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Ffguy0087

Doug Baldwin 2017 Season Outlook

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

Really depends on what you want.  Over in the Cooks thread, I pointed out my standard for an awful game is about 6 standard points.  If you can't get past the 60 yard or 1 TD threshold, you're not doing a damn thing for me and I call it a complete failure of the week.  Baldwin had SEVEN awful games by that standard (six if we're throwing out week 17). He had another 3 "meh" games (6.1-10 points), so I'm either pissed or disappointed for over half my fantasy season with Baldwin.  The 94 receptions boosts him higher in PPR, but he doesn't have anything desireable to me as a standard WR1.  

 

 

How does that compare to the rest of the top 25 WRs? Also, why 60 yards? Why not 50? Or 40? Just curious how you arrived at such a specific number.

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12 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

If we go with 2015, he has 6 such games (a seventh right at the 6.0 threshold).  I'd say 2015 went really well for him (14 TDs is unreal for most receivers, especially if they're not your contested catch prototype like Dez or Evans) instead of 2016 going badly on that front. 2015 was an anomaly TD year.  You're looking at 7-8% of catches as TDs looking over his entire career. 

 

I think we also have vastly different ideas of his talent.  I think being paired with a top tier NFL QB and a weak supporting cast so the ball has to be fed to him inflates his stats.  In terms of real talent (not fantasy), I don't think he's a top 20 WR. (Bryant, Beckham, Evans, Thomas, Julio, Fitz, Cooks, Landry, Watkins, Hopkins, Hilton, Robinson, Thomas, Sanders, Cooper, Brown, Green, Jeffrey,  and Nelson [no particular order] are all guys I think would outproduce him if placed in Seattle in his role, and that's not getting into promising guys like Pryor or Allen. 

 

Now, when it comes to fantasy, he's in a great situation.  It bumps him ahead of a lot of those guys.  But based on his career averages of TDs, if he has another 90-100 catch season (which I think is probably inflated, but it's the most recent data point), he's only going to have 6-8 TDs and 1100-1200 yards.  I'd rather swing for a guy that I think has the potential to go bigger as my WR1 come draft time. 

 

You can't talk about talent without production. Very few of those names could have produced what Baldwin has done the past 2 years  if given the limited targets he has gotten. For goodness sake, Julio in 2015 got exactly 100 more targets and still scored 6 fewer TDs. Baldwin is in by far the most run heavy offense of any top WR, gets far fewer targets, has a monster TE to compete with for RZ targets and is still a top-10 WR, bettered since 2015 only by AB, OBJ, and Julio in total production (each of whom has seen 100-130 more targets than Baldwin over that time span). 

 

The only WRs clearly better right now are AB, OBJ, Evans and Green (Julio would be on here IF he fully recovers from his latest foot surgery)...that's elite territory. 

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Underrated is an understatement. He scores points, a lot of them, thats good enough for me. 

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56 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

How does that compare to the rest of the top 25 WRs? Also, why 60 yards? Why not 50? Or 40? Just curious how you arrived at such a specific number.

Same amount of points as a TD is the only logic behind it, just like "double digits are pretty" is the only reason 10 is my threshold for a happy week.  Obviously numbers change depending on your preference. It doesn't compare favorably to the guys above him on the list (Julio I think is 6 including 2 injury goose eggs, Evans was 5 IIRC. Brown the animal was 2 or 3.  I think OBJ was 6. Hilton was 5. Michael Thomas (closest scorer to Baldwin was 7).  Crabtree (closest receiver behind in standard) was 5 (with a 6th at the cutoff amount). 

52 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

You can't talk about talent without production. Very few of those names could have produced what Baldwin has done the past 2 years  if given the limited targets he has gotten. For goodness sake, Julio in 2015 got exactly 100 more targets and still scored 6 fewer TDs. Baldwin is in by far the most run heavy offense of any top WR, gets far fewer targets, has a monster TE to compete with for RZ targets and is still a top-10 WR, bettered since 2015 only by AB, OBJ, and Julio in total production (each of whom has seen 100-130 more targets than Baldwin over that time span). 

 

The only WRs clearly better right now are AB, OBJ, Evans and Green (Julio would be on here IF he fully recovers from his latest foot surgery)...that's elite territory. 

