Letitbe793

Logan Forsythe 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Thoughts on Forsythe after the trade to the Dodgers and news that he will likely be leading off in that good lineup?

I see him as one of the better value picks at 2B this year. 

Edited by Letitbe793

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like him as more of that super sub, not necessarily someone to rely upon, but Dodgers have gotten some guys like Turner to really blossom a little later, so maybe there is something there.  He is moving from the hitter friendly AL East, to a tougher one, although with Pads staff essentially a 4A staff and him playing for the Dodgers so he doesnt have to hit their pitching,  

 

If you look at Chase Utley's stats from last year:  .252 14 52 2 79 if he put up those numbers, I think most would not be overly surprised.  

 

I think on my 2B list at best he is around No.17 for me. 

Edited by parrothead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Like him as more of that super sub, not necessarily someone to rely upon, but Dodgers have gotten some guys like Turner to really blossom a little later, so maybe there is something there.  He is moving from the hitter friendly AL East, to a tougher one, although with Pads staff essentially a 4A staff and him playing for the Dodgers so he doesnt have to hit their pitching,  

 

If you look at Chase Utley's stats from last year:  .252 14 52 2 79 if he put up those numbers, I think most would not be overly surprised.  

 

I think on my 2B list at best he is around No.17 for me. 

 

That stat line is incredibly low for me. I'm much closer to .270/20/10

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

That stat line is incredibly low for me. I'm much closer to .270/20/10

So .255 hitter lifetime is gonna hit .270 and steal 10 bases after never doing that before in his career?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, parrothead said:

So .255 hitter lifetime is gonna hit .270 and steal 10 bases after never doing that before in his career?  

 

 

Firstly, Forsythe made significant platoon advances in the last two years. (Here's an article for you on it: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/logan-forsythe-and-platoon-advances/) but in general:

Forsythe v. RHP:
Debut thru 2014:

.215/.283/.296

 

2015-2016:

.268/.346/.408

 

There's a reason he's hit .281 and .264 the last two seasons. He's an improved hitter. I'd ignore blocking him together has "career data." (And he has done .270 before in 2015, as just referenced). You could value the .255 BA over his career more or the .273 BA over the past two years more. I'm choosing the latter, but that's up to the individual on if you believe in the improvement. 

 

Secondly, I said "closer to" and not "exactly." Forsythe has stolen 15 bases over the past two years, one of them being slightly injury shorted, and has averaged 7.6 SBs per 600 PAs over the past two years and 8.9 SBs per 600 PAs over the course of his career. Considering that, as the lead-off hitter for the Dodgers, a full 150-155 G season would be closer to 700 PAs than 600, you can see why I say "close to 10." Not 10 mind you, that's not what I'm projecting, but I will have probably 7-9 written into my spreadsheet, which is substantially different from the 2 that Chase had. 

 

Another thing: 


Forsythe sacrificed some Contact for power in 2016. His contact rate dropped by about 4%, but his Hard% spiked to 36%. He struck out a bit more, but by increasing his damage on balls in play, I think he has even more upside as his batted ball peripherals are pretty damn good.

 

Forsythe had a .314 BABIP and .264 BA in 2016. Think his BABIP was fortunate? Think again. Chamberlain's xBABIP model actually shows that Forsythe was UNFORTUNATE with a .314 BABIP, as his xBABIP is .325. 

 

Why is the xBABIP so high? Just check it out:

Good LD% at 22.5%

Healthy Gb/FB to sustain average (42.0% GB to 35.2% FB)

Very low Soft% (11.7%) (4th Best in Baseball: Miguel Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, JD Martinez, Logan Forsythe) 
High Hard% (36.0%)

And even a great distribution of spreading the field: 39.1% Pull, 32.9% Center, 28.0% Oppo

 

Adjust his 2016 data using his xBABIP and increasing him from 127 GP to 155 GP and you get this line:

 

.270/.339/.450, 24 HRs, 7 SBs, and with that OBP and at Lead-Off, he'll be poor in RBI but potentially have more than 100 Runs and as a lead-off hitter has more opportunities to hit Homers or Steal bases than most hitters in baseball, so the volume should help. 

 

My projection is fairly close to that, with less power, but I do believe that the power upside is there with his altered approach and his incredible patience (8th Lowest Chase% In baseball).'

 

Yes sir, you could say that I'm a pretty damn big fan of Logan Forsythe. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Comfortable with him as my starting 2nd baseman. He has 20 HR power, will hit between .260-280, and will have good counting stats at the top of LA's lineup. I think I would agree with @taobball on LoFo's projection this year. He could possibly hit another gear, very underrated ball player.

