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Colin Kaepernick 2017 Season Outlook

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What an interesting last year+ this guy has had.

 

What does the 2017 season have in store for him once/if he leaves the 49ers?

 

Colin Kaepernick can't opt out of his contract until March 2.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen, Kaepernick is still expected to do so when he's able, and the official opt-out period for Kap is March 2-7. The hirings of new GM John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan aren't expected to sway that decision. The Jets have been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Kaepernick, but there should be plenty of other options.
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I want no parts of him. Not good enough to be worth the distraction and headaches he causes.

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47 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

He is not good at football.

 

Hmmm... That seems to be a pretty big qualifier for playing in the NFL.  I think he's screwed.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

He is not good at football.

I'll second that. At least a quarter of the NFL teams are usually looking for a QB every offseason, but Crapernick is not the answer. His mechanics have gotten worse, he still can't read defenses, and his accuracy has always been iffy. He is still a project after being in the league 5 or 6+ years.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

I'll second that. At least a quarter of the NFL teams are usually looking for a QB every offseason, but Crapernick is not the answer. His mechanics have gotten worse, he still can't read defenses, and his accuracy has always been iffy. He is still a project after being in the league 5 or 6+ years.

To be fair, there's a picture of RGIII floating around where he has 5 WIDE open WR's and ends up either throwing it away or taking a sack.  A team (that probably shouldn't be qualified as an NFL team admittedly) rolled the dice on him last season.  Kaep might get another shot.

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25 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

To be fair, there's a picture of RGIII floating around where he has 5 WIDE open WR's and ends up either throwing it away or taking a sack.  A team (that probably shouldn't be qualified as an NFL team admittedly) rolled the dice on him last season.  Kaep might get another shot.

 

Neither should be starting, ha.

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

To be fair, there's a picture of RGIII floating around where he has 5 WIDE open WR's and ends up either throwing it away or taking a sack.  A team (that probably shouldn't be qualified as an NFL team admittedly) rolled the dice on him last season.  Kaep might get another shot.

Ha. There's a few of them. The one you're talking about (I think) he ended up throwing the ball away (I guess hitting wide open receivers is too easy). And there's another where he had four open reads and ended up scrambling and throwing a wonky off target sidearm throw that got picked and Cooley absolutely roasted him on it.

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

Neither should be starting, ha.

Yeah, but NFL teams give guys who had an brief explosion (flash is a little too short term IMO) of a season way too many chances. 

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What happened to kaep? Was it really harbaughs influence? Supporting cast? Too cocky? System? Diet?

Ill admit, early on i liked kaepernick. Anyone who watched his first year starting, he was a much better qb. Going through reads, running when he has too, looking off defenders, making touch passes, even tho he was always a bit erratic there was enough there too feel confident in the potential.

I know kellys offense was designed to split the field, but now you dont see any of that. First read not there, take off an run. Touch is barely there, you used to see flashes, now you get lucky if he doesnt wildly overthrow or underthrow his targets. Short or long. Misses wide open targets. Just a horrible regression.

I wonder if someone gives this project another shot, but its looking like kaeps days as anything close to a starter may be over.

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Haha!! You guys basically created this thread to bash Kaepernick huh? 

 

Arizona and Cleveland would be great landing spots for Kaep. No NFL player will succeed with Chip Kelly as their coach. Just ask Demarco Murray. All Kaep needs is a situation that he's able to make plays in a system that works to his strength. It's be great to see him in AZ running read option plays with DJ. I respect Hugh Jackson enough to believe he could gameplan like he thought he'd be able to with RG3. 

 

I like Houston as a darkhorse destination. They could sign Kaep to a one year deal. He'd easily beat out what's his name and has the arm to simply launch it to Nuk. 

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3 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

Haha!! You guys basically created this thread to bash Kaepernick huh? 