Like I said, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that.  Talent isn't necessarily shown by production.  I can understand knocking a couple of the guys I mentioned because of availability (like Watkins), but I think all outproduce Baldwin if you place them in Seattle with 4 years of chemistry with Russel Wilson, or whatever the number is.  Having Ryan Tannehill behind a girl scout troop of an offensive line doesn't do a lot to show Landry's talent (who I view as pretty close to Baldwin).  Having Matt Barkley as your QB to throw to you doesn't showcase Jefferey.  Having Trevor Siemian learning to play NFL ball behind a crappy line doesn't showcase Thomas or Sanders. I'd call you a liar if you'd tell me you wouldn't take Demaryius ahead of Baldwin if you were drafting a team for real football.

 

A lot of that is really beside the point.  What makes you think he's going to suddenly surpass 1128 yards?  What makes you think he's going to improve on 7 TDs (which is completely in line with his career TD %)?  Is he suddenly going to get 120 receptions? He's already high volume.  Seattle was 16th in the league in run percentage in 2016 (behind Tampa, Pitt, Atlanta, and Cincinnati), and I don't think that's going back up in 2017 based on the RB and O-line talent currently on the roster. I'd stop looking at 2015 TDs as anything relevant. Roughly a 20% TD percentage is unsustainable and an extreme outlier. 

 

Bottom line, I don't see any reason to set expectations above 1100 yards, 8 TDs on a full 16 game season.  Is that enough to finish in the top 12 of fantasy receivers?  Yes.  Other guys will not capitalize on situation/talent, or get hurt and not play a full season.  But I'd rather shoot for a guy that I think has the talent to go for 1400 and 10 with my first WR. That early in the draft, I want upside. And gambling on a guy almost tripling his career TD percentage like he did in 2015 isn't reasonable to me. 

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We'll agree to disagree. I hope he remains undervalued in drafts like he was last year. 

 

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4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

A top-10 WR for two straight years in the prime of his career as the clear #1 option for a young QB with multiple QB1 seasons in his career -- being talked about as a WR2? Some of the posts in this thread are hilarious. 

 

I usually do not want my wr1 to be outscored by the half of the other wr1s starting for my opponents.

Edited by psygolf

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4 minutes ago, psygolf said:

 

 

I usually do not want my wr1 to be outscored by the half of the other wr1s starting for my opponents.

 

You're welcome to take someone like Dez, Keenan Allen, or Jeffrey...who have each been outscored by at least 30 WRs each of the past two seasons. To each their own. 

 

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10 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

You're welcome to take someone like Dez, Keenan Allen, or Jeffrey...who have each been outscored by at least 30 WRs each of the past two seasons. To each their own. 

 

No thanks

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

Same amount of points as a TD is the only logic behind it, just like "double digits are pretty" is the only reason 10 is my threshold for a happy week. 

 

I bet if you looked to see what the threshold is for a weekly WR1 or WR2 in any given week,  you'd change your outlook on what you'd consider a good or bad game. I used to think 10 points in PPR for a WR was an ok week until I looked up the numbers and saw it was something like 12 or 13 that actually separated a player from WR2-3 status.

 

As for Baldwin, you mentioned some other top WRs as outperforming him, but other than Brown they all had a decent amount of bad games by your standards. While OBJ had 6 duds and Baldwin had 7, you have to consider the difference in ADP between those two when judging them. If we're talking strictly consistency (not total points), then a player with one fewer dud game than a player that was likely drafted top 5 screams value to me. And when I'm assessing Baldwin, that's what I think he will be in 2017 – a value.

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2 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

I bet if you looked to see what the threshold is for a weekly WR1 or WR2 in any given week,  you'd change your outlook on what you'd consider a good or bad game.

 

Those of us in this current conversation already knows how I've obtained the numbers below, so I won't bother going into the math here.

 

Threshold for a Top 12 PPR finish on any given week: ~21

Threshold for a Top 24 PPR finish on any given week: ~14

Threshold for a Top 36 PPR finish on any given week: ~11

 

 

By this measure, Baldwin was top 12, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Baldwin was top 24, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Baldwin was top 36, two times last year. (13%)

By this measure, Baldwin was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%)

Standard Deviation of 9.4

 

Cooks is the name mentioned above, finished 11th overall, and is what multiple people call 'too boom or bust'

 

By this measure, Cooks was top 12, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Cooks was top 24, five times last year. (33%)

By this measure, Cooks was top 36, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Cooks was 37th or worse, three times last year. (20%)

Standard Deviation of 10.5

 

Dead center of WR2 would be 18th overall, which is...

