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Travis Shaw 2017 Outlook

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is Shaw the starting 3B in Milwaukee?

 

this from CBS..

Quote

Travis Shaw impressed with his performance at the tail end of the 2015 season, and after he put up a strong showing in spring training, he usurped Pablo Sandoval for the starting job at third base. Shaw rewarded the Boston brass for this decision immediately, as he slashed .302/.362/.527 with seven home runs and 35 runs batted in over the first two months of the season. Things went south quickly from there, as the whiffs continued to pile up and the hits refused to fall, bringing his season batting average down to .242 while hitting just nine more home runs over the rest of the season. The flash of excellence Shaw displayed should warrant some intrigue from fantasy owners on draft day, although the struggles are also hard to ignore, which led the Red Sox to trade him to the Brewers. This change in scenery could bode well for Shaw, though, as he's expected to be a near-everyday third baseman with home games in an extremely hitter-friendly environment.

 

this from thedynastyguru..

Quote

It was a tale of two halves for Shaw in 2016. The first half saw a potential breakout, with a line of .269/.332/.456. Boston fans even clamored for Shaw’s inclusion on the All-Star team as the franchise’s third baseman of the future. In the second half, Shaw hit .194/.259/.360 and was shipped out of town during the offseason. Needless to say, the Brewers are hoping for more of “First Half Shaw,” and he might be able to deliver something close to that for them.

 

I see this in a write up from mrcheatsheet..

Quote

Travis Shaw’s arrival in Milwaukee presents an interesting situation for fantasy baseball owners. It opens up a full-time role for Pablo Sandoval in Boston while hurting Hernan Perez’s sleeper potential in Milwaukee. The good news is that Shaw is a much better fit for Miller Park than Fenway. That switch alone could add a few HR’s to his totals this year. His profile indicates that he could easily jump up to 25 HR’s if given a full year of plate appearances in 2017.

 

I see this for his RH/LH splits too.

 

vs RHP- .257/.325/.437/.762

vs LHP- .187/.235/.364/.599

 

 

2017 expectations?

 

 

       

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Don't know how he handle the splits but I really like what Milwaukee did this year in bringing in discount players taht really fit a power mold that is perfect for their park. I think Shaw could really explode against RHP this year especially in terms of power in Miller. 

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Between 3B and 1B, I think Shaw gets a good number of at bats. I'll probably own him in every league given his current price of nothing.

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7 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Between 3B and 1B, I think Shaw gets a good number of at bats. I'll probably own him in every league given his current price of nothing.

 

I really doubt he plays at all at first unless you're projecting Thames to bust and they're both lefties.

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I really doubt he plays at all at first unless you're projecting Thames to bust and they're both lefties.

 

I'd put any amount of money on Shaw playing some 1B this year.

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1 minute ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I'd put any amount of money on Shaw playing some 1B this year.

 

Whats some 1B? Edit: and I'm not gonna gamble you on it but just in general

Edited by taobball

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Whats some 1B? Edit: and I'm not gonna gamble you on it but just in general

 

More than "at all" (which is what you said). I don't see how you could project Shaw to not play any 1B this year.

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Just now, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

More than "at all" (which is what you said). I don't see how you could project Shaw to not play any 1B this year.

 

Well if you wanna bicker about 5 games fine. You're getting a little too literal, mate. I think he could play "at all," I don't see him playing a relevant amount. Better?

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Well if you wanna bicker about 5 games fine. You're getting a little too literal, mate. I think he could play "at all," I don't see him playing a relevant amount. Better?

 

Well if that's not what you meant then don't say it. Anyhow, how many games would make him playing 1B "relevant"?

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12 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Well if that's not what you meant then don't say it. Anyhow, how many games would make him playing 1B "relevant"?

