom line which makes the shareholders happier. It might be to early for 2016 data on revenue to be publicly available lr I could be just to tired to do a proper search but here is the MLB franchises revenue from 2015.


It really doesn't appear that Toronto has the revenue to have a payroll like the Dodgers.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

 

Interesting.  But I would be a lot happier if I saw some methodology and breakdown as to how those revenue numbers were calculated.

 

Keep in mind, that playoffs will greatly impact revenue and therefor it's a case of having to spend money to make money.  

 

And how can you determine how much money Rogers truly makes off the Blue Jays when they own every aspect of the team.  Who knows how many people get a cable subscription so they can get Sportsnet and watch the games on TV?  Who knows how much extra advertising revenue Rogers gets as a result of a program airing right after a baseball broadcast?

 

Difficult comparisons.

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Whatever they get I doubt it makes up the difference between them and the Dodgers who also make the playoffs.

 

It is estimates but media income is pretty easy to track with contracts that get signed. I am lazy but look up what the last media deal the Dodgers signed for both length and amount of money per year. Just going by memory, which doesn't always work as well as it once did, it seems like it was for more then 450m a year for quite a few years. Then there is also shared media income like money for broadcast rights in WS and playoff games

 

8.3 billion over 25 years and the Dodgers and funny enough unless you subscribe to Sportsnet LA you don't get Dodger games as DirectTv refused to pay the fee to Sportsnet and pass on a 5.00 a month fee to its customers.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/how-the-dodgers---8-3b-tv-deal-turned-into-an-unmitigated-disaster-203627465-mlb.html

 

Edited by Low and Away

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11 hours ago, An Old Hippie said:

That part is true in that a corporation is more interested in the bottom line which makes the shareholders happier. It might be to early for 2016 data on revenue to be publicly available lr I could be just to tired to do a proper search but here is the MLB franchises revenue from 2015.


It really doesn't appear that Toronto has the revenue to have a payroll like the Dodgers.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

Rogers makes a ton of money, they can defintiely have a payroll like the Dodgers. They made like 10 billion in profit this year.

http://netstorage-ion.rogers.com/downloads/IR/pdf/quarterly-results/Rogers-2016-Q3-Results-Release.pdf

 

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Rogers makes a ton of money, they can defintiely have a payroll like the Dodgers. They made like 10 billion in profit this year.

http://netstorage-ion.rogers.com/downloads/IR/pdf/quarterly-results/Rogers-2016-Q3-Results-Release.pdf

 

Sure they could afford to, but to what end? Unlike individuals, who want to watch their team be successful (well, some of them), corporations usually have nothing to gain from paying more for players. Unless they think increasing payroll by $50 million would increase revenue by more than that, there's no reason for Rogers to do that. They're (rightfully) more concerned with pleasing their stockholders than pleasing baseball fans

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3 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Rogers makes a ton of money, they can defintiely have a payroll like the Dodgers. They made like 10 billion in profit this year.

http://netstorage-ion.rogers.com/downloads/IR/pdf/quarterly-results/Rogers-2016-Q3-Results-Release.pdf

 

 

But is that just baseball revenue? Or is it the corporation making that much. Quite a few corporations that pwn MLB teams keep the baseball side separate from the rest. And each department is judged on its own merit for profit/loss.

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8 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Sure they could afford to, but to what end? Unlike individuals, who want to watch their team be successful (well, some of them), corporations usually have nothing to gain from paying more for players. Unless they think increasing payroll by $50 million would increase revenue by more than that, there's no reason for Rogers to do that. They're (rightfully) more concerned with pleasing their stockholders than pleasing baseball fans

I get it. I understand it. But point was just, pretty simply, the Jays could have a budget similar if not better than the Dodgers. I later said they never will because they're owned by a corp. It's really too bad, because even if they spent $250 million a year, it's a drop in the bucket to them. On top of that the entire country has gone bananas for them, and thousands of fan go to see the from the Vancouver area to Seattle when they play there. 

Canada is weird. 

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looks like the Jays are negotiating with Bautista.

 

Quote

MLB Network's Jon Morosi reports that the Blue Jays and the representatives for Jose Bautista are "engaged in active contract discussions."

Morosi tweeted earlier this month that the Jays had not made a formal proposal to Bautista since he rejected their one-year, $17.2 million qualifying offer in November, but that seems to have changed now. It's the rejected qualifying offer and the draft compensation that comes with it that has made life so difficult for Bautista on the free agent market. Toronto obviously wouldn't have to fork over a draft pick to re-sign him, though they'd also lose the opportunity to gain one.

 

if he is signed I would like to see him left in a good spot in the lineup (3/4), not shuffled around with the leadoff spot.

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58 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

looks like the Jays are negotiating with Bautista.

