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swfcdan

Jon Gray 2017 Outlook

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Postives were the 185Ks in 168IP, the fact he was actually better at home (whaaaat?) , the 16K game. Negatives the 4.61ERA due to a few major blow ups.

 

I think theres a lot to like and be optimistic about despite the home park. He throws gas, nasty slider, built like a horse. And should go late in drafts next year. As a late round rotation option, I'll gladly take a chance on him.

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10 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Postives were the 185Ks in 168IP, the fact he was actually better at home (whaaaat?) , the 16K game. Negatives the 4.61ERA due to a few major blow ups.

 

I think theres a lot to like and be optimistic about despite the home park. He throws gas, nasty slider, built like a horse. And should go late in drafts next year. As a late round rotation option, I'll gladly take a chance on him.

I see him a lot of sleeper lists, I don't think he will be available in late rounds, unfortunately. I do like him quite a bit too!

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On 1/5/2017 at 8:51 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

I see him a lot of sleeper lists, I don't think he will be available in late rounds, unfortunately. I do like him quite a bit too!

He can't be going that early with a 4.6 ERA last year though surely? And some owners are bound to be scared by Coors and pretty much ignore Rockies pitchers (can't really blame them based on history).

 

But Jon Gray has ace-calibur stuff so it's going to be really interesting to see how he performs there. He is a bit fly ball prone but didn't give up a huge amount of homers last year so that's promising, and the fact he strikes so many out of course is what you need to do pitching there. He should get a load of wins too with that offense behind him, as long as the bullpen doesn't crap the bed.

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yea i like him too...but he still plays in coors.  if someone wants to take him too early then let them.

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In a draft I will often reach for players, but as much as I like Gray I am not sure I can do it for him.

 

He definitely won't fall past his ADP.

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Watching him though, especially on the road (where he can mix in all his pitches more) he really looks like an upcoming ace. Big velocity, and so much movement on his 3 good offspeed pitches and he can throw them all for strikes.

 

He was a huge prospect that was just discounted in fantasy for the "Coors factor" and rightly so. But he already made adjustments for Coors going mainly just FB/SL there last year.

 

Love his K rate and I think he's one of the most interesting players to discuss this offseason. The fact Gray is going against COL history in trying to become what the 2nd level ace pitcher there EVER (so funny how Ubaldo lost it once he left COL) is exciting, and he maybe has the best stuff of any pitcher in their history. Can Gray beat Coors? I think he's got a great chance, although I do wonder if becoming a true ace-level fantasy pitcher might be impossible, but a strong no2 why not.

Edited by swfcdan
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As a dynasty owner, this guy is great for H2H where you can absorb the hits to ERA/WHIP that Coors brings because he will more often than not throw some really great gems.  He's still young and full of promise - I hope that he ends up somewhere else eventually - but even on the Rockies I expect he takes his game to the next level one of these years.

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016s-best-pitches-thrown-by-starters/

I'm posting this link for three reasons:

A. Gray's slider ranks 13th

B. This paragraph:

Do you know how good

 Jon Gray was once he started throwing the curve regularly? He had a top-25 strikeout minus walk rate from the moment he started throwing the curveball more than 10% of the time in early July. The Rockies have something special with this young man.

C. Nasty slider GIF:

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Yep saw that article. He had some blowouts last year when his slider was off, and some games when the bullpen came in and crapped the bed for him (remember the Phillys game when he left with 2 on and a 2-0 lead, the pen ended up giving up 4 runs in the 7th inning). So those things really bloated his ERA, when his FIP/xFIP/SIERA (whichever you prefer) all said 3.6 would have been more accurate.

 

For sleeper purposes im glad that wasn't his ERA last year! I'm sure me and Mysox are going to have Gray on nearly all our teams next year.

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Just now, swfcdan said:

Yep saw that article. He had some blowouts last year when his slider was off, and some games when the bullpen came in and crapped the bed for him (remember the Phillys game when he left with 2 on and a 2-0 lead, the pen ended up giving up 4 runs in the 7th inning). So those things really bloated his ERA, when his FIP/xFIP/SIERA (whichever you prefer) all said 3.6 would have been more accurate.

 

For sleeper purposes im glad that wasn't his ERA last year! I'm sure me and Mysox are going to have Gray on nearly all our teams next year.

 

As will I. 

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Doubt he will be available in my league, but I might make an offer to the team who has him.  He intrigues me. 

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I know a lot of you guys are high on him, but it is tough to roster a SP with that high ERA and very little wins. The WHIP is also even higher than what I want from a SP. I think he is definitely more valuable in H2H than Roto. If I could get for $1 or 2 I may take the bait maybe just so I can complain to mysonx when he struggles.:)

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18 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

I know a lot of you guys are high on him, but it is tough to roster a SP with that high ERA and very little wins. The WHIP is also even higher than what I want from a SP. I think he is definitely more valuable in H2H than Roto. If I could get for $1 or 2 I may take the bait maybe just so I can complain to mysonx when he struggles.:)

 

I play H2H points. He's pretty good in that format.

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33 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

I know a lot of you guys are high on him, but it is tough to roster a SP with that high ERA and very little wins. The WHIP is also even higher than what I want from a SP. I think he is definitely more valuable in H2H than Roto. If I could get for $1 or 2 I may take the bait maybe just so I can complain to mysonx when he struggles.:)

For the record, he was pretty solid after I touted him haha. Definitely had some blowups though, no denying that.