Tyrell Williams?

 

By this measure, Williams was top 12, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Williams was top 24, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Williams was top 36, two times last year. (13%)

By this measure, Williams was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%)

Standard Deviation of 6.8

 

Last WR2 would be 24th overall, which is...

Mike Wallace.

 

Top 12, two times last year. (13%)

Top 24, two times last year. (13%)

Top 36, four times last year. (26%)

37th or worse, seven times last year. (47%)

Standard Deviation of 5.5

 

Antonio is the #1 WR in the game.

Top 12, eight times last year. (53%)

Top 24, three times last year. (20%)

Top 36, one time last year. (6%)

37th or worse, three times last year. (20%)

Standard Deviation of 8.7

 

Baldwin is currently drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

I'll pass.

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8 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Those of us in this current conversation already knows how I've obtained the numbers below, so I won't bother going into the math here.

 

Threshold for a Top 12 PPR finish on any given week: ~21

Threshold for a Top 24 PPR finish on any given week: ~14

Threshold for a Top 36 PPR finish on any given week: ~11

 

 

By this measure, Baldwin was top 12, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Baldwin was top 24, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Baldwin was top 36, two times last year. (13%)

By this measure, Baldwin was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%)

Standard Deviation of 9.4

 

Cooks is the name mentioned above, finished 11th overall, and is what multiple people call 'too boom or bust'

 

By this measure, Cooks was top 12, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Cooks was top 24, five times last year. (33%)

By this measure, Cooks was top 36, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Cooks was 37th or worse, three times last year. (20%)

Standard Deviation of 10.5

 

Dead center of WR2 would be 18th overall, which is...

Tyrell Williams?

 

By this measure, Williams was top 12, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Williams was top 24, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Williams was top 36, two times last year. (13%)

By this measure, Williams was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%)

Standard Deviation of 6.8

 

Last WR2 would be 24th overall, which is...

Mike Wallace.

 

Top 12, two times last year. (13%)

Top 24, two times last year. (13%)

Top 36, four times last year. (26%)

37th or worse, seven times last year. (47%)

Standard Deviation of 5.5

 

Antonio is the #1 WR in the game.

Top 12, eight times last year. (53%)

Top 24, three times last year. (20%)

Top 36, one time last year. (6%)

37th or worse, three times last year. (20%)

Standard Deviation of 8.7

 

Baldwin is currently drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

I'll pass.

 

Makes sense...if you believe Wilson is going to be hurt most of 2017 like he was in 2016. Personally, I don't. 

 

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The Seahawks had 400 rushing attempts last season; a huge drop from the average of 500 they had in the previous 3.

 

I'd say it's safe to assume that Baldwin won't touch 90 receptions if Lacy/Rawls play 16 games. More depth at RB essentially means a return to a run-based game.

 

 

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4 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

I bet if you looked to see what the threshold is for a weekly WR1 or WR2 in any given week,  you'd change your outlook on what you'd consider a good or bad game. I used to think 10 points in PPR for a WR was an ok week until I looked up the numbers and saw it was something like 12 or 13 that actually separated a player from WR2-3 status.

 

As for Baldwin, you mentioned some other top WRs as outperforming him, but other than Brown they all had a decent amount of bad games by your standards. While OBJ had 6 duds and Baldwin had 7, you have to consider the difference in ADP between those two when judging them. If we're talking strictly consistency (not total points), then a player with one fewer dud game than a player that was likely drafted top 5 screams value to me. And when I'm assessing Baldwin, that's what I think he will be in 2017 – a value.

A lot of it is what I'm able to predict.  So sure, my 10 (standard) point week might not have been the best play on my roster because Adam Thielen has a 100 yard and 2 TD week.  I can't predict that, so I'm content to see my guy put up 10ish. Only 12 guys averaged that per game in standard last year (Doug Baldwin is tied with Dez Bryant for last on that front).  

 

When it comes to value, Crabtree had less bad games and was cheaper than Baldwin.  Of course, the real separation comes around when you flip it to the good/great games instead of awful/meh.  The elite guys outstripped Baldwin in the number of good-great games. So not only did Julio have less bad games, he also outstripped Baldwin at scoring 15+ in PPR 9:3 (switching to PPR simply because I've already done it and don't want to math).  Baldwin was king of 10-15 PPR games this past season with 8. But he only broke the 15 point threshold 3 times.  In leagues where weekly points matter, that's not very good for your lead guy.  

