JenksDodger

Kyle Tucker, OF HOU

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Cant see why Hays potentially being closer means anything. I would much rather have Tucker. Also Hays started in AA.

 

Anyway I don't think Jenks and I were trying to compare him to other guys and say you should stash him over X prospect. Maybe that should be asked in the assistant coach forum.

 

Merely discussing an elite prospect that some people might be underestimating when he's up. For instance at the beginning of the offseason I was very bearish on his 2018 impact, that has changed. Whether he or Senzel is up first and who has a better rookie year? Can't say with any sort of confidence.

 

Sooner matters for one big reason: opportunity cost. As someone who routinely holds prospects, I know that you are  under pressure for those roster spots  as injuries occur. Sooner means you can evaluate their impact, use them for other injured players, etc. Held prospects are dead roster spots for the most part. The longer the roster spot is dead, the more likely a pressure will come that forces a decision to hold the prospect, add the hot start, waive a hurt player with full DL slots, etc.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Sooner matters for one big reason: opportunity cost. As someone who routinely holds prospects, I know that you are  under pressure for those roster spots  as injuries occur. Sooner means you can evaluate their impact, use them for other injured players, etc. Held prospects are dead roster spots for the most part. The longer the roster spot is dead, the more likely a pressure will come that forces a decision to hold the prospect, add the hot start, waive a hurt player with full DL slots, etc.

 

Well I've owner for 3 years in  a dynasty league with 25 minor league spots and 16 teams, thus he really isn't hurting my roster ?. Probably one of the best trade chips in the league.

 

Again not trying to do the AC thing here. I really don't care if he comes up this month or September, honestly. My opinion is just that.

 

The thread is about Tucker not whether you should be stashing him vs owning Jake Junis or  Nick Senzel. I havent advocated for any fantasy decisions to be made, just stating my opinions on when i think he could be up. He's a rookie, real chance even if he gets called up soon he'll struggle and be sent down. I'm realistic about these things.

Edited by brockpapersizer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Well I own him in a dynasty league with 25 minor league spots and 16 teams, thus he really isn't hurting my roster ?. Probably one of the best trade chips in the league.

 

Again not trying to do the AC thing here. I really don't care if he comes up this month or September, honestly. My opinion is just that. 

 

16-teamer with 15 MILB slots for me! Just dealt for him, so I agree that he's awesome. For the record, I actually also had him held in a redraft for the first two weeks, but ended up needing the slot. I don't hate the idea of holding Tucker now, but I just don't think expecting him before June is a reasonable expectation. Maybe there's an injury and it happens... no guarantees, but if you stash Tucker now, you should do so expecting it to be a little while.

 

I think most everyone talking in this thread sees Tucker as an impact bat. I actually think he's better as a fantasy prospect than he might be even as a baseball prospect.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im adding him today in my 10 teamer (28 roster spots).  He has only K'd one time in the last 5 games.  I cant imagine they will wait 2 months to promote him. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, jdbob11 said:

Im adding him today in my 10 teamer (28 roster spots).  He has only K'd one time in the last 5 games.  I cant imagine they will wait 2 months to promote him. 

 

Really? You can't imagine the WS champs who are on pace for 100+ wins being patient here???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Really? You can't imagine the WS champs who are on pace for 100+ wins being patient here???

Im thinking a month or so.  It really all depends on the OF production and injuries.  But I have a pretty decent lineup right now and I got him for $0 FAAB so I dont mind having him on my team instead of someone I only stick in there on Monday and Thursday.

Edited by jdbob11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

Im thinking a month or so.  It really all depends on the OF production and injuries.  But I have a pretty decent lineup right now and I got him for $0 FAAB so I dont mind having him on my team instead of someone I only stick in there on Monday and Thursday.

Well if you think they are waiting a month why would they not wait a few more weeks and gain an extra year of control when he becomes expensive?  Someone posted what that actually would mean in dollar value then.  It's significant enough. Plus these dates are well understood by us because teams do this already.

 

In any event I own as well (12 team) but am not counting on him being up early, nor actually being a difference maker right away.  Unless he busts out from the start (maybe he will) I am guessing he'll sit against a fair number of lefties this year.  In 12 team leagues you really need full time ab's.

 

Maybe I am not quite as high on him as others at least for this year. I think the Shawn Green comp is perfect but it took him awhile to get going himself. On the other hand rookies seem to be busting out like never before. Last year was just crazy imo.  It's fun to hold and hope though. Will see what happens...

Edited by knuckleheads

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know most of the argument is centered on when he gets the call. You guys our killing the positive vibe Tucker gives me. Killed it in spring training. Has an amazing talent and will be leading some dynasty baseball owners to some championships!

giphy.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

Well if you think they are waiting a month why would they not wait a few more weeks and gain an extra year of control when he becomes expensive?  Someone posted what that actually would mean in dollar value then.  It's significant enough. Plus these dates are well understood by us because teams do this already.

