Dislimb

2017 Auction Strategies, Values, etc.

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31 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Thanks for the options. Will look into some sort of version of this. We are expanding the active rosters in coming years and am just looking for new ways to keep the league fresh and new. 

Going beyond this down the road, I would have a seperate minor league draft in an ideal setting.  

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On 2/21/2017 at 6:17 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

 

 

Just completed my main league auction on Saturday night, always have some regrets, I think whats always the "what if" that drives you crazy is when you see what guys went for and wonder if you could of got them for $1 more?  Or if the person who eventually got them would of just kept going.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm in some large auction leagues...like 16-20 teams.  I always see owners sitting on money then getting into bidding wars over the last few guys or even guys like Dustin Pedroia.  I guess it goes back to the last few guys in the tier thing.  I would guess that in a local league, especially if it is live, you aren't going to see this as much.  Live actions move slow and are a grind and people tend to get down to business.  I also usually see people leave money on the table which I think is a mistake unless you have a keeper rule and you're killing it with value keepers. 

 

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On 3/7/2017 at 6:02 PM, AnonymousRob said:

 

I've used this the last two years, and found it to be a great, great resource.  I just drafted the team in my sig. below and got some pretty unreal value on some players.  In auctions, no matter what strategy you have, it very rarerly happens - auctions are so fluid based upon what others are bidding.

 

As an example: I very much wanted Alex Bregman.  I purposely didn't offer him till someone did late in the auction when I had a LOT of money & thought for sure I'd get him.  Someone else got him at $15 - way too rich for my blood.  I was hoping to get him around $7-9 and be able to keep him at least for a year or two - not happening.  

Edited by IlliniGuy76

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I've signed up for the last three Yahoo Pro500 roto auctions and none of them filled up and all were deleted. I was allegedly issued a refund for them all but my card hasn't been refunded for any of them yet, which means I have $1500 "in limbo" right now. So annoying, especially since there isn't another $500 scheduled until next Sunday night.

It just goes to show that auctions really aren't all that popular anymore and that's a shame. I'd attempt to start a high stakes auction league on here but I had zero luck doing so last season when I gave it a try. I'm just frustrated because roto scoring and auction drafts are pretty much the only way I like to play fantasy baseball and that seems to be the overwhelming minority these days. Super bummed. :(

Edited by Dislimb

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You never know what your are gonna get come auction time, noticed trend in recent years is that stars go big money, over 55 more up to 65 which leaves a lot of guys with value.  

 

12 teamer - 260 here were some of the head scratchers:

 

Buster Posey 50 we have less teams than the last time he was on open market when he went for 32 coming off his really good year

Chris Archer 32 - thought he would be more of a value this year.  I was targeting him 16-24 range. 

Starling Marte 44 compared to stanton 26 cargo 32 Yelich 22 Jones 16 McCutchen 28 braun 28 cruz 26

 

Crazy values IMO:  Dozier 24 kemp 16  Justin Upton 10  Longoria 6 Troy Tulowitzki 1 Yasmani Tomas 1 ladrian gonzalez 6 - Duval undrafted

 

One of the first calls of the night was Puig, I think guy was trying to slide him early but went for 16, more than Justin Upton.  So part of it is timing.  You cant call your value sleepers unless its someone just you know nobody is gonna want or know too early when people have spots and money to fill.  

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13 team...mixed..5x5...$300 budget...8 keepers

 

Auction was yesterday.  My strategy was to get Kershaw no matter the price to see if I could compete with Kershaw and whatever SP's that I could get to fill out my roster.  I got him for $84.

 

We will see.

 

Unfortunately I lost JD so that may hamper my team just a little :)

 

 

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12 hours ago, parrothead said:

You never know what your are gonna get come auction time, noticed trend in recent years is that stars go big money, over 55 more up to 65 which leaves a lot of guys with value.  

 

12 teamer - 260 here were some of the head scratchers:

 

Buster Posey 50 we have less teams than the last time he was on open market when he went for 32 coming off his really good year

Chris Archer 32 - thought he would be more of a value this year.  I was targeting him 16-24 range. 