Edited by Mitchell_McDi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

 

Firstly, Forsythe made significant platoon advances in the last two years. (Here's an article for you on it: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/logan-forsythe-and-platoon-advances/) but in general:

Forsythe v. RHP:
Debut thru 2014:

.215/.283/.296

 

2015-2016:

.268/.346/.408

 

There's a reason he's hit .281 and .264 the last two seasons. He's an improved hitter. I'd ignore blocking him together has "career data." (And he has done .270 before in 2015, as just referenced). You could value the .255 BA over his career more or the .273 BA over the past two years more. I'm choosing the latter, but that's up to the individual on if you believe in the improvement. 

 

Secondly, I said "closer to" and not "exactly." Forsythe has stolen 15 bases over the past two years, one of them being slightly injury shorted, and has averaged 7.6 SBs per 600 PAs over the past two years and 8.9 SBs per 600 PAs over the course of his career. Considering that, as the lead-off hitter for the Dodgers, a full 150-155 G season would be closer to 700 PAs than 600, you can see why I say "close to 10." Not 10 mind you, that's not what I'm projecting, but I will have probably 7-9 written into my spreadsheet, which is substantially different from the 2 that Chase had. 

 

Another thing: 


Forsythe sacrificed some Contact for power in 2016. His contact rate dropped by about 4%, but his Hard% spiked to 36%. He struck out a bit more, but by increasing his damage on balls in play, I think he has even more upside as his batted ball peripherals are pretty damn good.

 

Forsythe had a .314 BABIP and .264 BA in 2016. Think his BABIP was fortunate? Think again. Chamberlain's xBABIP model actually shows that Forsythe was UNFORTUNATE with a .314 BABIP, as his xBABIP is .325. 

 

Why is the xBABIP so high? Just check it out:

Good LD% at 22.5%

Healthy Gb/FB to sustain average (42.0% GB to 35.2% FB)

Very low Soft% (11.7%) (4th Best in Baseball: Miguel Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, JD Martinez, Logan Forsythe) 
High Hard% (36.0%)

And even a great distribution of spreading the field: 39.1% Pull, 32.9% Center, 28.0% Oppo

 

Adjust his 2016 data using his xBABIP and increasing him from 127 GP to 155 GP and you get this line:

 

.270/.339/.450, 24 HRs, 7 SBs, and with that OBP and at Lead-Off, he'll be poor in RBI but potentially have more than 100 Runs and as a lead-off hitter has more opportunities to hit Homers or Steal bases than most hitters in baseball, so the volume should help. 

 

My projection is fairly close to that, with less power, but I do believe that the power upside is there with his altered approach and his incredible patience (8th Lowest Chase% In baseball).'

 

Yes sir, you could say that I'm a pretty damn big fan of Logan Forsythe. 

Cmon man, dont give me this math nonsense, it comes down to one simple fact, the Padres traded him away, so you know he is gonna blow up!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, taobball said:

 

That stat line is incredibly low for me. I'm much closer to .270/20/10

So do you have him in the top 10?  Altuve, Cano, turner, Dozier, Odor, Murphy, Kipnis, Kinsler, Gordon Carpenter - I have those as my top 10.  No particular order just yet. 

 

Then you have that next group of DJL, Pedroia, Schoop, Walker, Castro, Forsythe, Travis, Zobrist of 8 2B is my next tier, again, was thinking maybe middle to bottom of this pack as I would take DJL, Ped, Schoop, Travis and probably Castro for sure over him, maybe Zobrist too.  

 

And this ranking for me is based off my settings which is a 20-game position, there are some guys who maybe could be higher than him (maybe not) who are not on this list because they didnt get 20, but in some settings they might have.  I guess the original question was where do we see him as a value pick and I guess the answer depends on how deep your league is, if its a 12-team shallower lineup with only 2B and No MI, he might not even be a starter, but a 12-14 team league but in a 12 or more league that uses MI, to where you are using 36+ comined SS and 2B, he will come cheap as he probably ranks somewhere in the 30's of that list, and so considering that will be a late round pick or $1 fodder in an auction, then yes the value is pretty good considering his role.  He went 17th round of FSTA draft last week, thats a 13-teamer, he went ahead of Castro, Walker, Travis.  Thats pretty good value in the 17th of 13teamer.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forsythe is good. He can hit lefties and righties almost equally well (.330 wOBA and .337 wOBA, respectively, last year). That comes out to an every day player. As @taobball has stated, he's been very solid for two straight years now (.405 wOBA v LHP and .325 wOBA v RHP in 2015). I think it isn't prudent to use a player's career stats when it appears that a player has made significant strides in who they are as a player.

 

I'm a Dodgers fan and after rumination, I'm actually happy that we landed Forsythe instead of Dozier, considering the increased cost for Dozier and the likely regression. Dozier is a little better against lefties (which we need), but Forsythe is good too, and was elite in 2015.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-trade-for-brian-dozier-basically/ -- this article helped sell me, too.

