brockpapersizer

Michael Conforto 2017 Outlook

500 posts in this topic

Well he started out as one of the best hitting OFers in the league to start the season, then had some wrist problems and went to crap. It didn't help he was jerked out of the lineup a lot.

 

Still think he has a bright future.  Problem is, until the Mets make a trade, he doesn't even have a starting OF spot right now. 

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On 12/14/2016 at 3:20 PM, brockpapersizer said:

Well he started out as one of the best hitting OFers in the league to start the season, then had some wrist problems and went to crap. It didn't help he was jerked out of the lineup a lot.

 

Still think he has a bright future.  Problem is, until the Mets make a trade, he doesn't even have a starting OF spot right now. 

 

Unless the mets install the 4 OF shift. 

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1 hour ago, tucker26 said:

 

Unless the mets install the 4 OF shift. 

 

If that were to happen, it would be because Conforto got traded and was playing against them.

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7 hours ago, tucker26 said:

 

Unless the mets install the 4 OF shift. 

Wow. I mean the player thread, the OP, the truth... it's just a perfect combo for ****post of the year, bravo!

 

I truly, actually, laughed out loud. :lol:

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Conforto was amazing in April, go back and look at the 2016 thread, the production and peripherals were fantastic.

 

I really wonder just how much that wrist injury derailed him. Wrist injuries dealing with ligaments/tendons/etc are devastating to a hitter. 

 

I'd like to see him get some time a first base in the spring. I can see him turning into a Freddie Freeman type if he sticks there and develops. 

Edited by StevieStats
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13 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Conforto was amazing in April, go back and look at the 2016 thread, the production and peripherals were fantastic.

 

I really wonder just how much that wrist injury derailed him. Wrist injuries dealing with ligaments/tendons/etc are devastating to a hitter. 

 

I'd like to see him get some time a first base in the spring. I can see him turning into a Freddie Freeman type if he sticks there and develops. 

I'm still optimistic when it comes to Michael Conforto but he's got a career .238 batting average in 542 plate appearances.

Against righties it's .255,  but lefties it's  .129,  so he's got work to do before the Freeman comparisons can start.

 

He only had 197 PA's at AA and 144 PA's at  AAA.  Probably needed some more time in the minors but he show'd a glimpse of his capabilities in the 2015 playoffs and expectations were raised earlier than expected.  I'm hoping he gets off to a good start this year but he probably will be platooned until he shows better against lefties.

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Talented but slots at best as the 4th OF and on the depth chart he is the back up LF behind Cespedes. At worst he is the 5th OF with Lagares ahead of him as a better defensive replacement.

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6c2NsTN.jpg

 

Anyone remember this? This graphic did some SERIOUS damage in dynasty leagues last year...one of my league mates traded Kris Bryant for a package of Conforto, Puig, and prospects...

Conforto is going to be a platoon bat until he learns to hit lefties. He's like a more extreme version of Josh Reddick, but will be more expensive. So I'm not exactly a fan.

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Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

6c2NsTN.jpg

 

Anyone remember this? This graphic did some SERIOUS damage in dynasty leagues last yean.

 

I do. I was the guy who already had him though (in many leagues). Nobody was blowing me away with offers though. 

 

#NeverForget

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3 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Conforto is going to be a platoon bat until he learns to hit lefties. He's like a more extreme version of Josh Reddick, but will be more expensive. So I'm not exactly a fan.

 

Looking over Conforto's stats and splits from last year and I thought they were very Matt Joyce-esque

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On Friday, May 06, 2016 at 1:05 PM, StevieStats said:

LOL going to need to pump the brakes with that graphic.

The amount of guys that started their career hitting 9-10 HR with a 268-285 average in 77 games is a looooong looooong list, it's really not that special.

I mean just for instance, in only 65 games last year Travis Shaw hit 270, 13 HR, 31 R, 36 RBI...

Just for ***** and giggles I checked out my response to that graphic last year remembering how outlandish it was. 

 

It's really not a special stat at all. 

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46 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

LOL @ these matt joyce and josh reddict comps. Come on now...

Too optimistic or too pessimistic? lol serious question.

 

The reddick comp makes sense because both of them struggle against lefties. Reddick, however, is at least minimally competent. Conforto can't hit lefties whatsoever right now.

