Ffguy0087

Doug Baldwin 2017 Season Outlook

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I picked him up when he broke in '15, but what I didn't like was that a lot of his TDs were vs air. Still, he went off three times & provided very good production on two other occasions. Apart from that though, he didn't once provide what I consider complement scoring (10 pts-standard). Considerable TD regression, does that turn back around or does the slide continue? 

Edited by markrc99

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2 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

I picked him up when he broke in '15, but what I didn't like was that a lot of his TDs were vs air. Still, he went off three times & provided very good production on two other occasions. Apart from that though, he didn't once provide what I consider complement scoring (10 pts-standard). Considerable TD regression, does that turn back around or does the slide continue? 

 

Without doing a deep dive into the metrics his TD production last year was just regression to his normal level of production.  2015 was the outlier.  I'm guessing stats analysis will probably project him for 8 or 9 in 2017.

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't know if @jbshaw used his mod powers to sneak those stats in after the fact, but I definitely don't recall seeing them before I posted yesterday.
Anywho, I already had the first one, added the second one when @Gohawks mentioned consistency, despite knowing he meant in a weekly manner, but it made me curious how many WRs have consistently been producing over the past 3 years.

 

The first is the 2 year cumulative PPR fantasy points for every WR who finished top 50 in both 2015 and 2016.
Total of 26, sorted by total points, weeks 1-17, created and assembled by myself, pulled from FFToday.

2_Year.png

 

The second is the 3 year cumulative PPR fantasy points for every WR who finished top 50 in all 3 years; 2014, 2015, 2016.

Total of 18 sorted by total fantasy points, weeks 1-17, created and assembled by myself, pulled from FFToday.

3_Year.png

 

Keep in mind, these only account for finishing top 50 all 3 years, so there are players who potentially have more points in 2 years, or from a 51+ finish in a single year that would be on the list if it didn't have a cutoff.  For example Larry Fitz finished 51st in 2014, with 153 points, for a 3 year cumulative of ~684 but didn't make the list.

I'd like to see top 30. I doubt there's much. 

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18 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

I picked him up when he broke in '15, but what I didn't like was that a lot of his TDs were vs air. Still, he went off three times & provided very good production on two other occasions. Apart from that though, he didn't once provide what I consider complement scoring (10 pts-standard). Considerable TD regression, does that turn back around or does the slide continue? 

It's about where he has always been, 7 to 8 is where I'd guess his tds for this year.  But I like guys like baldwin because you never know, his numbers in 15 might be rare but I don't think it's totally out of the question to have another season snap again for him and have similar output. 

Edited by Savatage79

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't know if @jbshaw used his mod powers to sneak those stats in after the fact, but I definitely don't recall seeing them before I posted yesterday.
Anywho, I already had the first one, added the second one when @Gohawks mentioned consistency, despite knowing he meant in a weekly manner, but it made me curious how many WRs have consistently been producing over the past 3 years.

 

 

Nope, that response wasn't edited (AFAIK, I can't remove an "edited by tag," even if I can edit anyone's post and don't have the 10 minute edit limit).  I think I just posted after you loaded/refreshed the page but before you posted.  I can't edit time tags either (to my knowledge). Mod powers only go so far. 

 

As far as consistency, that's still not addressing week to week consistency.  Let's look at 2 players who finished within 10 PPR points of each other last season, Julio Jones and Doug Baldwin. 

 

Julio Jones had games of 0, 0 (both injury related), 1.6, 4.9, 5.9, 7.5, 10.0, 16.6, 18.3, 21.6, 22.6, 23.5, 25.1, 26.4, 26.9, and 48. 

 

Doug Baldwin had games of 5.0, 6.4, 7.1, 9.1, 9.4, 10.4, 10.6, 11.9, 12.9, 13.5, 14.4, 14.5, 14.9, 24.2, 30.4, and 36.1

 

For the record, I'm coming off a little bit different than fantasy pros stats.  I think I remember a trick play Baldwin to Wilson TD pass which would explain it, and I'm only a point off Julio for the season.  Regardless, I am positive their receiving/rushing stats per game are included. 

 

I've reordered them in numerical order since this is consistency, and unless you can tie colder weather/clutch factor to a player (like Romo, for many seasons, was always a god in November), I don't see a reason to focus on when those performances occurred. 