 

If his ADP holds at the 4th round, I'll probably be a buyer. But that doesn't mean I think he's an elite fantasy WR.  

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

A lot of it is what I'm able to predict.  So sure, my 10 (standard) point week might not have been the best play on my roster because Adam Thielen has a 100 yard and 2 TD week.  I can't predict that, so I'm content to see my guy put up 10ish. Only 12 guys averaged that per game in standard last year (Doug Baldwin is tied with Dez Bryant for last on that front).  

 

When it comes to value, Crabtree had less bad games and was cheaper than Baldwin.  Of course, the real separation comes around when you flip it to the good/great games instead of awful/meh.  The elite guys Baldwin was king of 10-15 PPR games this past season with 8. But he only broke the 15 point threshold 3 times.  In leagues where weekly points matter, that's not very good for your lead guy.  

 

If his ADP holds at the 4th round, I'll probably be a buyer. But that doesn't mean I think he's an elite fantasy WR.  

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9 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Baldwin is currently drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

I'll pass.

 

Tyrell Williams was a surprising example that you showed.  Didn't realize he had such a good year.  But do we expect he'll repeat, next year, assuming Keenan comes back and plays at least half the year?  No way am I taking Williams ahead of Baldwin, at least.

 

Also, which WRs would you take ahead of him in PPR, who are currently behind him?  Keenan?  Hell no.  Hopkins?  No.  Cooks?  OK, maybe.  Robinson, Edelman, Jeffrey, Hill?  No, no, no, no.  Maybe Landry, maybe Adams... but this is all fair price right now.

 

I could see a case for Ingram, of the RBs in the vicinity.  But in PPR, eh...

 

5hgeJvv.png

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4 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Tyrell Williams was a surprising example that you showed.  Didn't realize he had such a good year.  But do we expect he'll repeat, next year, assuming Keenan comes back and plays at least half the year?  No way am I taking Williams ahead of Baldwin, at least.

 

Also, which WRs would you take ahead of him in PPR, who are currently behind him?  Keenan?  Hell no.  Hopkins?  No.  Cooks?  OK, maybe.  Robinson, Edelman, Jeffrey, Hill?  No, no, no, no.  Maybe Landry, maybe Adams... but this is all fair price right now.

 

I could see a case for Ingram, of the RBs in the vicinity.  But in PPR, eh...

 

5hgeJvv.png

 

I'd be pretty surprised if Cooks, Hopkins and Allen all went after Baldwin in drafts. I'd guess by August the ADPs will change. Other names I could see going before Baldwin are Watkins, Marshall, Jeffery, and Robinson.

 

Long story short - I do not think Baldwin will be the 11th player off the board or a top 25 pick come the summer. I'm thinking 4th, 5th round is where we see him go in 12-team leagues. 

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11 hours ago, jbshaw said:

The elite guys outstripped Baldwin in the number of good-great games. So not only did Julio have less bad games, he also outstripped Baldwin at scoring 15+ in PPR 9:3 (switching to PPR simply because I've already done it and don't want to math).  Baldwin was king of 10-15 PPR games this past season with 8. But he only broke the 15 point threshold 3 times.  In leagues where weekly points matter, that's not very good for your lead guy.  

 

Definitely not promoting Baldwin as someone you want to be your WR1, so no need to compare him to the Julios of the world. Ideally I'd love to have him as my flex, but if somehow I end up with 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds, I would be fine with him as my WR2.

 

 

Edited by mrblonde1984

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38 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

I'd be pretty surprised if Cooks, Hopkins and Allen all went after Baldwin in drafts. I'd guess by August the ADPs will change. Other names I could see going before Baldwin are Watkins, Marshall, Jeffery, and Robinson.

 

Long story short - I do not think Baldwin will be the 11th player off the board or a top 25 pick come the summer. I'm thinking 4th, 5th round is where we see him go in 12-team leagues. 

 

God I hope Baldwin's ADP falls behind all of those guys.  But I'm really not as optimistic as you.  Guy finished WR7 then WR10 the last 2 years.  Cooks is the only one keeping the pace with that.  Robinson/Hopkins were like WR6, then WR30-something.  Marshall and Keenan, even worse.  Right or wrong, just due to recency bias I think Baldwin creeps in front of most of these guys.

