taobball

Overall Top 250 Rankings w/ Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc.

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Is Matt Strahm on your list already? Maybe he's worth adding to your list above?

Edited by Dark Kn19ht

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Any chances of an update before this weekend?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

Any chances of an update before this weekend?

 

Maybe on Friday. I'm gonna be heller busy coming up here. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Maybe on Friday. I'm gonna be heller busy coming up here. 

we've noticed :(

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6 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Is Matt Strahm on your list already? Maybe he's worth adding to your list above?

With Karns officially being named the fifth starter will Strahm end up in the bullpen?

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So on Yahoo if you have custom settings if you go to player page and set to "games remaining."  Is that basically your rankings for upcoming year according to your specific settings?  Anyone know this as fact?  Seems like it jives with me but just to make sure I thought I'd ask the forum family.

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Great work here, thanks for the time and effort but I'd really like to get your opinion (and anyone that would like to chime in) on VBD, or value based drafting. I'm a big believer in it in football and can't help but wonder how this philosophy (taking into account position scarcity, etc) can help in getting as much value as possible, especially in the first 60 picks or so.

 

For example, based on VBD alone and using Steamer projections we'd have the following top 7 (I'm leaving out the catcher position for now): Trout, Machado (at SS), Betts, Harper, Arenado, Altuve, Bryant (at OF). Obviously VBD is largely predicated on projections, but isn't there an argument to be made for Machado 2nd? Especially when you consider the difference between he and the 12th ranked SS? You're picking up so much value at the position that it's hard to discount the scarcity aspect. While I "like" Arenado and Altuve more, I can't help but wonder how much VBD should play a factor in overall rankings.

 

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Edited by Sonny_D

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1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:

Great work here, thanks for the time and effort but I'd really like to get your opinion (and anyone that would like to chime in) on VBD, or value based drafting. I'm a big believer in it in football and can't help but wonder how this philosophy (taking into account position scarcity, etc) can help in getting as much value as possible, especially in the first 60 picks or so.

For example, based on VBD alone, based on steamer projections we'd have the following top 7 (I'm leaving out the catcher position for now): Trout, Machado (at SS), Betts, Harper, Arenado, Altuve, Bryant (at OF). Obviously VBD is largely predicated on projections, but isn't there an argument to be made for Machado 2nd. When you consider the difference between he and the 12th ranked SS? You're picking up so much value at the position that it's hard to discount the scarcity aspect. While I "like" Arenado and Altuve more, I can't help but wonder how much VBD should play a factor in overall rankings.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Don't know about "value" stuff.  But Machado vs the 12th ranked SS?  It isn't light years difference since SS is incredibly deep right now.

M Machado, Trea Turner, C Seager, F Lindor, X Bogaerts, T Story, C Correa, F Villar, A Diaz, J Segura, B Miller (how many SS hit 30 homers?), J Gyorko (how many SS hit 30 homers, part 2) = 12 shortstops or shortstop eligible players right there. J Peraza and T Anderson are fine young SS too.  Well in Pereza's case "eligible at SS" this year.

I'd say there is better "value" in taking Goldy, who I'd rank 3rd in your list above and happily kick out the inconsistent  Harper to make room for him.  (Also jam in Kershaw to that list as well).  1B is not as deep for super elites.  Neither is the OF.  And, of course, especially catchers.  I'd argue there is a drop off at 2B as well.  I wouldn't worry about SS or 3B this year.

Personally I don't care abut an individual player's "value" at all.  i care about what I'd call "team build" aka assembling players that compliment each other so I have both enough power and speed etc and gearing the team to max the specific categories of the league I'm playing in.  More like putting together a jigsaw puzzle than looking over a spreadsheet for me.

So to me Goldy plus Trea Turner in the second round or Xander in the third makes more sense than Machado and say Eric Hosmer later on maybe because the elite big 1B bats go pretty quickly at draft time.  Goldy, Rizzo, Miggy, Votto and now Freeman as well then things start to drop off some more quickly than at SS or 3B.  I mean Greg Bird could end up the Trevor Story of this season but you have to gamble some to wait that long.

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21 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

Great work here, thanks for the time and effort but I'd really like to get your opinion (and anyone that would like to chime in) on VBD, or value based drafting. I'm a big believer in it in football and can't help but wonder how this philosophy (taking into account position scarcity, etc) can help in getting as much value as possible, especially in the first 60 picks or so.

 

For example, based on VBD alone and using Steamer projections we'd have the following top 7 (I'm leaving out the catcher position for now): Trout, Machado (at SS), Betts, Harper, Arenado, Altuve, Bryant (at OF). Obviously VBD is largely predicated on projections, but isn't there an argument to be made for Machado 2nd? Especially when you consider the difference between he and the 12th ranked SS? You're picking up so much value at the position that it's hard to discount the scarcity aspect. While I "like" Arenado and Altuve more, I can't help but wonder how much VBD should play a factor in overall rankings.