 

Quote

Sometimes there are trade rumors that aren’t really true. We tend not to know about those until after the fact, but the false rumors tend to be the fleeting ones. Then there are the rumors that just don’t go away. That’s when you know there’s smoke. And there was all kinds of smoke billowing out of the rumors that linked the Dodgers to Brian Dozier.

It all added up, and there was no point in anyone issuing any denials. The Dodgers needed a second baseman, and Dozier is a good one. The Twins could stand to flip some quality assets, and Dozier is a good one. We got to know more than we usually do — the Dodgers put Jose De Leon on the table. That’s where the teams got stuck. The Dodgers liked what they’d be getting, and the Twins felt the same. They just couldn’t reach an agreement on a second prospect to go to Minnesota. The Twins held out, and the Dodgers wouldn’t budge.

And so, in the end, the Dodgers haven’t added Brian Dozier. Instead, they called up the Rays, and added basically Brian Dozier. The cost was De Leon, and nothing else.

 

Dave already talked about this a little last week. The Dodgers were very clearly in the market for help, and Logan Forsythe was present as a Dozier alternative. Forsythe is the lesser-known player, which is saying something, given that Dozier himself is a relatively little-known player. But while Dozier’s is the bigger name in baseball circles, it might not be possible to find two more similar second basemen. You can see why the Dodgers elected to go this route; Dozier just wasn’t worth the stress.

Forsythe bats right-handed, and according to our player page, he stands 6’1, 195. He was born in January of 1987. Dozier bats right-handed, and according to our player page, he stands 6’0, 190. Dozier is under contract for two more years, and $15 million. Forsythe is under contract for one more year, but there’s also a 2018 club option, and the combined value is $14.75 million. They’re effectively equal, given that it would take a lot for Forsythe’s option to be declined.

Dozier is something of a late bloomer, and he really took off in 2014. Forsythe is a late bloomer himself, and he took off in 2015. He’s been a regular player the last two years, playing mostly second base. Here is how the two players compare over these past two seasons.

 
A 2015 – 2016 Player Comparison
Player PA K-BB% wRC+ Hard-Soft% Contact% 2B UZR 2B DRS UZR WAR/600 DRS WAR/600
Brian Dozier 1395 12% 117 13% 79% 2 -2 4.0 3.8
Logan Forsythe 1182 12% 119 20% 81% -1 9 3.5 3.9

By strikeouts and walks, they’ve been the same. By overall batting value, they’ve been the same. UZR sees Dozier as, very slightly, the superior defender, but DRS disagrees with that, so we can compromise and assume they’re essentially equal there, too. I’ve calculated two WAR rate stats, one using UZR like usual, and the other plugging in DRS instead. You can hardly tell the numbers apart. Forsythe has the worse projection, but he’s being penalized for what he was in 2014 and earlier, and that’s just no longer too relevant.

Of course, Dozier just slugged a bunch of home runs. Forsythe, not so much. Dozier is thought of as more of a power source, while Forsythe runs the superior BABIPs. But for one thing, as the wRC+ up there shows, it doesn’t mean much in the end. And Dozier has played in the more homer-friendly environment. Both hitters have run higher-than-average launch angles, and if you can believe it, Forsythe has posted the better average exit velocities in each of the last two years. Dozier has the homers, but Forsythe has the contact quality.

If there’s one place where the players really diverge, it’s in where their batted balls go. Dozier has developed a reputation for trying to pull everything to left, and as much as that might feel exploitable, it’s clearly worked for him for this long. Forsythe used to be more of a pull guy, but this past year, he reached a new level in opposite-field hitting.

 
Logan Forsythe’s Improvement
Season Split PA ISO wRC+
2011 Opposite 26 0.077 -22
2012 Opposite 70 0.043 12
2013 Opposite 33 0.094 62
2014 Opposite 67 0.111 64
2015 Opposite 107 0.125 86
2016 Opposite 108 0.318 164

Forsythe just had 17 extra-base hits the other way, with eight homers. Before last year, he totaled 20 extra-base hits the other way, with two homers. He was one of just 21 players to have at least 100 batted balls to the pull side, up the middle, and to the opposite field, with hard-hit rates of at least 30% in every direction. Though Forsythe’s overall numbers didn’t surge forward, he showed signs of becoming a more complete hitter, which makes him easier to buy into.

Forsythe and Dozier just don’t look that different. Dozier has a slightly longer track record, and he provides maybe a little more on the bases. But you can see why the Dodgers settled here. If Forsythe is worse, he’s probably only a little bit worse, and that’s not worth adding another quality prospect. Giving up De Leon is already tough.

