FlashGordon401

LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook

96 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Agree to disagree there, particularly in PPR where WR1s usually outscore RB1s (last year being an exception). You can usually find RB1 production for the playoffs if you play the WW right midseason (Powell last year, DJ and Deangelo Williams 2015, J. Hill 2014, Z. Stacy 2013). Elite WR1 playoff production is harder (but still possible - Meredith 2016, Baldwin 2015, OBJ 2014, K. Allen 2013) to find off the WW late in the year. 

 

Guess it depends on which position you're better at finding off the scrap heap. 

 

When RBs get hurt, they're usually replaced by RBBCs.  I typically draft 5-6 to avoid the waiver frenzy.  Waiver rules always put the best available RB on the worst team every week.  If your's goes down, you're rarely getting his backup.  I manged to pick up both Booker and Rawls last year while being last on waivers every week (I like to grab guys on Saturday while watching college football at the bar).  They both sucked.  Didn't matter as I had McCoy, Gordon, and L. Murray as my best 3.  They all finished top 12. Two were injured during playoffs though.  Ugh!

  

QBs are easiest to replace.  I draft mine after a couple teams take their backup QBs.  Mine was Stafford last year.  He was top 5 until he injured his finger.  Sucked during fantasy playoffs.

 

I got Tyrell Williams somewhere around week 8-10 last year off waivers.  He was top 24 at the time and nobody wanted to grab him.  AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, and Decker were my top 3 WRs: all injured.  Williams ended up being top 12ish.  Picked up Meredith off waivers and grabbed Moncrief a couple weeks before he was activated.  Waiver WRs were the only thing I had working during fantasy playoffs last season.  Booker OR Rawls should have been a decent sub for McCoy or Gordon.  They both sucked. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jmausen said:

 

When RBs get hurt, they're usually replaced by RBBCs.  I typically draft 5-6 to avoid the waiver frenzy.  Waiver rules always put the best available RB on the worst team every week.  If your's goes down, you're rarely getting his backup.  I manged to pick up both Booker and Rawls last year while being last on waivers every week (I like to grab guys on Saturday while watching college football at the bar).  They both sucked.  Didn't matter as I had McCoy, Gordon, and L. Murray as my best 3.  They all finished top 12. Two were injured during playoffs though.  Ugh!

  

QBs are easiest to replace.  I draft mine after a couple teams take their backup QBs.  Mine was Stafford last year.  He was top 5 until he injured his finger.  Sucked during fantasy playoffs.

 

I got Tyrell Williams somewhere around week 8-10 last year off waivers.  He was top 24 at the time and nobody wanted to grab him.  AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, and Decker were my top 3 WRs: all injured.  Williams ended up being top 12ish.  Picked up Meredith off waivers and grabbed Moncrief a couple weeks before he was activated.  Waiver WRs were the only thing I had working during fantasy playoffs last season.  Booker OR Rawls should have been a decent sub for McCoy or Gordon.  They both sucked. 

 

1- resetting weekly waivers is for rookies.  A crutch designed to be even the odds for teams that can't draft and manage well.   Rolling weekly waivers or FAAB is how most experienced leagues should run.  

 

That said-  it's even MORE important to handcuff stud backs in resetting weekly waiver leagues.   But it really comes down to the player and situation.  Every year and every team has to evaluated independent of anecdotal experience.   

4 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jmausen said:

When RBs get hurt, they're usually replaced by RBBCs.

 

There's no rule of thumb for this.

 

Bell to DWill is seamless.  Murray to Henry.  McCoy to Gilly.  Ingram to Hightower in '15.  Hyde to Harris was allright last year.

 

Every backfield is unique.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

There's no rule of thumb for this.

 

Bell to DWill is seamless.  Murray to Henry.  McCoy to Gilly.  Ingram to Hightower in '15.  Hyde to Harris was allright last year.

 

Every backfield is unique.

 

 

Top 3 RBs:

DeAngelo is done in PIT.  Does Bell have a handcuff?  Just give the ball to AB in the backfield?  Why not?

Zeke has both Morris and McFadden backing him up.

DJ doesn't have a backup.  Ellington is crap.  Throw the football instead?  John Brown++?

 

Others:

-Murray/Henry. Yes.  Handcuffed.

-Howard/Langford. Langford has a horrible ypc, but you can handcuff him.  He won't be on waivers.

-Gilly has signed an offer sheet with NE.   McCoy backup?  Garbage 1 and garbage 2.

