jfazz23

DJ Lemahieu 2017 Outlook

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My question is WHERE is he going to hit in the batting order.  Im praying 2nd behind blackmon,but in front of Nolan, Cargo, etc

 

My concern is they might hit desmond 2nd....any thoughts?

 

 

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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

My question is WHERE is he going to hit in the batting order.  Im praying 2nd behind blackmon,but in front of Nolan, Cargo, etc

 

My concern is they might hit desmond 2nd....any thoughts?

 

 

I think, with that lineup, it doesn't matter. You have a lot of big boppers who can be put anywhere. The 1-9 thing matters for ABs, but with DJs OBP and ability to hit for a high average I think it doesn't matter if he hits 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th... Even at 6th you likely have Dahl hitting next.

But I, too, hope for 2nd. Lots of SB opportunity imo.

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3 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I think, with that lineup, it doesn't matter. You have a lot of big boppers who can be put anywhere. The 1-9 thing matters for ABs, but with DJs OBP and ability to hit for a high average I think it doesn't matter if he hits 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th... Even at 6th you likely have Dahl hitting next.

But I, too, hope for 2nd. Lots of SB opportunity imo.

he only stole 11 last year i think, but 23 the year before.  hes 28 years old so a lot of people will say hes in his baseball prime.  I wonder how much he will run tho hitting in front of Nolan and CarGo though??

 

edit: he stole 11 last year and was caught 7 times....terrible ratio, wonder if they will give him the Red light now??

Edited by jfazz23

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Projections I have seen is hitting 2nd...he is pretty prototypical 2 hitter, high average but not necessarily ton of speed or power, but can move guys along, put the ball in play.  Desmond likely 5 with Dahl/Story at 6-7

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The new philosophy of batting order might result in him coming in near the end of the batting order. As teams switch to power-heavy top 4, you could see Story batting 2nd, and Lemahieu batting 7th, providing an opportunity to steal bases in front of the Wolters + P spots, and hope to make it back around to Blackmon & co. to knock him in. This could become even more effective if T. Murphy comes up with the power to put Lemahieu in the 8 slot. The P-spot could be dedicated to getting him in scoring position for the top of the order.

This is purely speculation. I haven't seen anything to indicate that Colorado is taking this new approach, but if any team could benefit from switching to power-top batting order, it's the Rockies.

Edited by Agnominous

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28 minutes ago, Agnominous said:

The new philosophy of batting order might result in him coming in near the end of the batting order. As teams switch to power-heavy top 4, you could see Story batting 2nd, and Lemahieu batting 7th, providing an opportunity to steal bases in front of the Wolters + P spots, and hope to make it back around to Blackmon & co. to knock him in. This could become even more effective if T. Murphy comes up with the power to put Lemahieu in the 8 slot. The P-spot could be dedicated to getting him in scoring position for the top of the order.

This is purely speculation. I haven't seen anything to indicate that Colorado is taking this new approach, but if any team could benefit from switching to power-top batting order, it's the Rockies.

Good point, and I was gonna mention that, years of watching Bud Black, I am not too worried that he will go "new school" with his lineup, so in his world, a 2-hitter is more of that DJL type player, someone who can handle the bat.  

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22 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Good point, and I was gonna mention that, years of watching Bud Black, I am not too worried that he will go "new school" with his lineup, so in his world, a 2-hitter is more of that DJL type player, someone who can handle the bat.  

agreed.  DJ is a HIGH OBP guy...i dont see why you WOULDNT hit him ahead of nolan/cargo/desmond/story

 

story has more power....but i think his OBP will be 60-70 points lower at least

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I think, with that lineup, it doesn't matter. You have a lot of big boppers who can be put anywhere. The 1-9 thing matters for ABs, but with DJs OBP and ability to hit for a high average I think it doesn't matter if he hits 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th... Even at 6th you likely have Dahl hitting next.

But I, too, hope for 2nd. Lots of SB opportunity imo.

 

Of course it matters. He's a BA player. it matters an incredible amount.

 

Jose Altuve and DJ Lam's BA's were ranked the same on the ESPN player rater despite the fact that Altuve hit .338 and LeMahieu hit .348. Why? Because you aren't actually buying BA from players in a matter of speaking, you're buying Hs and ABs. Altuve had 216 Hs and Lam had 192, so Altuve's BA weight scores him more points despite the fact that LeMahieu actually had a significantly higher BA. 

 

If DJ has .310+ the difference that that'll have on the weight of your team BA is astronomically different between if he's getting more ABs from batting 2nd over 8th. 

