Homerj24

Aaron Nola 2017 Outlook

102 posts in this topic

Nola was excellent last year through his first 12 starts posting an ERA of 2.65. He was then abused over his finally 8 starts finishing with a 4.78. Later was shut down with a sprained UCL. I was kind of shocked to see his K9 stay above 9 last season. That with his excellent walk rate makes for an interesting target this spring assuming that he is healthy. Can the K/9 continue? I was getting the Brad Radke vibe from him, He's making me take a second look. 

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Just now, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He should have a very good season. Too bad he plays for the Phillies.

I'm gonna bet some big money on the Phillies and Braves this year in Vegas, think they will both be closer to .500 than what I expect their o/u will actually be. If the lines are around 70 wins apiece, that's money in the bank.

 

Also, QS leagues, playing for Philly is pretty nice. Wins shouldn't be standard IMO but that's a whole different can of beans.

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On 1/4/2017 at 1:17 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He should have a very good season. Too bad he plays for the Phillies.

Phillies are rapidly improving.  I agree with fawkes_mulder about them and the Braves. Nola is in a good spot with an improving team and in the NL.

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I don't know about Nola, we haven't seen enough track record of MLB success to know if he'll bounceback to good levels again next season. His K and BB rate is very promising, but so is Pineda, Ross etc and they struggled. You have to be a good contact manager too, and with Nola's fastball it gives him little room for error.

 

Will be interesting to see the draft day price though, if it's low enough i'd be happy to take a shot but I'm not drafting him in the top 40 SPs.

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Nola was mega elite at the start of last year. Didn't own him anywhere but I watched his starts and he wasn't getting lucky IMO. Obviously, he came crashing down to earth, and he got injured, but he was a highly rated pitching prospect and championed as a likely #3 pitcher due to outstanding control, not so much the k rate. We saw him strike a ton of people out and elevate his ceiling to a #2.

 

I would rather own Nola over Pineda by a pretty long shot. I'm not ignoring the risks with Nola (health, chance of repeat ineffectiveness), but I honestly think he's got top 30 upside pretty easily.

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I traded for him in a keeper NL only league when he was kind of on the mend for injury, fully anticipating he might be done for the season because he was a good price for this year.

 

He's going to be a great value in the mid rounds this year. Could be drafted as an SP3/4 and be a 2. 

 

I'm in barring health. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I traded for him in a keeper NL only league when he was kind of on the mend for injury, fully anticipating he might be done for the season because he was a good price for this year.

 

He's going to be a great value in the mid rounds this year. Could be drafted as an SP3/4 and be a 2. 

 

I'm in barring health. 

So how will you gauge his health on draft day?

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4 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

So how will you gauge his health on draft day?

 

If he's making his first start and seems fine in SR, that's enough for me. 

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44 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

If he's making his first start and seems fine in SR, that's enough for me. 

 

I think he will be healthy this season. I'll take 180 IP. 

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loved owning this guy last year and was able to sell high but will be drafting again

 

his 2 seam is nasty and right handed batters would give up on in often

didnt watch him pitch after i traded him so curious as to what changed? health? book was out on him? accuracy?

 

anyways he is dominate when he is working down like most pitchers but that 2 seam curve combo is nice

your forsure not getting anything straight from nola

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

loved owning this guy last year and was able to sell high but will be drafting again

 

his 2 seam is nasty and right handed batters would give up on in often

didnt watch him pitch after i traded him so curious as to what changed? health? book was out on him? accuracy?

 

anyways he is dominate when he is working down like most pitchers but that 2 seam curve combo is nice

your forsure not getting anything straight from nola

 

I'm expecting big things from Nola this season. The Phillies' offense looks rather bleak, but I would be happy with 12-13 wins. Luckily, Nola says he is 100% healthy.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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6 hours ago, Funkenstein said:

Another TJ candidate.  Avoiding

 

Isn't this true about anyone that picks up and throws a baseball? This is where ST comes in handy. If he looks free and easy & his pitches have finish, I'm buying all day.

 

To add, so what if he does go down at some point? With his current ADP, it's not like you're heavily invested. 

Edited by Homerj24

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Advanced metrics say that Nola's ERA and WHIP should have been much lower. So, if regression to the mean occurs in those areas, and he keeps up the surprisingly high K rate he showed last season, he vaults into the top 25 or so SPs.  

 

I am having a lot of trouble getting a clear understanding of the injury he suffered last season.  I can't remember if it was being called a UCL strain or partial tear, and sometimes I'm not even sure that doctors can't find ways to use the terminology interchangeably.  Even if he doesn't have a season ending injury I'm worried he'll receive copious amounts of rest and generally be a little less dynamic than the pitcher we saw last April and May.

 

 

 

 

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Led baseball in Called Strikes per pitch last year.

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P.S. He passed the eyeball test for me big time in some of the games I watched last spring.  Curveball was NASTY.  I remember one local network commentator/former player (forget who) saying his curveball is so impossible to even try to square up that the best strategy for a hitter is to just guess fast ball every time and hope to get lucky.

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26 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

Advanced metrics say that Nola's ERA and WHIP should have been much lower. So, if regression to the mean occurs in those areas, and he keeps up the surprisingly high K rate he showed last season, he vaults into the top 25 or so SPs.  

 

I am having a lot of trouble getting a clear understanding of the injury he suffered last season.  I can't remember if it was being called a UCL strain or partial tear, and sometimes I'm not even sure that doctors can't find ways to use the terminology interchangeably.  Even if he doesn't have a season ending injury I'm worried he'll receive copious amounts of rest and generally be a little less dynamic than the pitcher we saw last April and May.

 

 

 

 

 

I mean a sprain is a tear. Like literally.

 

Talent I'm not worried about. The elbow? Well we'll see what happens. 

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Love the stuff/command combo, and on a per inning basis he's a Top 25 arm for me, but with the existing injury issue and the mechanics I'm worried about his arm. Still will probably end up on a lot of my teams

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I've said some nice things about Nola ITT, but I gotta scale back my enthusiasm. I'm terrified of a Nola TJS this year. I've seen it happen time and time again to pitchers who had an arm strain in the prior year ending up getting TJS the next year. See for example, Carter Capps entering 2016, Yu Darvish entering 2015, Lance Lynn offseason 2015/2016.

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30 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

I've said some nice things about Nola ITT, but I gotta scale back my enthusiasm. I'm terrified of a Nola TJS this year. I've seen it happen time and time again to pitchers who had an arm strain in the prior year ending up getting TJS the next year. See for example, Carter Capps entering 2016, Yu Darvish entering 2015, Lance Lynn offseason 2015/2016.

I'm of the opinion that where he's going the injury risk is more than baked in, though I absolutely agree he's about as risky health-wise as you can get.

The upside is enormous, health is the only thing keeping him from being on the same level of obsession as Paxton for me

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Don't want to give away any paid information, but let's just say Rotoworld's draft guide is reeeeeeally high on him.  I like the guy myself, but their projections and rankings on him are borderline insane.

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Kind of good news-bad news for Nola this spring. Arm seems to be holding up fine after last year's late-season issues. But the results have been less-than-stellar. Are you Nola owners mostly happy that he seems healthy, or worried about the pre-season ERA?

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It's spring training. I am not worried about his stats at all. 

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4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

It's spring training. I am not worried about his stats at all. 

 

 

He still has a lot to prove.  His ST stats mean something, not much, but something.  Same with all Philly SP, except Hellickson (not that he matters)

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