-I thought Hightower was retired or dead or something?  Apparently not.  Guess I should have picked up that old guy off waivers?  He's gone again.  Are we back to guessing whether Cadet will have a role?  Hope your #8 waiver gets him if Ingram is hurt?  I wouldn't waste a roster spot on him.

-Shanahan wants to trade Hyde and draft a RB because Hyde doesn't fit his new zone blocking scheme.  He also doesn't have a line that can zone block? Or a backup RB.  Or a starting RB :) apparently.

-Who's in if Melvin Gordon goes down?  Do they have anyone?  Maybe this guy works out?  Gambling my fantasy season on Mr. No Name!  RB-no city wants your team.

-Who is holding Gurley's jock strap in LA?  If he goes down, that team is worse than Cleveland.

-Turbin is NOT going all out feature back if Gore hits IR.  Tubin is B.A.D. bad!

-Somebody already over drafted Coleman hoping Freeman gets hurt.

-If Ajayi goes down, Miami gets a top 10 draft pick.  Sure, they'll do something with RB until the season is over.  Mostly garbage time from here in.  You also miss the playoffs.

-Houston Texans?  Is Lamar Miller taking snaps this year?  AVOID!

-Holy Jesus Bill Belichick has a lot of RBs.  Will he play any of them?  IDK

 

Anyway, most of the backups are already sitting on someone else's bench on fantasy draft day.  

32 teams.  Most start 1-2 RBs and 3 WRs.  Getting WRs is a lot easier.

SCIENCE!  LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

 

Top 3 RBs:

DeAngelo is done in PIT.  Does Bell have a handcuff?  Just give the ball to AB in the backfield?  Why not?

Zeke has both Morris and McFadden backing him up.

DJ doesn't have a backup.  Ellington is crap.  Throw the football instead?  John Brown++?

 

Others:

-Murray/Henry. Yes.  Handcuffed.

-Howard/Langford. Langford has a horrible ypc, but you can handcuff him.  He won't be on waivers.

-Gilly has signed an offer sheet with NE.   McCoy backup?  Garbage 1 and garbage 2.

-I thought Hightower was retired or dead or something?  Apparently not.  Guess I should have picked up that old guy off waivers?  He's gone again.  Are we back to guessing whether Cadet will have a role?  Hope your #8 waiver gets him if Ingram is hurt?  I wouldn't waste a roster spot on him.

-Shanahan wants to trade Hyde and draft a RB because Hyde doesn't fit his new zone blocking scheme.  He also doesn't have a line that can zone block? Or a backup RB.  Or a starting RB :) apparently.

-Who's in if Melvin Gordon goes down?  Do they have anyone?  Maybe this guy works out?  Gambling my fantasy season on Mr. No Name!  RB-no city wants your team.

-Who is holding Gurley's jock strap in LA?  If he goes down, that team is worse than Cleveland.

-Turbin is NOT going all out feature back if Gore hits IR.  Tubin is B.A.D. bad!

-Somebody already over drafted Coleman hoping Freeman gets hurt.

-If Ajayi goes down, Miami gets a top 10 draft pick.  Sure, they'll do something with RB until the season is over.  Mostly garbage time from here in.  You also miss the playoffs.

-Houston Texans?  Is Lamar Miller taking snaps this year?  AVOID!

-Holy Jesus Bill Belichick has a lot of RBs.  Will he play any of them?  IDK

 

Anyway, most of the backups are already sitting on someone else's bench on fantasy draft day.  

32 teams.  Most start 1-2 RBs and 3 WRs.  Getting WRs is a lot easier.

SCIENCE!  LOL

 

Thats not SCIENCE!  Its SPIN!

Lets just see how the draft shakes out,  as well as camp and preseason.   Many of these assumptions won't hold true by September.    

 

Also-  If most of the backups are sitting on someone's bench...wouldn't u rather have the ones who start the same week your studs are injured?  Even a RBBC can be very helpful for a week or two if u have the correct half of the committee.   It's not like all the injuries are season enders.  

 

Edited by Impreza178
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

So just to clarify... if David Johnson has a poor 2017... and then an 'excellent' 2018... you won't draft him in the first round of 2019, because he can't be trusted to have back to back fantasy seasons?  That's your current standpoint?

 

To clarify, if DJ isn't a top-5 RB in 2017 and has an ADP of a top-5 RB in 2018, I would be very hesitant to draft him at that price. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

To clarify, if DJ isn't a top-5 RB in 2017 and has an ADP of a top-5 RB in 2018, I would be very hesitant to draft him at that price. 

