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Brandin Cooks 2017 Season Outlook

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2 minutes ago, jmausen said:

I'm an engineer.  Induction leads to deduction.  If your data/results don't match your original hypothesis, then you formulate a new hypothesis and do more tests.

Large data sets include multiple variables and interactions that are not included in general theories/assumptions.

 

 

I'm Joe football fan. I watch football. If I see an awesome football player be awesome on one team, then get traded to an even better team, with a better QB, and a better coach, then I assume said awesome player will continue to be awesome, likely even more awesome.

 

I simply assume induction, deduction, data, hypotheses, tests, data sets small and large, variables, interactions, general theories, and assumptions will back up thus assumption of awesomeness.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

Bizarre response.

 

I used this as a way to guess Cooks' FLOOR. You know...absolute worst case scenario assuming health? Show me where I compared the two from a talent or physical standpoint. It's about targets and pecking order in the pass game. And again, THIS WAS ME MAKING A GUESS ABOUT HIS FLOOR FOR 2017.

 

 

Please, give me a reasonable explanation of what you feel Cooks' floor will be in 2017 with a healthy Gronk and Edelman. 

Oh, I see. You admit LaFell and Cooks aren't comparable from a talent or physical standpoint, meaning their roles in the offense will be substantially different, yet you think it's a good comp to use when projecting the floor for Cooks. 

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26 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I'm only trying to point out the risk of drafting him in the second round.

He could easily be WR 5-10.

He also might be very over-drafted depending on how the Patriots decide to use him his first year.

I'd like to find more Brady deep pass stats over the last few seasons for a more accurate assessment.

 

I'm an engineer.  Induction leads to deduction.  If your data/results don't match your original hypothesis, then you formulate a new hypothesis and do more tests.

Large data sets include multiple variables and interactions that are not included in general theories/assumptions.

 

Being angry doesn't foster constructive discussions. 

 

Well your result came back that Cooks and Edelman would get 1200 combined total yards. That should have been a trigger to formulate a new hypothesis and do more tests and maybe reevaluate the numbers and percentages you used. After reevaluating your numbers you would've realized the wide receivers you used for top 3 in receptions for the Patriots never started a full 16 game season. There should be 48 games started total in your test but it looks like your "average percent" only accounted for if the 3 wide receivers started 32 games out of 48 (not doing the math because it's a waste of time) a season.

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23 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Oh, I see. You admit LaFell and Cooks aren't comparable from a talent or physical standpoint, meaning their roles in the offense will be substantially different, yet you think it's a good comp to use when projecting the floor for Cooks. 

 

Its a good comp to show what happened recently when two semi talented wide receivers played an entire season with Gronk. There hasn't been another season like that for a while. It's nice to see that two wide receivers put up 950+ yards each while gronk was healthy. 

Edited by boltup15

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42 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Its a good comp to show what happened recently when two semi talented wide receivers played an entire season with Gronk. There hasn't been another season like that for a while. It's nice to see that two wide receivers put up 950+ yards each while gronk was healthy. 

I shouldn't have called your post bizarre. It just struck me that way at first. I appreciate your effort in trying to project  a floor for Cooks. I guess I'm just not a believer in projecting floors/ceilings with any accuracy unless the players, situations, etc are extremely similar.

 

In this case, I think the dissimilarities between Cooks & LaFell, along with the possibility of a somewhat dissimilar offensive philosophy from 2014, plus Edlemans age, RB usage, etc are just too many variables to put kuch stock the comp. 

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13 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I shouldn't have called your post bizarre. It just struck me that way at first. I appreciate your effort in trying to project  a floor for Cooks. I guess I'm just not a believer in projecting floors/ceilings with any accuracy unless the players, situations, etc are extremely similar.

 

In this case, I think the dissimilarities between Cooks & LaFell, along with the possibility of a somewhat dissimilar offensive philosophy from 2014, plus Edlemans age, RB usage, etc are just too many variables to put kuch stock the comp. 

 

I'm not the one who said it was a floor :) I'm just defending where @mrblonde1984 is coming from with his floor comp. I think there's a lot of unknowns with how the 3rd WR on this offense meshes with the team. Malcom Mitchell could put a bigger dent on Cooks production than we think. 

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Oh, I see. You admit LaFell and Cooks aren't comparable from a talent or physical standpoint, meaning their roles in the offense will be substantially different, yet you think it's a good comp to use when projecting the floor for Cooks. 