Starling Marte 44 compared to stanton 26 cargo 32 Yelich 22 Jones 16 McCutchen 28 braun 28 cruz 26

 

Crazy values IMO:  Dozier 24 kemp 16  Justin Upton 10  Longoria 6 Troy Tulowitzki 1 Yasmani Tomas 1 ladrian gonzalez 6 - Duval undrafted

 

One of the first calls of the night was Puig, I think guy was trying to slide him early but went for 16, more than Justin Upton.  So part of it is timing.  You cant call your value sleepers unless its someone just you know nobody is gonna want or know too early when people have spots and money to fill.  

 

This is fantastic advice in auctions.  Keep those hopeful value picks till later in the draft when you have teams that are already done bidding, or teams with limited funds.  

 

Oddly, David Price was the first pitcher called in our auction and he went up to $10 and the team almost got him.  I had to bid up to $11 and got him at that price.  Yes.  He's had some arm concerns, but (in a $280 league) he's a $25 player... great value!

Edited by IlliniGuy76

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17 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

This is fantastic advice in auctions.  Keep those hopeful value picks till later in the draft when you have teams that are already done bidding, or teams with limited funds.  

 

Oddly, David Price was the first pitcher called in our auction and he went up to $10 and the team almost got him.  I had to bid up to $11 and got him at that price.  Yes.  He's had some arm concerns, but (in a $280 league) he's a $25 player... great value!

He was called early in ours too and was a good bargain assuming he doesnt miss too much time, which he may very well not.  We will see. 

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20 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

This is fantastic advice in auctions.  Keep those hopeful value picks till later in the draft when you have teams that are already done bidding, or teams with limited funds.  

 

Oddly, David Price was the first pitcher called in our auction and he went up to $10 and the team almost got him.  I had to bid up to $11 and got him at that price.  Yes.  He's had some arm concerns, but (in a $280 league) he's a $25 player... great value!

Just remember that your value picks or "sleepers" that you have your eye on towards the end game, may also be the infatuation of another owner as well.  So it's always a good idea to bring that guy out when there are still a few alternatives that you wouldn't mind having instead, if the price gets too high.  

 

For example, I had my NL-Only auction this weekend...now it's a keeper league, so inflation is differently in play.  I believe the inflation rate was around 35% before the first player was thrown out.  So Brandon Maurer was one of my keepers and I had Carter Capps tabbed as an end game target for me (I know in these types of settings, Capps hardly qualifies as a sleeper), but with the budget I had available at the draft and the fact that I had Maurer, I was willing to pay about $8 for Capps.  Figuring that would be the price that I would have to pay and it wouldn't make sense for anyone to really pay more than that considering they don't have Maurer and Capps may start the season on the DL.  Well one guy saved his last $12 for Capps and I wasn't willing to pay that kind of price for Capps.  So instead I ended up with a $3 Daniel Hudson and $1 Koda Glover.  (Closer situation in an NL-Only is really ugly this year).

 

Moral of this is don't back yourself into a corner where you have to get your "value pick" or you are stuck with someone you really don't want.  

Edited by PepperPot

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Where does everyone like to get their auction values from? I'm using the steamer projections off fan graphs.

 

This is my first year doing auction, so I cant say for certain if something is wrong, but this just feels out of place and I'm wondering if I should look else where. 

 

Why is David Dahl calculated as a $1.00 player? This worries me that the values are out of whack. I mean it is a 15 team OBP Roto with 5 keepers per team but I feel like that would make Dahl more expensive. I mean, steamer has him at 107 RBI+R and 14HR 12 SB. Really? $1.00?

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25 minutes ago, tscherrer2 said:

Where does everyone like to get their auction values from? I'm using the steamer projections off fan graphs.

 

This is my first year doing auction, so I cant say for certain if something is wrong, but this just feels out of place and I'm wondering if I should look else where. 

 

Why is David Dahl calculated as a $1.00 player? This worries me that the values are out of whack. I mean it is a 15 team OBP Roto with 5 keepers per team but I feel like that would make Dahl more expensive. I mean, steamer has him at 107 RBI+R and 14HR 12 SB. Really? $1.00?

Could be that he is hurt right now, so that his value has dropped would be my guess

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10 hours ago, tscherrer2 said:

Where does everyone like to get their auction values from? I'm using the steamer projections off fan graphs.