 

Arizona and Cleveland would be great landing spots for Kaep. No NFL player will succeed with Chip Kelly as their coach. Just ask Demarco Murray. All Kaep needs is a situation that he's able to make plays in a system that works to his strength. It's be great to see him in AZ running read option plays with DJ. I respect Hugh Jackson enough to believe he could gameplan like he thought he'd be able to with RG3. 

 

I like Houston as a darkhorse destination. They could sign Kaep to a one year deal. He'd easily beat out what's his name and has the arm to simply launch it to Nuk. 

The problem with that is his career was in a steep nosedive before Kelly ever got there.  I don't know what happened, but he hasn't shown any of the ability to be an NFL passer since Harbaugh left. His reads regressed, his accuracy regressed, his touch regressed.  As a whole, there's nothing to like anymore.

 

If he's cheap, I have no qualms signing him as a backup and hoping he can find that talent again.  But I'm not remotely planning on him as a starter if I want to keep my job.

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21 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

The problem with that is his career was in a steep nosedive before Kelly ever got there.  I don't know what happened, but he hasn't shown any of the ability to be an NFL passer since Harbaugh left. His reads regressed, his accuracy regressed, his touch regressed.  As a whole, there's nothing to like anymore.

 

If he's cheap, I have no qualms signing him as a backup and hoping he can find that talent again.  But I'm not remotely planning on him as a starter if I want to keep my job.

 

You just highlighted my point. Harbaugh is a good coach who knows how to put players in good positions to succeed. Matt Cassel is another prime example of a QB who was serviceable with a good coach (Belichick) then was awful thereafter. 

 

The 49ers didn't suck last year because of Kaepernick. They sucked because their coach wasn't and isn't NFL caliber. Kaep isn't going to be handed a job anywhere. He'll compete for the starting gig wherever he lands. But if a team brings him in, it's likely to start. Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds. 

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1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

You just highlighted my point. Harbaugh is a good coach who knows how to put players in good positions to succeed. Matt Cassel is another prime example of a QB who was serviceable with a good coach (Belichick) then was awful thereafter. 

 

The 49ers didn't suck last year because of Kaepernick. They sucked because their coach wasn't and isn't NFL caliber. Kaep isn't going to be handed a job anywhere. He'll compete for the starting gig wherever he lands. But if a team brings him in, it's likely to start. Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds. 

Didn't Cassel win a pro bowl with the Chiefs?  

 

Kaep certainly wasn't the entire problem in San Fran.  But he certainly didn't appear to be part of the solution, and appeared that way post-Harbaugh but pre-Kelly as well, so it's not like we're judging him on one year of suckitude.  Obviously there was some fuel their to get the burn they did their NFC Championship year.  Whether there's any left in the well is another question.

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2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

You just highlighted my point. Harbaugh is a good coach who knows how to put players in good positions to succeed. Matt Cassel is another prime example of a QB who was serviceable with a good coach (Belichick) then was awful thereafter. 

 

The 49ers didn't suck last year because of Kaepernick. They sucked because their coach wasn't and isn't NFL caliber. Kaep isn't going to be handed a job anywhere. He'll compete for the starting gig wherever he lands. But if a team brings him in, it's likely to start. Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds. 

 

Cassell made a pro bowl in KC....

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

Didn't Cassel win a pro bowl with the Chiefs?  

 

Kaep certainly wasn't the entire problem in San Fran.  But he certainly didn't appear to be part of the solution, and appeared that way post-Harbaugh but pre-Kelly as well, so it's not like we're judging him on one year of suckitude.  Obviously there was some fuel their to get the burn they did their NFC Championship year.  Whether there's any left in the well is another question.

 

Cassel had a really good 2010 with the Chiefs. And was so bad thereafter, KC replaced him with Alex Smith.

 

Look, I get that everyone in this thread hates Kaepernick because of his political beliefs. All of the insults are just that. Nothing football related. Kaep had a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio in 2016 and was the ONLY reason SF looked competent at times. Help me understand how that is "sucktitude?" Again nobody in this thread has even mentioned the cartoon character coach Chip Kelly; and Jim Tomsula was even worse.

