fawkes_mulder

Fernando Tatis, Jr.- 3B/SS San Diego

Recommended Posts

John Sickels is doing a review of his pre-season Top 20s for each team and has this to say about Tatis today:

 

Quote

 

14) Fernando Tatis Jr, SS, Grade C+/B-: Age 18, signed by White Sox out of Dominican Republic in 2015 for $700,000, son of Fernando Tatis; traded to Padres in James Shields deal; glowing reports and impressive performance in Low-A, hitting .266/.364/.488 with 17 homers, 27 steals, 56 walks, 113 strikeouts in 383 at-bats; power, speed, patience, and at least some chance to stay at shortstop although third is most likely destination long-term, elite prospect, now very strong B+ or A-.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/8/3/16012948/mid-season-review-san-diego-padres-top-20-prospects-for-2017

 

 

 

That B+ or A- would make him the top prospect in the Padres' organization.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, elrey said:

Is the speed for real?

I can't remember where but I've seen his speed graded out as a 45/50 on some scouting sites. It kinda through me for a loop. So either he's compensating for his lack of speed by just knowing how/when to run. But with almost 30 SBs you'd think his speed is atleast a bit above average. We'll find out as he moves up levels. I've seen quite a few prospects with below average speed steal bases in the lower levels but then as they get higher their SBs taper off quickly.

 

But I have no idea if that grade is, legitimate at all but I've seen it posted at 2 different respected sites...

 

But then again I've also seen BP grade out his speed as a 60

Edited by JakeSarna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

promoted to AA, skipping high A

 

hes 18 in AA

 

he has cut his K's down big time too, now up to 22 jacks and 30 sb's

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aggressive as hell promotion. I guess the feeling is if he struggles the ROS there he can still be started at High A and that would be seen as a "progression" from this season, and if he holds his own or excels - well look out.

I expect it to be ugly given his strike out issues in A-Ball, but maybe it's something to make him think about over the off-season, as a challenge of sorts for him rather than cruising into the off-season tearing up Low-A.

The 16 BB in last 10 games might be an impetus for this promotion as well - if he's not being challenged by the opposition, but they're pitching around him. He's also hitting over .400 in the last 10 games.

Edited by Baseball Jonze
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

really for the kind of power and speed hes showing a K per game isnt anything to worry about

 

his BB/K rate has climbed drastically

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

really for the kind of power and speed hes showing a K per game isnt anything to worry about

 

his BB/K rate has climbed drastically

 

Agreed.....75 walks decreases my concerns about the K totals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

really for the kind of power and speed hes showing a K per game isnt anything to worry about

 

his BB/K rate has climbed drastically

 

Plus from just about every scout, something has clicked in him where around mid season he learned to lay off bad pitches while also improving in light years on his ability to hit breaking balls, all during the season which should tell you how good this kid could actually become. It's rare to see a hitter at his age to actually make drastic improvements in those areas during a season...And I agree, that high walk rate really plays down the amount of strikeouts he's totaled so far.

Edited by JakeSarna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

another thing is, 18 year olds very very rarely hit 20+ hr's in low A, hell he owns the Ft Wayne record for homers and set it early August

 

he could with another 8 jacks have 30 as an 18 yr old, splitting time between low A and AA, let that sink in a bit

 

Mike Trout for example, hit only 10 homers in 500 AB is lowA/A+

Stanton hit 39 in 486 AB in low A

ARod hit 21 across 3 levels

Jon Singleton (huge power prospect) hit 14

Canseco hit 14

Griffey hit 13

 

so I am looking for power hitters who have more than 21 hr's at 18 and not finding much

 

its really hard to search like this

 

Edited by Golden Spikes
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/21/2017 at 2:17 AM, Golden Spikes said:

another thing is, 18 year olds very very rarely hit 20+ hr's in low A, hell he owns the Ft Wayne record for homers and set it early August

 

he could with another 8 jacks have 30 as an 18 yr old, splitting time between low A and AA, let that sink in a bit

 

Mike Trout for example, hit only 10 homers in 500 AB is lowA/A+

Stanton hit 39 in 486 AB in low A

ARod hit 21 across 3 levels

Jon Singleton (huge power prospect) hit 14

Canseco hit 14

Griffey hit 13

 

so I am looking for power hitters who have more than 21 hr's at 18 and not finding much

 

its really hard to search like this

 

I think Hudson potts is 18 and he hit 20 HRs this year too. I love that kids potential...But Potts K%/BB% is an big ouch. But the power is legit and he has a ton of time to make the necessary adjustments/improvements. But back to Tatis, just the improvements he made in-season shows you how great he could be. Coming into the season he couldn't hit breaking balls worth of shiite. By the all star break he was already able to lay off bad pitches and able to recognize the breaks on pitches and not only would he hit homers off of them, he was able to hit gaps to the opposite side of the field. By the end of the season, he pretty much closed any holes he had in regards to hitting breaking balls. And his plate discipline improved greatly because of it.