 

This is my first year doing auction, so I cant say for certain if something is wrong, but this just feels out of place and I'm wondering if I should look else where. 

 

Why is David Dahl calculated as a $1.00 player? This worries me that the values are out of whack. I mean it is a 15 team OBP Roto with 5 keepers per team but I feel like that would make Dahl more expensive. I mean, steamer has him at 107 RBI+R and 14HR 12 SB. Really? $1.00?

Auction values on any site are just for show.  Every league values players differently.  Don't get so enamored or dependent on any "experts" player valuations.  

 

Figure out what you think your team will need stat-wise to compete and get the players that will attain those stats.  It's really that simple.

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If you are a regular auction drafter, no matter how often for how many years, etch this into stone: don't bypass great players for less money to save and get your player a little later. Unless you are the least reasonable person in the room or drunk you can easily end up with neither. 

Also don't let your guy be the last player in a tier with a noticeable divide because you'll have to overpay to get him.  

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Wish I'd seen this thread before my auction drafts. I love auctions too and much prefer them, it's the way to draft nowadays with no player unattainable.

 

Some of my best auction picks in my main draft were: Moose ($3), S Perez ($3) Morales ($9), Altuve ($42), C Santana ($23 - OBP league). And that's with cheap keepers also held so inflation hits all drafted players.

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I like morales pick, santana not that much, would like freeman or ee for 6,7$ more

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I kept Kershaw for $70 last year.  I came in 2nd and lost the title on the last day.  My point is that it's ok to overpay to get studs, especially in keeper leagues when you have a good keeper list..

Edited by Chuckles

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57 minutes ago, Chuckles said:

I kept Kershaw for $70 last year.  I came in 2nd and lost the title on the last day.  My point is that it's ok to overpay to get studs, especially in keeper leagues when you have a good keeper list..

I tend to agree, especially if that high priced keeper coincides with what your draft plan is, so like if your plan is "get Kershaw" then keeping him at market value, high price isnt that bad because it gives you some staibility in the price going in.  

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15 hours ago, PepperPot said:

Just remember that your value picks or "sleepers" that you have your eye on towards the end game, may also be the infatuation of another owner as well.  So it's always a good idea to bring that guy out when there are still a few alternatives that you wouldn't mind having instead, if the price gets too high.  

 

For example, I had my NL-Only auction this weekend...now it's a keeper league, so inflation is differently in play.  I believe the inflation rate was around 35% before the first player was thrown out.  So Brandon Maurer was one of my keepers and I had Carter Capps tabbed as an end game target for me (I know in these types of settings, Capps hardly qualifies as a sleeper), but with the budget I had available at the draft and the fact that I had Maurer, I was willing to pay about $8 for Capps.  Figuring that would be the price that I would have to pay and it wouldn't make sense for anyone to really pay more than that considering they don't have Maurer and Capps may start the season on the DL.  Well one guy saved his last $12 for Capps and I wasn't willing to pay that kind of price for Capps.  So instead I ended up with a $3 Daniel Hudson and $1 Koda Glover.  (Closer situation in an NL-Only is really ugly this year).

 

Moral of this is don't back yourself into a corner where you have to get your "value pick" or you are stuck with someone you really don't want.  

Yep, this is a good one too.  Can still remember this like yesterday, anyone remember the name Jeff Clement?  I think it was 2009, word at auction time was he was gonna be the mariners DH for 2009, and he had C eligibility.  So I held off and held off and held off on my 2nd C, there were only like 3 teams left still with spots, only 2 of us needed a c and the guy who was left needing a C was one of the "show up with a mag" guys, and Clement and his situation was not in a mag, so I thought I was golden.  Ended up paying like $18 for him, because he was the only guy left and turned out this guy was waiting on him too.  He ended up not even making the roster in 2009.  

 

So you sort of need to feel out the room, dont call the sleepers too early when everyones rosters are open and everyone has some walking around money, but if you get the sense maybe there are 3-4 guys left on a tier people are down in their dollars, not that many teams need a guy.  You may want to call then.  One thing that can happen to you and its just bad luck is the moron who doesnt spend his money has a bunch of money at the end and the sleeper you should be getting cheap, he poaches and overpays, when he should of gotten a star 2 hours earlier. 

