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Yoan Moncada 2017 Outlook

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Moncada going to the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade.

does he start 2017 with Chicago? or maybe start in the minors?

last I checked Chicago has an infield of Abrea/Lawrie/Anderson/Frazier.

 

in 2016 he was good in A+ and then AA, but not as good with Boston.

Moncada played 2B in the minors, but 3B in his brief time with Boston.

 

this is razzball.com 2017 outlook, while he was still with Red Sox.

http://razzball.com/yoan-moncada-2017-fantasy-outlook/

 

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Yoan Moncada, 2017 Fantasy Outlook

October 24, 2016 | 2017 Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 119 Comments

by: Grey

 

In his first 123 major league at-bats, he hit .220.  He didn’t hit .220, he hit the snooze button and went back to sleep!  Wait, he really didn’t hit .220.  That’s not Moncada, that’s Trout.  In Mike Trout’s first 123 at-bats he hit .220.  Okay, I’m not saying Moncada is Trout and vice versa.  By the by, someone Googling Judge Reinhold and Vice Versa just joined us.  Show them some hospitality!  Mentioning Trout’s first 123 at-bats were meant to act as a cushion against the stunods that were about to drop some, “Moncada wasn’t good in his first taste of the majors this year.”  Dip a soft pretzel in some warm water and sprinkle salt on it to form the word ‘logic’ because yours is twisted.  I’ll admit to be far more wary — farawary? — of Moncada after he looked like his bat should on a milk carton after two weeks in the majors.  The farawary seeds of doubt have been planted?  Sure, but like a self-help guru would tell you, I think we need to ignore those little evil doubters whispering their negativity in your ear.  We learned nothing from Moncada’s 19 major league at-bats and learned more from his minor league games.  He is an explosive power/speed guy, hashtag beastmode, who looks like a perennial All-Star in the making.  Moncada looks about as can’t miss as Spin Doctors’ Little Miss Can’t Be Wrong even if his career looks like the Spin Doctors’ in reverse with the valley coming early.  A guy that can hit 20+ HRs and steal 30+ bases should get your under-nethers tingly.  This past year in the minors he had 16 HRs and 45 SBs as a barely only 21-year-old.  That’s really the only problem I see from him.  He’s young.  If he’s really 21 and not a Latin 21 and really 25, then he might not break out until next season.  I have no use for that in redrafts, and that’s what this is all about, but if I were to put on my keeper hat for a brief moment, yeah, Moncada’s the bomb dot gov.  My other issue is his contact tendencies in the minors.  He had a 30.9% strikeout percentage in Double-A.  In the majors, that would be a 99.9% rate and he’d hit .001 (math might be off there), but he is young so he can get better with pitch recognition.  Do I have as much confidence with Moncada as I did with Seager last year?  I don’t, but, for this year, I’m going to be optimistic and say he gets the 3B job out of spring training and give him the stats of 77/12/79/.247/27 with big upside from there.  Think as high as .300+ with another ten homers and steals.  Yeah, I’m spoonering Moan big time.

 

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Elite prospect. New member of the Chicago White Sox.

 

Clearer path to playing time? Worse lineup but better homerun park? How does this deal change Moncada's value (or dare I say: destiny!)

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I think a strong spring training lands him an opening day roster spot. I hope they move him back to 2B and he's 3B/2B eligible by the middle of April.

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I think the Red Sox just look and see free agents of Machado and Donaldson in '19 and Arenado in '20 and think they will be in the mix for them if they want so trading Moncada might not hurt as much.

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I dont think the time is that much more clear. If he was able to hit, he would have been in the Red Sox plans right away.  If it takes him a while to develop some more to be MLB ready, a clearer path doesnt help too much.

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2 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

I think the Red Sox just look and see free agents of Machado and Donaldson in '19 and Arenado in '20 and think they will be in the mix for them if they want so trading Moncada might not hurt as much.

I fully expect the Yankees to sign at least 2 out of those 3. 

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Lets see what winter looks like in Chicago, if they deal Frazier, which some are reporting they will, then that opens up 3B and maybe you could see them going rebuild mode and playing Moncada.  I think he will struggle this year and so I wouldnt be a big buyer in a re-draft, but my hunch is that he will start at 3B for south siders with a decent spring. 