 

I'm not admitting at all that their roles in the offense will be different. As far as we know, Cooks could play on the outside exclusively to challenge the defense deep, which in reality is one of the things most people said this offense needed (a field stretcher). LaFell didn't play the slot in 2014 – he was used on the outside and that was it. So I'm saying, in the worst case scenario (FLOOR) where Cooks isn't moved around and is used exclusively on the outside, he could still potentially put up LaFell's numbers from 2014, even with a healthy Gronk and Edelman. That's it.

 

I'm done though. Between you and mickey maus, there can't possibly be any kind of productive discussion here without it turning into a pissing contest. You don't like to discuss floors and ceilings of players – that's great. It doesn't mean others on here don't like to guess what those two things could be. I never asked for you to respond to my floor post, yet you did, then claimed you don't like to get into those kind of discussions. Apparently you do...

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1 hour ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

I'm not admitting at all that their roles in the offense will be different. As far as we know, Cooks could play on the outside exclusively to challenge the defense deep, which in reality is one of the things most people said this offense needed (a field stretcher). LaFell didn't play the slot in 2014 – he was used on the outside and that was it. So I'm saying, in the worst case scenario (FLOOR) where Cooks isn't moved around and is used exclusively on the outside, he could still potentially put up LaFell's numbers from 2014, even with a healthy Gronk and Edelman. That's it.

 

I'm done though. Between you and mickey maus, there can't possibly be any kind of productive discussion here without it turning into a pissing contest. You don't like to discuss floors and ceilings of players – that's great. It doesn't mean others on here don't like to guess what those two things could be. I never asked for you to respond to my floor post, yet you did, then claimed you don't like to get into those kind of discussions. Apparently you do...

I never said I don't like discussing floors/ceilings What I said was,  "I guess I'm just not a believer in projecting floors/ceilings with any accuracy unless the players, situations, etc are extremely similar." I then explained why, in my opinion, the situations and players involved in your floor projection weren't similar enough to be reliable. 

 

I'm certainly not looking for a pissing contest. Not at all. I'm sorry if I offended you by pointing out what I believe are flaws in your projection. I admitted calling it "bizarre" was a poor choice of words. Don't take it so personally.

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Aside from Brady and Gronk, draft NE skill position players at your own peril. In most cases Cooks is going to be overvalued because of the nature of the acquisition,  draft status, etc. I would much rather target one of the other NE receivers who's ADP gets pushed down a little because of Cooks. 

 

Actually that's probably a great debate question: who will have the higher ADP? Edelman, Gronk or Cooks? 

Edited by pikerbkb

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9 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Actually that's probably a great debate question: who will have the higher ADP? Edelman, Gronk or Cooks? 

 

I don't think there's any debate about it, but I'll be your huckleberry.

 

Gronk (16-24)

Cooks (22-30)

Edelman (42-58)

 

That would be my guess for their ranges.

Gronk shouldn't make it out of the 2nd round of a 12 team PPR snake. (Jordy, Dez, Gurley, Ajayi)

Cooks will have 2nd round reaches, but likely settle in the middle of the 3rd. (Baldwin, Hopkins, Allen, A.Rob)

Edelman will be the last of the 3, and likely taken anywhere from mid 4th, to mid-late 5th. (Crabtree, Tate, B.Marsh, Moncrief)

 

Obviously, preseason will drastically alter the way people perceive these plays, and 1 long bomb to Cooks could vault him into the early/mid 2nd round because of how people overreact.  Still have the draft and more moves to come as well.  But for the time being, I'd be rather surprised to see anyone expect an alternate order of ADP.

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18 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Aside from Brady and Gronk, draft NE skill position players at your own peril. In most cases Cooks is going to be overvalued because of the nature of the acquisition,  draft status, etc. I would much rather target one of the other NE receivers who's ADP gets pushed down a little because of Cooks. 

 

Actually that's probably a great debate question: who will have the higher ADP? Edelman, Gronk or Cooks? 

Not even a question Cooks over Edelman.  