 

I like the i won't give a number only ask

mentality :rolleyes:

 

Thames is the starting 1B, and there is no Platoon advantage to playing Shaw. If Thames is successful, I see him playing 155-160 games and I don't see him playing any other position than first. To me a relevant amount would be enough to get eligibility in an ESPN league next year which I do not expect given that Thames pans out. I'd project right around 5 games, which for all intents and purposes might as well be none at all for all I care... my point is simply I wouldn't characterizse it as "between these two positions" as you did because I don't expect one to really significantly add to his PAs. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I like the i won't give a number only ask

mentality :rolleyes:

 

Thames is the starting 1B, and there is no Platoon advantage to playing Shaw. If Thames is successful, I see him playing 155-160 games and I don't see him playing any other position than first. To me a relevant amount would be enough to get eligibility in an ESPN league next year which I do not expect given that Thames pans out. I'd project right around 5 games, which for all intents and purposes might as well be none at all for all I care... my point is simply I wouldn't characterizse it as "between these two positions" as you did because I don't expect one to really significantly add to his PAs. 

 

I'll take the over 5 games at 1B for Shaw all the way to the bank.

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Just now, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I'll take the over 5 games at 1B for Shaw all the way to the bank.

 

6 is over 5. Give me an actual range where you're expecting.. do you expect him to just play over Thames or do you expect Thames to bust?

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Just now, taobball said:

 

6 is over 5. Give me an actual range where you're expecting.. do you expect him to just play over Thames or do you expect Thames to bust?

 

I'd take over 10 games at 1B.

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8 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I'd take over 10 games at 1B.

 

Thats still not a lot to be mentioning in PT for me but we're deeply into semantics now. 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Thats still not a lot to be mentioning in PT for me but we're deeply into semantics now. 

 

You literally just said that becoming ESPN eligible is would you would consider relevant. 10 games is ESPN eligible and I am fairly confident Shaw will exceed that.

 

 

Interleague play alone could get Shaw to 5+ games at 1B.

 

On top of that:

 

-There is a legitimate question mark as to how Thames' success will translate to MLB pitching. He could bust.

-Even if he doesn't bust he might not be a must-start every day player for MIL, especially if he goes through any slumps.

-125 games (2014), 142 games (2015), 121 games (2016). I'm not sure if Thames has an injury history, but it remains to be seen if Thames can take the field 155-160 times at age 30.

 

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3 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

You literally just said that becoming ESPN eligible is would you would consider relevant. 10 games is ESPN eligible and I am fairly confident Shaw will exceed that.

 

 

Interleague play alone could get Shaw to 5+ games at 1B.

 

On top of that:

 

-There is a legitimate question mark as to how Thames' success will translate to MLB pitching. He could bust.

-Even if he doesn't bust he might not be a must-start every day player for MIL, especially if he goes through any slumps.

-125 games (2014), 142 games (2015), 121 games (2016). I'm not sure if Thames has an injury history, but it remains to be seen if Thames can take the field 155-160 times at age 30.

 

 

Again, I mentioned Thames failing. Yes it is semi-relevant to me but I don't see it as a big deal for projecting playing time. If you're projecting a large chunk of time for Shaw at first you're expecting Thames to fail, that was my entire point. Are those KBO game totals? I don't really know what to make of his Korean health... 

 

I mean I just see him as a primary third baseman that if he doesn't even out his platoon splits could get benched for Hernan Perez mostly. If he gets Thames' off days or Thames moves to DH or he plays DH in interleague, that's there too. Mostly though I think it's going to come down to Hernan Perez and whether Shaw can hit his way out of apaper bag against lefties. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Again, I mentioned Thames failing. Yes it is semi-relevant to me but I don't see it as a big deal for projecting playing time. If you're projecting a large chunk of time for Shaw at first you're expecting Thames to fail, that was my entire point. Are those KBO game totals? I don't really know what to make of his Korean health... 

 

I mean I just see him as a primary third baseman that if he doesn't even out his platoon splits could get benched for Hernan Perez mostly. If he gets Thames' off days or Thames moves to DH or he plays DH in interleague, that's there too. Mostly though I think it's going to come down to Hernan Perez and whether Shaw can hit his way out of apaper bag against lefties. 

