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jfazz23

AJ Reed 2017 Outlook

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tore it up in the minors and his hype was immense last year only to disappoint.

 

 Does anyone believe he can turn it around this year like so many other high end prospects who were less than stellar in their call up, but then vastly improved?

 

im willing to take a late risk on him...are you?

 

 

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I was so happy to have AJ Reed and Jose Berrios in my money league last year. 

 

/sigh.

 

Reed's positioning to me will be determined by how the PT is shaping out. They've already added Reddick, Beltran and McCann this offseason... you include Yulieski Gurriel, the fact that Gattis figures to see some time at DH, and names still available on the market, I could easily see a path where Reed doesn't see the PT in order to merit a pick in most redraft leagues. He won't turn it around if he doesn't have an opportunity.

 

My place of value in general I like to target is Post-Hype. I think it's the area (along with age) where you can find the most profit in general in drafts. AJ obviously fits into that class, but if the Astros are putting old men in those slots over him, then it won't matter that he's got post-hype sleeper potential... because no one's a sleeper if they don't get PT. 

 

I said in the Alex Dickerson outlook you buy skills not roles but that I believe you judge each case obviously individually. That situation I see the path. This one is a lot harder for me. For whatever Gattis, Beltran, and Reddick are, I don't see them completely falling off. 

 

So yeah, in general I'd enjoy picking up AJ Reed, but considering the moves the Astros have already made, I don't think the avenue for PT is obvious enough for me. I may look deeper and see if I can find anything glaring in Reed's profile, but either way it won't matter if he doesn't get on the field. 

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It's easy to forget about Reed, but learning from lessons past, like Rizzo you would be wise to keep an eye on him. 

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

It's easy to forget about Reed, but learning from lessons past, like Rizzo you would be wise to keep an eye on him. 

 

I'm triggered by last season. What happened to our baby boy?  I dont like that the Astros keep signing hitters too.

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18 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'm triggered by last season. What happened to our baby boy?  I dont like that the Astros keep signing hitters too.

this concerns me the most because it tells me the astros have little faith in him...

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

this concerns me the most because it tells me the astros have little faith in him...

 

I don't know about "little", more like "we have a window now with good talent, we can't risk heading into the season with penciling in Reed for 500+ AB in case he isn't good"

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40 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

this concerns me the most because it tells me the astros have little faith in him...

The Padres gave up on Rizzo after his first stint... traded him.

 

That could happen here too. 

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

I was so happy to have AJ Reed and Jose Berrios in my money league last year. 

 

/sigh.

 

Reed's positioning to me will be determined by how the PT is shaping out. They've already added Reddick, Beltran and McCann this offseason... you include Yulieski Gurriel, the fact that Gattis figures to see some time at DH, and names still available on the market, I could easily see a path where Reed doesn't see the PT in order to merit a pick in most redraft leagues. He won't turn it around if he doesn't have an opportunity.

 

My place of value in general I like to target is Post-Hype. I think it's the area (along with age) where you can find the most profit in general in drafts. AJ obviously fits into that class, but if the Astros are putting old men in those slots over him, then it won't matter that he's got post-hype sleeper potential... because no one's a sleeper if they don't get PT. 

 

I said in the Alex Dickerson outlook you buy skills not roles but that I believe you judge each case obviously individually. That situation I see the path. This one is a lot harder for me. For whatever Gattis, Beltran, and Reddick are, I don't see them completely falling off. 

 

So yeah, in general I'd enjoy picking up AJ Reed, but considering the moves the Astros have already made, I don't think the avenue for PT is obvious enough for me. I may look deeper and see if I can find anything glaring in Reed's profile, but either way it won't matter if he doesn't get on the field. 

maybe my memory is foggy Taoball, but your posts seem to have really been great. far better than I recall!

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On Monday, December 05, 2016 at 2:37 PM, taobball said:

I was so happy to have AJ Reed and Jose Berrios in my money league last year. 

 

/sigh.

 

Reed's positioning to me will be determined by how the PT is shaping out. They've already added Reddick, Beltran and McCann this offseason... you include Yulieski Gurriel, the fact that Gattis figures to see some time at DH, and names still available on the market, I could easily see a path where Reed doesn't see the PT in order to merit a pick in most redraft leagues. He won't turn it around if he doesn't have an opportunity.