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15 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Those of us in this current conversation already knows how I've obtained the numbers below, so I won't bother going into the math here.

 

Threshold for a Top 12 PPR finish on any given week: ~21

Threshold for a Top 24 PPR finish on any given week: ~14

Threshold for a Top 36 PPR finish on any given week: ~11

 

 

By this measure, Baldwin was top 12, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Baldwin was top 24, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Baldwin was top 36, two times last year. (13%)

By this measure, Baldwin was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%)

Standard Deviation of 9.4

 

Cooks is the name mentioned above, finished 11th overall, and is what multiple people call 'too boom or bust'

 

By this measure, Cooks was top 12, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Cooks was top 24, five times last year. (33%)

By this measure, Cooks was top 36, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Cooks was 37th or worse, three times last year. (20%)

Standard Deviation of 10.5

 

Dead center of WR2 would be 18th overall, which is...

Tyrell Williams?

 

By this measure, Williams was top 12, four times last year. (26%)

By this measure, Williams was top 24, three times last year. (20%)

By this measure, Williams was top 36, two times last year. (13%)

By this measure, Williams was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%)

Standard Deviation of 6.8

 

Last WR2 would be 24th overall, which is...

Mike Wallace.

 

Top 12, two times last year. (13%)

Top 24, two times last year. (13%)

Top 36, four times last year. (26%)

37th or worse, seven times last year. (47%)

Standard Deviation of 5.5

 

Antonio is the #1 WR in the game.

Top 12, eight times last year. (53%)

Top 24, three times last year. (20%)

Top 36, one time last year. (6%)

37th or worse, three times last year. (20%)

Standard Deviation of 8.7

 

Baldwin is currently drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

I'll pass.

 

 

I appreciate the research and stats, thank you!, but confused on your T Williams numbers. They are the same as Baldwin but TWill has a lower standard deviation?

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This is why having a stud RB boosts your chances like crazy of winning a chip. The top few RBs often have no bad games all year maybe 1 or 2.

 

WRs have 3+ if not 5+ and can bite you in the a** any game against the best matchup on earth.

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15 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Makes sense...if you believe Wilson is going to be hurt most of 2017 like he was in 2016. Personally, I don't. 

 

It's always about what's convenient for you.

Look, if you want to project an increase in Baldwins production for 2017, because Wilson should be healthy, the offense should be better, etc etc... I have no issue with that, that's logical.  Thus far, though, you've going on and on about how good Baldwin was in 2015 and 2016, I'm showing why I don't think his 2016 was impressive at all, (plus believe his '15 was buoyed by TDs) and your counter is 'but but but Wilson was hurt'.  That's fine, Baldwin can get better, but Baldwin was no different than a middling WR2 in 2016, in what was already a really bad year for WRs.  So forgive me if I'm just not impressed with his 'year end' results like you are.  I'm sure you'll have some witty comment about me 'missing' on Baldwin last year, but I didn't miss anything.  I got Doug Baldwin production from my 16th round pick.  Pryor had just as many weeks above the top 24 cutoff as Baldwin did.  Which is the point, Baldwins production, while solid, while good, isn't special.  It's about draft capitol and opportunity cost.  Why is Baldwin in the 3rd, more valuable to your team than Landry or Demaryius in the 4th?  Why is Baldwin in the 3rd more valuable to your team than B.Marsh or L.Fitz in the 5th?  T.Pryor or E.Sanders in the 6th?

 

If you want to talk about the potential benefits Baldwin could have that will increase his worth in 2017, you're not going to get any arguments from me.

If you want to talk about how amazing Baldwin was in 2015 and 2016, then I'm going to point out why I personally disagree.

But you don't get to bounce back and forth between these 2 arguments when it fits your narrative.

 

5 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Tyrell Williams was a surprising example that you showed.  Didn't realize he had such a good year.  But do we expect he'll repeat, next year, assuming Keenan comes back and plays at least half the year?  No way am I taking Williams ahead of Baldwin, at least.

 

Also, which WRs would you take ahead of him in PPR, who are currently behind him?  Keenan?  Hell no.  Hopkins?  No.  Cooks?  OK, maybe.  Robinson, Edelman, Jeffrey, Hill?  No, no, no, no.  Maybe Landry, maybe Adams... but this is all fair price right now.