 

This article is a little old but it shows the difference. If LeMahieu is averaging 4.50 PA/G at 2nd on an NL team, he'd be looking at about 675 PAs in 150 GP. If LeMahieu is averaging 3.87 PA/G at 7th on an NL team, he'd be looking at about 580 PAs in 150 GP. The difference those two will have in BA/OBP weights is very very significant. Anything in that range is incredibly important distinction from one to the next... thi sisn't a player likely to have much power or speed so you're going to need those AB/G numbers to be as high as possible so the BA can weigh heavily into your score. 

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5 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Of course it matters. He's a BA player. it matters an incredible amount.

 

Jose Altuve and DJ Lam's BA's were ranked the same on the ESPN player rater despite the fact that Altuve hit .338 and LeMahieu hit .348. Why? Because you aren't actually buying BA from players in a matter of speaking, you're buying Hs and ABs. Altuve had 216 Hs and Lam had 192, so Altuve's BA weight scores him more points despite the fact that LeMahieu actually had a significantly higher BA. 

 

If DJ has .310+ the difference that that'll have on the weight of your team BA is astronomically different between if he's getting more ABs from batting 2nd over 8th. 

 

This article is a little old but it shows the difference. If LeMahieu is averaging 4.50 PA/G at 2nd on an NL team, he'd be looking at about 675 PAs in 150 GP. If LeMahieu is averaging 3.87 PA/G at 7th on an NL team, he'd be looking at about 580 PAs in 150 GP. The difference those two will have in BA/OBP weights is very very significant. Anything in that range is incredibly important distinction from one to the next... thi sisn't a player likely to have much power or speed so you're going to need those AB/G numbers to be as high as possible so the BA can weigh heavily into your score. 

 

Excellent post. I knew its importance, but hadn't seen it written out so well 

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Looks like he's batting second. I'm probably going to move him into my top 50. 

 

Here's a post from my rankings thread: 

 

On 2/21/2017 at 0:42 PM, taobball said:

 

Forgot to address this point. I just see most of Odor's stats as potential pitfalls. Particularly the steals. I'm really worried about the steals just evaporating. He's below the point of diminishing returns even in 2016 and on his career he's very far below. If he moves back in BA/HR but keeps double digit steals I think he's underrated and probably with his ceiling I may need to move him up a bit, but I'm really worried about the steals just going away and that drops him for me. Kinsler is another candidate who's just so much safer, but DJL is a seperate point.

 

There is no way in HELL I'm taking Odor over DJL. If DJL is indeed going to be the two-hitter, there is a vastly greater chance that I move DJL up my rankings. I think DJL is a phenomenal hitter. I mean we're talking I think the upside could be something like (if he's batting second) a .330 BA, .400 OBP, 120 Runs, 10 Homers, 20 Steals. Like a better Daniel Murphy at second base. DJL's batted ball profile is incredible. Hard% is great, Oppo% is great, LD/GB%s are great, his Contact% are great, he barely strikes out, and his xBABIPs which are not influenced by Coors based on last year are through the roof. One thing even before you brought up this point that I realized I had to adjust was that I need to make DJL my #1 BA because I think DJL is going to have the #1 BA. Over Altuve. Over Murphy. Over Votto.  

 

Take a look at his Spray chart. You know what's fascinating about it...? Click on it and think about it for a second...

DJ Lem 2016 Spray Chart

 

You figure it out...?

 

...

 

It really really looks like he's left handed. But he's not. He's right handed. He's SPRAYING the ball to the center and opposite field. We have a two years sample size of him spraying the ball like htis and his yearly BABIPs are .362 and .388. This year he boosted his Hard% by a whopping 9%, to go from 26% (below league average) to 35% (significantly above league average). He also boosted his Contact% from 85.2% to an insane 90.2% at the same time. He also has a two year trend of showing excellent patience, very low O-Swings, and is now about a 9-10% BBer. There is ZERO chance LeMahieu moves down and if he's for sure batting at the #2 slot there is an incredible chance he moves up the rankings. 

 

So in 2015 DJL dramatically stopped pulling the ball and improved his patience to greatly improve his BABIP.

In 2016 DJL dramatically increased both his Contact% while simultaneously increasing his Hard% and continuing to improve his patience. 

 

DJL gets no respect and he's got a real chance to be a monsteer that people just don't expect this year. Even if he doesn't steal more than 10 and hit more than 10 he's a monster. 

 

Here's a cool little tid bit. 

 

"""""

Theo Epstein is doing one hell of a job in turning the Chicago Cubs into a potential dynasty. But just as baseball players swing and miss, the Cubs’ President of Baseball Operations did so as well — back in 2011 — when he dealt infielder DJ LeMahieu to the Colorado Rockies.

And Epstein owned it.

“Sometimes, you show up somewhere and you can make a mistake in your first off-season by not being as familiar as you should be with a player, because you haven’t seen him yourself in person,” Epstein told the New York Times.  “We felt like there were good bat-to-ball skills there [with LeMahieu], and sound defense. From the reports, we weren’t sold on his bat speed, didn’t think there’d be a lot of power. But he’s certainly proving us wrong. The bat-to-ball is really elite, and he’s made himself into one of the better defensive second basemen in the league.”