 

You ask does Kaep have anything left in the well? 32 of 32 NFL coaches would take a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio, along with 500 yards rushing, if they needed a QB. Fantasy football players who ignore all this silly, ignorant Kaepernick bashing will land themselves a helluva lottery-ticket backup QB in 2017.

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1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Cassel had a really good 2010 with the Chiefs. And was so bad thereafter, KC replaced him with Alex Smith.

 

Look, I get that everyone in this thread hates Kaepernick because of his political beliefs. All of the insults are just that. Nothing football related. Kaep had a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio in 2016 and was the ONLY reason SF looked competent at times. Help me understand how that is "sucktitude?" Again nobody in this thread has even mentioned the cartoon character coach Chip Kelly; and Jim Tomsula was even worse.

 

You ask does Kaep have anything left in the well? 32 of 32 NFL coaches would take a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio, along with 500 yards rushing, if they needed a QB. Fantasy football players who ignore all this silly, ignorant Kaepernick bashing will land themselves a helluva lottery-ticket backup QB in 2017.

It's the prevalence of this type of stuff.  http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/look-kaepernick-has-no-interest-in-throwing-to-a-wide-open-receiver/

http://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2016/10/16/breaking-down-colin-kaepernicks-2016-debut-in-ugly-49ers-loss/

Or the god awful Chicago game.  

If you put any stock in PFF (I do.  They watch all the tape and try to be as objective as possible), there were only 6 starting QB's graded worse than him this season: Eli, Bortles, Siemian, Goff, Fitz, and the Houston Giraffe.

 

I also can't remember SF looking competent at any point this season.  4 to 1 TD/INT is good.  6.77 YPA is not.  Neither is 59% accuracy. Or a 20ish TD season (extrapolated to full 16 games). Is he a little better than I've been giving him credit for?  Maybe.  Sometimes it's hard to look past the team.  But the people that have a system to do specifically that still think he's a bottom 20% starter based purely on what he does.

 

*Mod Hat*

Colin Kaepernick's political beliefs have no relevance to his ability to play football. Discussing politics or race is expressly forbidden in the Code of Conduct. No matter how strongly you feel about it, this forum is not the place to have a discussion of those issues.  Consider this your one and only warning.

*Mod Hat Off*

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3 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

It's the prevalence of this type of stuff.  http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/look-kaepernick-has-no-interest-in-throwing-to-a-wide-open-receiver/

http://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2016/10/16/breaking-down-colin-kaepernicks-2016-debut-in-ugly-49ers-loss/

Or the god awful Chicago game.  

If you put any stock in PFF (I do.  They watch all the tape and try to be as objective as possible), there were only 6 starting QB's graded worse than him this season: Eli, Bortles, Siemian, Goff, Fitz, and the Houston Giraffe.

 

I also can't remember SF looking competent at any point this season.  4 to 1 TD/INT is good.  6.77 YPA is not.  Neither is 59% accuracy. Or a 20ish TD season (extrapolated to full 16 games). Is he a little better than I've been giving him credit for?  Maybe.  Sometimes it's hard to look past the team.  But the people that have a system to do specifically that still think he's a bottom 20% starter based purely on what he does.

 

*Mod Hat*

Colin Kaepernick's political beliefs have no relevance to his ability to play football. Discussing politics or race is expressly forbidden in the Code of Conduct. No matter how strongly you feel about it, this forum is not the place to have a discussion of those issues.  Consider this your one and only warning.

*Mod Hat Off*

 

He's not better than you're giving him credit for.  He's as bad as PFF said.  

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11 hours ago, jbshaw said:

It's the prevalence of this type of stuff.  http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/look-kaepernick-has-no-interest-in-throwing-to-a-wide-open-receiver/

http://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2016/10/16/breaking-down-colin-kaepernicks-2016-debut-in-ugly-49ers-loss/

Or the god awful Chicago game.  