 

 

if he is signed I would like to see him left in a good spot in the lineup (3/4), not shuffled around with the leadoff spot.

Bats hitting leadoff was absurd

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23 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Bats hitting leadoff was absurd

I agree but at that point there wasn't anybody who had the OBP Joey had.  Travis was hurt and when he returned he wasn't much of a leadoff guy, Donaldson and EE you had to leave where they were as their avg was much higher so you leave them there.

 

I hope Travis progresses but I am slightly worried this year. I would hate to just have a 2 year window and back to mediocrity. Baseball is already a grind and to be in the AL East makes it worse. We do not spend like Boston and NYY so it is hard to keep our window open. We decimated our farm team ( I hate you Dickey).

 

I could just be overreacting but I'm a homer I am allowed too

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3 hours ago, prizl said:

I agree but at that point there wasn't anybody who had the OBP Joey had.  Travis was hurt and when he returned he wasn't much of a leadoff guy, Donaldson and EE you had to leave where they were as their avg was much higher so you leave them there.

 

I hope Travis progresses but I am slightly worried this year. I would hate to just have a 2 year window and back to mediocrity. Baseball is already a grind and to be in the AL East makes it worse. We do not spend like Boston and NYY so it is hard to keep our window open. We decimated our farm team ( I hate you Dickey).

 

I could just be overreacting but I'm a homer I am allowed too

So? Rizzo had an great OBP, if Fowler got hurt, would you want him leading off? I get wanting an OBP guy leading off, but not at the expense of tons of rbi opportunites. just my opinion.

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13 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

So? Rizzo had an great OBP, if Fowler got hurt, would you want him leading off? I get wanting an OBP guy leading off, but not at the expense of tons of rbi opportunites. just my opinion.

To be fair, the guy had a wRC+ of 115, walked at a rate of 13.%, K'd at 20.5%, had an OBP of .341, and still posted an OPS of .800 while hitting leadoff.

Who else would you have put there? Pillar? The Jays had literally no one else... They also played pretty good with him there, and he had his fiar share of RBI (22RBI in 159AB compared to: 46RBI in 264AB). If you took those RBI totals and put them over ~500AB, he'd have over 65RBI... for the year he only had 69 ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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so apparently the Jays are not negotiating with Bautista.

Quote

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reports the Blue Jays are not in active talks with Jose Bautista.

MLB Network's Jon Morosi had previously reported that the two sides were "engaged in active contract discussions." Per Griffin, the Blue Jays haven't made a formal offer to Bautista since he turned down the team's one-year, $17.2 million qualifying offer last month, though they did meet face to face at the Winter Meetings. Bautista had been hoping for a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $100 million but so far he's heard crickets on the open market. If Bautista does return to Toronto, it would likely be on a one-year deal similar to the qualifying offer he turned down. In the meantime, the Blue Jays are exploring trades with Jay Bruce, Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson among their top targets.

 

 

but there is interest in Brett Gardner.

Quote

According to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, the Blue Jays have considered a number of alternatives to re-signing Jose Bautista including trading for Brett Gardner.

Gardner is known to be available but this is the first time we've seen him linked to the Blue Jays. Teams usually aren't keen on trading important players to division titles, so Gardner heading north would probably be a long shot. If Gardner does end up in Toronto, it would be the first time the two sides have traded with each other since 2002. Garner hit .261 with seven homers, 41 RBI and 16 steals over 148 games in 2016.

 

seems unlikely. depending on cost, I like Gardner.

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23 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

so apparently the Jays are not negotiating with Bautista.

 

 

but there is interest in Brett Gardner.

 

seems unlikely. depending on cost, I like Gardner.

I agree with you. I'd prefer Gardner over JB. I think we'd see a power spike (not a crazy one) that brings him back to that 15HR range, and if you throw in even 10SB with a .340+ OBP... that's solid. He's not a great defender but not terrible either.

Annnnnd he isn't 70 years old and wanting $50,000,000 a day to be in commercials.

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I agree with you. I'd prefer Gardner over JB. I think we'd see a power spike (not a crazy one) that brings him back to that 15HR range, and if you throw in even 10SB with a .340+ OBP... that's solid. He's not a great defender but not terrible either.

Annnnnd he isn't 70 years old and wanting $50,000,000 a day to be in commercials.

I wish they would sign Trumbo at 1st and then trade for somebody on the cheap to play outfield.  Somebody who has yet to break out that has the potential.  Somebody like Avicail Garcia.  EE and JB weren't good until they came to TO either.

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I'd rather have Bautista.  Frankly I think It's a necessary gamble. I don't think Gardener gets it done.  The Jays need a resurgent Joey Bats with a .900+ OPS and healthy to have a shot at beating the Red Sox for the division.

 

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