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Ender Inciarte 2017 Outlook

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leadoff hitter for the Braves.

 

1st half- .227/.294/.306/.599/ (.255 BABIP)

2nd half- .341/.396/.440/.836/ (.387 BABIP)

 

I don't think he is as bad as he was in the 1st half, and not as good as he was in the 2nd half.

 

this from CBS..

Quote

Ender Inciarte's elite glove was ahead of his bat once again in 2016, but he still contributed enough to be useful in most formats. He hit the disabled list a week into the season with a groin injury and was very slow to return to form when he got healthy. He limped into the break with a .227/.294/.306 line but still managed eight steals on 11 attempts. After the break, he looked much more like the guy we saw for Arizona in 2015, as he hit .341/.396/.440 the rest of the way while stealing another eight bases on 12 attempts. He also more than doubled the 26 runs scored before the break with 59 runs in the second half. The Braves were sold on his all-around skill set and inked him to a five-year, $30.5 million extension during the offseason. He should be the leadoff hitter for the retooled Atlanta lineup in 2017, and if he can avoid injury and play in 150-plus games, he could break the 30-steal plateau, flirt with 100 runs and post a batting average around .290.

 

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What are most thinking this guy can do in Atlanta this year? Seems reasonable to expect .290-85-5-40-25. Might not be a bad OF5 if you need speed to round out an OF. He might even be able to push 100 Rs this year...had 85 in 131 games last season. 

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16 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

What are most thinking this guy can do in Atlanta this year? Seems reasonable to expect .290-85-5-40-25. Might not be a bad OF5 if you need speed to round out an OF. He might even be able to push 100 Rs this year...had 85 in 131 games last season. 

Love him. True 3 cat (runs, avg, steal) guys are so underrrated esp if the steals projection between 20-30.

 

Inciarte, Andrus, Kinsler. League winners. Easiest path the value.

 

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I really like Inciarte this year not only because of his skills but also because of the skills around him. The Braves lineup is going to surprise some people this year. They're filled with guys who get on base at a decent clip and hit well in the right situations. Right now here's how the lineup projects along with their 2016 OBP...

 

Inciarte .351

Garcia .311

Freeman .400

Kemp .304

Phillips .320

Markakis .346

Swanson .361

Flowers .357

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see either Swanson or Phillips slide into that 2 hole. Markakis is another candidate for that role but I doubt they put 3 lefties at the top of the order. I think the ideal lineup for them goes like this...

 

Inciarte

Swanson

Freeman

Kemp

Markakis

Phillips

Garcia

Flowers

 

Either way, Inciarte is in front of a few guys that can hit and have hit well with runners in scoring position throughout their careers. Freeman slashes .308/.431/.510 w/RISP and Kemp slashes .279/.350/.485 w/RISP throughout their careers. To take it a step further, other guys in the lineup that could hit anywhere in the top 2-5 spots have some pretty impressive numbers as well. Markakis has a .288/.374/.425 line w/RISP and, though it's a small sample size, Swanson slashed .270/.370/.324 in 28 games last year w/RISP. Each of these 4 players numbers are even better than this if you are just looking at hitting with runners on base. This along with the fact that Inciarte has an OBP of .335 since his 2014 call-up (.351 last year) should mean he can easily reach 85 runs as his floor. I would think 100 is not out of the question barring health. Add that to the fact that he's got a minimum of 20 SB in him with the likelihood of reaching closer to 30 this guy is very underrated. His current ADP based on FantasyPros consensus rankings is 217. I'll most likely reach for him according to this ADP and I'll be very happy having him as my 4th OF when he could very well produce like a solid OF3.

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My only issue with him is that in both 15 and 16 he had nagging hammy issues. Each time he missed about a month and it affected his abilities even longer. His value depends on his legs and he goes the fantasy bench when he has leg issues.

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7 minutes ago, Squeeealer said:

My only issue with him is that in both 15 and 16 he had nagging hammy issues. Each time he missed about a month and it affected his abilities even longer. His value depends on his legs and he goes the fantasy bench when he has leg issues.

I understand the concern about that but think of it this way. Most likely if you're drafting him anywhere between picks 180-210 then it's really not going to hurt you that much if he misses time. You probably already have most, if not all, of your OF drafted and you're just looking for bench bats at this point. Plus if you have a DL spot you can just replace him for a couple weeks without having to drop his production.

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6 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I really like Inciarte this year not only because of his skills but also because of the skills around him. The Braves lineup is going to surprise some people this year. They're filled with guys who get on base at a decent clip and hit well in the right situations. Right now here's how the lineup projects along with their 2016 OBP...

 

Inciarte .351

Garcia .311

Freeman .400

Kemp .304

Phillips .320

Markakis .346

Swanson .361

Flowers .357

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see either Swanson or Phillips slide into that 2 hole. Markakis is another candidate for that role but I doubt they put 3 lefties at the top of the order. I think the ideal lineup for them goes like this...

