taobball

Overall Top 250 Rankings w/ Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc.

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bookmarking/saving this.  will use for sure

 

thanks Tao

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Too low on Buxton.

 

Haven't read the rankings yet. 

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15 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Too low on Buxton.

 

Haven't read the rankings yet. 

Buxton is one of the hardest players to rank in fantasy baseball.

 

Hernan Perez (pretend he's OF), Keon Broxton, Kevin Kiermaier, Tim Anderson (pretend he's OF), Carlos Gomez, David Dahl, Gregory Polanco, AJ Pollock.

 

He'll probably be like one of those guys...but which one?

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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2 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Buxton is one of the hardest players to rank in fantasy baseball.

 

Hernan Perez, Keon Broxton, Kevin Kiermaier, Tim Anderson, Carlos Gomez, David Dahl, Gregory Polanco, AJ Pollock. He'll probably be like one of those guys...but which one?

 

It's a joke from the Buxton thread...

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7 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

It's a joke from the Buxton thread...

Haha it's a good one, promise it didn't go over my head.

 

Oviously his keeper/dynasty league faithful still treat him like a #1 prospect. But without rose-colored lenses, what is he?

 

I own no shares. Probably value him in the Car Gomez range personally, both guys I think can be 15-30 with some K issues but uber potential if things go right (Buxton realizing his potential, CarGomez returning to glory). Also both guys who caught fire at the end of last year.

 

Edit: Tao has 176 (Gomez) v. 250 (Buxton). I probably think that's a little too low on both of them, personally. Sorry to ruin the joke.

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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I'm far more likely to agree on Gomez than Buxton. Buxton though isn't an argument worth having. It's just not my thing to gamble on the hopes and dreams of a former top prospect over guys who I think do have oodles of upside and have shown more progress.. it just isn't. And if Buxton does breakout I'm just a little curious on what it looks like anymore... I just don't see him setting the world on fire to such an extent that he's going to cost

me in a major way. 

 

I did omit Moreland. I removed him purposefully because I thought I listed him twice but just realized that I omitted him and I obviously like Moreland to some extent as I started his thread. 

 

And look, it doesn't matter where I rank Buxton, because he's going at a place that isn't just too rich for me, but it's soooooooo too rich for me that I just can't do it. I ranked Buxton mostly so that people who love him didn't think it was an omission and I'd have the opportunity to talk about him. I'll keep him on as 251 but that's the first thing I have to fix. 

 

Its not just "k" issues with Buxton. Not all Ks are created equal. And before I start, trust me when I say that I believe in mechanical changes and adjustments and I think that's clear from my work because I am ALWAYS far more likely than most people-- er-- in this field?-- to believe in a short term adjustment if I can back it by something a hitter has done and adjustments. So I definitely don't think Buxtons done and gone. But the man has career whiff/swing rates on breaking pitches, changes, and even cutters that border 50%. He misses every other breaking ball. His fastball rate is in the 20s. I just can't invest in that. My body won't let me when there's guys out there like even some of the guys you named above that to me have way stronger profiles and power and speed. And my problem with the guys you listed is that you didn't include any true busts. People who completely fail. Cause that's on the table. 

 

Im a huge fan of watching talent. I am a Cubs fan so I do have a team with a rooting interest that I'm a die hard for but to a large extent I'm someone who just wants to watch someone RISE. To be GREAT. I know this irritates people but it's why I will root for TB12 every super bowl he plays a team I don't give a s--- about. I understand that he's won enough. I want more greatness. I want every player of my generations to be the greatest player of every generation, so believe me when I say I'd love to see Buxton be special, but it is just not my methodology to pay remotely his price on the idea that maybe something works when the results right now are so bad it's comical. 

Edited by taobball
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@taobball if Hernan Perez is better than Buxton, than he's truly finished. I think Hernan is the equivalent of black mold that's been painted over. 

 

Anyways, how do you explain 165 wrc+ in September/October? Do you think that's just BABIP luck/a fluke? He had a healthy BB rate above league average and yes, a horrible k rate still, but he was mashing, no doubt about it. 

 

I'm not particularly a huge Buxton fan, but there comes a time and point when the upside is tantalizing. For me that's in the 150+, maybe 175+ range in redraft. His ADP is 147 per NFBC, so I'm technically either "at" or "slightly below" market, in terms of my perception of him.

 

As for dynasty, I've tried offering things like Matt Shoemaker + a top 100 prospect for him, and the owner was countering for Cespedes, so I'm not even close to the rose-colored lenses Buxton apologist (fwiw, that was obviously the end of trade negotiations).

 

I just find him to be an especially interesting gamble, especially in dynasty/deep keeper formats.

 

In redraft, someone is likely to draft him before me, and gun to my head, I'm taking Car Gomez first.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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this is awesome. can't wait to read through everything. I dug the explanation of how you arrived at the rankings. 

 

I just glanced over the first page w/projections. these seem really good. Neither too conservative nor pipedreams. It will be neat to revisit these at the end of the year. 

