taobball

2017 Spring Training Notes

328 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, twistedude said:

Liriano is looking really sharp through his first few starts, anyone think he'll have a productive year in Toronto? He posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.18 whip over 49 innings for the Jays after moving there last year.

I think he outperforms Estrada and Happ this year in terms of ERA, WHIP, IP, and Ks. 

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2 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I think he outperforms Estrada and Happ this year in terms of ERA, WHIP, IP, and Ks. 

 

I'd bet you very extremely on Estrada beating Liriano in WHIP. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I'd bet you very extremely on Estrada beating Liriano in WHIP. 

I don't bet, but OK.

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I don't bet, but OK.

 

I mean I don't either but like... Liriano in good years doesnt' have a good whip. Estrada is going to have a good WHIP even if he has a bad year. I see it as like a .1% chance that Estrada's WHIP is worse than Liriano's. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I mean I don't either but like... Liriano in good years doesnt' have a good whip. Estrada is going to have a good WHIP even if he has a bad year. I see it as like a .1% chance that Estrada's WHIP is worse than Liriano's. 

Yeah, I'm not talking projections here... I'm just stating what I feel. I have no numbers to back it up. But I think I mentioned in the Jays 2017 thread that I've watched Estrada pitch pretty much every game as a Jay. I just don't think he's as good as he is. It's more of me thinking he drops the ball and is a disaster than Lirano posting a really great WHIP. 

 

Ugh... I'm so down on my team this year.

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yeah, I'm not talking projections here... I'm just stating what I feel. I have no numbers to back it up. But I think I mentioned in the Jays 2017 thread that I've watched Estrada pitch pretty much every game as a Jay. I just don't think he's as good as he is. It's more of me thinking he drops the ball and is a disaster than Lirano posting a really great WHIP. 

 

Ugh... I'm so down on my team this year.

 

I mean you projected something if we're being technical... but I digress... all I'm saying is that Estrada's downside is typically giving up a lot of Home Runs... that doesn't really create a high WHIP... Liriano's always going to walk people... so he does have a high WHIP. 


But this is too small of an argument to keep going on, all I'm saying is that even in a great Liriano result he's not going to have a sparkling WHIP... he just never does. 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean you projected something if we're being technical... but I digress... all I'm saying is that Estrada's downside is typically giving up a lot of Home Runs... that doesn't really create a high WHIP... Liriano's always going to walk people... so he does have a high WHIP. 


But this is too small of an argument to keep going on, all I'm saying is that even in a great Liriano result he's not going to have a sparkling WHIP... he just never does. 

No, I didn't. I didn't say Estrada will have X whip and Lirano will have X whip. I said I think that Lirano will have a better WHIP than Estrada. It's a thought. But if I want to look at a number, I'll go ahead and point out that his BB/9 has gone up each year since 2013. His IP has steadily gone up, and I think he's going to be a tired sack of crap by August and we'll see a big regression. His FIP/xFIP/SIERA are up, and when his back was rough he lost control and was bad. 

So again... I personally think/feel/believe that Estrada will have a higher WHIP than Liriano. It's not based on a number and I'm not projecting a number. Liriano doesn't need to have a "sparkling WHIP" in order for Estrada to have a higher WHIP. 

Edited by BlueJaysIn2030
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1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No, I didn't. I didn't say Estrada will have X whip and Lirano will have X whip. I said I think that Lirano will have a better WHIP than Estrada. It's a thought. But if I want to look at a number, I'll go ahead and point out that his BB/9 has gone up each year since 2013. His IP has steadily gone up, and I think he's going to be a tired sack of crap by August and we'll see a big regression. His FIP/xFIP/SIERA are up, and when his back was rough he lost control and was bad. 

So again... I personally think/feel/believe that Estrada will have a higher WHIP than Liriano. It's not based on a number and I'm not projecting a number. 

 

This is such a silly semantical argument but how would it be unfair to say that you projected Liriano to have a better WHIP than Estrada? You're literally just not wanting to use that word in that context. 

 

But whatever. All I'm saying is that I see it as a very low percentile outcome becuase Estrada is a flyball pitcher with fewer walks so he's very very likely to have a lower WHIP despite how good of a year either of them have. I think Estrada could have an ERA a full run higher than Liriano and still not have a higher WHIP. 

 

But again, stupid argument. 