If you put any stock in PFF (I do.  They watch all the tape and try to be as objective as possible), there were only 6 starting QB's graded worse than him this season: Eli, Bortles, Siemian, Goff, Fitz, and the Houston Giraffe.

 

I also can't remember SF looking competent at any point this season.  4 to 1 TD/INT is good.  6.77 YPA is not.  Neither is 59% accuracy. Or a 20ish TD season (extrapolated to full 16 games). Is he a little better than I've been giving him credit for?  Maybe.  Sometimes it's hard to look past the team.  But the people that have a system to do specifically that still think he's a bottom 20% starter based purely on what he does.

 

*Mod Hat*

Colin Kaepernick's political beliefs have no relevance to his ability to play football. Discussing politics or race is expressly forbidden in the Code of Conduct. No matter how strongly you feel about it, this forum is not the place to have a discussion of those issues.  Consider this your one and only warning.

*Mod Hat Off*

 

Opinion pieces on various websites don't interest me in evaluating a QBs or any other players for fantasy purposes.

 

Here are the facts:

-only 6 QBs have a better TD/INT ratio in 2016. Ignore it all you want. But QBs who turn the ball over are a detriment to the team. Kaep did not do that

-Kaepernick ranked 11th in points per game for QBs in fantasy football 2016; good for 11th place and low-end QB1 status.

-You say 6.77 YPA is bad. When your top receiver is Torrey Smith and your coach is Chip Kelly (which again, you refuse to even mention/acknowledge this now fired and unemployable as an NFL head coach forever guy), there isn't much you can do. What is Eli Manning's excuse for his 6.73 YPA with one of the best WRs in the game? What is Flacco's excuse for his 6.42 YPA and a solid WR core of SSS and Wallace? Again its really hard to take any of your analysis seriously when you won't even mention the toy coach Kaepernick had in 2016.

-Kaep has a better career completion % than Luck and Manning; and has been far more consistent than both. Further that's not his game, as it is supposed to be for Luck and Manning. Kaep is a playmaking QB who can pick up yards on the ground as well and use his strong arm to utilize the entire field

-20ish TD extrapolated; along with 600 rushing yards and 3-4 more TDs is pretty good for fantasy purposes. He also has ZERO playmakers on the outside or in the slot. Are you saying his WRs were even average last season?

 

 

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
Let's stay on point. If you feel something should be removed, then please use the report function.
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If he's more than a backup there's one team that just doesn't know what they're doing.

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2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Opinion pieces on various websites don't interest me in evaluating a QBs or any other players for fantasy purposes.

Since the discussion was more about where he was going as a real football player, my comments were about value as a real QB.  As a fantasy QB, he is much more valuable than his real QB ability (assuming no positive regression back towards 2013) as long as he's starting and running around. I wouldn't want to rely on him as my only QB option, but if I paired him with a guy available late that I was pretty sure would do well (like Cousins last year), I'd be okay with him on my team.

2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Here are the facts:

-only 6 QBs have a better TD/INT ratio in 2016. Ignore it all you want. But QBs who turn the ball over are a detriment to the team. Kaep did not do that

TD/INT ratio is nice, particularly when it's paired with other stats.  If we look at another TD/INT ratio guy who receives almost universal praise (Dak), we see that TD/INT isn't all there is.  Dak also had the 4th highest completion percentage (Kaep 26th), 4th highest YPA (Kaep 26th), 3rd highest passer rating (Kaep 17th). He also demonstrated he could read a football field, got better every game, got even better in the 4th quarter of games (I think he had a 3 game stretch where he only missed 2 passes in the 4th quarter), and maximized the talent around him.  Kaep was obviously in a much worse situation when it comes to the team around him, but watching him live he showed none of the touch or accuracy he did in 2013, made horrible reads, didn't throw the ball to an uncovered receiver, didn't get better in crunch time, and didn't get better as the year went on.  I could support Kaep if he was elevating his team and they were just losing because the team sucked. But Kaep did nothing to distinguish himself from the pile of manure that was the 49ers.  