 

Cooks and Gronk will end up being neck & neck going into the preseason (a few big Brady/Cooks connections in the preseason will tilt ADP towards Cooks).  Current ADP's on FF Calc are almost a full round apart with Gronk 2.10 & Cooks 3.09.  Cooks ADP will rise substantially though in the coming weeks/months.  He's definitely going to move up over Brady and the RB Ware, Rawls, AP, & CJ (and could possibly go over Ingram & Hyde).  He should leapfrog WR Tyreke Hill,  ARobinson, KAllen and DaVante Adams.  It will end up being really close IMO

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I like and appreciate whomever put those receiving yards stats up a while back. I think it at least helps give an idea as to what yards are available for Cooks. In looking at Gronk's career game logs, it is pretty clear that when he's healthy, he is going to pace somewhere between 1,100 and 1,250 of the passing yards (roughly.) Since 2013, when Edelman has been healthy, his pace for between 1,100 and 1,200 of the Brady's passing yards (roughly.) Assuming Brady throws for 4,800 yards next year (rough guess. Other than his one 5k +, that is about his ceiling.) Subtract 1,100 yards for Gronk and Edelman each and you are left with 2,600 yards for the rest of the team.

 

Assuming Gronk and Edelman both stay healthy, a huge if, that means there are still about 2,600 yards up for grabs. I took a look at Hogan, Amadola and the RBs but everyone was hurt at various times so its difficult to tell the amount of receiving yards they accounted for. Extremely rough guess is 1,000 - 1,100 yards combined. ?Even if you throw, say 400 yards to Jack Doyle and especially if they run more 3 WR sets, it seems reasonable that there is a good chance for Cooks to hit 1,000 yards. ? throw in, say, 7 TDs and you have a WR2 in standard. ?

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1 hour ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Not even a question Cooks over Edelman.  

 

Cooks and Gronk will end up being neck & neck going into the preseason (a few big Brady/Cooks connections in the preseason will tilt ADP towards Cooks).  Current ADP's on FF Calc are almost a full round apart with Gronk 2.10 & Cooks 3.09.  Cooks ADP will rise substantially though in the coming weeks/months.  He's definitely going to move up over Brady and the RB Ware, Rawls, AP, & CJ (and could possibly go over Ingram & Hyde).  He should leapfrog WR Tyreke Hill,  ARobinson, KAllen and DaVante Adams.  It will end up being really close IMO

See, i love this because Edelman (if healthy) will be the best value, imo. Gronk playing a full season is always dicey and I like the idea of Cooks more than what the reality will be. I think he's mainly going to have the DJack role and is not a redzone threat. I mean, the Pats paid top dollar for Cooks, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's going to eat more than Edelman or Gronk. A lot of his role is going to be field stretcher and opening up opportunities for the entire offense.

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Cooks is a great add for NE but for me he will continue to be a fantasy boom and bust as he has to compete with 7 other guys for targets and keep it real guys his last QB was a a future hall of famer who throws it more than brady and spreads it around too.

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8 hours ago, pikerbkb said:

See, i love this because Edelman (if healthy) will be the best value, imo. Gronk playing a full season is always dicey and I like the idea of Cooks more than what the reality will be. I think he's mainly going to have the DJack role and is not a redzone threat. I mean, the Pats paid top dollar for Cooks, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's going to eat more than Edelman or Gronk. A lot of his role is going to be field stretcher and opening up opportunities for the entire offense.

 

But did the Patriots really pay top dollar? They gave up the last pick in the first round (#32 overall) and the 39th pick in the third round, and still received a top-11 4th round pick in return (basically moved down 16 spots from their original 3rd rounder). NE didn't give up any premium picks. The Saints frankly blew this thing as far as maximizing the return on a Cooks trade. They apparently could have received the #18 overall pick from Tennessee, plus another pick.

 

Unless the Saints have further plans before and during the draft, they basically showed everyone how not to negotiate. They have too many defensive holes to use pick #11 on a receiver; and even if they do, that receiver will have a learning curve in year one (not everyone is Mike Thomas). This all just looks like they were overly anxious to get rid of Cooks as quickly as possible.

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1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

But did the Patriots really pay top dollar? They gave up the last pick in the first round (#32 overall) and the 39th pick in the third round, and still received a top-11 4th round pick in return (basically moved down 16 spots from their original 3rd rounder). NE didn't give up any premium picks. The Saints frankly blew this thing as far as maximizing the return on a Cooks trade. They apparently could have received the #18 overall pick from Tennessee, plus another pick.

