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Coach George

Off-season Top 100 prospects

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Just now, I like baseball said:

Has anyone discounted that stats matter as well?

no; but people have said toosly players matter more than stats, as evidenced of Senzel over Rodgers

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6 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

It is completely not.  I am saying- what good MLB player did not have good MiLB stats. 

 

You say: players can have mediocre/bad miLB stats as long as they are toosly and succeed.  I say: they need to have good MiLB stats. Evidenced by the fact that all good MLB players have good mILB stats.

 

I didn't say that...someone might have...it wasn't me.

 

However, the self fulfilling prophecy is that in order to advance to the major leagues you typically have to perform at the minor league level.

 

Josh Donaldson comes to mind as an exception. He wasn't a superstar in the minor leagues.

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2 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

no; but people have said toosly players matter more than stats, as evidenced of Senzel over Rodgers

 

Brandon Wood is the anti-stats guy. He was on God Mode in the minors but never did anything meaningful in the minors.

 

Stats in the minors don't always tell the entire story. Park factors vary a ton...quality of pitching is important.

 

Really, you can get in a lot of trouble by putting too much stock into minor league stats.

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6 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Yes, he does, just not as good as Senzel :)

Then Tyler Austin is better than both, right?

Minor league stats are useful. Comparing two player's minor league stats is 100% useless.

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4 minutes ago, Coach George said:

 

I didn't say that...someone might have...it wasn't me.

 

However, the self fulfilling prophecy is that in order to advance to the major leagues you typically have to perform at the minor league level.

 

Josh Donaldson comes to mind as an exception. He wasn't a superstar in the minor leagues.

 

Not a superstar, but in A ball 470 OBP 250 around ISO was great, in triple A ball 402 OBP 250 ISO and 344 138 are pretty good stats tbh.  Better than Rodgers.  But like I said, there are some exceptions such as Bautista (but this really isnt one imo)

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5 minutes ago, Coach George said:

 

Brandon Wood is the anti-stats guy. He was on God Mode in the minors but never did anything meaningful in the minors.

 

Stats in the minors don't always tell the entire story. Park factors vary a ton...quality of pitching is important.

 

Really, you can get in a lot of trouble by putting too much stock into minor league stats.

 

 

I am not denying some stats dudes do NOT Become major leaguers.  I think I heard 33% was the common success rate.  I am saying of the ones that DO become major leaguers (good ones), then they had good stats.

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3 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Then Tyler Austin is better than both, right?

Minor league stats are useful. Comparing two player's minor league stats is 100% useless.

 

Competely agree...its not all.  I am just saying it is a lot. 

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Just now, Fbaseballgod said:

 

 

I am not denying some stats dudes do NOT Become major leaguers.  I think I heard 33% was the common success rate.  I am saying of the ones that DO become major leaguers (good ones), then they had good stats.

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course they had good stats in the minors - that's how you make it to the majors. What team is going to call up a guy who is struggling?

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1 minute ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Competely agree...its not all.  I am just saying it is a lot. 

If you completely agree that comparing two player's stats is useless, why are you using it as the basis for an argument of what prospect is better?

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17 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course they had good stats in the minors - that's how you make it to the majors. What team is going to call up a guy who is struggling?

 

Exactly.  And Rodgers has good not great stats 

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17 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

If you completely agree that comparing two player's stats is useless, why are you using it as the basis for an argument of what prospect is better?

 

Useless? Not useless, but only solely comparing is.  But senzel is in same league, same age roughly, and was a top pick himself, so it's not like he slacks in other compartments 

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6 minutes ago, Coach George said:

I'm now losing brain cells by reading this...let's move on. 

 

 

... That's one way to end an arguement 

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57 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Useless? Not useless, but only solely comparing is.  But senzel is in same league, same age roughly, and was a top pick himself, so it's not like he slacks in other compartments 

Comparing their stats IS completely useless. The ability to hit minor league pitching is important. The extent to which you dominate them isn't - who cares, this isn't MLB pitching.

Against other team's Top 20 prospects (the closest thing they faced to MLB caliber pitching), Senzel hit .229, Rodgers .292. So Senzel got his numbers against pitchers who likely will never see the field in the MLB whereas Rodgers got his against pitchers who likely have MLB futures, demonstrating an ability to hit premier stuff

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6 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Comparing their stats IS completely useless. The ability to hit minor league pitching is important. The extent to which you dominate them isn't - who cares, this isn't MLB pitching.

