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Tom Brady 2017 Season outlook

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

What motivates brady this year? Last season he had plenty of motivation but a yr older and a new title what motivates the guy to go through that championship grind and perform at peak level again?

If he doesn't win 12+ games his wife will leave him and go find someone more successful. Like Gregg Popovich or whatever. 

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

What motivates brady this year? Last season he had plenty of motivation but a yr older and a new title what motivates the guy to go through that championship grind and perform at peak level again?

An Owner & Coach that try like hell to give him the best situation to keep winning...every year? (and succeed)

Edited by psygolf

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Fair Market Value is a tricky concept to pin down given so many variables in the way we draft, combined with using year end results, versus draft day investments.

 

For example.. we're comparing Brady's value to 'QB6' at years end.  Then calling 'QB6' the replacement we are comparing Brady against.  But do we all remember where Brady was drafted last year?  QB6.  Sure this was due to his suspension, I get that.  So we compare him to the year end QB6, Dak Prescott... But Prescott is currently listed as the 10th QB off the board.  Cam Newton is currently QB6 on draft day.

 

If we're trying to separate the 'top 5' from 'replacement' I get that, but... Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins both finished top 5 last year, and Brady if we use PPG.  All 3 of these guys were 'replacement' QBs in the draft last year, but are now the class we're measuring replacement against?  And you can see how the lines begin to blur.

 

Unfortunately, I don't have a solution, but just wanted to at least make it known, something to consider when trying to accurately define Fair Market Value.

Using Tom Brady and his PPG average/advantage, to justify drafting a QB in the 2nd round, when Brady was taken in the 7th... seems counter intuitive to me.

 

What I actually came here to post though, was something people might over look.

A few mentioned how incredible or efficient Brady was last year.  A few mentioned the addition of Gronk and Cooks.

 

In Yahoo Default scoring (using FFToday) Brady averaged 4 more points per game with Gronk (5 games) than he did without Gronk (6 games) in the fantasy season.

Brady.png

 

3 of Brady's top 4 games, came with Gronk on the field.

His completion percentage was 11% higher with Gronk, completing the same amount of passes, but requiring 5 less attempts.  He averaged 55 more yards per game with Gronk, and his TD/INT was about the same.

 

For what it's worth, Brady's games with Gronk Extrapolate to: 

531 attempts, 387 completions, 5,232 yards, 38 TDs, 375 Fantasy Points.  #2 behind only Rodgers.

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You can throw "fair market" and "replacement" value out the window when it comes to Brady or Brees because of their consistency...put the slide rulers down, draft these guys when presented the opportunity and be happy that there is little chance the decision will drag your ff team down.

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43 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

For example.. we're comparing Brady's value to 'QB6' at years end.  Then calling 'QB6' the replacement we are comparing Brady against.  But do we all remember where Brady was drafted last year?  QB6.  Sure this was due to his suspension, I get that.  So we compare him to the year end QB6, Dak Prescott... But Prescott is currently listed as the 10th QB off the board.  Cam Newton is currently QB6 on draft day

 

Honestly, I just chose last year's QB6 because I know people will chime in and say "I can stream QBs and beat out QB12 production".  "Value over replacement" is typically defined as how many points you score over a "replacement level" player.  But how you define that "replacement level" player is extremely subjective.  I was trying to give "wait on QB" people the benefit of the doubt by picking an above average QB and showing how Brady *still* gives a big leg up over that player.

 

Then, of course, where players are DRAFTED is another factor, and it just gets messy.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You can throw "fair market" and "replacement" value out the window when it comes to Brady or Brees because of their consistency...put the slide rulers down, draft these guys when presented the opportunity and be happy that there is little chance the decision will drag your ff team down.

 

 

Brady-Brees- Cpt rodgers are exceptions to the rule, basically outliers, it comes down to where the other QB's rank against each other. Every year there is someone who will take the gamble on rivers-stafford-newton-Eli-MRyan  as the one that will  perform with the week to week consistency of those 3, Last yr i reached for Big Ben and basically burned a 6th pickforhim tosit on my bench and severely underperdorm

 

Edited by dashoe

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15 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You can throw "fair market" and "replacement" value out the window when it comes to Brady or Brees because of their consistency...put the slide rulers down, draft these guys when presented the opportunity and be happy that there is little chance the decision will drag your ff team down.

My first season ever playing fantasy football, I paid to draft Brady.  He was QB14 among QBs with at least 10 starts in PPG (to get rid of McCown and Bradford).  

 

The next year?  QB8, sandwiched between Ryan and Tannehill.

 

Post deflategate, he's killed it as QB2 and tied QB2/3.  But half the years I've been playing fantasy football, he hasn't been all that remarkable.  The other half he's killed it.  I think there's a legitimate question on if the last 2 years are what you expect going forward, especially considering he'll have finished flirting and married the big 40 by the time the season starts.  

 

It's certainly possible he goes ham and destroys the league with new weapons on his way to Super Bowl win 7 (that's right, he's going to somehow win 2 this year).  There's also a possibility where he's content to ride less than ideal statistical production to a Super Bowl like in the 2014/15 season.  I'm not paying premium for that. 

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Well this is the ultimate, of ultimate... Tests to see if the madden curse is real or not. If the goat has a bad season or goes down then it's true, it's damn. 

That video was awesome lol 

Edited by Savatage79

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45 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Well this is the ultimate, of ultimate... Tests to see if the madden curse is real or not. If the goat has a bad season or goes down then it's true, it's damn. 

That video was awesome lol 

Calvin set the record for receiving yards the year he was on the cover. Many players have had goid years while being the Madden cover boy.

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8 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Calvin set the record for receiving yards the year he was on the cover. Many players have had goid years while being the Madden cover boy.

Yea lol I'm just messing but still as much as I love Megatron we're talking goat, sometimes the madden curse took a hiatus 

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16 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Calvin set the record for receiving yards the year he was on the cover.

 

And scored only 5 TDs because he was tackled at the one yard line 6 different times that year...

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16 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Calvin set the record for receiving yards the year he was on the cover. Many players have had goid years while being the Madden cover boy.

Many?

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I'm not going to temp Father Time + the Madden cover...at an inflated price.

 

Draft away, he's all yours.

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  1. I seriously can't be the only one that is eagerly anticipating Shady Brady having a miserable year performance wise?
  2. Also hoping that Giselle cuts his allowance and tells him to stop playing his little boy football games and focus on being her full time Ken Doll.
Edited by dashoe

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:
  1. I seriously can't be the only one that is eagerly anticipating Shady Brady having a miserable year performance wise?
  2. Also hoping that Giselle cuts his allowance and tells him to stop playing his little boy football games and focus on being her full time Ken Doll.

 

Haters gonna hate. 

 

:D

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3 minutes ago, Shake said:

 

Haters gonna hate. 

 

:D

 

Yeah. And look at how pudgy Gis is getting. Really porked out. Tom's career and home life are in shambles.

 

gis.jpg

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2 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Yeah. And look at how pudgy Gis is getting. Really porked out. Tom's career and home life are in shambles.

 

 

 

Tom is extending his career by eating all of Gisele's food. He is such a selfish guy. Look at what it's done to his wife:

 

_500_600_80_tLzLuu.jpg

 

 

I wanna buy her a cheese-burger.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

 

what is it of? unfort twitter blocked at new work ...travesty to be honest 

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