wily mo

Tommy Joseph 2017 Outlook

49 posts in this topic

I don't think this link shows the info you mean it to. Maybe the settings you put in are erased when I click on the link?

 

i have the option to keep him at $10 this year and probably won't. I do kinda like him though. 

 

So so what did that leaderboard show that you wanted to communicate to us?

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22 minutes ago, countseth said:

I don't think this link shows the info you mean it to. Maybe the settings you put in are erased when I click on the link?

 

i have the option to keep him at $10 this year and probably won't. I do kinda like him though. 

 

So so what did that leaderboard show that you wanted to communicate to us?

 

no, just keep staring at it! haha. hmm. dunno. still works for me. maybe you have to be logged into fangraphs? 

 

anyway, executive summary: it's just an OPS sort of all hitters with 150+ PA at 1B/DH from july 1st through the end of last season

 

the top 20 is:

 

1. votto

2. freeman

3. big ol mig dog cabrera

4. hanley

5. ortiz (R.I.P. rest in papi)

6. supernatural carlos santana

7. nelson cruz

8. tommy joseph!!!

9. pedro alvarez

10. jose abreu

11. anthony rizzo

12. EE

13. cron?

14. goldschmidt

15. chris carter

16. adrian gonzalez

17. napoli

18. kennys vargas

19. poo holes

20. brad miller

 

 

the implication being - no one seems to care too super much about joseph. like, it feels like people are getting ready to draft him as a 23rd round backup corner bat alongside dudes like justin bour or mitch moreland or whoever. but i think he might end up being a lot better than that. he has: (1) easy big power (2) nice short swing (3) pretty good K rate - pretty good combination. he's a RHH without much of a platoon problem. his OBP came out low but in the second half he brought his walk rate and OBP way up, early on it was all terrible, but rookie hitter adjustment periods are totally normal. 

 

him and ryon healy are the best two of a group of guys i picked out of the high minors early last year and i really like both of them for next year at the prices they're likely to go for

 

 

 

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Too bad Joseph couldn't stick at C.  He would have been a STUD as a fantasy catcher.

 

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here's last year's thread on him, which has a lot of discussion about his backstory, minor league numbers, etc

 

i think a lot of people assume he's a platoon guy, but the platoon last year was happening because of howard, not because of joseph. howard can't hit lefties; joseph can hit righties just fine. not *quite* as well as he hits lefties, probably. but if you redo that fangraphs OPS sort i posted above, and filter it for only vs RHP (and drop the PA limit to 140 so he still shows up), he actually moves *up* the list, to 6th. .306/.376/.565 vs RHP in the second half, and most of his PA were against them, somehow, in spite of the platoon. guess the phils didn't face many lefties after july. anyway, he can hit them

 

( here it is, in case it actually comes through for at least some people: 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=34,41,2&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2016-07-01&endDate=2016-11-01&filter=PA|gt|140&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=10,1&pg=0 )

 

 

 

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I agree the R/L splits probably get too much bad press. He did post a poor K/BB ratio though against righties, especially compared to the lefties, so that at least is a point of inquiry (not a point of concern) for me, and something I'll look for in his numbers.

 

In terms of an actual evaluation stand point, this isn't someone I've thought of much but there's definitely some interesting data here, and someone I'll have to look into before long. But where are you thinking Joseph finishes among some of these CI s that I expect to go decently late:

 

Cron, Thames, Moreland, Shaw, Duda, Bird, Zimmerman, Healy, Gurriel, Suarez, Castellanos to name a few. 

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46 minutes ago, taobball said:

I agree the R/L splits probably get too much bad press. He did post a poor K/BB ratio though against righties, especially compared to the lefties, so that at least is a point of inquiry (not a point of concern) for me, and something I'll look for in his numbers.

 

that's the thing about the first-half/second-half split, though. he appeared to figure out righties after a little while. before july 1st he struck out 23% of the time against righties and didn't walk. i don't mean "didn't walk" like his walk rate was really bad, i mean he literally didn't walk one single time. after july 1st, his K rate dropped slightly to around 20%, but the real improvement was that his walk rate was about 8%, which is, not amazing, but fine. and he also started hitting them. BA went from under .200 to over .300. so. he learned. i think.

 

Quote

But where are you thinking Joseph finishes among some of these CI s that I expect to go decently late:

 

Cron, Thames, Moreland, Shaw, Duda, Bird, Zimmerman, Healy, Gurriel, Suarez, Castellanos to name a few. 

