Topgun

Jose Bautista 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

Too high. Considering age and recently history, way too much risk.

 

Yea, that's getting up there where I'd probably agree with you.  Although, 66'ish seems more in line than the ADP of 100 people were throwing around earlier.

 

Honestly, I look at the other bats around 66, and who's really jumping off the page as a much better and/or much safer pick than Bautista?  Billy Hamilton, AJ Pollock, Matt Carpenter, Dee Gordon, Todd Frazier, Hanley Ramirez.

 

You're kind of getting into the injury risk, or 1 cat stud range of guys there.

Edited by 89Topps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, midlip said:

AJ Pollock around 66?? :wacko:  is this real life? 

I have never understood the Pollock hype myself. 29 years old and has had one good season. He will be picked way before I ever take him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Dodgers said:

I have never understood the Pollock hype myself. 29 years old and has had one good season. He will be picked way before I ever take him.

Fair point, and i had no interest but his ADP's in the late 30's.... not 60's 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Dodgers said:

I have never understood the Pollock hype myself. 29 years old and has had one good season. He will be picked way before I ever take him.

 

in 2015 he was the #5 player in OBP leagues, sandwiched between Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson.

In 2014 he was on a similar pace.

 

The risk is almost entirely injury based, not performance. An ADP of 66 is borderline criminal. He is about 50 spots behind Charlie Blackmon, and personally, I'm not sure their upside is much different at all. 

 

His body  does seem a bit flimsy though, I'll give you that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, midlip said:

Fair point, and i had no interest but his ADP's in the late 30's.... not 60's 

 

Not on ESPN, it's not.  66, on the dot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

Not on ESPN, it's not.  66, on the dot.

 

ESPN rankings are trash for every sport.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, 89Topps said:

ADP has climbed to 66.4 at ESPN.

 

Thanks to all of the "efforts" of threads like this...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Steelers0087 said:

What rankings do you like?

 

I don't like any from the major sites, but typically Yahoo's rankings aren't as ridiculous as ESPN's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

ESPN rankings are trash for every sport.

 

66 is his ADP on ESPN, not their ranking of him. That's where people are actually drafting him. 

 

And as far as actual rankings, the worse they are the better. If their "bad" rankings can influence any of my league mates then I'll happily extract some value. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

66 is his ADP on ESPN, not their ranking of him. That's where people are actually drafting him. 

 

And as far as actual rankings, the worse they are the better. If their "bad" rankings can influence any of my league mates then I'll happily extract some value. 

 

He's actually ranked 68th.  ADP's on ESPN tend to follow their rankings relatively closely, I think mainly because they have such a volume of free leagues.  Lot of people playing casually and just drafting based off the rankings, more or less.  I have no idea if other sites are similar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

He's actually ranked 68th.  ADP's on ESPN tend to follow their rankings relatively closely, I think mainly because they have such a volume of free leagues.  Lot of people playing casually and just drafting based off the rankings, more or less.  I have no idea if other sites are similar.

 

That's exactly why ADP data from the big providers are pretty meaningless.  Too many casual players drafting based on the default rankings.

 

Bautista's ADP in NFBC drafts is 114.  

 

http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all&page=3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

He's actually ranked 68th

Are we talking AJ or Joey? Pollock is ranked 50 (for roto) and Jose is 65. ESPN just did their "rankings summit" and draft kit so they likely made a big jump. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

Are we talking AJ or Joey? Pollock is ranked 50 (for roto) and Jose is 65. ESPN just did their "rankings summit" and draft kit so they likely made a big jump. 

 

Oh heck, what are we taking about here?  Totally lost track here.  JB is ranked 68.

 

Sorry.  I need to sit a couple plays out.

Edited by 89Topps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back to Bautista... I dont think it's unreasonably to target him in the 6th ~mid 60's and definitely in the 7th and beyond 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, midlip said:

Back to Bautista... I dont think it's unreasonably to target him in the 6th ~mid 60's and definitely in the 7th and beyond 

I agree. I wouldn't mind taking him in that range especially in an OBP league. I think he has a monster year compared to his draft price. I also think people are overestimating the effect E5 leaving is going to have on his numbers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bautista, Kemp, Trumbo for me with Bautista for sure #1 and Kemp and Trumbo very close to one another. I play in an OBP league so my view is swayed by that.

 

I figure Bautista should hit more than 30 HR with upside for 40. He should have close to 100 RBIs and 90 runs scored but his OBP separate him from the other two for me.

 

Kemp should hit close to 30 with upside for 35 and I don't see why he can't drive in 100 in that lineup this year (I think the Braves lineup is very underrated) while scoring close to 80 runs. He's also got a career .340 OBP so he's slightly higher than Trumbo for me. I don't expect him to have a .340 OBP this year but something close to .330 isn't unreasonable. 

 

Trumbo should give you 30 HR with obvious upside for 40 after last season but he's only done that once. He's probably going to have similar RBI numbers to both the other guys and similar runs scored but his OBP is much lower. Over the last 3 seasons he sits just at .300. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, doctorm said:

Wow.. this guy sucks.  K'd 4 times?!  damn.

It's still early, but as an owner, I'm not very pleased.  I've seen most of his ABs and he looks lost at the plate, getting fooled often and swinging wildly at pitches outside the zone.  Hopefully he turns it around soon because my team could use it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think he had much of a spring training though.  If he is still sucking in May then I will start panicking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He had a fast start to ST, than went on to WBC and returned with some minor lower-back injurie (or so they say, although idk with his age any injury can be considered minor).

 

Viewing first couple of weeks as his extended ST after missing a fair bit of time in march (cca 2 weeks) seams as objective stance for the time being.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any Jays fans have any further insight on this guy?  With Donaldson on the shelf now with the calf issue, obviously the jays need him to produce even more now.  I've seen a handful of his ab's this year and to me just seems fooled almost every time.  I know it's early and being in Toronto, plus his track record, as long as he's healthy things should even out in the end I would assume.   But honestly I'm thinking of attempting to sell at the first signs of life.  Anyone else have any other input?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now