 

No one said anything about a large chunk of time for Shaw at 1B. But the point remains that Shaw is the primary backup at 1B where the starter is a 30 year old that hasn't played over 142 games since 2013 or taken an MLB at bat since 2012. Hence my comment "between 3B and 1B, I think Shaw gets a good number of at bats."

 

Shaw will likely get the majority of his ABs at 3B, but there are plenty of realistic scenarios where Shaw gets more than a few games at 1B.

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Just now, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

No one said anything about a large chunk of time for Shaw at 1B. But the point remains that Shaw is the primary backup at 1B where the starter is a 30 year old that hasn't played over 142 games since 2013 or taken an MLB at bat since 2012. Hence my comment "between 3B and 1B, I think Shaw gets a good number of at bats."

 

Shaw will likely get the majority of his ABs at 3B, but there are plenty of realistic scenarios where Shaw gets more than a few games at 1B.

 

Yeah man I think we've made a little too much of this. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah man I think we've made a little too much of this. 

 

I just don't see how someone could project only 5 games for Shaw at 1B. You're entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't make much sense to me.

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9 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I just don't see how someone could project only 5 games for Shaw at 1B. You're entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't make much sense to me.

 

What do you mean? Thames plays 158. They don't move Shaw off 3B. Someone else plays 1B and they keep Shaw at 3B when Thames is benched... how many games do you typically expect the primary first baseman to not play? I think there's much larger variables to Shaws playing time primarily as I mentioned his ability to hit lefties or not that's much more important. Again, they have a primary first baseman who is same handed as Shaw... if Thames is healthy it's not impossible he plays 162... it's first base. I never said there wasn't a route, it just isn't really something I think is highly relevant against his potential to be platooned if he hits .187/.235/.364. I was at work at the time so maybe if I was on my laptop I could've made it more clear but my essential point is: saying "between x and y position for PT" seems to suggest to me that you're less worried that he gets benched for various reasons... but if Thames hits and Perez waits in the wings, I don't think an avenue for 1B is really this issue here for PT, I think it's whether he plays like a platoon player or can hit above the mendoza line against Lefties. And my point is simply that if Thames was Right Handed, I think the avenue to PT-- the point of both positions-- would make a lot more sense, but other than the potential for rest, injury, or failure on Thames' part I don't see them benching one lefty for the other and I think they favor Thames right now which is why I don't really think much of Shaw playing 1B because if Thames produces and stays healthy he's nothing more than a rest day player at First and that's not really something I look at for an additional avenue for PT. Again: Lefites. That's going to have a vastly greater correlation to his PT so that's why I don't really care about this argument anymore. 

Edited by taobball

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13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

What do you mean? Thames plays 158. They don't move Shaw off 3B. Someone else plays 1B and they keep Shaw at 3B when Thames is benched... how many games do you typically expect the primary first baseman to not play? I think there's much larger variables to Shaws playing time primarily as I mentioned his ability to hit lefties or not that's much more important. Again, they have a primary first baseman who is same handed as Shaw... if Thames is healthy it's not impossible he plays 162... it's first base. I never said there wasn't a route, it just isn't really something I think is highly relevant against his potential to be platooned if he hits .187/.235/.364. I was at work at the time so maybe if I was on my laptop I could've made it more clear but my essential point is: saying "between x and y position for PT" seems to suggest to me that you're less worried that he gets benched for various reasons... but if Thames hits and Perez waits in the wings, I don't think an avenue for 1B is really this issue here for PT, I think it's whether he plays like a platoon player or can hit above the mendoza line against Lefties. And my point is simply that if Thames was Right Handed, I think the avenue to PT-- the point of both positions-- would make a lot more sense, but other than the potential for rest, injury, or failure on Thames' part I don't see them benching one lefty for the other and I think they favor Thames right now which is why I don't really think much of Shaw playing 1B because if Thames produces and stays healthy he's nothing more than a rest day player at First and that's not really something I look at for an additional avenue for PT. Again: Lefites. That's going to have a vastly greater correlation to his PT so that's why I don't really care about this argument anymore. 

