swaggyp

Tom Brady 2017 Season outlook

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Yea healthy Gronk for the first half of the season ..and then gets injured only to watch the pats grab SB win #6 from the sidelines. I still like Brady as 1st QB off the board!

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Brady is likely DND for me next year.  The super bowl win, no lingering suspension, and Gronk being back probably drive the price up more than I'm willing to accept for a 40 year old QB.  Give me Luck in the mid rounds all day long as opposed to Brady at "first QB off the board" price (or anywhere close to it).

 

I'm sure he'll be fantastic as ever.  But I doubt from a raw statistics standpoint that he's appreciably different from QB10 to invest that much for him.

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40 years old next year.  His age will eventually catch up to him but it is hard to bet against the GOAT.

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It's sort of like I expected with AP. Obviously he is great but the cliff has to be somewhere. I rather not find out with him as my QB.

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cliff not falling next yr. only thing to watch out for is check out the playoff sched. as this year was any indication, week 16 proved to be a brutal matchup against broncos. other than that nothing going to hold back the GOAT!

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A few QBs will be over-drafted this season...might be a good year to look in Cam's direction again.

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On 2/6/2017 at 3:39 PM, swaggyp said:

The Goat should be top 3 QB next season. Healthy gronk, sky is the limit! :) 

(Unfortunately...) I agree. I'd expect them to sign another nice WR (Amendola, Edelman, White, Mitchell, etc. are already enough, lol) and if Brady stays healthy\sharp it'll be another good season for the Pats.

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A bit surprising to not see a thread yet, guess we've all come to know what to expect from Tommy.

 

3,554 passing yards, 28:2 TD:INT ratio, 112.2 passer rating in 12 games.

 

What do you guys expect this year? More dominance, or some regression? Can't forget the addition of Brandin Cooks.

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More dominance and another run at the Superbowl.

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On 2/7/2017 at 3:05 AM, jbshaw said:

But I doubt from a raw statistics standpoint that he's appreciably different from QB10 to invest that much for him.

 

Brady:

2015: 25.4 points per game

2016: 24.7 points per game

 

Luck:

2015: 24.8 points per game

2016: 25.5 points per game

 

Good call on waiting for Luck.

 

But from QB1 to QB10?  Not so fast, my friend.  (I'll compare to QB6 because I can copy/paste this from elsewhere)

 

In 2016, QB1 (Rodgers) to QB6 (Prescott) was separated by 94 points.  This is 5.9 points per week.  (Also note that QB6 to QB18 is only separated by 30 points -- "there's a lot of guys you can draft late who will be strong", but strong relative to what?)  Compare that to TY Hilton, who will be a 2nd round WR this year, and who finished with 176 points last year.  This is 11 points per game.  This is only 5.3 points per game better than DeVante Parker, who you could wait and take around the same time as Prescott, I'm guessing.

 

You talk about him not being worth the investment.  But from a raw statistics standpoint, a 4500/40 or 4800/38 type QB is significantly different from QB6-14 -- even moreso than a 2nd round WR is different from late round JAGs.

 

This is all 4 pts per pass TD, and standard scoring.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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31 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Brady:

2015: 25.4 points per game

2016: 24.7 points per game

 

Luck:

2015: 24.8 points per game

2016: 25.5 points per game

 

Good call on waiting for Luck.

 

But from QB1 to QB10?  Not so fast, my friend.  (I'll compare to QB6 because I can copy/paste this from elsewhere)

 

In 2016, QB1 (Rodgers) to QB6 (Prescott) was separated by 94 points.  This is 5.9 points per week.  (Also note that QB6 to QB18 is only separated by 30 points -- "there's a lot of guys you can draft late who will be strong", but strong relative to what?)  Compare that to TY Hilton, who will be a 2nd round WR this year, and who finished with 176 points last year.  This is 11 points per game.  This is only 5.3 points per game better than DeVante Parker, who you could wait and take around the same time as Prescott, I'm guessing.

 

You talk about him not being worth the investment.  But from a raw statistics standpoint, a 4500/40 or 4800/38 type QB is significantly different from QB6-14 -- even moreso than a 2nd round WR is different from late round JAGs.