 

If I had to pick a "woah!" projection it's probably Trevor Story. That's a bold projection, I'm eager to see if it pans out.

I also think Yelich can double the projected 15. 

 

I'm excited to read the blurbs. thanks for sharing all this with us.

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50 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

@taobball if Hernan Perez is better than Buxton, than he's truly finished. I think Hernan is the equivalent of black mold that's been painted over. 

 

Anyways, how do you explain 165 wrc+ in September/October? Do you think that's just BABIP luck/a fluke? He had a healthy BB rate above league average and yes, a horrible k rate still, but he was mashing, no doubt about it. 

 

I'm not particularly a huge Buxton fan, but there comes a time and point when the upside is tantalizing. For me that's in the 150+, maybe 175+ range in redraft. His ADP is 147 per NFBC, so I'm technically either "at" or "slightly below" market, in terms of my perception of him.

 

As for dynasty, I've tried offering things like Matt Shoemaker + a top 100 prospect for him, and the owner was countering for Cespedes, so I'm not even close to the rose-colored lenses Buxton apologist (fwiw, that was obviously the end of trade negotiations).

 

I just find him to be an especially interesting gamble, especially in dynasty/deep keeper formats.

 

In redraft, someone is likely to draft him before me, and gun to my head, I'm taking Car Gomez first.

 

So when I look for holes in players swings by pitch type or more accurately try to find specific pitches that could potentially overwhelm hitters I typically use about a 20% whiff% as a threshold where I go "this is probably a problem and I need to look into this." Typically if it's even in the ~17.5+ range I at least do enough due dligence if only in raw performance numbers to forecast a problem. Obviously with fastballs the threshold is lower... I don't have as accurate of a number, but I look into double digit whiff% guys on fastballs typically.

 

Here are Buxton's whiff rates by pitch type IN his breakout September: 

4SFB: 11.17%

Sink: 12.00%

Change: 31.43%

Slider: 22.86%

Curve: 15.00%

Cutter: 30.56%

 

and again, these are WHIFF% as in Whiff/Pitch. Not Whiff/Swing.

 

The curveball is the only pitch that I can even remotely argue he improved with in terms of contact, but even that he mostly achieves by simply not swinging at Curves. His whiff/swing on Curves was still 40%. 

 

I used this chart in the Buxton thread for his 2016 Whiff/Swing%:

 

2016 Buxton Whiff/Swing:

4SFB: 24.77%

Sinker: 22.11%

Change: 47.17%

Slider: 47.54%

Curve: 48.72%

Cutter: 47.37%

 

For some reason I think it changed the font but I'm on my phone so bare with me. These are his September metrics from the same resource in the same category:

 

 

2016 Buxton September Whiff/Swing% w/ differential:

4SFB: 25.61% (+0.84)

Sinker: 26.09% (+3.98)

Change: 55.00% (+7.83)

Slider: 47.06% (-0.48%)

Curve: 40.00% (-8.72%)

Cutter: 57.89% (+10.52%)

 

 

 

So unless you wanna make the argument about less than one half of one percent on Sliders, the Curve is the only arguable pitch that Buxton could've improved on in terms of making contact and it's an extremely small sample and even if I were to believe it's legitimate, as referenced earlier, Buxton doesn't swing or didn't swing at Curves a lot that month. It's only 3% under league average, but it is still showing that he doesn't like to swing at Curves and that small sample is the only one to forecast Contact improvement. 

 

Aside from the small sample on Cutters, Buxton has a particular weakness on Change ups, and it's insane to say he has a particular weakness when a strength, at least in this level of analysis, is unidentifiable. 

 

Here re is how I feel about his September more broadly: if you are making an absolute upside projection, September helps make the argument that he has power, so in my low low low percentile outcome for Buxton I've raised his potential power outcome, or at least kept the belief that that's another one of those tools that's in there somewhere. But with no improvements in making contact on pitches and with horrid whiff rates across the board, September added no confidence in my belief he can hit a baseball or make contact at a rate that isn't atrocious. 

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@taobball Whiffs is one part of the equation. Take a look at his ISO in September vs. ISO through August on the problem pitches you identified (slider, change, cutter). Before he really only showed success at the top of the zone, but he showed better plate coverage/power in September.

 

I don't think the swing and miss will leave his game, but I do still think the power/speed is enticing and that he showed legitimate improvements in september, swing and miss notwithstanding. 

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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In retrospect, using iso on a sample that small is probably pointless. All it's really telling us is that, descriptively speaking, he had some success. There's no predictive power in a sample that small.

 

But I do legitimately think that September was more than a BABIP fluke and that Buxton showed a flash of what he could be, enough to keep me interested. Perhaps I'm just another fool sucked in by upside.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

finally you contribute something to this forum

I love how this post has more likes than the actual rankings and projections post.

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16 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Ian Desmond higher than Cargo?