 

I remember watching his dad when I was in high school. It felt like he never really materialized into a star because he seemed to never play full seasons back to back. I haven't checked papas stats so that could have just been my preception. But it's a fact that his dad never fulfilled his potential consistently. I remember when his dad first showed up, some scouts were saying he could be another Juan Gonzalez or chili Davis, can't remember which one tho. Except if anyone witnessed Juan Gonzalez, that man was a true monster! (Yes he juiced but his didnt have to)....anyways, the 3 prospects I'm very excited for after this season are Fernando Tatis jr, Forrest Whitley and Michel Baez. Their ceilings are limitless. Id also throw in Austin Hays but id stick with those 3. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My bad, I just saw you were looking for 18 year olds with more then 21 HRs. I thought you said 18 with 20+. Guess you can cross Hudson potts off...

Edited by JakeSarna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, JakeSarna said:

My bad, I just saw you were looking for 18 year olds with more then 21 HRs. I thought you said 18 with 20+. Guess you can cross Hudson potts off...

 

no thats fine, Potts is another future power stick, although not sure if he will hit enough.  I was looking for 20+ at 18, and at the time I think Potts had 16 (which was like 5th in the league and 2nd among 18 year olds)

 

Thing with Potts is he is 6'3 220 right now, there isnt much build left in that body, whereas Tatis is 6'3 190, if he can get to 210 and stay at SS, we are looking at a 40/20 type guy (if the SB's are legit)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

no thats fine, Potts is another future power stick, although not sure if he will hit enough.  I was looking for 20+ at 18, and at the time I think Potts had 16 (which was like 5th in the league and 2nd among 18 year olds)

 

Thing with Potts is he is 6'3 220 right now, there isnt much build left in that body, whereas Tatis is 6'3 190, if he can get to 210 and stay at SS, we are looking at a 40/20 type guy (if the SB's are legit)

Agreed on Potts. I see potts power as real. If he never works out his K problems and doesn't pan out as a hitter, I can't help but think his offensive ceiling is that of Dan Uggla. But Potts actually has a pretty good hit tool, and he's only 18 and I could easily see him as a  .270-.280 AVG and 25-30 HRs in his prime if everything clicks.

 

Tatis father was only 5'11 and had good speed but it never materialized in the majors. I think he had one season of 20+ SBs and it was his best season in 1999 (I believe he hit the 2 grand slams in one inning that year). But Tatis is just another animal from his father. I hope he can stay healthy and not have a bunch of short seasons like his dad.  At the rate Tatis is improving in all facets of his game, I'm almost ready to slap a future superstar label on him. I'm very excited to see what he does next year. He could very well be the most rounded 5 tool prospect by next season, if he isn't already....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, JakeSarna said:

Agreed on Potts. I see potts power as real. If he never works out his K problems and doesn't pan out as a hitter, I can't help but think his offensive ceiling is that of Dan Uggla. But Potts actually has a pretty good hit tool, and he's only 18 and I could easily see him as a  .270-.280 AVG and 25-30 HRs in his prime if everything clicks.

 

Tatis father was only 5'11 and had good speed but it never materialized in the majors. I think he had one season of 20+ SBs and it was his best season in 1999 (I believe he hit the 2 grand slams in one inning that year). But Tatis is just another animal from his father. I hope he can stay healthy and not have a bunch of short seasons like his dad.  At the rate Tatis is improving in all facets of his game, I'm almost ready to slap a future superstar label on him. I'm very excited to see what he does next year. He could very well be the most rounded 5 tool prospect by next season, if he isn't already....

 

Yah one thing I like about Potts, not to derail the Tatis thread, is that just like Tatis, his contact rates and K/BB rates increased/decreased nicely during the second half of the season

 

Uggla would be a hell of a career for Potts, I am not sure if he can move into that Trumbo/CDavis/KDavis territory, or if hes more of a Mark Reynolds/Chris Carter, either would be fine

 

My fear with Tatis, is if he is 6'3 and ends up built like his father in a 5 or so years, he becomes just a slugger, that speed rating is only a 45/50, although maybe hes just a better game speed guy than actual speed.  It will be interesting to see how he progresses next year, I think he starts at AA and is a mid-season callup if he is producing, and while I can't wait to see him reach the bigs, with the history of the Padres prospect failures, I wouldnt mind giving him more seasoning.  We don't need him to become another Profar

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This has been a pretty big week for Fernando Tatis Jr. in a lot of ways! In the scouting community, he's risen up top 100 prospect lists universally after a terrific 2017 season. Baseball America placed him 9th on their top 100 list, Keith Law placed him 3rd on his list just behind Ronald Acuna and Vlad Guerrero Jr., and MLB.com Prospect Watch gave him a 65 overall grade which so far has only been matched or exceeded by Nick Senzel, Gleyber Torres, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Shohei Ohtani. Note that OFers have yet to be revealed on MLB.com and there are just 3 guys that will likely be in the conversation for that 65 overall ranking or better in Acuna, Victor Robles, and Eloy Jiminez. The point of that super long sentence is that Tatis Jr. is pretty much universally considered a top 10 prospect in baseball at this point. Tatis Jr. also received an invitation to the Padres MLB major-league camp this spring this week. Now he's very likely going back to the minors (back to AA San Antonio?), but it's pretty impressive for a just turned 19-year-old. Excited to see what he does in 2018!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I predict Tatis jr. will be the consensus #1 prospect on preseason lists this time next year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Letitbe793 said:

I predict Tatis jr. will be the consensus #1 prospect on preseason lists this time next year. 

 

If he continues from last season, that isn't outlandish. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Letitbe793 said:

I predict Tatis jr. will be the consensus #1 prospect on preseason lists this time next year. 

 

Vlad JR says Hello

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.