 

This is all 4 pts per pass TD, and standard scoring.

So are the numbers even wider in a 6 pts per pass TD format?   

I know it varies from league to league but Rodgers will be gone no later than beginning of 2nd round.  Brady probably won't last longer than 3rd round.   

Based on your analysis, when is it fair value to take those guys? 

 

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40 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

So are the numbers even wider in a 6 pts per pass TD format? 

 

Yup ☺️

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

But from QB1 to QB10?  Not so fast, my friend.  (I'll compare to QB6 because I can copy/paste this from elsewhere)

 

In 2016, QB1 (Rodgers) to QB6 (Prescott) was separated by 94 points.  This is 5.9 points per week.  (Also note that QB6 to QB18 is only separated by 30 points -- "there's a lot of guys you can draft late who will be strong", but strong relative to what?)  Compare that to TY Hilton, who will be a 2nd round WR this year, and who finished with 176 points last year.  This is 11 points per game.  This is only 5.3 points per game better than DeVante Parker, who you could wait and take around the same time as Prescott, I'm guessing.

 

You talk about him not being worth the investment.  But from a raw statistics standpoint, a 4500/40 or 4800/38 type QB is significantly different from QB6-14 -- even moreso than a 2nd round WR is different from late round JAGs.

 

This is all 4 pts per pass TD, and standard scoring.

Fantasypros has him at a full 4 points less per game for 2015 and a full 3 less for 2016, so I think we have different numbers (you'd expect that to be somewhat reflected in other QBs point scores as well). According to fantasypros, you're looking at just under a 4 point advantage in Brady over QB10 in 2016, and that SIGNIFICANTLY decreases the last several years before that.  

 

I think Brady will be good, but I don't think he'll be first/second round good.  I don't even expect QB1 or QB2.  Last year was INSANE with how efficient he was.  I think interceptions almost have to regress. Given that I think he's going to go in the first 2 rounds in most drafts (because people aren't always logical with name value), I don't think he provides return.  Heck, he was a first round pick in my draft last year when he was going to be missing his first 4 games.  No one has bigger name value than Brady

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19 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

Fantasypros has him at a full 4 points less per game for 2015 and a full 3 less for 2016, so I think we have different numbers (you'd expect that to be somewhat reflected in other QBs point scores as well)

 

Good point.  I used FFToday.com in my post, and actually the numbers are quite different from what I have in my own spreadsheet.  When I apply these scoring settings -- 4pt/patd, -2/fumble, -2/int, -1/sack -- Brady actually outscores Luck 20.1 to 17.3 points per game in 2016.  This is 2.8 points per week over replacement, which is 45 points over a full season, which is about the difference between Demarco Murray (242) and Mark Ingram (196) last season.  Maybe it's not smart to wait for Luck after all. 

 

24 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

I don't even expect QB1 or QB2.  Last year was INSANE with how efficient he was.  I think interceptions almost have to regress

 

He was just as efficient the year prior.

2015: 4,770-yd/36-td/7-int in 16 games.  

2016: 3,554-yd/28-td/2-int in 12 games ... on pace for 4,738-yd/37.3-td/2.667-int.

 

Interceptions should regress, sure.  He still shouldn't throw more than 10.

 

He gave you 4,700/37 pace last year, without Gronk or Cooks, and Blount set a record for rushing TDs.  Even if interceptions regress to 10, I'm going to need strong evidence as to why he won't hit 4,800/40 this year.  He's been on another level for the last two years, and now the team around him is getting better.

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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

Based on your analysis, when is it fair value to take those guys?

 

"Fair market value" is a fairly loaded term.  Completely depends on how you expect the market (i.e. every other player) to perform, and also how you expect Brady to perform.

 

Here's my line of thinking:

 

1) He's had two years of consistent, elite performance.

2015: 4,770-yd/36-td/7-int in 16 games.  38 sacks and 2 fumbles lost.

2016: Pace for 4,738-yd/37.3-td/2.667-int. 15 sacks and 0 fumbles lost.