""""""

http://www.fanragsports.com/news/theo-epstein-reflects-trading-dj-lemahieu-rockies/

And here's a fangraphs article.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dj-lemahieu-gets-no-respect/

 

I'm all. Freaking. In. 

Edited by taobball
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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

Looks like he's batting second. I'm probably going to move him into my top 50. 

 

Here's a post from my rankings thread: 

 

 

Here's a cool little tid bit. 

 

"""""

Theo Epstein is doing one hell of a job in turning the Chicago Cubs into a potential dynasty. But just as baseball players swing and miss, the Cubs’ President of Baseball Operations did so as well — back in 2011 — when he dealt infielder DJ LeMahieu to the Colorado Rockies.

And Epstein owned it.

“Sometimes, you show up somewhere and you can make a mistake in your first off-season by not being as familiar as you should be with a player, because you haven’t seen him yourself in person,” Epstein told the New York Times.  “We felt like there were good bat-to-ball skills there [with LeMahieu], and sound defense. From the reports, we weren’t sold on his bat speed, didn’t think there’d be a lot of power. But he’s certainly proving us wrong. The bat-to-ball is really elite, and he’s made himself into one of the better defensive second basemen in the league.”

""""""

http://www.fanragsports.com/news/theo-epstein-reflects-trading-dj-lemahieu-rockies/

And here's a fangraphs article.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dj-lemahieu-gets-no-respect/

 

I'm all. Freaking. In. 

agree.  kept himin my keep 8 keeper.  its an OPS league and he was top 40 for me last year.

 

im wondering, since Blackmon said hes going to try and run more, do you think DJL will too????

like, is it a team philosphy?  if DJL could get 20 or close to 20SB he could be in for another great year in that Offense!

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

agree.  kept himin my keep 8 keeper.  its an OPS league and he was top 40 for me last year.

 

im wondering, since Blackmon said hes going to try and run more, do you think DJL will too????

like, is it a team philosphy?  if DJL could get 20 or close to 20SB he could be in for another great year in that Offense!

 

I mean it's certainly possible. Off the top of my head I don't know what I project but his runs total to me is going to be around 110 with the new confident of him batting 2nd. Maybe it comes with 60 RBI but I'm thinking .325+/110/10/60/14 with potential honestly for 25, I mean he stole 23 in 2015

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I mean it's certainly possible. Off the top of my head I don't know what I project but his runs total to me is going to be around 110 with the new confident of him batting 2nd. Maybe it comes with 60 RBI but I'm thinking .325+/110/10/60/14 with potential honestly for 25, I mean he stole 23 in 2015

ya, you think he has any chance at seeing a power increase...similar to blackmon at all? like not as much, but does he have potential for like 16-18?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

ya, you think he has any chance at seeing a power increase...similar to blackmon at all? like not as much, but does he have potential for like 16-18?

 

Nah.  16-18 is more than his entire MLB career before last year combined.  Its more than his entire minor league career combined.  Just be happy if he is at or near double digits again.

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18 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Nah.  16-18 is more than his entire MLB career before last year combined.  Its more than his entire minor league career combined.  Just be happy if he is at or near double digits again.

again....guys change/get better.

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

again....guys change/get better.

 

I agree but I really don't see him hitting more than 12-14. He's a 19-21% FB% guy and I just dont' think he's really trying to hit for all that much power. Maybe he can build more power but I just don't think his game is ever gonna be over the wall power I think he's looking for a gap with every swing. 

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Does anyone think last season was a career year and his ADP is too high?

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2 minutes ago, B&F said:

Does anyone think last season was a career year and his ADP is too high?

 

He's got a 90+% contact rate in Colorado and hits in the 2 spot. No. 

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25 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

 

DJ might go to the Daniel Murphy school of power development. 

 

I usually need to see a contact type player make that type of change before I buy in on that. 

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3 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

I usually need to see a contact type player make that type of change before I buy in on that. 

 

I'm not betting on it but if you wait until it happens then you'll have to pay face value for it. 

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9 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

 

I'm not betting on it but if you wait until it happens then you'll have to pay face value for it. 

 

I'd have to see something to make me buy into it either visually (trying to pull breaking stuff more) or statistically (pull rate,  spray chart) first.  And if he's made a conscious change to try and hit for more power it'll show up in spring training.  The indicators will be there. 

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14 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

 

I'm not betting on it but if you wait until it happens then you'll have to pay face value for it. 

You STILL don't have to pay face value for Murphy, and he broke out in the power department almost a year and a half ago

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1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

You STILL don't have to pay face value for Murphy

 

Really? I'm seeing him go in the mid to high $20 dollar range even with injury concerns. 

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