 

my pets out of that group are healy, joseph and thames, probably in that order but i like all three a lot

 

i loved suarez early last year but he kind of spent most of the year being a pain in the butt, and the shine is off even more now that he's not SS-eligible any more. in the second half he brought his OBP way up but seemed to sacrifice most of his power to do it. the one thing about suarez is that i figure over the next year or so as the reds bring senzel up and phillips moves on i think suarez may well end up as a 2B, and being an MI again would make him a lot more appealing again

 

i haven't really owned or studied moreland, castellanos, or cron. cron seemed to have a good run in the second half the same way joseph did, although he's been in the league longer, so i'm sniffing around him a little now. castellanos had a lot of prospect cred but has certainly taken his time paying it off. moreland is certainly going to a good park and lineup situation but i don't really know what to make of him as a player honestly.

 

gurriel is hard to figure too. i like him less than thames in the "total wildcards from foreign leagues" category just because he's older and seems to have less power. but his really low K% is pretty interesting, and i've always liked the idea of him.

 

duda, bird and zimmerman are all in the "health, ugh" situation. for them, bird, duda, zimmerman strikes me as the pretty clear order. you can't *assume* bird will come back completely healthy (and if you want an even less fashionable CI sleeper, i like tyler austin more than most people seem to) but at least he's young. whereas you feel like zimmerman is kind of beginning to radiate the stench of death

 

 

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

that's the thing about the first-half/second-half split, though. he appeared to figure out righties after a little while. before july 1st he struck out 23% of the time against righties and didn't walk. i don't mean "didn't walk" like his walk rate was really bad, i mean he literally didn't walk one single time. after july 1st, his K rate dropped slightly to around 20%, but the real improvement was that his walk rate was about 8%, which is, not amazing, but fine. and he also started hitting them. BA went from under .200 to over .300. so. he learned. i think.

 

 

my pets out of that group are healy, joseph and thames, probably in that order but i like all three a lot

 

i loved suarez early last year but he kind of spent most of the year being a pain in the butt, and the shine is off even more now that he's not SS-eligible any more. in the second half he brought his OBP way up but seemed to sacrifice most of his power to do it. the one thing about suarez is that i figure over the next year or so as the reds bring senzel up and phillips moves on i think suarez may well end up as a 2B, and being an MI again would make him a lot more appealing again

 

i haven't really owned or studied moreland, castellanos, or cron. cron seemed to have a good run in the second half the same way joseph did, although he's been in the league longer, so i'm sniffing around him a little now. castellanos had a lot of prospect cred but has certainly taken his time paying it off. moreland is certainly going to a good park and lineup situation but i don't really know what to make of him as a player honestly.

 

gurriel is hard to figure too. i like him less than thames in the "total wildcards from foreign leagues" category just because he's older and seems to have less power. but his really low K% is pretty interesting, and i've always liked the idea of him.

 

duda, bird and zimmerman are all in the "health, ugh" situation. for them, bird, duda, zimmerman strikes me as the pretty clear order. you can't *assume* bird will come back completely healthy (and if you want an even less fashionable CI sleeper, i like tyler austin more than most people seem to) but at least he's young. whereas you feel like zimmerman is kind of beginning to radiate the stench of death

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, yeah I'm interested in looking into Joseph more. I find it interesting that I think Shaw didn't get mentioned at all and I think he's the only one which I thikn is kinda indicative of how the market sees him right now... I probably have Shaw right by Joseph right now, with Joseph probably being the one with more upside, but I have Healy the highest too, and I'm very high on Cron. I'm also a big fan of Bird. Healy and Cron are probably my only clearish top 2 and even that's not that clear. 

 

This is a bit of a tangent but do you think that Suarez would get 2B tho? I feel like sliding Peraza in there is incredibly natural. I know he could definitely fit in the OF given that that team will have a lot of turnover soon, but I've always felt he should be there to maximize value. 

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Thing is Shaw can't hit lefties.  He had a full time gig and lost it in Boston because he suddenly couldn't hit lefties at all it seemed.  He looked horrible against them as in totally lost and just flailing away at their pitches.  He "looked" better against them earlier in the season but just seemed to lose all hope against them as the season wore on.  Maybe Milwaukee may consider giving him a full time look-see but he seemed to get worse against them instead of better so was just tracking the wrong way.

I'm all in on Healy and don't even think he will be a bench player or corner infielder but can be your number one at 3B if you miss out on all the big name guys. 

I like Joseph right after him.  Then Bird.

Cron is like watching Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.  Every year you think he is going to break out and at the last minute falls back down again.  He had one really great streaky stretch last year then went off the radar again.  I can't even remember the number of times I've picked up and dropped him in leagues over the years.  He always seems to be on the FA pool.

Moreland is interesting being in Boston now with the AL East parks factoring in more.  Right now he seems a poor man's Napoli and is streaky like him but still someone to monitor though I have no desire to start out owning him.