That’s another key point here. Even though I’ve spent all this space effectively calling Logan Forsythe underrated, Jose De Leon is his own kind of underrated. Actual observers have never loved him quite as much as statistical analysts, but the minor-league numbers are extraordinary. As a starter in the upper levels, De Leon has struck out literally a third of all the batters he’s faced. While he’s done that, he’s also run a single-digit rate of walks. The two best things a pitcher can do are throw strikes and miss bats. De Leon, to this point, has done that against quality competition. His major-league sample is just 17 innings.

Among those who scout the stat line, De Leon looks fantastic. His fastball comes in around 91 – 92, so it’s not easily dismissed, and he’s really known for his changeup. If there’s one thing left for him to do, it’s improve his breaking ball. That’s why he’s considered unfinished, but already just having one good secondary pitch gives him a leg up. And with that pitch being a changeup, De Leon is strong against opposite-handed bats.

Oh, but there’s that other thing, too — we’ve just talked about De Leon on the mound. He missed a stretch of time last season with arm soreness, and that’s one of those classic red flags. I already said the two best things a pitcher can do are throw strikes and miss bats, but all the talent in the world doesn’t mean anything if you have trouble making consistent turns. As much as every young pitcher is a health risk, one has to consider De Leon’s risk level to some degree elevated. I’d say that’s why the Dodgers were willing to trade De Leon in the first place. They have the depth to absorb this, but De Leon could lose a chunk of his value overnight.

For the Rays, it’s always the same. They’re a little worse off today than they were yesterday, but they added more surplus value. De Leon could bust, but he’s theirs for up to six years, and he seems like he’s already a big-league starter. This gives the Rays the option of moving another big-league starter, and on and on it goes. Every year, you can squint and see the Rays as fringe contenders. They’re right there again, with another intriguing pitching staff. Maybe things’ll go better than they did in 2016. Couldn’t really go worse.

As for the Dodgers, I wouldn’t say this was something they needed to do, but second base was the biggest hole. So it’s filled now, filled with another Dodgers player who’s better than people think, and the Dodgers as a whole are better than people think as a consequence. Multiple projection systems see the Dodgers as presently being the best team in baseball, and that’s important, since they might have the strongest second-place challenger. The Giants are good, but the Dodgers are better. The gap is widened, with the Dodgers having found an alternative to the player they wanted the most.

The offseason didn’t end up with Brian Dozier going to California. But in a way, it really did, at least in the way the Dodgers care about most. Your move, Minnesota.

 

For fantasy purposes, I don't quite think he'll get to 10 SB...but I can see a handful over the course of the season.

 

My projection: 95 / 21 / 70 / 7 / .273 / .345 / .450.

 

RotoWire News: Manager Dave Roberts said that he expects Forsythe to be his leadoff hitter for the 2017 season, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports. (1/25/2017)

 

I think (/want) Toles will lead off vs. RHP, but hey, maybe Forsythe leads off all year and gets 100+ runs...

 

Edited by fawkes_mulder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he is a good player, I just think the position is pretty deep.  I think he will probably be at like 140-150 combined RBI and Runs, but I could see it being 50 RBI and 100 runs scored from the leadoff spot.  The leadoff spot in the NL stinks.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good player, not great. Dodgers are just hoping he's a good stop-gap, someone to get them over the hump....something Kendrick couldn't do last season.

 

Definite upgrade at 2B.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really liked him last year and streamed him at times. I think he is very under rated this year. Who wouldnt want to own the leadoff man for that lineup?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Trifecta said:

I really liked him last year and streamed him at times. I think he is very under rated this year. Who wouldnt want to own the leadoff man for that lineup?

 

The question is will he be good enough to hold that lead off position all season?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

i thought he was the leadoff guy?

He'll likely hit 1-2 vs LHP.  5th vs RHP.  Good spot either way.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty brutal start to the season. 0-4 in each of the last 3 days. Looooooong season, I know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does Forsythe blow donkey balls?

 

Lots of "experts" said he was the shizzz.

 

Im going to wait. Lets say HOLD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The small sample profile is pretty ugly.  But it's only 40 at bats.  Major K rate increase.  If he cuts down the Ks the stats should even out.  If he keeps up a 25+% clip then probably won't be rosterable.  I'm not coming close to drawing conclusions.  Steady hold for me for now. Good lineup, prime spot.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Logan Forsythe left Saturday's game against the Diamondbacks with right hamstring tightness.

Enrique Hernandez replaced him at second base to begin the fifth inning. Forsythe was having a terrific night before his injury, going 3-for-3 with a double and a run scored. He's gone 10-for-23 over his last six games to raise his average from .158 all the way to .310. Until the D'Backs provide an update, consider him day-to-day.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now