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13 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Too optimistic or too pessimistic? lol serious question.

 

The reddick comp makes sense because both of them struggle against lefties. Reddick, however, is at least minimally competent. Conforto can't hit lefties whatsoever right now.

 

Too pessimistic. Assuming his wrist is healthy, I project him as a .290-.370-.460 hitter in 2017. I think his numbers could peak around .315-.410-.540 

 

Yeah, he's that good. Not many hitters have that overgrown comfort at the plate with that kind of eye and bat to ball skills with power. Kyle Schwarber is another. Kris Bryant was one when he came in. A less patient version is Lorenzo Cain.

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On 12/17/2016 at 2:46 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

6c2NsTN.jpg

 

Anyone remember this? This graphic did some SERIOUS damage in dynasty leagues last year...one of my league mates traded Kris Bryant for a package of Conforto, Puig, and prospects...

Conforto is going to be a platoon bat until he learns to hit lefties. He's like a more extreme version of Josh Reddick, but will be more expensive. So I'm not exactly a fan.

 

Conforto's was split between his age 22 and 23 seasons.  Harper did all of his at 19 and Trout's was split between age 19 and 20 seasons.

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1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Too pessimistic. Assuming his wrist is healthy, I project him as a .290-.370-.460 hitter in 2017. I think his numbers could peak around .315-.410-.540 

 

Yeah, he's that good. Not many hitters have that overgrown comfort at the plate with that kind of eye and bat to ball skills with power. Kyle Schwarber is another. Kris Bryant was one when he came in. A less patient version is Lorenzo Cain.

So should I draft him in the first round or hope he falls to the second?

C'mon man. Everybody and their brother knows that's nowhere close to the most likely outcome. You've fallen victim to the hype train

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There is merit to Travis' position. We all know wrist injuries can paint an unrealistic picture. But I don't think anyone said draft him high, just that his skill set could equal those projections and were on pace pre-injury. Generally I disregard injury laden stats and focus when healthy. However I don't disregard them completely. Either way, he could be a low risk gem given the projected draft/auction day cost. Or he could be Travis....Snider. And the strawmans implying he's a 1st, 2nd rounder are more outrageous than the projections Burton laid out. We are better than that. 

Edited by tucker26

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5 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

There is merit to Travis' position. We all know wrist injuries can paint an unrealistic picture. But I don't think anyone said draft him high, just that his skill set could equal those projections and were on pace pre-injury. Generally I disregard injury laden stats and focus when healthy. However I don't disregard them completely. Either way, he could be a low risk gem given the projected draft/auction day cost. Or he could be Travis....Snider. And the strawmans implying he's a 1st, 2nd rounder are more outrageous than the projections Burton laid out. We are better than that. 

I don't think you understand the difference between a strawman and reductio ad absurdum. This was clearly the latter.

If projecting Conforto for .290/.370/.460 is a fair projection, then he should be a first or second round pick.

I merely followed Travis assertion to its logical end... absurdity

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17 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I don't think you understand the difference between a strawman and reductio ad absurdum. This was clearly the latter.

If projecting Conforto for .290/.370/.460 is a fair projection, then he should be a first or second round pick.

I merely followed Travis assertion to its logical end... absurdity

To clarify - I wasn't trying to insult you by saying "I don't think you understand..."

I just don't think you're understanding in this specific instance.

Hope that's what I got across

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I don't think any of you understand.

 

In college they had to use a four outfielder shift against him.

 

and you  can't teach that 

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1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

I don't think you understand the difference between a strawman and reductio ad absurdum. This was clearly the latter.

If projecting Conforto for .290/.370/.460 is a fair projection, then he should be a first or second round pick.

I merely followed Travis assertion to its logical end... absurdity

How is 290/370/460 (830 OPS) a first or second round pick? 

 

Among qualified hitters last year he would rank 42nd/23rd/65th  (46th OPS)... How can you say that's projecting him to be a first or second rounder? 

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

So should I draft him in the first round or hope he falls to the second?

C'mon man. Everybody and their brother knows that's nowhere close to the most likely outcome. You've fallen victim to the hype train

 

You won't have to spend high to get this this year.

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