Against other team's Top 20 prospects (the closest thing they faced to MLB caliber pitching), Senzel hit .229, Rodgers .292. So Senzel got his numbers against pitchers who likely will never see the field in the MLB whereas Rodgers got his against pitchers who likely have MLB futures, demonstrating an ability to hit premier stuff

 

Interesting.  A question- what was the sample size and also where did you find that? 

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Interesting.  A question- what was the sample size and also where did you find that? 

MLBfarm.com is the source I used. I'm not sure how to go to a player's page from the homepage so I just googled "Brendan Rodgers MLB farm.com" and found it.

The sample isn't all that large (I think it was around 100 PA for Rodgers), but not horribly small. My point isn't to knock Senzel (who I love, by the way), my point is that not all minor league at bats are created equal. Some are against organizational guys with no MLB future and some are against future stars. For that reason, I think we should look at numbers to see whether a player has good ones or not (you're going to have a rough time in the MLB if you can't hit some minor league scrubs), but comparing numbers from player to player is pointless because we don't know what kind of pitchers those numbers were off of.

There's a reason MLB clubs still employ scouts instead of just using stats - neither tells the whole story

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Prospects are in stage of developing. They are not same player when they are drafted. The point of a system is suppose to build them up towards MLB ready. That is why scouting the stat line alone is not enough. They are not robots they don't all develop the same way. So stat comparisons of prospects are often foolish.

 

At some point they have to be good to make the majors...but in the low minors you shouldn't worry too much if a guy isn't lighting up the world if he's still really young.. It doesn't take away from his ceiling.

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2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Prospects are in stage of developing. They are not same player when they are drafted. The point of a system is suppose to build them up towards MLB ready. That is why scouting the stat line alone is not enough. They are not robots they don't all develop the same way. So stat comparisons of prospects are often foolish.

 

At some point they have to be good to make the majors...but in the low minors you shouldn't worry too much if a guy isn't lighting up the world if he's still really young.. It doesn't take away from his ceiling.

 

 

That's my point- most good mlb players did tear it up in minor leagues 

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19 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

MLBfarm.com is the source I used. I'm not sure how to go to a player's page from the homepage so I just googled "Brendan Rodgers MLB farm.com" and found it.

The sample isn't all that large (I think it was around 100 PA for Rodgers), but not horribly small. My point isn't to knock Senzel (who I love, by the way), my point is that not all minor league at bats are created equal. Some are against organizational guys with no MLB future and some are against future stars. For that reason, I think we should look at numbers to see whether a player has good ones or not (you're going to have a rough time in the MLB if you can't hit some minor league scrubs), but comparing numbers from player to player is pointless because we don't know what kind of pitchers those numbers were off of.

There's a reason MLB clubs still employ scouts instead of just using stats - neither tells the whole story

 

 

Fair enough.  Thanks for the response, I like that statistic.  I just really wanted to highlight senzel more than trash rosgers lol 

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1 minute ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

 

That's my point- most good mlb players did tear it up in minor leagues 

They tore it up at some point, but did they tear it up every step of the way? Most didn't.

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1 minute ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

 

Fair enough.  Thanks for the response, I like that statistic.  I just really wanted to highlight senzel more than trash rosgers lol 

And Senzel is totally worth hyping up!

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16 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

They tore it up at some point, but did they tear it up every step of the way? Most didn't.

 

 

Haha we shall never agree! But all I say is I disagree on this statement lol- at least the very great players 

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11 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

 

Haha we shall never agree! But all I say is I disagree on this statement lol- at least the very great players

For example, Bryce Harper slugged below 400 at AA

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Haha we shall never agree! But all I say is I disagree on this statement lol- at least the very great players 

Mookie Betts didn't stand out that much and was something like maybe the 5th rated prospect in the Red Sox system when he was called up.  A decent prospect but no one in the organization saw what he has become.  What did deGrom and Carrasco do in the minors compared to what they have done in the Bigs?  Players are different.  Some mature while still in the minors and some that weren't as highly touted suddenly seem to turn it on when they reach the mother ship.

I don't think there is a single way to look at things.  These are really young guys still learning their craft and growing into their bodies and mentally maturing (hopefully) as well. 

It helps if you have a nice resume in the minors if for nothing else it will get you promoted up faster.  But it isn't a guarantee those players will be better than others that suddenly seem to blossom big time once they are under the bright lights of the majors.

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