2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

-Kaepernick ranked 11th in points per game for QBs in fantasy football 2016; good for 11th place and low-end QB1 status.

Fantasy scoring wasn't bad.  The possibility of an implosion like the Chicago game is bad, but I'm not debating he can be a usable fantasy asset.  I think the TD/INT ratio is fluky (I'd expect it to regress to around 50% of this year even if he returns to 2013 form), but fantasy wise he's going to be cheap as dirt and likely right around the QB1/QB2 cutoff for ppg. 

2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

-You say 6.77 YPA is bad. When your top receiver is Torrey Smith and your coach is Chip Kelly (which again, you refuse to even mention/acknowledge this now fired and unemployable as an NFL head coach forever guy), there isn't much you can do. What is Eli Manning's excuse for his 6.73 YPA with one of the best WRs in the game? What is Flacco's excuse for his 6.42 YPA and a solid WR core of SSS and Wallace? Again its really hard to take any of your analysis seriously when you won't even mention the toy coach Kaepernick had in 2016.

Case Keenum with the LA receivers managed a 6.84 YPA. I don't give Kaep the benefit of the doubt for putting up stats like that when another guy in every bit as bad of an offensive situation is universally decried as awful. I'd also give Kaep more credit (less knocks?) if he hadn't regressed every year after the Super Bowl run in 2013, which included coaches other than Chip. It's hard to take your complaints about Chip being the coach not being factored in seriously without you acknowledging he was bad before Chip ever got there.

2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

-Kaep has a better career completion % than Luck and Manning; and has been far more consistent than both. Further that's not his game, as it is supposed to be for Luck and Manning. Kaep is a playmaking QB who can pick up yards on the ground as well and use his strong arm to utilize the entire field

You're right, on paper, Luck and Kaep have almost identical efficiency stats.  Eye test though (from guys who watch every play for every player on tape with an objective grading scale), Luck wins bigtime. Eli is a bad NFL football player that I've already said was graded out lower than Kaep. 

Quote

For years, PFF analysts stated that Luck was not playing at a level among the top-five quarterbacks in the league, as many had suggested. In 2016, though, he actually is. Coming off a disastrous 2015 that saw him rank near the bottom in every major statistical category, Luck has revamped his game from a high risk/reward passer to one much more willing to take what the defense gives. His 10 interceptions are not indicative of his new style, as we’ve charged him with only 12 turnover-worthy plays, so those bad passes are being converted into picks at a much higher ratio than most quarterbacks. Luck owns the fifth-lowest percentage of turnover-worthy throws this season after ranking in the middle of the pack or near the bottom of the league in previous years. Unfortunately for Luck, the Colts’ roster has limited them this season, and even in his best year, they may not get a chance to make a playoff run. He’s been under pressure on a league-high 43.8 percent of dropbacks, but he’s managed a passer rating of 76.3 on those plays, good for 10th in the league.

Quote

Kaepernick has performed at a slightly better level than last year, still not instilling confidence that he’s back on track to be a long-term starter in the league. He ranks 33rd in adjusted completion percentage at 68.1 percent and his 92.6 passer rating from a clean pocket ranks 29th in the league.

 

2 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

-20ish TD extrapolated; along with 600 rushing yards and 3-4 more TDs is pretty good for fantasy purposes. He also has ZERO playmakers on the outside or in the slot. Are you saying his WRs were even average last season?

 

 

 

Extrapolated out, he's a decent fantasy QB, and I'll admit that.  But as a real life QB (which is all that matters to whether a team should sign him as their starter or not), he's not good. His (in)ability as a real life QB to get a starting job matters a whole lot more to his fantasy outlook right now than what his fantasy outlook would be IF someone does start him.