 

My place of value in general I like to target is Post-Hype. I think it's the area (along with age) where you can find the most profit in general in drafts. AJ obviously fits into that class, but if the Astros are putting old men in those slots over him, then it won't matter that he's got post-hype sleeper potential... because no one's a sleeper if they don't get PT. 

 

I said in the Alex Dickerson outlook you buy skills not roles but that I believe you judge each case obviously individually. That situation I see the path. This one is a lot harder for me. For whatever Gattis, Beltran, and Reddick are, I don't see them completely falling off. 

 

So yeah, in general I'd enjoy picking up AJ Reed, but considering the moves the Astros have already made, I don't think the avenue for PT is obvious enough for me. I may look deeper and see if I can find anything glaring in Reed's profile, but either way it won't matter if he doesn't get on the field. 

I think you nailed it. reed probably won't see time in the Majors until mid-season or if there are injuries. I'd keep a close eye on him and grab him if he is hot in the minors and if the Astros have a seeming need due to injuries or production. I would not draft him in a majority of leagues. But don't forget about him. The talent is there. We are so quick to crap on a guy because he fails early in his MLB career. Don't be that quick crapper.

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Fansworth was literally gushing over him start of last year, slapping a plus hit and plus power tool on him. Oh and ranking him 1. above some kid called Bregman then:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-houston-astros/

 

I think he's a great buy low even in leagues with minors systems where you'd have to trade for him. I think his weight played a big factor in his struggles last year as he clearly dumbly piled on the pounds. He'll know he has to be in better shape now to perform, and for once I want to actually hear the typical "best shape of his life" stories coming out of ST, as it will actually make a big difference here. His talent and great hitting environment/lineup is still there, I took him as the 85th minor drafted in a startup dynasty and am loving that pick. These are the players everyone gets scared away from (Berrios too) after a bad audition and taking advantage can with you leagues, trust the scouting reports and the ability for the player to adjust.

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7 hours ago, swfcdan said:

I think his weight played a big factor in his struggles last year as he clearly dumbly piled on the pounds. He'll know he has to be in better shape now to perform, and for once I want to actually hear the typical "best shape of his life" stories coming out of ST, as it will actually make a big difference here. 

 

here you go

 

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/astros-aj-reed-noticeably-slimmer-entering-astros-camp/

 

that's from last spring though, ahaha

 

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The major thing standing in Reed's way is his ability to hit LHPs - this was even evident during his breakouts in AA.  Reed needs to learn how to even that out to be an every day player - until then, his career might just be platoon bat.

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17 hours ago, Skoodog said:

The major thing standing in Reed's way is his ability to hit LHPs - this was even evident during his breakouts in AA.  Reed needs to learn how to even that out to be an every day player - until then, his career might just be platoon bat.

I tend to agree with this. And correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Reed have a huge 2015 minor league season only to come back to earth in 2016 in the minors before his call up? Wasn't the same player.

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3 hours ago, motown magic said:

I tend to agree with this. And correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Reed have a huge 2015 minor league season only to come back to earth in 2016 in the minors before his call up? Wasn't the same player.

 

he did start slow in AAA. his may was especially bad, and there were some reports of health issues, he went on the DL at one point. quad? hamstring? something like that. leg.

 

i don't think this means he's just no good, though. coming into this year he had a total of 237 PA in AA. and that was it, he was on to AAA. a little adjustment period is pretty normal. he got rolling down there later in the year, to the point where his total season line for AAA is good enough that most people writing capsules on him this year forget about the early bad stretch entirely and write it up as "he kept right on raking in AAA but couldn't handle the majors for some reason". when what it looks like to me is he had 2 adjustment periods at 2 new levels, one of which (AAA) he successfully completed and the second of which (MLB) he didn't get enough time to. 

 

the LHP / platoon problem is a real issue for him but i wouldn't say that it's "the major thing" standing in his way right now. the major thing standing in his way right now is carrying over his success against RHP from the minors to the majors. if he can do that he'll at least get established at the level. then he can start working on hitting lefties. 

 

 

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I think IF he is going to be the stud many of you are hoping he he'll be he will need to get at bats .IF he even starts I. The bigs being in a platoon won't help him get on a roll to get more at bats . That's my opinion right or wrong . We shall see 

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3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I think IF he is going to be the stud many of you are hoping he he'll be he will need to get at bats .IF he even starts I. The bigs being in a platoon won't help him get on a roll to get more at bats . That's my opinion right or wrong . We shall see 

 

it's not ideal, but it's better than not being in the majors at all. it's possible that if he's raking against RHP the way he has in the minors they'll roll him out full time in order to develop him. certainly a lot more possible than if he isn't doing that. 

