JFS179

2017 Rotoworld Mock Draft III -- Discussion Thread

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Hey guys after a night and half a day puking....I can actually stand up now.  Ill make my pick...no flu is stopping me from MOCK DRAFTING! 

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

Hey guys after a night and half a day puking....I can actually stand up now.  Ill make my pick...no flu is stopping me from MOCK DRAFTING! 

@Brooklyn Dude 

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It seems the draft is going slow enough to get a stomach flu and get through it without missing a pick

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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

It seems the draft is going slow enough to get a stomach flu and get through it without missing a pick

Really hoping to finish this in less than a week... 

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24 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Fixed now. Sorry about that.

Loves me some Paxton, but as your SP1?  This makes me nervous and goes back to the point where I think you need at least ONE elite arm in the first four rounds 

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2 minutes ago, midlip said:

Loves me some Paxton, but as your SP1?  This makes me nervous and goes back to the point where I think you need at least ONE elite arm in the first four rounds 

I agree with this, I just wanted to try the "wait forever on SP strategy" in a mock since I've never done it before and some people swear by it. I honestly kinda hate my team

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2 minutes ago, midlip said:

Loves me some Paxton, but as your SP1?  This makes me nervous and goes back to the point where I think you need at least ONE elite arm in the first four rounds 

Hypothetically, someone could have gone Strasburg, Carlos Martinez, Gerrit Cole, and Cole Hamels in consecutive rounds here. Do you still maintain that you need 1 elite arm in the first four if you go, again hypothetically and in revisionist history, Arenado, EE, Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez, and Wil Myers the first 5? I think there are plenty ways to build a staff but it has to be planned for and stuck with. Saying you're going to take someone in the first four rounds for the sake of it puts you at a disadvantage imo. 

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6 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I agree with this, I just wanted to try the "wait forever on SP strategy" in a mock since I've never done it before and some people swear by it. I honestly kinda hate my team

I typically want to allocate 2, maybe 3 picks in the top 10 to my staff but there's a cut off in tiers in SP that I refuse to be bumped out of this year (#17 on my SP ranks - Kyle Hendricks). 

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7 minutes ago, Stein said:

I typically want to allocate 2, maybe 3 picks in the top 10 to my staff but there's a cut off in tiers in SP that I refuse to be bumped out of this year (#17 on my SP ranks - Kyle Hendricks). 

For me it's top 16 (I'm not really comfortable with Hendricks as my SP1)

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11 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

For me it's top 16 (I'm not really comfortable with Hendricks as my SP1)

 

Neither am I. Hendricks is an excellent SP2.

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For me, it's not about my SP1 or SP2 but the collective unit. Give me Hendricks and Kenta Maeda over Verlander and Danny Salazar. Doesn't matter what you label them. 

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7 minutes ago, Stein said:

For me, it's not about my SP1 or SP2 but the collective unit. Give me Hendricks and Kenta Maeda over Verlander and Danny Salazar. Doesn't matter what you label them. 

Very true (although personally I think I prefer the latter group, but that's just my preference and a different argument altogether). I do think people get caught up on the labels instead of just building a good staff.

For example, in one league I plan on not drafting someone I consider a SP2, and make up the ground by getting multiple SP3-SP4 guys (who I see as better value picks than the lower end SP2 guys).

All about your staff as a whole

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i have another pick for jfazz but i'm going to wait just a few because he usually prefers for a waiting period before posting off a Q but I"m tagging @Stein now and telling him it'll be up in the latest in 15 minutes. 

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This mock has crazy value on pitching 

 

Julio in the 11th round? No way my real draft goes this way...

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1 minute ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Lol told you guys you can wait on SP 

 

There's still a massive difference between these guys and the top. And I'm a bit higher than the industry on Teheran. But I agree for the most part, but if more people were rushing SP it'd be different it' just a pace of the draft thing. 

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On ‎2‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 0:37 PM, Stein said:

Rich Hill - considering who is left... hm.

 

 

Ok - most of these guys I was considering are gone now... though SPs have fallen MUCH MUCH farther than I anticipated.  I was shocked Kluber was there at 3.11, but I took him.  I kept being surprised guys were falling, but it felt like the tier breaks just didn't like up with my spot, and I didn't want to reach. 

 

Then we get to Round 7, and Hendricks was the last of that Tier, and yet when I compared Hendricks to Upton, I felt Upton offered more value.  I wanted both... and truthfully I didn't really think through which one @taobball was less likely to take (I mean the dude has posted his entire rankings, so I could've just read those).  I took the bat (probably in reaction to taking Kluber earlier), and tao sniped Hendricks immediately. 

 

At that point, I was staring at Hamels, Tanaka, and Duffy primarily.  I don't trust Gerritt Cole with that shoulder, and if I'm wrong, I'm ok being wrong there.  I personally believe Duffy easily has SP2 upside, so to me it kinda boiled down to Duffy vs. Hill.  I like Tanaka just fine, and he's actually younger than you'd think (go look it up).  The elbow thing is still kinda in the back of my mind though, but I could get past that.  His K-rate dropped last year, but as taobball has pointed out, his SwStk% is still plenty healthy to support a K-rate bounce back, and he's kept the ratios rather pristine for a few years now.  He's probably who I *should* have taken, but I'm ok not having Tanaka given the AL East, the OK K-rate, and the fact that I don't think the Yankees are going to be very good this year.  Hamels just bothers me... it seems like his blow-ups have no rhyme or reason - he just gets nailed and you have zero idea it's coming.  His WHIP the last year spiked to 1.31.  His WHIP the year before was 1.20, which is OK, but it's not really great... especially combined with a 3.6+ ERA.  He'll get some wins and he'll get some Ks, but... I'm just not a Hamels guy.

 

So that left Duffy -- I love Duffy (owned him everywhere last year).  I think the September swoon had a lot more to do with him just being worn out than with hitters figuring him out.  I think he could end the year as an SP1 and I wouldn't be shocked.  I wanted to pair Duffy with Hill and Kluber -- that was the plan.  In my mind, Hill is an outright STUD.  His ratios are ELITE (2.12 last year with a 2.39 FIP; 1.00 WHIP).  His K-rate is ELITE at 10.5 per 9.  His home park is a solid pitcher's park, and he has two more in division in AT&T and PETCO.  I probably wouldn't start him at Coors, but the D-backs lineup doesn't really scare me enough to bench him at Chase Field.  The only question, IMO, is health.  Last year Hill only managed 110 IP, but the majority of his missed starts came from a blister from hell.  Maybe I'm being naïve and underrating that, but it doesn't sound like a chronic issue to me.  It seems to me that he should at least have learned how to prevent it or treat it more effectively.

 

Ultimately, I decided I'd rather have 150 IP of Hill than 200 IP of Hamels/Tanaka/Duffy.  I think his ERA could be a full run or more better than theirs, and his WHIP .1+ better than theirs.  If he hits 150 IP like I think he can, he'll probably get there with 165-170Ks, which makes the strikeout gap negligible.  And honestly, I thought he stood the biggest chance to get sniped before it got back to me.  Then only Cole and Duffy (I think) went before it got back to me, so maybe I just completely misread the market.  At that point, I decided if everyone else was punting pitching down the road, then I'd take two more bats too (Ozuna and Peraza).

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38 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

There's still a massive difference between these guys and the top. And I'm a bit higher than the industry on Teheran. But I agree for the most part, but if more people were rushing SP it'd be different it' just a pace of the draft thing. 

 

Bingo -- I don't think a real draft room would play out this way because whatever draft software would have the Top Available Players screen littered with pitchers, and people would have started taking them sooner.

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