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1 minute ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

I fully expect the Yankees to sign at least 2 out of those 3. 

 

I think you're likely to see 1-2 of them resigning with their current clubs before they ever reach free agency. Free agency lists two years out almost never hold up.

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He should start out in the minors.  He still can't hit a major league breaking ball and did terrible when called up last September.  Farrell benched him after a few games and didn't let him play the rest of the season. 

Worst thing for the White Sox is to bring him up to fail especially since they are in total rebuild mode.  Give the guy a chance to learn his craft and he will be golden for them.  Rush him for no reason and it could mess with his mind.

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I think it's probably even money or better that he starts in Chicago. Probably depends on his spring. I also have to think that Abreu being there makes the transition easier for him.

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I would think he would start the season in the minors. if the White Sox are rebuilding there is no reason to rush him by starting in Chicago and then having to send him down if he isn't hitting. it would be better for him to be great in the minors and then get called up during the season. I would go that way regardless of who else they have as that is likely better for the future.

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14 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

  Give the guy a chance to learn his craft and he will be golden for them.  Rush him for no reason and it could mess with his mind.

 

Sounds like something the Whitesox would do. Sink or swim.

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Yeah, they will almost certainly start him out in the Minors.  This team will not be a good team next year so why risk rushed/stunted development on a future stud?

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22 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Up after Super 2 in July?

 

He's already accrued a couple weeks of service time, so if they want to ensure that he's not a super 2, they'll need to wait a couple of weeks after the estimated Super 2 cutoff(early June-ish). So July would make sense for that.

 

What is likely more important to the White Sox is making sure they don't lose the extra year of eligibility. It's even more important since he's coming up so young and will likely still be in the middle of his prime for the year in question. And since he already has a few weeks of service time, the White Sox would need to wait a couple of weeks after the cutoff for that in April. 

 

I'd be shocked to see him break camp with the team or even be up in the first couple weeks. The only way that makes sense is if the White Sox think they can contend in 2017 *and* that Moncada can help them, which is likely not the case since they just decided to trade their best player. 

 

So he's either up around mid-to-late May if they don't care about Super 2 or early-to-mid July if they do. Of course, that's without regard to his development. All of this operates under the assumption that he is major-league ready.

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To Rabbit's point, here are the year of control rules:

 

Quote

In an average year there are 183 service days in a major-league season, 162 games and 21 off days. If you accrue 172 days in any season, it is considered a full year. Six full years gets you to free agency.

 

So, would add the time from his Sept 1 call-up to that.

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Keep in mind that they added four days to the start of the season and, to my knowledge, not to the service time threshold, meaning they'll have to keep him down four days longer than they would've (well, actually, they could call him up at the exact same date, it's just that with the season starting four days earlier a larger chunk will pass before that fast)

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Just curious, with the Super 2 concerns re Kris Bryant (and others) and the talk of a potential lawsuit, did any part of the new CBA address the super 2 process? 

 

I also agree that the White Sox will/should keep him down regardless of what they do as far as further trades in the off-season. And if he's not lighting the world and fire AND they are terrible, you might not see him till 2018. 

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11 minutes ago, lipitorkid said:

Just curious, with the Super 2 concerns re Kris Bryant (and others) and the talk of a potential lawsuit, did any part of the new CBA address the super 2 process? 

 

I also agree that the White Sox will/should keep him down regardless of what they do as far as further trades in the off-season. And if he's not lighting the world and fire AND they are terrible, you might not see him till 2018. 

I think you're confusing Super 2 with service years to reach FA. Kris Bryant had nothing to do with Super 2.

 

But in answer to the question, I haven't heard anything about changes to that system, and I'd imagine it would be one of the headlining changes if they did change it

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On 12/6/2016 at 3:26 PM, parrothead said:

Lets see what winter looks like in Chicago, if they deal Frazier, which some are reporting they will, then that opens up 3B and maybe you could see them going rebuild mode and playing Moncada.  I think he will struggle this year and so I wouldnt be a big buyer in a re-draft, but my hunch is that he will start at 3B for south siders with a decent spring. 