 

Inciarte

Swanson

Freeman

Kemp

Markakis

Phillips

Garcia

Flowers

 

Either way, Inciarte is in front of a few guys that can hit and have hit well with runners in scoring position throughout their careers. Freeman slashes .308/.431/.510 w/RISP and Kemp slashes .279/.350/.485 w/RISP throughout their careers. To take it a step further, other guys in the lineup that could hit anywhere in the top 2-5 spots have some pretty impressive numbers as well. Markakis has a .288/.374/.425 line w/RISP and, though it's a small sample size, Swanson slashed .270/.370/.324 in 28 games last year w/RISP. Each of these 4 players numbers are even better than this if you are just looking at hitting with runners on base. This along with the fact that Inciarte has an OBP of .335 since his 2014 call-up (.351 last year) should mean he can easily reach 85 runs as his floor. I would think 100 is not out of the question barring health. Add that to the fact that he's got a minimum of 20 SB in him with the likelihood of reaching closer to 30 this guy is very underrated. His current ADP based on FantasyPros consensus rankings is 217. I'll most likely reach for him according to this ADP and I'll be very happy having him as my 4th OF when he could very well produce like a solid OF3.

i'm an inciarte fan, believing he will provide value to fantasy managers this season, depending on where he's drafted and the league setup.

that being said... using past data regarding RISP to make future assumptions/projections is a really bad idea. RISP isn't a stat that correlates well year to year. i can't find the article i was looking for, it was on fangraphs and it related to the cardinals team from maybe 3-5 years ago that had some crazy high numbers with RISP, but it basically debunked the fact that clutch hitting exists.

here are a couple of similar articles:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/11/8577943/baseball-clutch-hitting-visualized

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/clutch-baseball-teams-arent-clutch-baseball-teams/

 

i like everything you wrote, but i would suggest using regular slash numbers for those players you mentioned instead of RISP.

 

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8 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I understand the concern about that but think of it this way. Most likely if you're drafting him anywhere between picks 180-210 then it's really not going to hurt you that much if he misses time. You probably already have most, if not all, of your OF drafted and you're just looking for bench bats at this point. Plus if you have a DL spot you can just replace him for a couple weeks without having to drop his production.

 

If he gets hurt as a late round pick you can just DL him or drop him and wait till he gets healthy again

 

Now if he doesn't get hurt and if he produces like we think he can well you got yourself a guy who will out produce his draft position

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  That's a pace for 54 HR's,same as Mantle in '61.

 

edit-Mantle did it in a 154 game season though,so I'll give him a slight edge,

Edited by frankhoward

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Definitely seems to be seeing it well.  As a braves fan it's Great to see.  If we had this guy several years ago in the leadoff spot  when we were making the playoffs with BJ upton leading off, probably could have made a bit more noise. Love seeing an actual leadoff hitter.

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18 minutes ago, Baseball Batman said:

Has hit as many home runs in the last four games as Eric Thames, but Thames is getting all the love.

 

Well Thames actually projected to be a HR hitter from the start so makes sense he is getting more love. I'd bet if you asked most people right now under/over 30 HR for Thames, almost all would say would over; meanwhile if I asked under/over 12 HR for Inciarte, most would still say under. 

 

Regardless, Inciarte was actually dropped in my 10-team league and I am happy that I just scooped him

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4 hours ago, Baseball Batman said:

Has hit as many home runs in the last four games as Eric Thames, but Thames is getting all the love.

I own both in both leagues. Ender's power surge is more pleasantly surprising, considering that I drafted him for steals and contact. That said, I think Thames is a safer bet to sustain the pop through the season. 

Anyone seeing Ender's ABs? Is he changing his swing from last season and doing the uppercut thing, or just swinging a hot bat?

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Hot bat.  Swing is the same.  Haven't seen the homer from today but at least two of the others were off hangers, he just made them pay.  Definitely not a change that should cost him contact.

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Down to .198 now. Didn't forsee this guy being an average killer even though it's still early. I'll hold until (if) he's moved out of the leadoff spot but thinking about benching now as he's looked pretty hapless in all his recent ABs that I've seen, particularly today against Harvey who was serving up meatballs left and right. 

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17 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Down to .198 now. Didn't forsee this guy being an average killer even though it's still early. I'll hold until (if) he's moved out of the leadoff spot but thinking about benching now as he's looked pretty hapless in all his recent ABs that I've seen, particularly today against Harvey who was serving up meatballs left and right. 

I would be stunned if this continues. His career average is .287. One thing to consider is his season split from last year. He was pretty bad in the first half and then caught fire in the second half, so that might be what's happening here.

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The worst thing is,when Braves players suck this bad,they don't have a crappier team to dump their deadweight on.This guy is just awful.They have to have guys in Gwinnett better than this.Probably on their Rookie League team.

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...said as he hits a solid single off Familia

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

...said as he hits a solid single off Familia

 

He's afraid of my wrath.

 

He better go 2-4 tomorrow or I'll be back.Right here.I'm watching you Ender.

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1 minute ago, hondo said:

 

He's afraid of my wrath.

 

He better go 2-4 tomorrow or I'll be back.Right here.I'm watching you Ender.

 

5 minutes ago, hondo said:

The worst thing is,when Braves players suck this bad,they don't have a crappier team to dump their deadweight on.This guy is just awful.They have to have guys in Gwinnett better than this.Probably on their Rookie League team.

 

And he singles and swipes two. 

 

This is guy is in a hitters park and should score a good amount of runs in front of freedie.  Has good speed and some power.

 

streaky, but I wouldn't cut bait.

 

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4 minutes ago, afgolfman666 said:

 

 

And he singles and swipes two. 

 

This is guy is in a hitters park and should score a good amount of runs in front of freedie.  Has good speed and some power.

 

streaky, but I wouldn't cut bait.

 

 

I'm in this sea of offal to deep to bail.I reached for him a little in a moves limited league draft hoping for ~ 20 bags and 90+ runs,dropped him for Broxton without thinking(that went well)and picked him back up.I'm heavily invested,hence my frustration.

Edited by hondo

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