 

I could see a case for Ingram, of the RBs in the vicinity.  But in PPR, eh...

 

The point isn't that Tyrell should be drafted ahead of Baldwin, it was simply to show that Baldwin was indistinguishable from a middling WR2 last year, when you compare their weekly effects on your team.  Baldwin, in a year that was BAD for WRs... had as many good weeks as Tyrell, or Pryor.  I'm not claiming Pryor or Tyrell deserve to be drafted where Baldwin is, the point I'm trying to make, is why would you pay so highly for Baldwin, given the small differences between his production on a weekly basis, to these other names?

 

Even if we chalk Baldwin up for an 85/1100/8 season...

In '16 that would have been 11th overall.

In '15 that would have been 15th overall.

 

Solid production.  But nowhere near elite.  joshua is telling you, there are only 4 WRs in the game 'clearly better' than Baldwin right now.

Hell, M.Thomas in his rookie year, on 1 less game, just out produced the 2nd best year of Baldwin's entire career, and I'm suppose to think Baldwin is special?  Uhhh, no.  You can claim Wilson's health will impact Baldwin, sure.  But was Wilson not healthy in 2015 when Baldwin went 78/1069?  Or am I suppose to chase TDs?  I think Baldwin is who he has been.  85/1100/8 is very reasonable, and solid WR2 at season's end, mid to low WR2 on a weekly basis.  It's just not worth a 3rd round pick to me.  He'll likely drop to the 4th and be 'fair' value there, but still of no interest to me.  There's just too many WRs that can be had after Baldwin, that I think have just as much opportunity to reach my projected stats for Baldwin.

 

Maybe my projection is just completely wrong, maybe yours/josh's is just much higher.  Nothing wrong with that, that's why we play the game.

I'm higher on Baldwin's potential this year than I was last year, because A: He's done it more than once B: I believed in Jimmy Graham last year, and even though he came through, it didn't hinder Baldwin C: I was/am a huge Lockett fan, but he doesn't appear to be stepping up (yet) and the Seahawks don't appear committed to getting him involved.  

 

Baldwin is solid, just not exciting.  He doesn't appeal to me as the upside type of player with top 5 potential.  His catch rate is impressively high, but I prefer to chase targets.  Baldwin was 19th among WRs for targets last year. 1100 is a solid receiving line, but we're playing a game in which 23 WRs broke 1,000 yards in '16, and 22 did it in '15.  I tend to align with @predator_05 above, I think SEA is going to try and get back to their run game.  I think a healthy Wilson means more Wilson runs, not more Wilson throws.  Wilson has consistently increased his attempts and p.yards each year, and I do believe in that trend, to a point.  '16 was a larger jump than I expected, and I think the run game (or lack thereof) is part of that reason, which we might be seeing a slight fall, or perhaps a plateau.  His TDs should go up, which should benefit Baldwin and Graham.

 

1 minute ago, FreakFries said:

I appreciate the research and stats, thank you!, but confused on your T Williams numbers. They are the same as Baldwin but TWill has a lower standard deviation?

 

Standard deviation is an odd stat I'm not sure has much application to fantasy football.  Baldwin's STDEV is higher because his highs are higher, and his lows are lower, therefore his range of outcomes is larger.  Statistically, this would mean he's less consistent.  In fantasy football, higher STDEVs usually come with game winning weeks, and that's a good thing, not a bad thing.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Solid production.  But nowhere near elite.

 

joshua might be the only person attempting to call him elite, though.

 

Quote

There's just too many WRs that can be had after Baldwin, that I think have just as much opportunity to reach my projected stats for Baldwin.

 

Again, can you please name them?  I'll buy Demaryius based on potential, but his QB play needs to improve dramatically.  I'll buy Watkins and Jeffrey, if I assume they stay healthy all year.  I've got Martavis Bryant as a dark horse to wait on, a guy who can potentially crack this tier, if he's reinstated, but don't tell anybody (especially BlakeP).  But you're rolling the dice on all of those guys either to overcome poor situations, poor bodies, or poor life choices.  That's fine and fair if you're in a gambling mood, or are able to hit on one.  Am I missing anyone?