 

Unless the Saints have further plans before and during the draft, they basically showed everyone how not to negotiate. They have too many defensive holes to use pick #11 on a receiver; and even if they do, that receiver will have a learning curve in year one (not everyone is Mike Thomas). This all just looks like they were overly anxious to get rid of Cooks as quickly as possible.

And what happens?  The Pats...the Super Bowl 5 time winning Pats make yet another savvy move to position themselves to be stronger this year to win another ring.

Why would the Saints make a trade with these guys?  Especially in lieu of what the Titans were offering?  

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8 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Why would the Saints make a trade with these guys?  Especially in lieu of what the Titans were offering?  

 

Probably because it was just a rumor and not true.

 

1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

They apparently could have received the #18 overall pick from Tennessee, plus another pick.

 

Appearing on 104.5 The Zone in Nashville on Monday, Titans GM Jon Robinson revealed he never offered the No. 18 pick for Cooks, the second of two first-rounders the Titans own.  According to PFT's Mike Florio, the Titans offered to swap first-round picks -- No. 5 for No. 11 -- and a third-round pick to the Saints in exchange for Brandin Cooks.

 

Saints could move up 5 spots in the first, and get a 3rd.

or

Move up 15 spots in the third, and get a 1st.

 

I'm not a GM, nor am I a draftnik, but given the Saints position, I'd much rather have 2 first round picks, than a 5 spot bump early in the draft.  Obviously it depends on your draft board, but given the (what I read) depth of the Defensive Talent in this draft, I think the NE trade made more sense for NO's assumed goal in this draft.

 

Cooks is a good player, but he doesn't make or break the NO offense.  He was expendable to them.  Ginn isn't anywhere near as good as Cooks, but when it comes to running go routes to clear space underneath, he'll get the job done.  M.Thomas obviously did enough to show that perhaps he can be the star receiver of this offense.  Snead is no slouch, Brandon Coleman has very intriguing measurable, and has flashed here and there, plus the Saints are likely to grab another WR in the later rounds, not to mention their increased commitment to the run game over the past 2 years.

 

I'm not familiar with the NO salary numbers, or who's contract will be up when, but Cooks' contract is solid for '17, but then becomes an 'option' in '18, and FA in '19.  Perhaps the Saints knew they weren't going to be able to afford him, or simply that they weren't willing to pay him what he would be worth, especially with M.Thomas coming on so strong, that taking a 1st round pick now, is better than the unknown of next year, or perhaps getting nothing out of him and in 2 years watching him walk with zero return.

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3 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

And what happens?  The Pats...the Super Bowl 5 time winning Pats make yet another savvy move to position themselves to be stronger this year to win another ring.

Why would the Saints make a trade with these guys?  Especially in lieu of what the Titans were offering?  

 

Oh the Patriots definitely get props for this. That's why they are the class of the NFL. For all intents and purposes, they got an experienced, fast receiver for the first pick in the second round. I get that Cooks was disrupting the locker room in New Orleans and what not, but they would have been better off just keeping him until the draft and make a trade then, instead of just giving him away (aka get Belichick'd). Even the hypothetical trade with Tennessee @FFCollusion cited by Florio would be better IMO: swapping #11 for #5 and receiving a 3rd. They would then have a shot at one of the game-changers in the secondary (Lattimore from OSU or Adams from LSU), especially if either SF or Jax goes QB.

 

But bottom line, as you said, the Patriots just keep showing why they are contenders every single year.

Edited by dabeesta17

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Very possible the trade ends up being Malcolm Butler for Cooks. Butler is apparently "warming to the idea" of playing in NO. They could easily offer NE the 32nd pick back for Butler once Butler signs his RFA tender. 

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My take on that...I'd rather have Butler than the pick. If Butler gets traded there will be a glaring need at CB for NE, who would be starting Gilmore and Eric Rowe, and possibly Cyrus Jones in the slot. 

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I'd rather have Butler than Garropolo right now, if my goal is to go all out to get a 6th SB for Tom.  He's that valuable.

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3 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

My take on that...I'd rather have Butler than the pick. If Butler gets traded there will be a glaring need at CB for NE, who would be starting Gilmore and Eric Rowe, and possibly Cyrus Jones in the slot. 

 

Keep Butler.

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19 hours ago, calibar said:

this guy going to be overdrafted af

 

Can't see it. Not unless he has a big pre-season.

 

Too much skepticism surrounding a player that already divided opinions. I'd say he is a solid third rounder.

 

 

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