 

Oh without blinking. To use a very basic system for evaluating, take Cargo's last two years and you get 32.5 HRs and 2 SBs. Now Desmond's 2015 wasn't good I'll give you that, but after going 20/20 four of the last five years and playing in Coors this year, Im' going to give him 20/20. So to me, in straight HR+SB, I give the edge to Desmond. People forget that the reason people were out on Desmond so harshly is that Desmond BURNED people in 2015 because he was going around the range I have him in now. Cargo's probably going to hit between .280-.290 but I think Desmond will too. He didn't hit for a high BA in 2014 as well as his stinker 2015, but Desmond's the one going TO Colorado, so I expect a BA bump and not just because of Colorado in general, but as I've said, Desmond's struggles against breaking balls should get an extra bit of masking in Coors. I don't think .300 is out of the question. So I think BA is pretty close to a wash and I don't really feel strongly about giving the edge over one player or the other, but if you made me I would take Desmond. Power+Speed in combination though it really isn't close. So that leaves counting stats, so if CarGo's got the better lineup spot he probably gets more, but they're in the same lineup and it's a stacked lineup so I'm not that worried, and just no gap CarGo has on desmond is going to make up for the fact that I project Desmond to steal ~18 bases without looking. 

 

 

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some buxton propaganda:

 

3.72 s home-to-first, fastest in MLB by RH (FWIW, on the 20-80 scouting scale, a 4.00 time to 1st by a right hander is considered 80 grade speed. This is better than that. Buxton's speed/SB upside is insane).

 

14.05 s inside the park HR v. Sale

 

 

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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It's odd how his terrific speed hasn't translated into base stealing much. Even in the minors I'd expect him to had run more frequently.

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20 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

@taobball Whiffs is one part of the equation. Take a look at his ISO in September vs. ISO through August on the problem pitches you identified (slider, change, cutter). Before he really only showed success at the top of the zone, but he showed better plate coverage/power in September.

 

I don't think the swing and miss will leave his game, but I do still think the power/speed is enticing and that he showed legitimate improvements in september, swing and miss notwithstanding. 

 

5 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

In retrospect, using iso on a sample that small is probably pointless. All it's really telling us is that, descriptively speaking, he had some success. There's no predictive power in a sample that small.

 

But I do legitimately think that September was more than a BABIP fluke and that Buxton showed a flash of what he could be, enough to keep me interested. Perhaps I'm just another fool sucked in by upside.

 

I hate using the term fluke which is why I expressly avoided it in the initial post. Look, a ton of hitters make a lot out of little contact, but the rate at which Buxton did it was absurd by anyone's standards. I can understand how it can be encouraging, but I guess the simplest point is this: if the argument now is "I don't think the swing and miss will leave his game," than the fundamental evaluation of him as a five tool prospect is gone for a large part... because if he's whiffing like mad, I just dont' see the breakout as being so otherworldly compared to other players who could also breakout. That's my whole thing. It's not that I believe Buxton doesn't have upside its that I think a lot of people do and I think the name Buxton is driving his value a TON. 

 

As far as the small samples, I agree on them being too small, but the thing I really don't understand is how they truly show a ton better plate coverage... his ISO's in September were more extremely high but a .16, .200, .250, and .286 are all strong ISOs, and they're low and away whereas the other sections are middle and middle in. The up to August one looks better to me in terms of coverage. 

 

The other thing is that calling them problem pitches wasn't really my point. My point was that every pitch is bad, so I don't think looking at specific pitches is really the key here. The biggest problem especially in this graph is that he was Dreadful on changeups in September when he was killing it but actually really good on them up until August. I don't wanna really say this without looking into it further but I have this hunch that Buxton was guessing fastball a lot and just trying to get fastballs all the time to boost those numbers and that's why he got wiped out by Change ups a lot. 

 

He has crazy speed but even that is a tool as the above mentions that we haven't gotten a chance to witness yet to it's full extent. Base stealing is a lot more than being fast. I always use this and mentioned it in Peraza's blurb but I always reference Hamiltons' first full year compared to his second two. Hamilton's really fast but he got caught 20+ times in that first year. He hasn't gotten caught 20 since then and has stolen around 110+ bases. 

 

Which again, my point being the idea that I'm going to really regret this ranking is the idea that Buxton's breakout is going to be so complete and spectacular and come by storm which it COULD, but it also could come in a category or at one extent and not reach massive numbers.

 

But at this point this discussion really should be in the Buxton Thread. 

 

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3 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

this is awesome. can't wait to read through everything. I dug the explanation of how you arrived at the rankings. 

 

I just glanced over the first page w/projections. these seem really good. Neither too conservative nor pipedreams. It will be neat to revisit these at the end of the year. 

 

If I had to pick a "woah!" projection it's probably Trevor Story. That's a bold projection, I'm eager to see if it pans out.

I also think Yelich can double the projected 15. 

 

I'm excited to read the blurbs. thanks for sharing all this with us.

 

I think Yelich can too, and in my blurb I acknowledge that it wouldn't surprise

me to see Yelich find a completely different level. I love Yelich but when your FB% "spikes" to 20% it's hard to project a ton of power. Still, 30 from Yelich would not surprise me. 

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