 

So how do you define consistency?  

 

Julio had 4 games under 5 points compared to none for Baldwin (although 2 of them you would have a WR3/4 caliber production replacing him on average). 

Julio had 6 games under 10 points compared to 5 for Baldwin (although 2 of them you'd have a replacement). 

Julio had 1 game from 10-15 points, compared to 8 for Baldwin.  

Julio had 2 games from 15-20 points, compared to 0 for Baldwin. 

Julio had 3 games from 20-25 points, compared to 1 for Baldwin. 

Julio had 3 games from 25-30 points, compared to 0 for Baldwin. 

Julio had 1 game of 30+, compared to 2 for Baldwin. 

 

I'm not familiar with PPR, so I really don't know a good score vs a great score vs a meh score vs a what the fornication score, so make your own judgement from the above.  

 

From a pure numerical standpoint, Julio averaged 16.2 PPG with a standard deviation of 13 points (18.5 PPG and 12.2 in games in which he played). Baldwin averaged 15.4 points, but had a standard deviation of only 9.5 points. So purely numerically, Baldwin was more consistent than Julio. If you stack up their best games against their worst, Baldwin out performed Julio 9 times (2 of which were injury zeroes).  I still doubt anyone here, where we're biased towards Baldwin fans, would take Baldwin over Julio.

 

Julio was far more likely to get you 15 points though (guessing that's about equivalent to 10 points in standard, which is what I consider a good game) , achieving that in over half of his games (9/16, 9/14 if games played), whereas Baldwin only did that 4 times.  Julio 20+ is 7/16 (7/14) compared to Baldwin's 4/16. 

 

So I guess the question is what do you want?  More good games?  Julio wins by far, and Baldwin isn't that good (absent comparing to all players. If anyone knows where to a mass excel file of all receiver stats, I can accountant the crap out of that). Less awful game? Baldwin wins, especially if you hold Julio's injuries against him. Care about raw numerical consistency?  Baldwin is significantly better.  Care about PPG?  Julio is a close win (that gets a full PPG better if we're adding in a meh receiver for his 2 0's). 

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Consistency is so overlooked in this forum it is ridiculous.

 

Give me 15, 15, 15, 15, and 15 over 0, 0, 31, 31, and 2 any damn day. The problem with players that experience extreme inconsistency is you end up sitting the player during his huge games. That and he loses you a ton of weeks.

 

Also, you say anyone that didn't start him vs NE deserved to see him go off. That is the biggest BS I have heard. Few weeks prior he put up 5 points against NO and 3 points against ATL. Previous 5 weeks he averaged 5.9 fantasy points. 10.7 in full PPR. Which over a full season would put him at WR 51. So no those people that benched him did not deserve to see him go off. Unless you are saying NO and ATL are worse opponents fantasy wise and even then that argument wouldn't hold much water. 

 

Hyperbole much? Calm down, dude. 

 

Yes, consistency is preferred, but even the best players can be inconsistent (Brown/Julio/Green pop up off the top of my head).

 

Also, I know you love hyperbole, but show me these zeroes Baldwin is putting up. Again, I play in PPR so Baldwin's season is looked at in a different context than what you see him as. 

 

Funny how you reference the "5 points he put up against NO and 3 points against ATL" as your reasoning to bench Baldwin vs. the Pats, yet you leave out the 6-89 performance he had THE WEEK BEFORE HE PLAYED THE PATRIOTS. Wouldn't that game be a good indicator that he was starting to turn things around? He's shown to be a better second half player than first half, and when you couple that with Russell Wilson's injury early in the season, it's no surprise that Baldwin started to turn things around by Week 9. So yes, you got exactly what you deserved if you benched him. 

 

 

Screen shot 2017-02-24 at 4.44.37 PM.png

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Unless you are saying NO and ATL are worse opponents fantasy wise and even then that argument wouldn't hold much water. 

 

I don't look at opposing defenses as a whole when assessing whether or not I should be playing a WR. The Atlanta game he got shut down by Desmond Trufant, one of the best corners in the league. Think that doesn't make a difference? Baldwin went for 5-80-1 against Atlanta in the playoffs without Trufant.

 

As for the Saints game, yes, that was a letdown. But I suspect his performance had more to do with Baldwin battling a knee injury leading up to that week and being used as more of a decoy in that game. 