 

While interesting, it's not the question I asked, nor is it the statement you initially made about McCoy.

McCoy was in fact a top-5 RB in 2016, and has an ADP of a top-5 RB in 2017.

 

Your argument against him was that he's never repeated the feat in back to back years.

So the question remains:

If David Johnson has a poor 2017... and then an 'excellent' 2018... you won't draft him in the first round of 2019, because he can't be trusted to have back to back fantasy seasons?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main question for me is will he see goal line carries with Gilly out of the picture..if so, I'll be buying in all my leagues

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

The main question for me is will he see goal line carries with Gilly out of the picture..if so, I'll be buying in all my leagues

 

For what it's worth, LeSean McCoy:

 

Rushes inside the 20: 38 (10th)

Rushes inside the 10: 24 (10th)

Rushes inside the 5:  9 (16th)

Of the 9 carries inside the 5, he converted 4 for TDs. (14 total)

 

Gillislee had 15/11/6 respectively.

Of the 6 carries inside the 5, he converted all 6 for TDs. (7 total)

 

J.Williams had 7/5/4 respectively.

Of the 4 carries inside the 5, he converted 1 for a TD. (3 total)

 

We still need to see what happens in the draft, but unless Williams is going to entirely slide into that role, I'd say it's a positive for McCoy.  But he's already top 10 in rushes inside the 10 yard line, 11 more attempts just opened up, and despite being vultured, still managed to crank out 14 TDs last year, in just 15 games.  As shown above, only 4 of McCoys TDs even came from inside the 5, so he doesn't really appear to be dependent on goal line carries to score, but obviously in the fantasy world, more is better.

 

Lastly, McCoy is only 28 years old.  Despite 8 years in the NFL, his 1,898 career rushing attempts are still relatively low compared to guys like Adrian Peterson (2,418) Matt Forte (2,253) Frank Gore (2,965) Marshawn Lynch (2,144) hell even CJ2k is sitting at (2,118).

 

As mentioned previously, currently in a 3 man tier with D.Murray, and D.Freeman, from RB4 to RB6.  How you rank them is personal preference, a strong case can be made for all 3.  If you feel inclined to add Gordon/Howard, be my guest, but that's not my style.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

While interesting, it's not the question I asked, nor is it the statement you initially made about McCoy.

McCoy was in fact a top-5 RB in 2016, and has an ADP of a top-5 RB in 2017.

 

Your argument against him was that he's never repeated the feat in back to back years.

So the question remains:

If David Johnson has a poor 2017... and then an 'excellent' 2018... you won't draft him in the first round of 2019, because he can't be trusted to have back to back fantasy seasons?

 

Would depend on his ADP...at that point he'd be at the end of his rookie contract. Timing is everything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, the_dying_dream said:

The main question for me is will he see goal line carries with Gilly out of the picture..if so, I'll be buying in all my leagues

 

Gilly may be out of the picture, but the nemesis of many a fantasy football player over the years is now a Buffalo Bill.

 

mike-tolbert-touchdown-dance.gif

 

(Mike Tolbert in case you didn't know)

 

Tolbs may be losing his touch, though. He only had one TD last season, and it was a receiving one. Still, it always seemed to me that whenever I needed a Cam, Stewart or Olsen TD, the above dance was looming.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

Gilly may be out of the picture, but the nemesis of many a fantasy football player over the years is now a Buffalo Bill.

 

 

Tolbs may be losing his touch, though. He only had one TD last season, and it was a receiving one. Still, it always seemed to me that whenever I needed a Cam, Stewart or Olsen TD, the above dance was looming.

 

Somewhat missing the point if you are worried about Mccoys touches near the GL.  That would be a nice bonus of course....but Shady won't be lacking for work.   lightning in a bottle.    

mccoy.0.gif 

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Somewhat missing the point if you are worried about Mccoys touches near the GL.  That would be a nice bonus of course....but Shady won't be lacking for work.   lightning in a bottle.    

mccoy.0.gif 

 

Look at Hogan sprinting downfield to throw a block! No wonder BB wanted him last year. 

 

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

Look at Hogan sprinting downfield to throw a block! No wonder BB wanted him last year. 

 

Right?   Laid that dude out!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Would depend on his ADP...at that point he'd be at the end of his rookie contract. Timing is everything. 