 

In any event I own as well (12 team) but am not counting on him being up early, nor actually being a difference maker right away.  Unless he busts out from the start (maybe he will) I am guessing he'll sit against a fair number of lefties this year.  In 12 team leagues you really need full time ab's.

 

Maybe I am not quite as high on him as others at least for this year. I think the Shawn Green comp is perfect but it took him awhile to get going himself. On the other hand rookies seem to be busting out like never before. Last year was just crazy imo.  It's fun to hold and hope though. Will see what happens...

You are confusing extra year of control with Super Two.  Extra year of control happens as long as hes not called up until Monday or so.  Super Two has to do with when he can first be eligible for arbitration.  They have his rights for the same amount of time whether they call him up Monday or in June. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

You are confusing extra year of control with Super Two.  Extra year of control happens as long as hes not called up until Monday or so.  Super Two has to do with when he can first be eligible for arbitration.  They have his rights for the same amount of time whether they call him up Monday or in June. 

 

True.  I should have been precise...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Astros have got 4 runs from their LFs in 14 games so far.. 

 

That position has hit .200/.320/.350

 

Just a little something to monitor.. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Went 2/4 last night with a run scored and an RBI.. has struck out twice in the last 7 games, and has walked 6 times in the same time frame. 

 

Through 40AB's 

 

.300/.404/.450 

 

Something tells me the Astros are having him work on plate patience and making contact opposed to selling out for power.. Just a hunch, but he's showing better plate patience than ever before and is making contact more than in the past.. (Only through 40ABs, but it's trending in that direction).. Unless this is just part of him maturing and realizing he can impact the game in other ways besides hitting bombs.. Anyways, it's definitely a solid development for his game, if it continues. The GB% is way higher and the opposite with the FB%.. Line Drive % is up. Obviously is an extremely small sample.. but the Astros said they sent him down to work on a few swing adjustments.. this could be it, no? 

 

Marwin started at LF last night and put up another 0fer.. LF is hitting .181 through 15 games and has scored 4 runs.. Angels have a 2.5 game lead and are looking really damn good. 

Edited by JenksDodger
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Marwin a lot, but I still think he's best used as a utility guy until an injury forces him into a regular position. So yeah, sure he could be the defact LF guy right now, but literally anyone besides a catcher gets hurt and he's the best fill in, and someone always gets hurt.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems a to be a few posters here, or at least one poster over and over, very eager to see Tucker. That's fine. He's a great prospect and arguably ready for the majors right now. And yeah, he's down in AAA as much for service time issues as anything. But I still don't think we'll see him anytime soon. There's a few reasons here:

 

(1) Tucker has played 10 whole games at AAA. 11 after today. That's basically nothing. You could argue this is the same organization that "rushed" Correa (I'd argue that Correa simply proved he was ready). But Correa still avoided Super-2 status. So no matter how fast they moved Correa, they avoided that extra arbitration year. Which was key. Ditto for Bregman. Service time games are still a real issue

 

(2) The Astros do have options. They've played most of the season without Gurriel. He's back now. He may not be a great player, but he posted a 2.6 WAR last year. That said, Gurriel's a 1B and Tucker's an OF. And the the outfield will normally be Gonzalez, Springer, and Reddick.  Springer's a stud. Reddick posted 3.0 and 2.2 WAR the last two years. Gonzalez is the most unproven, but was at 3.1 WAR last year. These are positive players. I believe the player most likely to lose at bats would be Evan Gattis at DH. So there's technically room. But a few weeks is too early to write off any of the established players and it's too soon to say Tucker is definitely ready. Particularly when that gamble will easily cost the Astros millions. Not just in 2021, but the next several years thereafter. There's basically no reason to call up Tucker now. You'd only get the difference between what Tucker provided over who he replaced. And even if Tucker was pretty good from the get go (unlike Bregman), that's likely worth little because the Astros have other options. Hell, even if you wanted to replace Gattis, you could call up Tyler White or AJ Reed, both doing just fine at AAA and with better current numbers than Tucker.

 

Bottom line, there's very little benefit to the Astros because of their depth and talent. And any decision to bring Tucket up would literally cost the team 8 digits down the road. And the best case scenario is that maybe Tucker's a bit better than Evan Gattis? Or Tyler White? Or Aj Reed?

  • Like 6
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

sorry 0-4 4 ks. 