 

2) Gronk won't be less of a factor than he was last year.  And he's adding Cooks.  And he's losing Blount's 18 rush TDs

 

3) Assume 4 points per pass TD, -2 per int, -2 per fumble, -1 per sack.

 

4) Because of 1) and 2), I'm projecting 4,800 yards, 40 TDs, 5 ints, 20 sacks, and 1 fumble lost.  Add 50 rush yards and 1 rush TD.  This is 331 total points, or 20.7 points per game.

 

5) Take Dak Prescott 2016 as a hypothetical "replacement value" QB (no good reason for this, but he finished QB6 per FantasyPros.com).  3,667 yards, 24 pass TD (plus 6 rush), 4 int, 25 sacks, 4 fumbles lost.  This is 262 points in the same scoring settings mentioned above, 16.4 points per game.

 

6) Summary to this point: my projection for Brady would put him 4.3 points per game better than last year's QB6.  This is as close as I can get to a realistic definition of 'replacement value'.  Yes, it's dependent upon my projections, my decision to use last year's QB6, and the mentioned scoring settings.

 

7) Compare this replacement value to others from last year, per FantasyPros.com:

-- RB24 = 'RB replacement value' = Terrance West = 8.6 points per game.  4.3 points above this is 12.9.  Ingram was 12.3, Ajayi was 12.6, Hyde was 12.7.  All three are probably going around late 2nd round.

-- WR24 = 'WR replacement value' = Mike Wallace = 8.2 points per game.  4.3 points above this is 12.5.  Only 3 WRs exceeded this last year: Evans, Nelson, Brown.  Beckham was 12.2.  Hilton, who looks like a late 2nd round guy in 2017, was 11.4.  Julio was 12.6.

 

8) So, if you agree that Brady should give you something like 4,800/40, then early 2nd round is fair value for Brady (Bell, DJ, Zeke, McCoy, Murray, Freeman, Gordon, Howard, Brown, Evans, AJ, Jordy are the only ones clear cut above, by the numbers -- I'm not saying I'd take Brady above Beckham, btw).  Again, standard scoring, 4 pt per pass TD; and again, assuming 2016 translates roughly over to 2017.

 

*note 2016 was a down year for WRs.  Mid 2nd round might be more fair if WRs return to form.

 

9) If you set all this to 6 points per pass TD, then Brady gives you 25.2 points per game at my projection (Dak: 19.2).  Now you're at 6.5 points above replacement, which is the difference between 2016 Demarco Murray and 2016 Terrance West.

 

We could talk all day about if 4,800/40 is a fair projection.  We could disagree as to whether 2016 RB24 and WR24 are fair representations of 2017 replacement value.  But I don't think either assumption is unreasonable, and if for the sake of argument you grant me those assumptions, then the numbers, after that, don't lie.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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15 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

9) If you set all this to 6 points per pass TD, then Brady gives you 25.2 25.7 points per game at my projection (Dak: 19.2).  Now you're at 6.5 points above replacement

 

Correction

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What motivates brady this year? Last season he had plenty of motivation but a yr older and a new title what motivates the guy to go through that championship grind and perform at peak level again?

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19 minutes ago, dashoe said:

What motivates brady this year? Last season he had plenty of motivation but a yr older and a new title what motivates the guy to go through that championship grind and perform at peak level again?

 

Related image

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I think think he loses the fire plus giselle is tiring of subsidizing this football hobby of his

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Lol... just the right amount of sarcasm for us to have to stop and think pretty closely how sarcastic you actually are.  Well done.

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4 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Lol... just the right amount of sarcasm for us to have to stop and think pretty closely how sarcastic you actually are.  Well done.

 

Ok, I'm today's sucker...

Been reading a few too many actually intended posts like that.

Happy that was sarcasm... I can stop banging my head on my desk.

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1 hour ago, Winky said:

 

Ok, I'm today's sucker...

Been reading a few too many actually intended posts like that.

Happy that was sarcasm... I can stop banging my head on my desk.

 

 

i have a long history in this forum with being a Brady denier. . .I respect his game but will take a shot at him on everything else

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