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One thing I have found useful over the years is to calculate your "overpay fund" as you make each of your bids. Auction drafts are tough and it's tricky to manage at times but assuming you have a good grasp on the player universe for your league and what players represent a reasonable replacement level it can be useful way of spending to grab the best remaining players. As you make each pick any excess value you get you scribble down somewhere (ex. I got Verlander for $13 and I projected him to about $16 so +$3 savings to me) That number is added or subtracted to depending on how you spend. If the number gets high 1) great you've got some deals but 2) don't leave money on the table or 3) if the number is low have a few $1 contingencies you are happy with. Over paying doesn't matter at the middle to end of your draft so push that judiciously for the later players you are most desirous of acquiring. In my case I used my overpay fund to get Jake Lamb and Willson Contreras later and beat aggressive bidders who were also targeting them. 

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1 hour ago, Pap said:

I like morales pick, santana not that much, would like freeman or ee for 6,7$ more

You're right Freddie went for bang on $30. But I'm not totally sold on his one year breakthrough, and the Indians lineup is far superior to Braves. E5 went for $32, again a bit cheaper than I anticipated.

 

With keepers I expected the inflation to be far greater than it turned out, allowing me to get Mad-Bum for $35. Though Trout ($67) and Goldy ($57) were crazy prices, the others really weren't. Although closers went for insane amounts ($15-20) for mid tier closers, so I skipped those and had to settle with the Ryan Madson's of this world for around $7-8.

Edited by swfcdan

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15 hours ago, PepperPot said:

Just remember that your value picks or "sleepers" that you have your eye on towards the end game, may also be the infatuation of another owner as well.  So it's always a good idea to bring that guy out when there are still a few alternatives that you wouldn't mind having instead, if the price gets too high.  

 

For example, I had my NL-Only auction this weekend...now it's a keeper league, so inflation is differently in play.  I believe the inflation rate was around 35% before the first player was thrown out.  So Brandon Maurer was one of my keepers and I had Carter Capps tabbed as an end game target for me (I know in these types of settings, Capps hardly qualifies as a sleeper), but with the budget I had available at the draft and the fact that I had Maurer, I was willing to pay about $8 for Capps.  Figuring that would be the price that I would have to pay and it wouldn't make sense for anyone to really pay more than that considering they don't have Maurer and Capps may start the season on the DL.  Well one guy saved his last $12 for Capps and I wasn't willing to pay that kind of price for Capps.  So instead I ended up with a $3 Daniel Hudson and $1 Koda Glover.  (Closer situation in an NL-Only is really ugly this year).

 

Moral of this is don't back yourself into a corner where you have to get your "value pick" or you are stuck with someone you really don't want.  

 

Yes - this is also great advice... hold onto your value picks till later, but have an alternative you are OK/comfortable with.  

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Got my big auction tomorrow morning. Excited and nervous at the same time. It seems like the top guys' prices are inflated just a bit more than they normally are this year.

Edited by Dislimb

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Been a member of an AL only auction/keeper league for years now, but past years my prep has been pretty poor pre-auction.

 

How do you all generally adjust your estimates for inflation for cheap keepers? For sure in my league I know we have a $1.00 Darvish, $5 Mookie, $5 Bregman, Sanchez, Hamels, Quintana, Verlander, etc...

 

Trying to determine how much I should plan to increase my budget for the remaining players based on the $$ saved on the keepers. I know it will vary somewhat league to league, but any suggestions?

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You shuld really try mr.cheatsheet's auction spredsheet, put in keepers and you should get some rough idea

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Just had my first auction. In spite of knowing that this is the classic rookie mistake, I made it.

 

Unusually for me, I had a plan, which was to take all flyers and innings fillers at SP and load up on offense and bullpen. I got the pen I wanted right at the price I wanted. I got a ton of bargains on offense, at least by my estimates. I headed into the last quarter of the auction prepared to spend about $32 to fill my last 3 OF spots, but got guys I liked for only $22.  

 

So, rather than adjust, and take better SPs and have an awesome team, my brain froze and I wound up leaving about $15 on the table. 

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