The question was "in the first round."  ADP parameters were already given.  So, does your mccoy logic apply to DJ, or not?  You seem to be dodging the question.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Felicia's Bye said:

The question was "in the first round."  ADP parameters were already given.  So, does your mccoy logic apply to DJ, or not?  You seem to be dodging the question.

 

No they weren't...unless you think Zeke and McCoy have the same ADP because they are both projected 1st round picks this year. Be specific. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought your contention was that Shady is not worth a first round pick?  If it is, but DJ in the example above would "might be" based on ADP, then your logic is inconsistent.   If your position was just that Shady may be worth a first round pick, just not an early one, then I can see what you're saying.

 

There are obviously different ADP's within the first round, but you seemed to be saying that the lack of two outstanding seasons in a row from McCoy disqualifies him from ANY of those ADP's in the next year, while the same scenario applied to DJ would not disqualify him from all of the first round spots.  

 

If that wasn't what you were saying, then my apologies.

Edited by Felicia's Bye

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Felicia's Bye said:

I thought your contention was that Shady is not worth a first round pick?  If it is, but DJ in the example above would "might be" based on ADP, then your logic is inconsistent.   If your position was just that Shady may be worth a first round pick, just not an early one, then I can see what you're saying.

 

There are obviously different ADP's within the first round, but you seemed to be saying that the lack of two outstanding seasons in a row from McCoy disqualifies him from ANY of those ADP's in the next year, while the same scenario applied to DJ would not disqualify him from all of the first round spots.  

 

If that wasn't what you were saying, then my apologies.

 

Not what I was saying. I said if a RB who had been in the league for a while (i.e. not coming off his rookie year) had never or hadn't in several seasons shown he could produce consecutive top-5 RB seasons (like McCoy, who hasn't done so since 2010-2011), it would be difficult for me to draft him the following year if his ADP was top-5 RB. That doesn't automatically mean he's not a first round pick. 

 

That being said, since this is the Shady thread -- FFCollusion somehow put DJ into this conversation -- I personally would not draft Shady in round 1 this year, especially in PPR leagues. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/19/2017 at 5:00 PM, Impreza178 said:

 

1- resetting weekly waivers is for rookies.  A crutch designed to be even the odds for teams that can't draft and manage well.   Rolling weekly waivers or FAAB is how most experienced leagues should run.  

 

That said-  it's even MORE important to handcuff stud backs in resetting weekly waiver leagues.   But it really comes down to the player and situation.  Every year and every team has to evaluated independent of anecdotal experience.   

 

Or you get a stud WR and then take the solid handcuffs in later rounds since RB's get injured all the time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

it would be difficult for me to draft him the following year if his ADP was top-5 RB. That doesn't automatically mean he's not a first round pick. 

 

Actually it does.  In the past 7 years there has never been less than 5 RBs taken in the first round, even in PPR scoring.  I highly doubt it ever happened before 2010 (but didn't check) and as for the chances of it happening in the future... 'there are none on the horizon' ;)

 

I made the connection to David Johnson to point out what @Felicia's Bye has already explained to you at length, and what the crowd has hopefully picked up by your evasive responses.  Your logic is not consistent across players.  You pick and choose when things matter, based on whether or not you like a player.  You proved that by refusing to answer the question.  It draws into question whether your analysis can be trusted, or whether you're just specifically biased towards/against players, saying anything you can in an attempt to discredit them in a misleading way to the people who read this forum.

 

On the off chance others haven't picked up on it, to ensure this all ties back into LeSean McCoy the bottom line is this:

If David Johnson (or Bell, or Zeke, Murray, Freeman, etc) fails in 2017, and is then a top 5 RB again in 2018... you should not let the odd fact that "he's never had a top 5 finish in back to back years" deter you from ranking/drafting him as a top 5 back in 2019.  At least not on that merit alone.

 

Ergo... the odd fact that LeSean McCoy (and nearly every RB sans 3-5) hasn't had two top 5 seasons back-to-back shouldn't be a justifiable reason to claim he's not worth a top 5 RB ADP.  In my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

As mentioned previously, currently in a 3 man tier with D.Murray, and D.Freeman, from RB4 to RB6.  How you rank them is personal preference, a strong case can be made for all 3.  If you feel inclined to add Gordon/Howard, be my guest, but that's not my style

 

I've got Freeman behind Gordon and Howard.   I'm interested to get your take on it.  I'm going to post my thinking to the Freeman thread so as not to derail the Shady discussion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.