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On 2/4/2017 at 0:16 PM, jbshaw said:

Case Keenum with the LA receivers managed a 6.84 YPA. I don't give Kaep the benefit of the doubt for putting up stats like that when another guy in every bit as bad of an offensive situation is universally decried as awful. I'd also give Kaep more credit (less knocks?) if he hadn't regressed every year after the Super Bowl run in 2013, which included coaches other than Chip. It's hard to take your complaints about Chip being the coach not being factored in seriously without you acknowledging he was bad before Chip ever got there.

 

Case Keenum passed for 9 TD and 11 INT. Apples and oranges comparison. Not presenting complaints. Just facts. In Harbaugh's last season in SF (2014), Kaep had career highs in completion % (as a full-time starter), passing yards, and rushing yards. This is the season you define as "regression."

 

He was injured for much of 2015 and his coach was some guy named Tomsula, who will never be an NFL head coach again. In 2016, his coach was Chip Kelly, who will also never be an NFL head coach again; and Kaep still managed to ranked 7th in the league in TD/INT ratio with absolutely no playmakers at WR. Your assertions that Kaepernick was bad before Kelly (and Tomsula) got there are simply false. But whatever adds to the Kaepernick negative narrative...

Edited by dabeesta17
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37 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Case Keenum passed for 9 TD and 11 INT. Apples and oranges comparison. Not presenting complaints. Just facts. In Harbaugh's last season in SF (2014), Kaep had career highs in completion % (as a full-time starter), passing yards, and rushing yards. This is the season you define as "regression."

 

He was injured for much of 2015 and his coach was some guy named Tomsula, who will never be an NFL head coach again. In 2016, his coach was Chip Kelly, who will also never be an NFL head coach again; and Kaep still managed to ranked 7th in the league in TD/INT ratio with absolutely no playmakers at WR. Your assertions that Kaepernick was bad before Kelly (and Tomsula) got there are simply false. But whatever adds to the Kaepernick negative narrative...

Pulling up his stat logs, he's really good in 2012.  He improves in 2013 despite his team not making it quite as far. In 2014, he is better accuracy wise and total volume wise.  However, he BEGINS his regression, losing over half a yard per attempt and starting the drop of his TD/INT ratio, although he's still more than adequate in these departments.  I didn't recall him being injured and still starting in 2015 (may be my mistake), but he was unquestionably worse watching him on the field in terms of accuracy and reads, and is the first season I would say he was truly bad.  In 2016 he performed like a QB that shouldn't be a starter, especially when it comes to traits beyond the stat sheet. 

 

So, he does have a few potentially saving graces for his future.  He did have 2 inept coaches in his 2 truly bad years, and his regression under Harbaugh's last season was nowhere near catastrophic, so the influence of a good coach could be a possibility. There also is an injury that we know had a long term healing timeline (although I suspect a large part of this is contract positioning.  His supporting cast has also gotten much worse every year, although he has regressed in areas that aren't affected by supporting casts during that time period as well. 

 

If I'm ranking Kaep among all the starters among the NFL for a single season, I highly doubt he makes my top 25 (going through the divisions, Bortles, Osweiler, and Cleveland Starter - X are the only guys I am 100% confident putting behind him.  There's a few others that are in that next tier with him, but I think he firmly falls in the level of starters that teams need to be looking at replacing.  

 

If I'm a GM, I'm not looking at a guy like that for a starter role, which means he is useless to me for fantasy.  Now, IF he has a starting job next season after the free agency dust clears, he is going to be a better fantasy asset than his RL QB ranking.  If he starts all 16 games, as long as the team is semi-competent, I'd think he'd finish at least QB 18.  He isn't Dak, but he takes care of the football pretty well (avoids those killer negative points), and his rushing potential is a big upside. 

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On 2/3/2017 at 9:32 PM, dabeesta17 said:

Haha!! You guys basically created this thread to bash Kaepernick huh? 

That was not the intention, I promise lol

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