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1 hour ago, mrblonde1984 said:

"Funny how you reference the "5 points he put up against NO and 3 points against ATL" as your reasoning to bench Baldwin vs. the Pats, yet you leave out the 6-89 performance he had THE WEEK BEFORE HE PLAYED THE PATRIOTS. Wouldn't that game be a good indicator that he was starting to turn things around?" 

 

lol... No, not exactly I'm afraid. In standard scoring he hadn't done much of anything for weeks & that was at home against the niners. I didn't have him this past year, but if I had, those are points that may well have been on my bench too. Especially for those of us who had picked up a Jamison Crowder or Michael Thomas.

Edited by markrc99
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Or, a Rishard Matthews, right? If you had picked him up, he scored 18.3 pts the week prior to Baldwin going off.  

Edited by markrc99

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Situations like these is why I think it would be nice to differentiate Standard and PPR discussions. I don't know if that's possible or even worth while, but it's just a thought.

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4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

lol... No, not exactly I'm afraid. In standard scoring he hadn't done much of anything for weeks & that was at home against the niners. I didn't have him this past year, but if I had, those are points that may well have been on my bench too. Especially for those of us who had picked up a Jamison Crowder or Michael Thomas.

 

"Picked up" Michael Thomas? As someone else mentioned, we clearly play in different kinds of leagues.

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11 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

"Picked up" Michael Thomas? As someone else mentioned, we clearly play in different kinds of leagues.

I read that thinking spent a later round draft pick.  He had an ADP placing him in the early 11th round (mid 9th round PPR) because of the whole combination of rookie WR and Saints WR. 

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10 hours ago, jbshaw said:

I read that thinking spent a later round draft pick.  He had an ADP placing him in the early 11th round (mid 9th round PPR) because of the whole combination of rookie WR and Saints WR. 

 

We've gotten off track, and now things are getting too team specific. My original reply to @Gohawks was because he claimed most people didn't play Baldwin vs NE. 

 

I hate when people post things on behalf of every other person in the world. Just because YOU benched someone and it was wrong, don't try to justify it by claiming it was something every single other person did. You can't speak for them, so don't. Just say what you did and why, and leave it at that.

 

Like I said, I think based on the matchup and how Baldwin was used the week before, he was a good play AT NE. People act like Baldwin had 2 catches the week before or something and he was an obvious bench. I don't see it.

 

 

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5 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

We've gotten off track, and now things are getting too team specific. My original reply to @Gohawks was because he claimed most people didn't play Baldwin vs NE. 

 

I hate when people post things on behalf of every other person in the world. Just because YOU benched someone and it was wrong, don't try to justify it by claiming it was something every single other person did. You can't speak for them, so don't. Just say what you did and why, and leave it at that.

 

Like I said, I think based on the matchup and how Baldwin was used the week before, he was a good play AT NE. People act like Baldwin had 2 catches the week before or something and he was an obvious bench. I don't see it.

 

 

I didn't own him in a single league.

 

You claimed anyone that didn't start him deserved to see him go off. Like I said that's ridiculous. He had one decent game finally the week prior I doubt that is enough to justify anything. Then he went back to sucking after the Patriots game for a while.

 

The only point I'm trying to make here is that he wasn't as good as some people are making him out to be last year.

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The only point I'm trying to make here is that he wasn't as good as some people are making him out to be last year.

 

I agree that he didn't live up to some expectations. I also see him as a bit of a value just because in most of my drafts he seems to get over looked.

 

For 2017, I think taking him as your WR2 is fine.

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45 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

I agree that he didn't live up to some expectations. I also see him as a bit of a value just because in most of my drafts he seems to get over looked.

 

For 2017, I think taking him as your WR2 is fine.

He fits the WR2 profile to a T. Good enough for a few weeks of nice WR1 production as well.

 

I'm in a league full of Hawks fans however, so he will likely go earlier than in most other drafts.

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I was going to ask what alternatives each of you had. Turns out 'Hawk wasn't even an owner, but I still think his point was spot on. Eventually, in every one of these discussions, a player's ceiling & floor are part of the debate. It matters & for the very reason he said. If a guy is volatile or flooring for a month or more & has a tough matchup, owners with viable options are apt to bench that player. Sure enough, when he finally does go off, those points are sitting on the bench. Happens all the time.  

