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Ffguy0087

Doug Baldwin 2017 Season Outlook

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8f31067c-adb9-11e5-bd0a-bf7b612abc49-780

 

2016 Stats

Targets: 125

Receptions: 94

Yards: 1,128

YPR: 12.0

Touchdowns: 7

 

He's clearly established himself as not only Seattle's best weapon in their pass attack, but as one of the more productive and reliable receivers in the NFL.

 

Here's to another great year from #89. Go Hawks!

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He's an early candidate to be overdrafted but if he survives the offseason with no big shake ups, he should be ready to get back to WR1/2 status.

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36 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

He's an early candidate to be overdrafted but if he survives the offseason with no big shake ups, he should be ready to get back to WR1/2 status.

 

He's been a top-10 WR 2 straight years and is in the prime of his career. Only AB, Julio and OBJ have outperformed him over that time period. 

 

Any ADP that has him outside the top-8 WRs is too low. 

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8 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's been a top-10 WR 2 straight years and is in the prime of his career. Only AB, Julio and OBJ have outperformed him over that time period. 

 

Any ADP that has him outside the top-8 WRs is too low. 

My only fear is that Seattle drafts a more dominant perimeter threat. That would seriously damage his value IMO.
Regardless, I'm under the belief that Russ has a down year so I think this offense as a whole will come back stronger. I think they run their offense better with Prosise in the backfield.

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As a hawks fan, OL is obviously the biggest priority but i think they will also go DT, CB, and LB before they take a WR. Concerning Baldwin and his fantasy production, he's been #8 in ppr 2 years in a row, and most importantly, he's been hot both years during the fantasy playoffs, and i think he'll continue to be productive for several more years

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12 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

My only fear is that Seattle drafts a more dominant perimeter threat. That would seriously damage his value IMO.
Regardless, I'm under the belief that Russ has a down year so I think this offense as a whole will come back stronger. I think they run their offense better with Prosise in the backfield.

 

Seattle better be throwing resources at OL and CB.

 

Between a now healthy Richardson and a hopefully healthy Lockett there's no reason to target a WR unless one falls late.

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44 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Seattle better be throwing resources at OL and CB.

 

Between a now healthy Richardson and a hopefully healthy Lockett there's no reason to target a WR unless one falls late.

You're most likely right. 
Their receivers mostly replicate New England. If they see their Malcolm Mitchell in the 3rd or 4th, they'll probably pounce. 
With Graham in the twilight of his career despite a decent bounce back, it's fair to wonder if they want another big body more than outsiders may think.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

He's been a top-10 WR 2 straight years and is in the prime of his career. Only AB, Julio and OBJ have outperformed him over that time period. 

 

Show all math please.

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Just now, FFCollusion said:

 

Show all math please.

 

Help yourself...choose PPR since that's the format you use. Those are the only 3 with more FFL points over the past 2 yrs at the WR position. You seem salty over undervaluing him last year...

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37 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

You're most likely right. 
Their receivers mostly replicate New England. If they see their Malcolm Mitchell in the 3rd or 4th, they'll probably pounce. 
With Graham in the twilight of his career despite a decent bounce back, it's fair to wonder if they want another big body more than outsiders may think.

 

When has NE had a top-10 WR in the past 4 years? 

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5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Help yourself...choose PPR since that's the format you use. Those are the only 3 with more FFL points over the past 2 yrs at the WR position. You seem salty over undervaluing him last year...

I always undervalue statistical outliers and 1 year wonders.  Now that he's done it twice, I'll undervalue him slightly less ;)

 

You're the one who constantly adds stipulations to your data sets, so please share which parameters you used this time in order to fit your narrative, and we can move on.  Show and define all math you used to make this claim.  If you can't back up your claims, then what good are they?

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's been a top-10 WR 2 straight years and is in the prime of his career. Only AB, Julio and OBJ have outperformed him over that time period. 

 

Any ADP that has him outside the top-8 WRs is too low. 

+ DeAndre Hopkins (528.5 vs 522.5)

+ Larry Fitzgerald (525.4 vs 522.5)

 

Of course, that's leaving out Jordy Nelson (50 more points than Baldwin in 2016)/AJ Green solely because of their injuries, and Michael Thomas for being a rookie.  

 

(For the record, using full 16 game seasons for all players, since it makes no sense to leave valid data points for their performance over the last 2 years).

2015 season

2016 season

Work: Added totals of players that outscored Baldwin in at least one of the two seasons to see if they outperformed him over both. 

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40 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I always undervalue statistical outliers and 1 year wonders.  Now that he's done it twice, I'll undervalue him slightly less ;)

 

You're the one who constantly adds stipulations to your data sets, so please share which parameters you used this time in order to fit your narrative, and we can move on.  Show and define all math you used to make this claim.  If you can't back up your claims, then what good are they?

 

The key is to find the stars before they break out. Sometimes you get CJA 2015, others you get AB 2014-16, DJ, Baldwin, and Hilton 2016. 

 

Not hard to support my prior claim: total FFL points in 2015 and 2016 among WRs. 