 

I think we disagree fundamentally on how big this "if" is. He's a 30 year old player who has played 125, 142, and 121 games the past three seasons and his last MLB at bat was 5 years ago.

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6 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I think we disagree fundamentally on how big this "if" is. He's a 30 year old player who has played 125, 142, and 121 games the past three seasons and his last MLB at bat was 5 years ago.

 

I don't think we do, my very first post mentioned Thames. I've never once said Thames will say healthy, I'm just not PROJECTING the injury to give Shaw the time. I do think we disagree fundamentally about how much weight to give to slight injuries that happened in Korea that we don't have information on or at least I haven't seen any information on. But I've said at every point "If Thames is successful" and "If Thames pans out" so I'm literally saying that I do see how it can happen if Thames odesn't but you need something to happen to Thames and I'm not just going to project an injury on Thames. 

 

 

EDIT: You're acting like I'm saying something is impossible and I'm not. I'm just saying that in order for the PT at First Base to be relevant, something WOULD have to happen to Thames whether it be injury or performance related, and I'm not going to project that. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying whatw ill happen, but I'm not going to project an injury on Thames to boost Shaw's PT and make my projection reliant on another player getting hurt, especially when we have little to no information about these supposed injury concerns. 

Edited by taobball

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

I don't think we do, my very first post mentioned Thames. I've never once said Thames will say healthy, I'm just not PROJECTING the injury to give Shaw the time. I do think we disagree fundamentally about how much weight to give to slight injuries that happened in Korea that we don't or at least I haven't seen any information on. But I've said at every point "If Thames is successful" and "If Thames pans out" so I'm literally saying that I do see how it can happen if Thames odesn't but you need something to happen to Thames and I'm not just going to project an injury on Thames. 

 

He missed ~20 games two of the past three years and is now 30 years old. It's worth at least considering. You don't have to PROJECT the injury to acknowledge the fact that Shaw is the primary backup to a guy that could very well either 1. Bust, 2. Struggle/Slump, or 3. Miss time due to injury.

 

The odds of one of those three things happening...... combined with the fact that Shaw could play 1B during interleague games..... makes your projection of 5 games at 1B pretty senseless IMO. Odds weigh heavily in favor of Shaw playing more than 5 games at 1B.

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3 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

He missed ~20 games two of the past three years and is now 30 years old. It's worth at least considering. You don't have to PROJECT the injury to acknowledge the fact that Shaw is the primary backup to a guy that could very well either 1. Bust, 2. Struggle/Slump, or 3. Miss time due to injury.

 

The odds of one of those three things happening...... combined with the fact that Shaw could play 1B during interleague games..... makes your projection of 5 games at 1B pretty senseless IMO. Odds weigh heavily in favor of Shaw playing more than 5 games at 1B.


But I did acknowledge it. Everywhere. Your'e just being silly now. Yeah, Shaw could play 1B in interleague. He could also not play 1B in interleague. Again, that's not something I'm just going to project on a whim. Just because I don't project it doesn't mean it isn't possible or that I don't even think it's likely. Projections are conservative. Projecting five games for a guy who isn't the primary first baseman isn't senseless. Having this argument over five ******** games is senseless. 

Edited by taobball

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:


But I did acknowledge it. Everywhere. Your'e just being silly now. Yeah, Shaw could play 1B in interleague. He could also not play 1B in interleague. Projecting five games for a guy who isn't the primary first baseman isn't senseless. Having this argument over five ******** games is senseless. 

 

Projecting 5 games at 1B for Travis Shaw is pretty senseless when you consider who he is backing up and the fact one of them will likely DH in interleague play. I'd bet you, but we both know you're not confident enough in your rambling to bet on it.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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