 

 

 

Edited by markrc99
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Wilson really hurt Baldwin last year, just alot of suck and that damn ankle. Overall id of been happy for the most part with baldwin if I had him as a wr 2. I'm lookin at his week to week and only really week 4 thru 8 was pretty rough. If he'd of Had one really nice big game there somewhere it'd of probably been a little better overall.. But his point totals are about where you'd expect, he had some really nice games. 

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On 2/24/2017 at 7:29 PM, psygolf said:

Q for Joshua: did you eliminate week 17 from your data before posting?

 

lol

 

Yes. Try again. 

 

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A top-10 WR for two straight years in the prime of his career as the clear #1 option for a young QB with multiple QB1 seasons in his career -- being talked about as a WR2? Some of the posts in this thread are hilarious. 

 

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11 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

A top-10 WR for two straight years in the prime of his career as the clear #1 option for a young QB with multiple QB1 seasons in his career -- being talked about as a WR2? Some of the posts in this thread are hilarious. 

 

Really depends on what you want.  Over in the Cooks thread, I pointed out my standard for an awful game is about 6 standard points.  If you can't get past the 60 yard or 1 TD threshold, you're not doing a damn thing for me and I call it a complete failure of the week.  Baldwin had SEVEN awful games by that standard (six if we're throwing out week 17). He had another 3 "meh" games (6.1-10 points), so I'm either pissed or disappointed for over half my fantasy season with Baldwin.  The 94 receptions boosts him higher in PPR, but he doesn't have anything desireable to me as a standard WR1.  

 

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

Really depends on what you want.  Over in the Cooks thread, I pointed out my standard for an awful game is about 6 standard points.  If you can't get past the 60 yard or 1 TD threshold, you're not doing a damn thing for me and I call it a complete failure of the week.  Baldwin had SEVEN awful games by that standard (six if we're throwing out week 17). He had another 3 "meh" games (6.1-10 points), so I'm either pissed or disappointed for over half my fantasy season with Baldwin.  The 94 receptions boosts him higher in PPR, but he doesn't have anything desireable to me as a standard WR1.  

 

 

I said this about 2 months ago, but 2016 was a combo of bad things for Baldwin: Graham being healthy to dominate RZ targets + Wilson being hurt and immobile most of the season + due for big TD regression from his 2015 season. And despite all of these occurring at once, Baldwin still finished as a top-8 WR!  Would be shocked if he doesn't improve on his 2016 numbers barring injury. 

 

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19 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I said this about 2 months ago, but 2016 was a combo of bad things for Baldwin: Graham being healthy to dominate RZ targets + Wilson being hurt and immobile most of the season + due for big TD regression from his 2015 season. And despite all of these occurring at once, Baldwin still finished as a top-8 WR!  Would be shocked if he doesn't improve on his 2016 numbers barring injury. 

 

If we go with 2015, he has 6 such games (a seventh right at the 6.0 threshold).  I'd say 2015 went really well for him (14 TDs is unreal for most receivers, especially if they're not your contested catch prototype like Dez or Evans) instead of 2016 going badly on that front. 2015 was an anomaly TD year.  You're looking at 7-8% of catches as TDs looking over his entire career. 

 

I think we also have vastly different ideas of his talent.  I think being paired with a top tier NFL QB and a weak supporting cast so the ball has to be fed to him inflates his stats.  In terms of real talent (not fantasy), I don't think he's a top 20 WR. (Bryant, Beckham, Evans, Thomas, Julio, Fitz, Cooks, Landry, Watkins, Hopkins, Hilton, Robinson, Thomas, Sanders, Cooper, Brown, Green, Jeffrey,  and Nelson [no particular order] are all guys I think would outproduce him if placed in Seattle in his role, and that's not getting into promising guys like Pryor or Allen. 

 

Now, when it comes to fantasy, he's in a great situation.  It bumps him ahead of a lot of those guys.  But based on his career averages of TDs, if he has another 90-100 catch season (which I think is probably inflated, but it's the most recent data point), he's only going to have 6-8 TDs and 1100-1200 yards.  I'd rather swing for a guy that I think has the potential to go bigger as my WR1 come draft time. 

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