osb_tensor

Yasiel Puig 2017 Outlook

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surprisingly, i couldn't find a 2017 outlook topic...

this guy is a headcase, but he's got the talent to put up gaudy, all-star style numbers. what number of AB are we expecting him to get with the Dodgers this season? roberts has went out and said he views puig as the starting right fielder, and the job is his to lose. is this coach-speak or something to actually believe in?

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/216464424/dodgers-eye-yasiel-puig-as-right-fielder/

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-yasiel-puig-outfield-20170217-story.html

also, i think i read somewhere that he lost some weight this offseason.. can't find the article though.

what ADP does he return value? 225-250? i'm eyeing him at about that range, but maybe i'm too optimistic..

Edited by osb_tensor

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This is the guy who is most likely to suddenly be great to me. He seems to be on the Jason Heyward what-happened-to-my-swing path however. His eye isn't bad, his contact rates are decent but his iso continues to suffer and his lessening playing time helps none of these things. A all-hustle ST with some mechanical tweaks would be really nice. He's essentially a $1 player with $2 or $3 dollar inflation if someone still bets upside. 20/10 .275 seems attainable then again he might be better off being someone else's problem. I'm considering him for a last outfield or bench spot.

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Crowded OF....

 

Right-handed:

  • Puig
  • Thompson
  • Van Slyke
  • Gutierrez
  • Hernandez (utl)

 

Left-handed:

  • Ethier
  • Pederson
  • Toles

 

If all of these guys are healthy it's not a stretch to perhaps see a platoon at every OF position. 

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14 minutes ago, Homerj24 said:

Crowded OF....

 

Right-handed:

  • Puig
  • Thompson
  • Van Slyke
  • Gutierrez
  • Hernandez (utl)

 

Left-handed:

  • Ethier
  • Pederson
  • Toles

 

If all of these guys are healthy it's not a stretch to perhaps see a platoon at every OF position. 

so you're saying that roberts' comments are just coach-speak and puig isn't really viewed as the starter?

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I don't think you can count out Cody Bellinger as a possible Dodgers OF in the near future

 

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Seems a lot like Pederson if you watch his AB. Lot of holes for pitchers to exploit and unless he changed (Didn't watch him that close after his minor stint last year) his plate discipline wasn't that great.

 

Was a player that could have benefited from more time on the minors but got off to that insanely hot start to his MLB career. 

 

But even where his current ADP is, at least for me, he is someone else's problem.

 

Can anyone think of a player that fell that far so quick?  Going from an early 2nd/late first round to where even as a lottery ticket in a twelve team league you shy away

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5 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

so you're saying that roberts' comments are just coach-speak and puig isn't really viewed as the starter?

 

I'm saying that there are a lot of mouths to feed. I agree with @brockpapersizer when he says that SVS and Thompson are probably on the outside looking in from that group. But even with those guys gone, it's still crowded. Roberts also said that he doesn't see Pederson as a platoon CF'er even though Joc hit 0.125 vs lefties last season. I anticipate a lot of mixing and matching again. Of all guys, Yasiel is the one guy that I could see earning full-time at bats. If he continues to hit like he has the past two seasons, however, I could see some of these other guys eating into his PT. 

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5 minutes ago, Homerj24 said:

 

I'm saying that there are a lot of mouths to feed. I agree with @brockpapersizer when he says that SVS and Thompson are probably on the outside looking in from that group. But even with those guys gone, it's still crowded. Roberts also said that he doesn't see Pederson as a platoon CF'er even though Joc hit 0.125 vs lefties last season. I anticipate a lot of mixing and matching again. Of all guys, Yasiel is the one guy that I could see earning full-time at bats. If he continues to hit like he has the past two seasons, however, I could see some of these other guys eating into his PT. 

 

Was listening to Flags Fly Forever this morning and they discussed Puig and made a good point.

 

Dodgers front office prefers not to waste an asset. I think Puig is going to get full time ABs in RF to start, and if he plays himself out of it, I think he gets traded quick. For real this time.