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Just now, taobball said:

But whatever. All I'm saying is that I see it as a very low percentile outcome becuase Estrada is a flyball pitcher with fewer walks so he's very very likely to have a lower WHIP despite how good of a year either of them have. I think Estrada could have an ERA a full run higher than Liriano and still not have a higher WHIP. 

 

But again, stupid argument. 

You're right, but you have to get involved in an opinion because it doesn't match yours. You just can't help it. I love the stuff you post, and I've been using your Top 250 extensively and agree with you, but you sure do get hung up when people have an opinion. I see it all the time and it really takes away from what post.

 

I agree with you. Estrada should be fine. But I personally think that he will be bad this year. He didn't pass the "eye-test" for me last year, he got hurt, his control suffered, he hasn't pitched this much before, he's an extreme flyball hitter in a tiny park with questionable OF defence... Yeah, not all of that correlates to a high WHIP, but I just don't think he's this good. I look at him as the Jay's Sonny Gray - screaming for massive regression. I think 2017 is the year it happens and I think it ends badly.

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

You're right, but you have to get involved in an opinion because it doesn't match yours. You just can't help it. I love the stuff you post, and I've been using your Top 250 extensively and agree with you, but you sure do get hung up when people have an opinion. I see it all the time and it really takes away from what post.

 

I think you're having an extreme overreaction. 

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

Do you guys think Moncada makes the team, he is not hitting a lick.

Of course he won't make the team.  He isn't ready for the majors yet.  The total inability to hit major league breaking balls last year when he was called up in September would tell anyone he would not start for a team directly out of spring training.

Add there is need for Chicago to gain another year of control.  Also they aren't going to compete for anything this year anyway.

So it makes no sense to rush him up to fail.  Again, let him face his failures and overcome them in the minors before the big spotlight is on him in the majors.  He hasn't played all that many games above high A.  Just some in AA Portland.  Cuban baseball doesn't feature top breaking ball pitchers usually.  He isn't ready for prime time.

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6 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

Is that an opinion or statistically based?

 

I don't have any problem with anybody's opinion. Am I not supposed to believe in mine? I'm just kinda at a loss here. Just because I disagree with someone doesn't mean I'm trying to be disrespectful towards them I just believe what I believe and it's that simple. I don't know why I can't have that.

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I don't have any problem with anybody's opinion. Am I not supposed to believe in mine? I'm just kinda at a loss here. Just because I disagree with someone doesn't mean I'm trying to be disrespectful towards them I just believe what I believe and it's that simple. I don't know why I can't have that.

Man I was just poking fun at the whole conversation/situation.. no offense or disrespect meant toward you (or bj2030). Its what I do.. bad timing and awkwardness. 

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3 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

Man I was just poking fun at the whole conversation/situation.. no offense or disrespect meant toward you (or bj2030). Its what I do.. bad timing and awkwardness. 

 

Youre fine I just felt a little backfooted the last few posts of that makes any sense

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Heyward now 2-21. Does his defense continue to buy him PT or could we see Jay and Almora more this season?

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1 minute ago, screagle215 said:

Heyward now 2-21. Does his defense continue to buy him PT or could we see Jay and Almora more this season?

 

I do t think spring will be the indicator but I do think he loses PT if he performs poorly through the season. Maybe not to Jay and Almora though, but to the Baez Schwarber Zobrist trio

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3 hours ago, screagle215 said:

Heyward now 2-21. Does his defense continue to buy him PT or could we see Jay and Almora more this season?

 

Watching Hayward makes me think he'd benefit from minor league time if he still hasn't gotten his swing down by opening day.  It won't happen though. 

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3 hours ago, screagle215 said:

Heyward now 2-21. Does his defense continue to buy him PT or could we see Jay and Almora more this season?

ST or not that is horrific.

For me if a player does well in ST, it means nothing.  If he does poorly, it means a lot.  

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4 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Watching Hayward makes me think he'd benefit from minor league time if he still hasn't gotten his swing down by opening day.  It won't happen though. 

It's weird because his new swing - to me - doesn't really look like a good swing. It seems seems kinda, I don't know... Long?

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So who will be the Cubs outfield, who will get the most playing time?

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26 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

So who will be the Cubs outfield, who will get the most playing time?

Heyward is owed like $900000000000000 so he'll be in the OF.

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12 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

What about the other 2 spots

Some combination of Schwarber/Zobrist/Almora/Heyward for all 3 positions. Zobrist is gonna get a little more rest this year I think.

One thing the Cubs could do is trade Heyward if he's hitting well or even Zobrist. That would free up a spot for Almora who is a pretty solid player. 

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