That's what happens when you face the Big Sexy

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Jericho said:

There seems a to be a few posters here, or at least one poster over and over, very eager to see Tucker. That's fine. He's a great prospect and arguably ready for the majors right now. And yeah, he's down in AAA as much for service time issues as anything. But I still don't think we'll see him anytime soon. There's a few reasons here:

 

(1) Tucker has played 10 whole games at AAA. 11 after today. That's basically nothing. You could argue this is the same organization that "rushed" Correa (I'd argue that Correa simply proved he was ready). But Correa still avoided Super-2 status. So no matter how fast they moved Correa, they avoided that extra arbitration year. Which was key. Ditto for Bregman. Service time games are still a real issue

 

(2) The Astros do have options. They've played most of the season without Gurriel. He's back now. He may not be a great player, but he posted a 2.6 WAR last year. That said, Gurriel's a 1B and Tucker's an OF. And the the outfield will normally be Gonzalez, Springer, and Reddick.  Springer's a stud. Reddick posted 3.0 and 2.2 WAR the last two years. Gonzalez is the most unproven, but was at 3.1 WAR last year. These are positive players. I believe the player most likely to lose at bats would be Evan Gattis at DH. So there's technically room. But a few weeks is too early to write off any of the established players and it's too soon to say Tucker is definitely ready. Particularly when that gamble will easily cost the Astros millions. Not just in 2021, but the next several years thereafter. There's basically no reason to call up Tucker now. You'd only get the difference between what Tucker provided over who he replaced. And even if Tucker was pretty good from the get go (unlike Bregman), that's likely worth little because the Astros have other options. Hell, even if you wanted to replace Gattis, you could call up Tyler White or AJ Reed, both doing just fine at AAA and with better current numbers than Tucker.

 

Bottom line, there's very little benefit to the Astros because of their depth and talent. And any decision to bring Tucket up would literally cost the team 8 digits down the road. And the best case scenario is that maybe Tucker's a bit better than Evan Gattis? Or Tyler White? Or Aj Reed?

 

Who could that be? Surely not me...? I wouldn't say eager, but more so frustrated with the product currently on the field.. I watch the Astros 162 games a year and what's been going on is truly pathetic. What happened last night was pathetic.

 

1) The level of the team and where they are at now is completely different.. If this team was a losing team and had no shot at winning, then yes I'd agree that there's absolutely no chance of Tucker seeing the field probably until late this year or early 2019.. There'd be no incentive to call him up.. but, that is not the case.. and to even compare the two is actually kind of silly. One is the favorite to win a division with a viable competitor in the AL West (the angels) and the other had absolutely nothing to play for but pride.. 

 

2) You do realize the Astros have played Marwin as a super-utility since 2014, right? He's better served as a utility man.. not a full-time starter at one position. Why are they all of a sudden going to do something different with Marwin? That's what no one in this thread has been able to answer.. what makes this year different? You quote his WAR from last year when he only started 38 games at LF.. So that's a stat that actually proves how valuable he is to the Astros in a utility position. This last part makes absolutely no sense.. "You'd only get the difference between what Tucker provided over who he replaced" is that not every circumstance across major league baseball and the main reason players get called up? You call someone up because you believe the difference will be better and benefit you more than the current production. You have not mentioned one thing about defense in this entire argument.. and are also comparing what a first baseman can do on offense compared to what a left fielder could provide.. that's an apples to oranges comparison.. If you want to compare those guys, then how much better would the defense be when you talk about AJ Reed vs Tucker? 

 

3) I posted earlier, but it looks like someone has already ran the numbers on this.. It appears that the difference would only be 5-8m.. If they are in a situation where it costs them that much, then that's a GREAT situation for the team.. that means Tucker came out and did what he was supposed to do. Again, you are comparing offensive production with a 1B vs LF.. which is entirely unfair.. 1B is known to have mashers, you have to look at the defensive aspect of it as well.. 

 

You can call me eager, whatever you want to call me... Same thing happened in the Cody Bellinger thread last year.. The same arguments were laid out "but but Super 2".. "But Adrian Gonzalez".. "But Alex Verdugo has better stats".. and look what happened.. Kyle Tucker is an elite baseball talent. Young players are pushed now more than ever.. He has a chance to be special, and if you can't see how it would benefit the Astros team to have him up, Ive got nothin for ya.. 

 

LF is batting .191 and has scored 4 runs through 16 games.. While playing below average defense.. but somehow calling AJ Reed up and replacing Evan Gattis is going to solve that? Interesting.. Jeff Lunhow is one of the best GMs in baseball, I trust he will do what needs to be done. And I can guarantee you one thing, benching Gattis and moving Reed/White into DH is not going to solve the issues in LF. Derek Fisher has been atrocious.. and Marwin will continue playing a utility role for this team. 

 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't even understand what's being argued here. Are we arguing what we as fans think they should do? Or are we as fantasy baseball fans trying to read tea leaves discussing what we think the Astros will do?