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33 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Was listening to Flags Fly Forever this morning and they discussed Puig and made a good point.

 

Dodgers front office prefers not to waste an asset. I think Puig is going to get full time ABs in RF to start, and if he plays himself out of it, I think he gets traded quick. For real this time.

this is probably the best answer anyone can give right now.. and it lines up with what roberts' said.

it's his job to lose.. 

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7 hours ago, jb_power said:

I don't think you can count out Cody Bellinger as a possible Dodgers OF in the near future

 

Probably going to happen sooner than later. Bellinger is the real deal and already one of the games top prospects. Depending on Gonzo's light injury, Cody could make the opening day roster.

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18 hours ago, lavaman said:

Probably going to happen sooner than later. Bellinger is the real deal and already one of the games top prospects. Depending on Gonzo's light injury, Cody could make the opening day roster.

 

The most recent Gonzo report has the elbow feeling 'pain free'. Sounds like he is still a go for the WBC. He has 3 games in AAA. He'll start there.  

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On 2/22/2017 at 11:07 AM, Low and Away said:

Seems a lot like Pederson if you watch his AB. Lot of holes for pitchers to exploit and unless he changed (Didn't watch him that close after his minor stint last year) his plate discipline wasn't that great.

 

Was a player that could have benefited from more time on the minors but got off to that insanely hot start to his MLB career. 

 

But even where his current ADP is, at least for me, he is someone else's problem.

 

Can anyone think of a player that fell that far so quick?  Going from an early 2nd/late first round to where even as a lottery ticket in a twelve team league you shy away

 

What's his current ADP?

 

I think people fall into a trap in thinking that the back half of their draft is more important than it is.  I look at my team at the end of the year and I tend to have about half the players I drafted.  I'm lucky to retain 2 players I drafted anywhere after pick 150.

 

So, if Puig's ADP is around 200?  Why not?  You know who I picked just before and just after that pick last year?  Luis Severion & Steven Souza Jr.  Meh.  You're basically just playing lotto tickets at that point anyway, so may as well play the ticket with the biggest potential payout.

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Twelve team his has been drafted around 230.  There are at least to me better choices at that point. Took Beltran just before him

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

What's his current ADP?

 

I think people fall into a trap in thinking that the back half of their draft is more important than it is.  I look at my team at the end of the year and I tend to have about half the players I drafted.  I'm lucky to retain 2 players I drafted anywhere after pick 150.

 

So, if Puig's ADP is around 200?  Why not?  You know who I picked just before and just after that pick last year?  Luis Severion & Steven Souza Jr.  Meh.  You're basically just playing lotto tickets at that point anyway, so may as well play the ticket with the biggest potential payout.

 

I read a comprehensive study a few years back that translated each round in a yahoo snake draft into auction dollars based on the value of the pick. After the first ~13-15 picks (don't recall the cut off) the last 8 rounds or so are all essentially $1 players. The first 10 rounds of your draft will make or break your fantasy season.

 

My biggest issue isn't whether I believe Puig can bounceback or not .. it's that his eligibility is at a very premium position. I spend a ton of 'draft dollars' (high draft picks) on 5-cat outfielders early, and fill my bench with high upside SPs and CL .. so won't have much room at the position to take a flier on him. 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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With Puig, it's all about the at bats.  If he gets 500+, he can't help but be a productive fantasy OF2-OF4.  But between his hamstrings and his relationship with management, that is a big if.  However, I consider the supposed OF depth on LaD a bit overblown, most of the supposed competition are bums.

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20 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Twelve team his has been drafted around 230.  There are at least to me better choices at that point. Took Beltran just before him

 

Without knowing who else was/is available at pick 230 a guy like Puig is usually a guy I take a chance on there.   Won't kill me if he misses but there's tons of upside.

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On 2/24/2017 at 1:13 PM, 96mnc said:

 

Without knowing who else was/is available at pick 230 a guy like Puig is usually a guy I take a chance on there.   Won't kill me if he misses but there's tons of upside.