Your issues are all with last year's numbers though. There are many signs that point to this year's numbers being better than last. A pitcher who puts up Gray's 2016 numbers is pretty useless. A pitcher who puts up what I expect from him in 2017 is quite useful.

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If he can get his ERA to the 3.5-3.7 range, he will be plenty useful with the strikeouts. 

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1 hour ago, swfcdan said:

Yep saw that article. He had some blowouts last year when his slider was off, and some games when the bullpen came in and crapped the bed for him (remember the Phillys game when he left with 2 on and a 2-0 lead, the pen ended up giving up 4 runs in the 7th inning). So those things really bloated his ERA, when his FIP/xFIP/SIERA (whichever you prefer) all said 3.6 would have been more accurate.

 

For sleeper purposes im glad that wasn't his ERA last year! I'm sure me and Mysox are going to have Gray on nearly all our teams next year.

I plan on it!

I am slightly worried his ADP will skyrocket a ton as more people take notice of his ace-like peripherals (let's face it, these things we're looking at are hardly top secret anymore), but hopefully Coors keeps that at bay.

I don't think he'll ever skyrocket to a point where I wouldn't be willing to take him, but might skyrocket to a point where a pitcher I like even more is also there (lots of mid-late round pitching sleepers I love).

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3 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I plan on it!

I am slightly worried his ADP will skyrocket a ton as more people take notice of his ace-like peripherals (let's face it, these things we're looking at are hardly top secret anymore), but hopefully Coors keeps that at bay.

I don't think he'll ever skyrocket to a point where I wouldn't be willing to take him, but might skyrocket to a point where a pitcher I like even more is also there (lots of mid-late round pitching sleepers I love).

 

I.E. Duffy, McCullers, Nola, etc

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Just now, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

I.E. Duffy, McCullers, Nola, etc

You know me too well.

Those guys plus Paxton were who I had in mind. Hopefully I snag Gray+some of those guys, but those guys are higher on my priority list (just because of Coors) if I can only snag 1-2

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On 1/11/2017 at 8:27 PM, mysonx3 said:

I plan on it!

I am slightly worried his ADP will skyrocket a ton as more people take notice of his ace-like peripherals (let's face it, these things we're looking at are hardly top secret anymore), but hopefully Coors keeps that at bay.

I don't think he'll ever skyrocket to a point where I wouldn't be willing to take him, but might skyrocket to a point where a pitcher I like even more is also there (lots of mid-late round pitching sleepers I love).

That's what I think will halt the hype train on him. And who can blame people, Rockies pitchers have been known for being unreliable in fantasy ever since I've followed baseball. But they rarely have had ace-like talented pitchers like Gray, they had Ubaldo when he was and that worked out well for them, they haven't had too many others and FA pitchers clearly shy away from moving there.

 

And Gray hasn't proved he can be a very valuable fantasy player yet, so I think it will keep his price down all off-season and make him the best pitching sleeper around. All his FIP/xFIP/SIERA metrics indicate a 3.6ERA, what hurt him was giving up big innings (not the HR ball) and so an improvement out of the stretch is needed. But just watch a game back from last year and you can see in every start that his stuff is tremendous, the new curveball really improved throughout the year and became a nice weapon he can now use more.

 

 

Edited by swfcdan
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The problem with being a SP in Coors is even if a starter leaves the game with a 1-2 run lead a lesser bullpen pitcher is more likely to give lose that lead.

 

I can see Gray being drafted a little high.

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On 1/14/2017 at 3:02 AM, jwblue said:

The problem with being a SP in Coors is even if a starter leaves the game with a 1-2 run lead a lesser bullpen pitcher is more likely to give lose that lead.

 

I can see Gray being drafted a little high.

NFBC ADP 180 now so I wouldn't say that is high at all. Around SPs like Moore, Odorizzi and Manaea, isn't close who I'd rather have.

 

http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all&page=4

 

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With the concern over his home park, I think Gray is going later than he should be based on the skills he showed last year. I could see him turning out to be one of the better SP values in drafts this year. I think there's top 25 SP upside.  Am I off base?

Consider he's a 25 year old former 3rd overall pick who...

- Had a 3.60 FIP/3.61 xFIP, indicating his 4.61 ERA was inflated by bad luck.

- Had a 9.91 K/9 that was 16th among pitchers with at least 100 IP last year.

- Had a 12.1% swinging strike rate that was 13th among pitchers with at least 100 IP last year. The league average was 10.1%.

- Had a 62.4% first pitch strike rate that was 2.1% better than the league average.

- Had a 75.1% contact rate that was 3.1% better than the league average.

- Had a solid, if unspectacular, 1.260 WHIP.

- In 15 of his 29 starts, Gray lasted 6+ IP with 2 or fewer ER. That's more than the likes of Strasburg, Greinke, deGrom and Fulmer.

Edited by rdf8585
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Having a nice little spring 

 

I love guys that K people like he does

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Picked him up in the second half last year and used him plug and play. I'll be targeting him in my league. As was mentioned above, there was a "turned a corner" moment in the season and he was a K machine. Juice approved.

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