 

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Scarcity? Last year the 12th ranked SS was not that much worse than the 36th Ranked OF(3 OF format) and for sure the 36th best MI was better than the 60th OF(5 OF, MI format)

 

If you wanna draft based on value. Make sure you actually understand the present day scarcity level.  MI is deep now..

Edited by Slatykamora

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4 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Scarcity? Last year the 12th ranked SS was not that much worse than the 36th Ranked OF(3 OF format) and for sure the 36th best MI was better than the 60th OF(5 OF, MI format)

 

If you wanna draft based on value. Make sure you actually understanding the present day scarcity level.  MI is deep now..

 

No, I know exactly what scarcity means and perhaps I shouldn't have used that word in my example. My point is value. In my example, I'm pointing out specifically the SS position in standard 12 league settings (3 OF). As I said earlier VBD is primarily based on projections, but using Steamer projections we've got Machado at #1 SS and Simien at #12. If you plug in auction $$ to get a base value on overall production, you begin to see the difference in value from #1 ranked position player on down. 

 

I could be wrong, but I see great value in Machado to the 12th ranked SS in Simien when comparing say, the 1B position of Goldy to Hanley (12th ranked 1B). 

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40 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Don't know about "value" stuff.  But Machado vs the 12th ranked SS?  It isn't light years difference since SS is incredibly deep right now.

M Machado, Trea Turner, C Seager, F Lindor, X Bogaerts, T Story, C Correa, F Villar, A Diaz, J Segura, B Miller (how many SS hit 30 homers?), J Gyorko (how many SS hit 30 homers, part 2) = 12 shortstops or shortstop eligible players right there. J Peraza and T Anderson are fine young SS too.  Well in Pereza's case "eligible at SS" this year.

I'd say there is better "value" in taking Goldy, who I'd rank 3rd in your list above and happily kick out the inconsistent  Harper to make room for him.  (Also jam in Kershaw to that list as well).  1B is not as deep for super elites.  Neither is the OF.  And, of course, especially catchers.  I'd argue there is a drop off at 2B as well.  I wouldn't worry about SS or 3B this year.

Personally I don't care abut an individual player's "value" at all.  i care about what I'd call "team build" aka assembling players that compliment each other so I have both enough power and speed etc and gearing the team to max the specific categories of the league I'm playing in.  More like putting together a jigsaw puzzle than looking over a spreadsheet for me.

So to me Goldy plus Trea Turner in the second round or Xander in the third makes more sense than Machado and say Eric Hosmer later on maybe because the elite big 1B bats go pretty quickly at draft time.  Goldy, Rizzo, Miggy, Votto and now Freeman as well then things start to drop off some more quickly than at SS or 3B.  I mean Greg Bird could end up the Trevor Story of this season but you have to gamble some to wait that long.

 

I hear you in the team build concept but I think there's something to be said for trying to gain as much value as possible at specific positions. Especially when building your core through the first 5 or 6 rounds or so. I know you mentioned the difference between 1 to 12 at the SS position isn't light years. But the same could probably be said at the 1B position as well. Well at least according to Steamer projections that is. 

 

Anyway, a lot of the value is based on projections and specific league settings of course. So just trying to get a feel on how people perceive overall value besides just projections vs ADP.

Edited by Sonny_D

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4 hours ago, Bugs bunny said:

So on Yahoo if you have custom settings if you go to player page and set to "games remaining."  Is that basically your rankings for upcoming year according to your specific settings?  Anyone know this as fact?  Seems like it jives with me but just to make sure I thought I'd ask the forum family.

Anyone? Are you all playing blind?  Carbonaro effect?  Have you guys seen my buddy cranges?  Cranges McBasketball?

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57 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Anyone? Are you all playing blind?  Carbonaro effect?  Have you guys seen my buddy cranges?  Cranges McBasketball?

Yes, games remaining stats are based on your league settings.

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1 hour ago, blink said:

Yes, games remaining stats are based on your league settings.

That's huge to know.  Thankyou.   Take some money out of the petty cash. You earned it. 

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4 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

I hear you in the team build concept but I think there's something to be said for trying to gain as much value as possible at specific positions. Especially when building your core through the first 5 or 6 rounds or so. I know you mentioned the difference between 1 to 12 at the SS position isn't light years. But the same could probably be said at the 1B position as well. Well at least according to Steamer projections that is. 

 

Anyway, a lot of the value is based on projections and specific league settings of course. So just trying to get a feel on how people perceive overall value besides just projections vs ADP.

 

I definitely "value based draft" to a certain extent, but I also do as @The Big Bat Theory says with trying to put together a solid team in all categories.  I think effectively drafting a team has to take into account all of these things - ADP, replacement value at that position if you miss out on the top names, and categorical production.  Everything has its limitations on its own, so you just have to try and use info from multiple sources to come up with a consensus.