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Not hard to support my prior claim: total FFL points in 2015 and 2016 among WRs. 

If it's not hard, why have you screwed it up twice already?

 

Larry.png

 

And now after being proven wrong, again, here come the stipulations to try and dispute it, as predicted.  Thus why I asked for them, before you insisted we waste everyone's time.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

When has NE had a top-10 WR in the past 4 years? 

In fantasy? Why look no further than Julian Edelman last year.

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2 hours ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

In fantasy? Why look no further than Julian Edelman last year.

 

Edelman wasn't close to top-10 last yr. He was barely top-20 despite getting 150+ targets. 

 

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53 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Edelman wasn't close to top-10 last yr. He was barely top-20 despite getting 150+ targets. 

 

I should have been more specific. By last season I meant 15-16. When he was WR7 on average.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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Doug Baldwin:

Games with under 6 fantasy points: 7

Games with under 10 fantasy points: 11

 

Allen Robinson:

Games with under 6 fantasy points: 7

Games with under 10 fantasy points:11

 

Take it as you will. HIs season was a bigger disappointment than most people might think. Had 3 huge games to skew his stats but otherwise he was a fat let down. A lot of people probably didn't even start him in the 3 TD game or 170 yard game because everything leading up to it was practically dog s---.

Edited by Gohawks
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7 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

The key is to find the stars before they break out. Sometimes you get CJA 2015, others you get AB 2014-16, DJ, Baldwin, and Hilton 2016. 

 

Not hard to support my prior claim: total FFL points in 2015 and 2016 among WRs. 

 
 

No the key to winning is to nail your top picks and get steals later.

 

Finding a star is drafting D.J his rookie year, Baldwin 2 years back, Allen Robinson 2 years back, Freeman 2 years back, and etc. It's not drafting D.J this year, Baldwin this year, and whoever else broke out the year previous that is now going in the draft like they have been doing it for years. Don't get confused mate.

Edited by Gohawks
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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Doug Baldwin:

Games with under 6 fantasy points: 7

Games with under 10 fantasy points: 11

 

Allen Robinson:

Games with under 6 fantasy points: 7

Games with under 10 fantasy points:11

 

Take it as you will. HIs season was a bigger disappointment than most people might think. Had 3 huge games to skew his stats but otherwise he was a fat let down. A lot of people probably didn't even start him in the 3 TD game or 170 yard game because everything leading up to it was practically dog s---.

 

Standard? 

 

If so, then yes, when you take away the points from his 94 receptions, Baldwin was average. He still had 1,100 yards and 7 TDs though. 

 

I know I started him for his 3 TD game at NE. Anyone who didn't deserved to watch him go off on their bench. You always start an opposing No.1 WR at NE because that team figures to be playing from behind or playing in a shootout.

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13 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Show all math please.

Historical stats, especially when it comes to wrs, not his strength.

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He's a solid wr2 that can keep you in the game, especially for the rb-early drafters.

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4 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

Standard? 

 

If so, then yes, when you take away the points from his 94 receptions, Baldwin was average. He still had 1,100 yards and 7 TDs though. 

 

I know I started him for his 3 TD game at NE. Anyone who didn't deserved to watch him go off on their bench. You always start an opposing No.1 WR at NE because that team figures to be playing from behind or playing in a shootout.

Consistency is so overlooked in this forum it is ridiculous.

 

Give me 15, 15, 15, 15, and 15 over 0, 0, 31, 31, and 2 any damn day. The problem with players that experience extreme inconsistency is you end up sitting the player during his huge games. That and he loses you a ton of weeks.

 

Also, you say anyone that didn't start him vs NE deserved to see him go off. That is the biggest BS I have heard. Few weeks prior he put up 5 points against NO and 3 points against ATL. Previous 5 weeks he averaged 5.9 fantasy points. 10.7 in full PPR. Which over a full season would put him at WR 51. So no those people that benched him did not deserve to see him go off. Unless you are saying NO and ATL are worse opponents fantasy wise and even then that argument wouldn't hold much water. 

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I don't know if @jbshaw used his mod powers to sneak those stats in after the fact, but I definitely don't recall seeing them before I posted yesterday.
Anywho, I already had the first one, added the second one when @Gohawks mentioned consistency, despite knowing he meant in a weekly manner, but it made me curious how many WRs have consistently been producing over the past 3 years.

 

The first is the 2 year cumulative PPR fantasy points for every WR who finished top 50 in both 2015 and 2016.
Total of 26, sorted by total points, weeks 1-17, created and assembled by myself, pulled from FFToday.

2_Year.png

 

The second is the 3 year cumulative PPR fantasy points for every WR who finished top 50 in all 3 years; 2014, 2015, 2016.

Total of 18 sorted by total fantasy points, weeks 1-17, created and assembled by myself, pulled from FFToday.

3_Year.png

 

Keep in mind, these only account for finishing top 50 all 3 years, so there are players who potentially have more points in 2 years, or from a 51+ finish in a single year that would be on the list if it didn't have a cutoff.  For example Larry Fitz finished 51st in 2014, with 153 points, for a 3 year cumulative of ~684 but didn't make the list.

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