 

This article quotes Hahn saying that he wouljd begin the year in Charlotte. He also said on MLBN that they want him to continue playing second base. the article verifies that as well. 

 

They shouldn't be in a massive hurry to rush him. This team could get young and exciting really quickly though. Most of the guys acquired already have MLB service time. They're all close to contributing (1-2 years).

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On 12/6/2016 at 6:30 PM, Rabbit Maranville said:

 

He's already accrued a couple weeks of service time, so if they want to ensure that he's not a super 2, they'll need to wait a couple of weeks after the estimated Super 2 cutoff(early June-ish). So July would make sense for that.

 

What is likely more important to the White Sox is making sure they don't lose the extra year of eligibility. It's even more important since he's coming up so young and will likely still be in the middle of his prime for the year in question. And since he already has a few weeks of service time, the White Sox would need to wait a couple of weeks after the cutoff for that in April. 

 

I'd be shocked to see him break camp with the team or even be up in the first couple weeks. The only way that makes sense is if the White Sox think they can contend in 2017 *and* that Moncada can help them, which is likely not the case since they just decided to trade their best player. 

 

So he's either up around mid-to-late May if they don't care about Super 2 or early-to-mid July if they do. Of course, that's without regard to his development. All of this operates under the assumption that he is major-league ready.

 

Yeah The White Sox are in all out rebuild mode.  If Moncada breaks camp its because of injury and an outstanding performance by him.  Otherwise there's no reason not to let him season up and avoid super 2. 

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2 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah The White Sox are in all out rebuild mode.  If Moncada breaks camp its because of injury and an outstanding performance by him.  Otherwise there's no reason not to let him season up and avoid super 2. 

You think they'll keep him in the minors until July? Because that's what it'd take to avoid Super 2. I think that's unlikely.

I'd guess they call him up around mid-May, once they secure the extra year of control

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If he's hitting .350 at Triple-A, sure call him up in May. 

But he hasn't played at that level and based on his lack of contact in his September call-up, could use the time in the minors. 

And they're not contending, why try to rush him?

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1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

You think they'll keep him in the minors until July? Because that's what it'd take to avoid Super 2. I think that's unlikely.

I'd guess they call him up around mid-May, once they secure the extra year of control

I doubt if he will be "ready" even by July.  He looked absolutely lousy trying to hit breaking pitches.  Like he is doing a comedy routine on how bad a hitter can look lunging wildly at breaking balls outside.  He did not have a clue on what to do with major league level breaking stuff.  Nada.  He was horrific with his cup of coffee last September and was quickly sat down on the bench for the rest of the season.

Let him "fail" in the minors while mastering that aspect of his game.  Letting a major prospect fail in the minors is the best way to learn your game.  Not with a stadium full of fans booing and the media probing and the TV announcers commentating.  He is on a rebuilding team where there is zero reason to bring him up until he is actually ready to succeed and not have his head messed with like last September. 

In other words, you groom your top prospects for success and not failure.  Failure is suppose to be learned in the minors where it is taught as a step in a prospect's progress and something to be worked on rather than a failure everyone stares at and writes columns about.

He had had only a couple of months of AA ball under his belt when Boston called him up.  They weren't going to originally but being in a close as nails division race when they caught lightning in a bottle with how Benintendi performed right out of the gate they said they thought to themselves why not see if lightning can strike twice.  It didn't and they admitted it was a mistake on their part to have brought him up so soon.  The guy still needs some serious minor league time yet.  He is the almost stereotype raw Cuban talent that needs to learn the more sophisticated American game better before he arrives in the Bigs unlike a Benintendi who was seeing good quality breaking stuff even back in college ball.

And honestly I think what the big club saw in September probably pushed Moncada away from the "untouchable" to "if we get blown away by an offer we might do it" mode with him.  There were some hints from beat reporters after the trade that last September caused Boston to take a second look at Moncada and though they still think he will be a star he might not be the next coming of Mookie Betts after all and they became more willing to listen to offers. 

If he hadn't been called up in September where he showed how raw he still is, this deal might not have gone through.  So the White Sox would be very wise to nurture this guy and let him grow into the elite player he has the raw tools to become and show the patience needed to obtain same.  Worst thing would be to rush him up on a rebuilding team for no reason whatsoever.

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