You want a really cheap bench bat?  Like really cheap?  Maybe Solarte especially since SD is trying to trade him.  He is 3B/2B eligible this year in Yahoo.

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Okay, yeah I'm interested in looking into Joseph more. I find it interesting that I think Shaw didn't get mentioned at all and I think he's the only one which I thikn is kinda indicative of how the market sees him right now... I probably have Shaw right by Joseph right now, with Joseph probably being the one with more upside, but I have Healy the highest too, and I'm very high on Cron. I'm also a big fan of Bird. Healy and Cron are probably my only clearish top 2 and even that's not that clear. 

 

oh yeah i forgot shaw! but yeah, like BBT says, he looks like he's going to wind up strict platooned, especially since the brewers will probably want to find time for hernan perez. so that's irritating. also i really don't know what to make of him, kind of coming out of nowhere and then being so good for such a long time that it starts to stop seeming like a fluke, and then dropping off the map again. 

 

shaw and moreland will probably both be platoon guys, which annoys me

 

so my overall ranking of all of those guys, or at least tier grouping, probably goes like this:

 

1) healy, joseph, thames - i think all three have a good shot to be shallow-league starters

2) cron, bird, castellanos - upside but also more downside

3) gurriel, moreland, shaw, duda - could be ok but also have obvious playing time threats (platoon, crowded team, health)

4) suarez - way less exciting as a CI

5) zimmerman - there's probably even a bunch of other dudes i like better than him at this point

 

 

Quote

This is a bit of a tangent but do you think that Suarez would get 2B tho? I feel like sliding Peraza in there is incredibly natural. I know he could definitely fit in the OF given that that team will have a lot of turnover soon, but I've always felt he should be there to maximize value. 

 

oh i just figure at some point they move both cozart and BP, peraza goes to SS and suarez to 2B, either suarez or what's his name they got from the mets for bruce

 

1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

You want a really cheap bench bat?  Like really cheap?  Maybe Solarte especially since SD is trying to trade him.  He is 3B/2B eligible this year in Yahoo.

 

yeah i like solarte but since he's 2B eligible i think of him in the MI context. like if suarez got 2B him and solarte would probably be pretty similar

 

 

Edited by wily mo

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Yeah I just don't know what to make of the R/L Splits.

 

Here's a R side K/BB by Month:

 

May: 0%/34.6%

June: 0%/21.6%

July: 14%/17.5%

August: 0%/32.4%

Sept: 7.1%/17.9% 

 

It's reminding me of Wil Myers' June (on both side). Just one god month, and trying to figure out what to make of that. Obviously if September is close to the truth too, that's a pretty good sigh. But what in the hell happened in August again? 

 

Here's a few other June Related Stats compared to the Second Highest Month:

 

BA: 74 Points Higher

OBP: 117 Points Higher

SLG: 167 Points Higher

OPS: 1.123 v. .799

 

Really hard for me to determined what to make of that. Sounds like I'm going to be way higher on Bird then anyone else. Otherwise I thikn we have him in roughly the same spot, but his BA is a question mark to me. His tendencies in batted ball make me think this is more of a 33-36 HR guy then a 24-28 type guy... so the upside is pretty obvious, because that kind of power means that just a serviceable average will put him in a pretty solid class. I just don't know what to make of his skills against Righties yet, so he'll probably have a pretty low BA when I finally finalize my first run at 2017 Projections.

 

On 12/23/2016 at 9:59 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Thing is Shaw can't hit lefties.  He had a full time gig and lost it in Boston because he suddenly couldn't hit lefties at all it seemed.  He looked horrible against them as in totally lost and just flailing away at their pitches.  He "looked" better against them earlier in the season but just seemed to lose all hope against them as the season wore on.  Maybe Milwaukee may consider giving him a full time look-see but he seemed to get worse against them instead of better so was just tracking the wrong way.

 

I don't know if this is the right thread for it-- well really I know it isn't-- but do you think Hernan Perez could play a pretty natural platoon partner? 

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5 hours ago, taobball said:

Yeah I just don't know what to make of the R/L Splits.

 

Here's a R side K/BB by Month:

 

May: 0%/34.6%

June: 0%/21.6%

July: 14%/17.5%

August: 0%/32.4%

Sept: 7.1%/17.9% 

 

It's reminding me of Wil Myers' June (on both side). Just one god month, and trying to figure out what to make of that. Obviously if September is close to the truth too, that's a pretty good sigh. But what in the hell happened in August again? 