 

I think you're projecting him low at 85/1100/8.  I've got him at  95/1200/9, and feel this is pretty safe.  This is based on: 1) his  94/1128/7 year last year, 2) Graham's never having made it 16 games in consecutive seasons in his career, 3) Lockett's gruesome injury, 4) Wilson's regression to the mean, and return to health, 5) An aging defense that's losing pieces 6) Continued inability to fix the O-line or run the ball (Lacy isn't going to make things any better).  They're going to need to throw the ball to score and win, and the offensive production has to go somewhere.

 

It might be an unsexy 10.8 standard points per game.  Maybe not elite.  Maybe not exciting.  But who honestly around his ADP do you expect to beat that?  You can wait on guys you think have higher upside, sure, but then you're gambling.  Baldwin has been a steady, sure bet for 2 years in a row.

 

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Even if we chalk Baldwin up for an 85/1100/8 season...

In '16 that would have been 11th overall.

In '15 that would have been 15th overall.

 

Then it's a good thing he's undervalued at WR17!

 

edit to add: I'm looking mainly in Standard.  If you're in PPR, that might be where our disconnect is.  But I still think you're under-projecting him.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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38 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

It's about draft capitol and opportunity cost.  Why is Baldwin in the 3rd, more valuable to your team than Landry or Demaryius in the 4th?  Why is Baldwin in the 3rd more valuable to your team than B.Marsh or L.Fitz in the 5th?  T.Pryor or E.Sanders in the 6th?

 

3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Again, can you please name them?  

 

... I thought I just did?

 

Maybe this format will help.

Baldwin just had a nice 94/1128 year.   Currently being drafted 25th overall, or the first pick of the 3rd round.

Landry can be had 36th, the last pick of the 3rd round, coming off of 94/1138 year.

Demaryius can be had 46th overall, end of the 4th, coming off of 90/1083.

Crabtree can be had in the 5th(52), 89/1003

Fitzgerald can be had in the 5th(54), 108/1028

Golden Tate can be had in the 5th(58), 91/1077

 

T.Pryor can be had in the 6th(63), 77/1007

E.Sanders can be had in the 6th(71), 79/1032

 

You mentioned M.Bryant, 7th round pick, I agree there.  M.Wallace and D.Jax are both coming of 1,000 yard seasons, can be had in the 12th and 8th round respectively.  Maclin and Decker are #1 WRs on their team, a year removed from top 15 finishes, 7th and 9th round.  Garcon is coming off of a 79/1041 year, and headed to be the #1 WR on a new team, 14th round.  B.Marsh is gunna go play against #2 corners all year with Eli, 5th round.  Hell Willie Snead put up 72/900 with 2 top 12 WRs ahead of him on his own team, now with Cooks gone?  11th round.

 

How far down the draft board do we need to go to make the point?  At years end Baldwin will be better than over half these guys most likely, but will he be 2-8 rounds better?  Remember we're talking about opportunity cost here.  Draft day price and Return on Investment.  Baldwin in the 3rd + Gore in the 7th vs Ingram in the 3rd and Sanders in the 7th.  That's a real world question you have to ask yourself right now... which combo means more points in your H2H matchups, because THAT is what wins games.

 

And here's the kicker... half of this forum will want the Baldwin/Gore combo.  Half will want the Ingram/Sanders combo.

There is no right or wrong answer, until the season is over.  Right now it's entirely opinion, I'm simply sharing mine.  Not telling you yours is wrong, just why i disagree with yours, or prefer an alternate option.  Baldwin is a guy who had 49% of his fantasy production, in 4 games last year.  Sure that looks great on the 'year end' results, and he likely gave you 4 wins with those games, which is very valuable.  To me, there are plenty of guys who blow up 4 times a year, and are below average the other 75% of the time.  That's not a player that interests me, at least not at his current price tag.  Which is the entire point I'm hinging my argument on.  His price doesn't match his production, and I don't personally see the 'ceiling' that others believe he has.  I could very well be wrong.

 

I'm not here to tell you Baldwin sucks.  I'm here to tell you that Baldwin and Fitzgerald were separated by 2.1 points last year, but are separated by 2.1 rounds this year.

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Not going to do this for a 2nd year in a row on Baldwin; @FFCollusion can make all the personal attacks he wants to deflect from how wrong he was about Baldwin (and several other players) last year. I warned everyone last year Baldwin was a high-end WR2 minimum being drafted in the 4th round, and I'm warning everyone again this year that his production is elite and he is being greatly undervalued once again. What you do with that information is on you. 

 

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