 

I mean, I have done this same thing before.... bemoaning a crappy salary structure which encourages teams to hide their best players to maintain cost control. If it was MY decision, Kyle Tucker would be up. He's their best LF option today.

 

Now, if I am asked based on 22 years of fantasy baseball experience what I expect the Houston Astros to do based on my observation of them and how they operate? I am probably 85/15 that its Super-Two or later.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

I don't even understand what's being argued here. Are we arguing what we as fans think they should do? Or are we as fantasy baseball fans trying to read tea leaves discussing what we think the Astros will do?

 

I mean, I have done this same thing before.... bemoaning a crappy salary structure which encourages teams to hide their best players to maintain cost control. If it was MY decision, Kyle Tucker would be up. He's their best LF option today.

 

Now, if I am asked based on 22 years of fantasy baseball experience what I expect the Houston Astros to do based on my observation of them and how they operate? I am probably 85/15 that its Super-Two or later.

 

Anything prior to 2011 is not relevant today.. This team is ran entirely different than when Wade, Purpura, and and Hunsicker were at the helm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, JenksDodger said:

 

Anything prior to 2011 is not relevant today.. This team is ran entirely different than when Wade, Purpura, and and Hunsicker were at the helm. 

 

So, would you say that the current regime has demonstrated a willingness to be aggressive with prospects? I am just curious what you are basing your position that the Astros will call up Tucker so quickly? Just a gut feeling?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

So, would you say that the current regime has demonstrated a willingness to be aggressive with prospects? I am just curious what you are basing your position that the Astros will call up Tucker so quickly? Just a gut feeling?

 

Do you not think Correa was promoted aggressivel and early? Keep in mind when he was the team was quite bad. Yes they waited for super 2 but they promoted him through a few leagues rather quick. Would almost be like the Braves calling up Acuna last September equivalent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Do you not think Correa was promoted aggressivel and early? Keep in mind when he was the team was quite bad. Yes they waited for super 2 but they promoted him through a few leagues rather quick. Would almost be like the Braves calling up Acuna last September equivalent.

 

Correa was a combination of ready and savings... just like Tucker on June 7. Correa also murdered AA. Then slashed his K-rate and did well at AAA. If they don't promote Correa when they did, they gain nothing else unless they wait till mid-April the following year.

 

Acuna started 2017 in Advanced A ball (typically referenced as low minors). Correa started 2015 at AA. Moving 3 levels in one year versus 4 is pretty different, especially when you start at A ball.

 

I would also note that I don't know that the Astros are going to be super willing to toss Derek Fisher to the side two weeks into a season. He was a highly regarded prospect last year in his own right. Is Tucker better? 100% definitely. I just think the Astros are thinking that they can get Tucker some more seasoning, see whether Fisher can get it together, and save 6-8 million dollars in out years where they will be struggling to keep their core together and under the luxury cap. I just think that unless there's an injury... this is the way the team would want to go for a host of reasons.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Houston 9th in OPS in the AL (obviously out of 15 teams). Right in the middle in terms of runs scored in MLB (15th). Meanwhile, Angels lead all of baseball in both categories by a mile. Also hold a 3 game lead on the Stros.

 

Interested to see how things play out here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Correa was a combination of ready and savings... just like Tucker on June 7. Correa also murdered AA. Then slashed his K-rate and did well at AAA. If they don't promote Correa when they did, they gain nothing else unless they wait till mid-April the following year.

 

Acuna started 2017 in Advanced A ball (typically referenced as low minors). Correa started 2015 at AA. Moving 3 levels in one year versus 4 is pretty different, especially when you start at A ball.

 

I would also note that I don't know that the Astros are going to be super willing to toss Derek Fisher to the side two weeks into a season. He was a highly regarded prospect last year in his own right. Is Tucker better? 100% definitely. I just think the Astros are thinking that they can get Tucker some more seasoning, see whether Fisher can get it together, and save 6-8 million dollars in out years where they will be struggling to keep their core together and under the luxury cap. I just think that unless there's an injury... this is the way the team would want to go for a host of reasons.

 

Re: Correa. He murdered AA!!! In 29 games. That's an aggressive af push to aaa after just 29 games. It would have been completely reasonable and overlooked had they waited longer to promote him to AAA and then the majors the next year. 

 

I don't disagree with your opinion on Tucker and the Astros, but I do think there is a chance (not a sure thing) that they promote him without an injury to give the offense a boost.

 

The team already put "Ted" on his locker doing spring training. They like him a lot and want him to be part of the team soon, and fisher and marisnick being awful thus far could push it. From a winning standpoint it didn't seem crazy to me if he would have started the year in the bigs.

 

This whole "they are the world Champs, they should be fine without him until Super 2" is not how teams with short present championship windows operate. Its what you do in a video game or if you're manipulating service time because you can't win this year.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.