 

The easiest way to value draft to me is to look at your team build and draft from the back end of the draft to the start, going backwards to fill up your team.  A pretty common strategy is to wait on SP until later, since the later round pitching talent looks deeper than a lot of the other positions.  Ultimately on my spreadsheets I try to identify lower tier options at each position that I'd be OK with owning/starting if I miss out on the top options.  Then if it's my pick in one of the earlier rounds, and the two players I like the best are a SS and a 3B for example, I'll generally take the position that I have fewer late options on that I like.  If that makes sense.  

 

Everyone is drafting "good" players in the first few rounds, and what usually sets the good teams apart is that they were able to plug their roster holes with serviceable players at the back end of the draft. 

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From the sound of this thread not to many people know that.  I used to construct a fake League on ESPN to get my rankings  effectively beforec my drafts but wow Fantrax is pretty damn amazing.    Actually I used to find the draft calculator guys where you just plug in settings and good to go.  They're gone.  Anyways all I have to say is CBS is the absolute worst.  Done with that years ago.  Barkley couldn't even say how terble they are.  Yahoo is right behind them.  Seriously!!! Wow!  If you have been playing in fantasy for over 10-34 years,  how the hell would you still be playing on Yahoo instead of Fantrax?  Just ridiculous.   That's ludicrous,ridiculous and every other thing Jackie would say.  Must be the transactions  trend board .  I'm still on Yahoo for one League.  Feel like trailer trash on that site.  Shoot. You can have all my trophys.  

Back to subject.  Rankings are all hitters this year.  Don't draft Pitchers.  Unless Kershaw.  Don't take a pitcher until Price comes around.  Thankyou for you input.

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8 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

I hear you in the team build concept but I think there's something to be said for trying to gain as much value as possible at specific positions. Especially when building your core through the first 5 or 6 rounds or so. I know you mentioned the difference between 1 to 12 at the SS position isn't light years. But the same could probably be said at the 1B position as well. Well at least according to Steamer projections that is. projections vs ADP.

I don't care what some site says.  To me 1B is not anywhere as deep as SS this year.  There is a major fall off.  And Seiman isn't the #12 SS.  He is below that level.  Maybe 15th or 16th.

4 hours ago, Bugs bunny said:

From the sound of this thread not to many people know that.  I used to construct a fake League on ESPN to get my rankings  effectively beforec my drafts but wow Fantrax is pretty damn amazing.    Actually I used to find the draft calculator guys where you just plug in settings and good to go.  They're gone.  Anyways all I have to say is CBS is the absolute worst.  Done with that years ago.  Barkley couldn't even say how terble they are.  Yahoo is right behind them.  Seriously!!! Wow!  If you have been playing in fantasy for over 10-34 years,  how the hell would you still be playing on Yahoo instead of Fantrax?  Just ridiculous.   That's ludicrous,ridiculous and every other thing Jackie would say.  Must be the transactions  trend board .  I'm still on Yahoo for one League.  Feel like trailer trash on that site.  Shoot. You can have all my trophys.  

Back to subject.  Rankings are all hitters this year.  Don't draft Pitchers.  Unless Kershaw.  Don't take a pitcher until Price comes around.  Thankyou for you input.

Yeah wait for pitching then pounce on David Price.  Worst draft advice of the year.  And the silliest rant above that as well.  I play in Yahoo because I play on good, challenging, highly competitive teams.  I don't play with trailer trash.

handyandy86 is totally right.  Plan the back end first because that is what makes and breaks teams.  Early rounds hardly matter because it all evens out for teams in those rounds.

Live draft rooms with the tight clock is where your late round strategy can work really well.  Go out to the live draft room as soon as it opens and drag your late round people over to the queue and keep an eye on them there.  As long as they and a player or two buffer right before them remain on the board at a position you can ignore that position if you need to and concentrate on other positions.  But when the first of those latter round players goes at a position that is a major heads up to switch strategy for the next round and fill in that position asap.

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13 minutes ago, j14nelson said:

Where's the best rankings for standard ESPN Points leagues? Thanks in advance guys!

Browse this forum, pick some players you think are going to break out because of the info provided, rinse repeat. Also, we used to have a thread that was about players being overvalued and undervalued by ESPN/Yahoo/CBS those are always goldmines. 

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1 hour ago, GratefulPhan said:

forgive me, but how do i see the projected pitching stats on the excel page? can't figure it out, sorry.

He didn't do pitcher projections, just rankings

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Tao, this thread is a treasure to behold. Thanks so much for doing it. I hope you consider doing a tout thread as well for free agent pickups too. 

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3 hours ago, GratefulPhan said:

forgive me, but how do i see the projected pitching stats on the excel page? can't figure it out, sorry.

 

2 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

He didn't do pitcher projections, just rankings

 

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2 hours ago, 33legend said:

Tao, this thread is a treasure to behold. Thanks so much for doing it. I hope you consider doing a tout thread as well for free agent pickups too. 

 

I'll probably stick to this thread for most me related things. We'll see what I can do for this next month but once we get to May I should have a lot of free time

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