This.  He's a bench stash, OF4/5, and a late round flier that could pay off huge dividends.  SHOULD.  Could. Might.  But cheap

 

same can be said of Carlos Gomez IMO

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16 minutes ago, midlip said:

This.  He's a bench stash, OF4/5, and a late round flier that could pay off huge dividends.  SHOULD.  Could. Might.  But cheap

 

same can be said of Carlos Gomez IMO

 

I don't doubt the upside near as much with Gomez as I do puig. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I don't doubt the upside near as much with Gomez as I do puig. 

I have a penchant for post-hype guys that either had a down year, coming back from injury, or are being over-corrected because there's a shinier toy out there 

 

given your much more in-depth analysis, i look forward to your deeper dive on Puig if you have the time... 

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8 minutes ago, midlip said:

I have a penchant for post-hype guys that either had a down year, coming back from injury, or are being over-corrected because there's a shinier toy out there 

 

given your much more in-depth analysis, i look forward to your deeper dive on Puig if you have the time... 

 

And I will do it at some point whether it be this week or not but just what tool do you look at and go "I want to take a shot on this guy" because like.. it's not even like Buxton where the positives are just overwhelmed by disgusting negatives.... I just doubt what the potential is at this point. 

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1 hour ago, midlip said:

I have a penchant for post-hype guys that either had a down year, coming back from injury, or are being over-corrected because there's a shinier toy out there 

 

But how does Puig even fit into any of these categories?  He has sucked for way more than a year now.  His injuries always seem to be hamstring pulls and the ilk which will return year after year because he is too lazy to learn how to become more flexible.  And a shinier toy could be a Carlos Beltran.  Doesn't have to be the new kid on the block.  Almost anyone, young or old, is better than Puig.  Add in that he will probably not play full time and have to share his position some this year and why would anyone care about him?  I mean really?  Why?  There are better late round sleepers than this guy.

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32 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But how does Puig even fit into any of these categories?  He has sucked for way more than a year now.  His injuries always seem to be hamstring pulls and the ilk which will return year after year because he is too lazy to learn how to become more flexible.  And a shinier toy could be a Carlos Beltran.  Doesn't have to be the new kid on the block.  Almost anyone, young or old, is better than Puig.  Add in that he will probably not play full time and have to share his position some this year and why would anyone care about him?  I mean really?  Why?  There are better late round sleepers than this guy.

 

I'll copy and paste from the other thread because i don't want to become a card-carrying member of the Puig fanclub like i ended up being for JBJ...

 

2013. ;)

 

In all honesty, I get what you're saying and i'm NOT saying "i need this guy" but I look at OF's in roughly his ADP and think is upside warrants more attention than these boring hitters with glaring holes:

Jacoby Ellsbury

Curtis Granderson

Melky Cabrera

Jason Heyward

Matt Holiday 

 

Add in the fact that he appears to have the starting job and will be given the chance again to shine or fail and I'm intrigued.

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2 minutes ago, midlip said:

 

I'll copy and paste from the other thread because i don't want to become a card-carrying member of the Puig fanclub like i ended up being for JBJ...

 

2013. ;)

 

In all honesty, I get what you're saying and i'm NOT saying "i need this guy" but I look at OF's in roughly his ADP and think is upside warrants more attention than these boring hitters with glaring holes:

Jacoby Ellsbury

Curtis Granderson

Melky Cabrera

Jason Heyward

Matt Holiday 

 

Add in the fact that he appears to have the starting job and will be given the chance again to shine or fail and I'm intrigued.

 

But I guess what is his upside toyou? Like a realistic ceiling? 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

But I guess what is his upside toyou? Like a realistic ceiling? 

 

A realistic amount of ABs have to be around 500 since saying he stays healthy all year and gets the full compliment of at-bats is unrealistic, this is also assuming he maintains STARTER status all year ...i could see him getting:

 

75/22/80/10/.275

 

you're telling me that's impossible? 

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