 

i'm just trying to be steady hand on the tiller here. i thought everybody was too high on him in the spring a year ago, to the point where they were in pretty serious denial and still talking like "when are the astros going to call reed up to give a spark to their offense" when he was hitting .230 in the PCL. now i think everybody's swung too far the other way. transition to the majors can be rough. especially for power hitters.

 

looking back at his old thread, there was an article in late april talking about how he was having a rough time because the pitchers in AAA were just refusing to ever throw him a fastball, and he was having to adjust to that. eventually he did, judging by his midsummer numbers down there. that's the kind of stuff that's constantly going on with guys at the point he's at

 

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Even more so with pitchers in the majors .Biv league pitchers aren't going to serve it up for him . He will see less good pitches to hit. All good hitters make adjustments and so do pitchers . I was one that was high on him going into 16 . To me he's just a memory . I have moved on 

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3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Even more so with pitchers in the majors .Biv league pitchers aren't going to serve it up for him . He will see less good pitches to hit. All good hitters make adjustments and so do pitchers . I was one that was high on him going into 16 . To me he's just a memory . I have moved on 

 

yeah, well, it wasn't like that all year. his overall AAA line wound up being pretty good, remember? during the time when they sent him back to AAA from the majors in the second half he hit .436/.500/.821 down there. small sample, 40 PA, but certainly smells like some sort of adjusting had happened.

 

to me that's all encouraging. it's an explanation for why he didn't just keep dominating uninterrupted the way he did the season before. he seemed to overcome it eventually. and it presents a parallel for what could have been going on with him in the majors, suggesting he has the ability to overcome that and get going up there too. 

 

 

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More power to you my friend. I know I don't put too much stock into what players do in the minors. Hardly ever translates to a good hitter in the majors. At least not the first or second year. Will he be a good hitter some day ? Possible. But I won't be holding or looking to get him on any of my teams. Not when there are so many more that are doing it now.  Good luck !

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10 minutes ago, motown magic said:

More power to you my friend. I know I don't put too much stock into what players do in the minors. Hardly ever translates to a good hitter in the majors. At least not the first or second year. Will he be a good hitter some day ? Possible. But I won't be holding or looking to get him on any of my teams. Not when there are so many more that are doing it now.  Good luck !

 

good luck with what? i'm not drafting him this year either. i'm just talking about what happened last year and his long-term outlook

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On ‎1‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 4:24 AM, swfcdan said:

Fansworth was literally gushing over him start of last year, slapping a plus hit and plus power tool on him. Oh and ranking him 1. above some kid called Bregman then:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-houston-astros/

 

I think he's a great buy low even in leagues with minors systems where you'd have to trade for him. I think his weight played a big factor in his struggles last year as he clearly dumbly piled on the pounds. He'll know he has to be in better shape now to perform, and for once I want to actually hear the typical "best shape of his life" stories coming out of ST, as it will actually make a big difference here. His talent and great hitting environment/lineup is still there, I took him as the 85th minor drafted in a startup dynasty and am loving that pick. These are the players everyone gets scared away from (Berrios too) after a bad audition and taking advantage can with you leagues, trust the scouting reports and the ability for the player to adjust.

 

Hasn't been mentioned here thus far, but Farnsworth over at FanGraphs had some pretty wild takes on players in his prospect write-ups.  It started costing FanGraphs industry credibility... there's a reason Farnsworth isn't there and Longenhagen is now their lead prospect guy.

 

As for Reed, I can't remember where I read this (may have been on twitter or maybe from a friend in the scouting community), but there were and maybe still are concerns about Reed's ability to handle good velocity.  The term you hear is slider bat speed.  I haven't dug into the data RE pitch types and such to see if that's the case, but it was a concern about him as a prospect.

 

As for this year... I wouldn't draft outside the deepest of leagues unless an injury occurs between now and opening day.  Houston has way too many options right now - would imagine Reed is in AAA.

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Good spring but optioned. I think he'll kill it at AAA and Gurriel will struggle so we'll see him up soon. These rookies get written off too quickly, remember Rizzo stank initially?

 

With adjustments he could be big in that park and lineup. I think hes a great buy low in dyasties, the difference in his price this year to last is huge.

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