 

yeah that's a good question. the august was rough. still i feel like the overall progression was encouraging, with two out of his last three months being strong. i figure august was just some backsliding. have to remember he was splitting time with howard so the monthly samples are all on the small side even for monthly samples

 

 

Edited by wily mo

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Just now, wily mo said:

 

yeah that's a good question. the august was rough. still i feel like the overall progression was encouraging, with two out of his last three months being strong. i figure august was just some backsliding. have to remember he was splitting time with howard so the monthly samples are all on the small side

 

 

 

Yeah, for sure. The power's enticing enough though for how late he's going. I feel like there's quite a few interesting corner guys. I'm working on my projections for my first full rankings set rn, so that'll be very interesting to finish up. 

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42 minutes ago, jwblue said:

Definitely buying at the right price but certainly not reaching for him.

 

Which makes the obvious question what is the right price? 

 

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Which makes the obvious question what is the right price? 

 

 

ADP

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Just now, jwblue said:

 

ADP

 

What? I'm asking where you would draft him sir. You're saying "the right price" but that doesn't tell me anything about how you value him. I would draft Mookie Betts at the right price but certainly not reaching for him, i.e. first overall. I'm saying use something that's not a relative... you said you wouldn't reach but you'd draft him at the right price, do you have any inclination of what you'd consider a reach and what you'd consider the right price. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

What? I'm asking where you would draft him sir. You're saying "the right price" but that doesn't tell me anything about how you value him. I would draft Mookie Betts at the right price but certainly not reaching for him, i.e. first overall. I'm saying use something that's not a relative... you said you wouldn't reach but you'd draft him at the right price, do you have any inclination of what you'd consider a reach and what you'd consider the right price. 

 

I am in a draft league so right price for me is Average Draft Position.

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Just now, jwblue said:

 

I am in a draft league so right price for me is Average Draft Position.

 

/sigh.

 

And what Average Draft Position for you would be the right price? Do you really not understand what I'm asking? I'm like about to start posting facepalm memes. Are you saying you'd take him at whatever his ADP is? Regardless of where that ADP ultimate ends up? 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

/sigh.

 

And what Average Draft Position for you would be the right price? Do you really not understand what I'm asking? I'm like about to start posting facepalm memes. Are you saying you'd take him at whatever his ADP is? Regardless of where that ADP ultimate ends up? 

 

Yup.  If I like a player I will draft him higher than his ADP.  I won't for Joseph.

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Just now, jwblue said:

 

Yup.  If I like a player I will draft him higher than his ADP.  I won't for Joseph.

 

That's really strange to me that you base a decision 100% on the market, but fair enough I suppose, I guess that's where the confusion lies. 

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

He's a placeholder (albeit a decent one) until Rhys Hoskins is ready-

 

see, this is the prevailing perception of the situation, which i argue may well be wrong. i think there's a substantial chance joseph is better than hoskins, or at least just as good or whatever

 

people base a lot of these kind of judgments on prospect status. coming into last year joseph had none, since he'd been out of commission with concussions for so long the entire industry had written him off. but he *used* to be considered a good enough prospect to be the centerpiece of a deal for hunter pence, and his performance last year proved that he still has that kind of talent when healthy

 

hoskins hit a catchy-looking 38 HR last year, but that was in AA in a big hitters' park. his K rate is nice and low for a power hitter so i do like him. but joseph hit 21 playing about half the time in the major leagues. which is about the same pace, but in a neutral park at the highest level

 

yet people tend to assume he has little to no long-term value because he hasn't been on any lists in years. but over the course of a season, things can change a lot. and in cases like this there's no chance for the prospect-industrial complex to reconsider him now because he's graduated

 

 

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22 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

see, this is the prevailing perception of the situation, which i argue may well be wrong. i think there's a substantial chance joseph is better than hoskins, or at least just as good or whatever

 

people base a lot of these kind of judgments on prospect status. coming into last year joseph had none, since he'd been out of commission with concussions for so long the entire industry had written him off. but he *used* to be considered a good enough prospect to be the centerpiece of a deal for hunter pence, and his performance last year proved that he still has that kind of talent when healthy

 

hoskins hit a catchy-looking 38 HR last year, but that was in AA in a big hitters' park. his K rate is nice and low for a power hitter so i do like him. but joseph hit 21 playing about half the time in the major leagues. which is about the same pace, but in a neutral park at the highest level

 

yet people tend to assume he has little to no long-term value because he hasn't been on any lists in years. but over the course of a season, things can change a lot. and in cases like this there's no chance for the prospect-industrial complex to reconsider him now because he's graduated

 

 

 

Agree, I think Joseph has a chance to run away with the job before Rhys Hoskins is ready.

 

Will he? Who knows, but I'd guess that they give him through July (4 months) to see if he is the future at first base. If he face palms, which would probably be due to his inability to take a walk, then they'd probably call up Rhys Hoskins at that point and move into a bit more of a platoon initially while they hope one of them can seize a starting role. And this is of course assuming Rhys Hoskins succeeds at AAA, which is far from a given.

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