wily mo

Tommy Joseph 2017 Outlook

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Michael Saunders signing seems good for him as I don't think Saunders will take ABs from him at 1B considering he's never played the position. Moss would have been a natural platoon partner, but it appears that ship has sailed and they will roll with Joseph full time at 1B. Still some time for this to change, so we'll see. But playing time looking good for the first half of the year. Put up or shut up time.

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Really dig guys with big-time power, and in the 2nd half last year he showed a huge decrease in K's and increase in BB's compared to the first half. Expecting big things from him.

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Yea some posters in this thread got me sipping the kool-aid now. Not a terrible platoon split, and no real sensible platoon option anyways. Very good power and as pointed out ^ he really got his K's under control in 2nd half. I got him for cheap in a dynasty, so if he keeps rolling and the gains he made in the 2nd half are real then great...if not I've got Mr Hoskins waiting in the wings.

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"Another name for this tier is “How have I not written a sleeper post on all of these guys yet?”  I have a bet with myself that I intend on welching on that says ToJo will be more valuable than Chris Davis this year.  2017 Projections:  64/30/79/.253/1 in 488 ABs" -Razzball

 

Seems like he's cheap power who won't kill you in avg like Davis did last year. 

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53 minutes ago, Carlos Correa said:

Brutal 0-13 start. How about a home run today?

 

Fortunately for him, he's performed no worse than anyone else on my team so he gets to stay. Unfortunately for me, my team is batting around the Mendoza line (CSB).

 

I'd be patient and hold for at least a couple weeks. In most of my leagues there is at least one savvy owner who is likely to add him if I drop. Nice to have ~30 HR power without hurting your AVG at the end of your bench. 

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kris bryant is 1 for 16. joseph has faced finnegan throwing that gem and scherzer in 2 of his 3 starts. i wouldn't panic 

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ok tommy it's not funny any more. snap out of it. your country needs u

 

 

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This guy isn't the answer for the Phillies and he better start performing. Rhys Hoskins ended the year on a tear last year and has started off a bit better this year than last. I expect Hoskins to stay once he gets the call but it's up to Joseph to keep him down. 

 

Joseph has almost negative range in the field to go with his icicle start. 

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He has been dropped in several of my leagues for other 1B like Zimmerman and Duda. 

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Yeah I'm one of those people. It's early so obviously sample size issues and he has a .154 BABIP but his hard contact is at 7%, he's striking out 15% more than last year, has a 10% lower LD% and a 33% IFFB rate so he's not exactly doing anything that would make his BABIP seem like a fluke i.e. hitting the ball hard, hitting lds and not popping up. Obviously he'll get better but with other players like Zimmerman having mechanical changes and Duda being healthy it's hard to justify holding on

Edited by RAZRr1275
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5 hours ago, RAZRr1275 said:

Yeah I'm one of those people. It's early so obviously sample size issues and he has a .154 BABIP but his hard contact is at 7%, he's striking out 15% more than last year, has a 10% lower LD% and a 33% IFFB rate so he's not exactly doing anything that would make his BABIP seem like a fluke i.e. hitting the ball hard, hitting lds and not popping up. Obviously he'll get better but with other players like Zimmerman having mechanical changes and Duda being healthy it's hard to justify holding on

 

I don't think it's strange that those moves were made. A healthy Lucas Duda is a good hitter and the same goes for Zimmerman. It's easy to forget how good those guys were because of their recent injuries. Duda had a wRC+ over 130 in both 2014 and 2015 while hitting a combined 57 HR. 

 

Health is the main concern with both players, especially Zimmerman, but not the skills. 

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joseph now 5 for 18 (.278) starting with the game he got his first hit. homer to straightaway center off strasburg yesterday. i still think he'll get it going sooner or later here

 

 

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3 for 4 tonight, including 2 hits off thor

 

still kind of plugging along, hitting .286 since the day he got his first hit. so he's not really in a death slump any more. he just hasn't done anything actually exciting yet

 

i still think he's in there. power never been a question for him

 

come on tommy. do it.

 

*chancellor palpatine voice* do it

 

 

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First full year as "the guy", there were bound to be growing pains.  I watch all the Phils games and he really is making some good contact.  The team hasn't faced many lefties yet -- they're 23rd/30 in terms of PAs vs. LHP this season.  As Tommy sees more southpaws, I think he'll become a very useful bat.

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I haven't given up. Gets 3 LH next week. It really seems that they have faced a ton of good pitchers early in the year, but that's just what I have thought? All that said, he's got another 2 months to prove he's the guy, because Hoskins isn't messing around in AAA.

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13 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

First full year as "the guy", there were bound to be growing pains.  I watch all the Phils games and he really is making some good contact.  The team hasn't faced many lefties yet -- they're 23rd/30 in terms of PAs vs. LHP this season.  As Tommy sees more southpaws, I think he'll become a very useful bat.

 

Because the NL West is the only division loaded with lefty starters. 

 

The Mets have zero lefty starters. 

The Nats and Braves have one. 

The Marlins have two. 

 

The Pirates and Cardinals have zero. 

The Brewers have one. 

The Cubs and Reds have two. 

 

The Dodgers have three. 

The Rockies, Giants and Snakes have two. 

The Padres have one. 

 

That's 19 lefty starters in the National League, 10 of them are in the NL West. 

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12 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

The Brewers have one. 

 

and the one is tommy milone, who's probably getting bumped for matt garza soon (unless davies keeps on being this bad)

 

Quote

That's 19 lefty starters in the National League, 10 of them are in the NL West. 

 

i hadn't actually realized this, it's interesting

 

still, with all that stuff i went into in the preseason about how joseph got way better against righties in the second half last year, hopefully this doesn't actually hold him back all that much

 

 

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Yeah, I thought about that before I posted, but the distribution of lefties among the divisions doesn't fully account for the discrepancy.  For one thing, relievers are a thing, and rotations change throughout the season, especially at the back end.  But more notably, the Mets are at 12th in MLB in terms of number of PA vs. lefties and the Marlins at 17th.  A lot of it is just luck in terms of whether you happen to get the one or two lefties on the team you're facing, and that sort of thing hasn't had enough time to even out.  Also each team hasn't played the same number of divisional opponents.

 

I'm not saying Joseph is due to get a run of lefties to mash against, just that it seems the team has landed on RHP a lot more so far -- two series vs. the Mets with no lefties, haven't seen Miami or Atlanta at all, etc.

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facing lefty today and batting 5th.  If he doesn't do something, I think he's gonna get cut. (keep an eye on him, but don't think anyone else would pick him up)

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I think he needs some time to find his swing.

 

Small sample, but his line drive % is 9.8% compared to 17.9% last year. Ground ball % is 56.1% compared to 37% last year.

 

Hard hit % is down about 7% and soft hit up about 7%.

 

I would trust last years 347 plate appearances as more of the norm compared to just 60 so far this year.

 

Wouldn't be against benching him until he finds his groove.

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now with a .400+ OBP and 7 xbh over the past two weeks... wonder how much of this it'll take before any fantasy update site mentions his name in a non "about to lose his job" "rhys hoskins callup watch" context. probably another month or so

 

 

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