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Brandon Marshall 2017 Season Outlook

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The reason I like his value in the 5th ia solely on td potential....history says tds are tough to chase but a healthy season with eli in my opinion translates to 10 tds...dudes a monster in the redzone...imo

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LOL, i don't know why i wrote Sharpe. I meant Shepard. Whenever i think Sterling, i think Sharpe for some reason.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Farfromhome said:

At 30.5 I'll take the over....I think a tad puts him at the 30-35 mark....unless they all of a sudden sign Blount or Adrian to be the hammer rb I see them throwing at short and goal more then they would like increasing his tds...all my opinion of course 

 

Can you put money on this? I'm serious here.

 

$20?

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15 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

eli manning will be this year's Matt Ryan 

 

They still have to fix the left tackle position. 

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11 hours ago, Farfromhome said:

We had such a good conversation going then u ruined it with PUT MONEY IN THIS...oh well....fine....1 million dollars

 

762195e1666497074ede151e0cbeb39738a411d9

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12 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

Your idea of an upgrade... is less fantasy points?

Eli may be better than Jay, the Giants might be better than the Bears... but if it results in a worse fantasy season for Marshall... who cares?
You're confusing reality with fantasy.  In fantasy, Cutler and the bears were better for Marshall than Eli and the Giants likely ever will be.  In the 4 healthy seasons Cutler/Marshall played together, Marshall averaged 176 targets, 106 catches, 1,358 yards, and 9 TDs.  So, why should I care how good you think the Giants and Eli are, if you're using that as a reason that Marshall won't be as good as a fantasy player that he was with the Bears and Cutler?
Marshall will not break 170 targets in this offense, he will not break 100 catches, nor will he reach 1350 yards.  In fantasy, this is a downgrade across the board in my opinion.

 

 

McAdoo was the OC for the Giants for 2 years before taking the HC job for the Giants, but semantics.  The point is, my 3 year data sample directly coincides with McAdoo's presence on the team.  Eli isn't efficient enough, and no matter how badly McAdoo wants to be Green Bay, Eli is trash compared to Rodgers, and it's not going to happen.  You're delusional if you think differently.

You cited 2015 as a 'career year' for Eli... you know, that amazingly awesome year he tied Ryan Fitzpatrick in fantasy points... woohoo.  Know who else he tied?  The very same Aaron Rodgers who also had a career year.  Oh except one thing, it was a career worst for Aaron Rodgers, and a career best for Eli Manning... and they tied in fantasy points.  Since 2008 when Aaron Rodgers became the starter, he's thrown 71 interceptions in his 9 seasons.  The exact same amount Eli has thrown since 2013, or 4 seasons.  Since McAdoo has shown up, Eli has thrown 91 TDs and 44 INT.  In that same time without McAdoo, Rodgers has thrown 109 TDs and 20 INT, despite the two QBs only being separated by 243 total passing yards.  McAdoo can 'want' as much as he likes, the reality is that he's stuck with Eli.  McAdoo did not make Rodgers, nor the Greenbay offense successful.  They were so before he arrived, and still after he left.  McAdoo can not turn Eli into something he's not, nor can B.Marsh.  Eli is just a guy, a middling fantasy QB, one of about 18 QBs who hover in the 3 point spread of 19-22 PPG, all cycling and competing to be the best bottom half QB1 of any given week.  Even if he were to jump up to the 4500/30 range... he still wouldn't be a top 6 QB.

 

I just don't see where his success can come from.  They run 3 Wide 96% of the time, Eli already averages over 600 attempts per year... so unless we're expecting a massive reduction in TE Targets (Will Tye lead the team with 62) or a a severe reduction in RB targets (Vereen lead the team with 81) or you expect the Giants to completely ignore their 2nd round pick in Shepard (not Sharpe @predator_05) who had 100 targets last year... I'm just not convinced that there's enough to go around.

 

I guess if we really fudge the numbers we give him Cruz' 72 for a baseline.  Take 20 from Vereen, 20 from Shepard, 20 from Tye... that brings us to 132, if we pretend OBJ's target share goes untouched by B.Marsh which I disagree with, but I digress.  I suppose there are ways to make the numbers fit your narrative if you desire, but the same question stands...

 

Even if we assume he goes over 1,000 yards;

Why Brandon Marshall over Larry Fitz in the 5th? Or Demaryius in the 4th?
If it's purely for the TD upside, I can understand that.  But you still have to find at least 130 targets, given Marshall's career 59% catch rate, to get 76 receptions, at his average per catch rate of 13 yards, to hit the 1k mark.

 

What? No.  You don't use someones career high as a 'baseline', that doesn't even... uggggghhhh

 

 

Slow down.

 

McAdoo came to the giants in 2014 to run the offense.  It took Eli half a season to start being effective with the new system.  The new offense emphasizes the pass game at the expense of the run.  What used to be rushing yards and rushing TDs are now passing yards and passing TDs.  Career high passing stats for Eli are to be expected.  Eli was comfortable with the offense in the second half of 2014. Cruz tore his patellar tendon Oct 12, 2014.   ODB sat out the first 4 games of his rookie year with a hamstring injury and becomes Eli's go-to target.  Doctor says Cruz's patellar tendon looked like shredded chicken.  I never thought he would play another down.  2015 was a semi-competent Ruben Randle year.  ODB goes off again.  No running game because they pass a ton.  Record passing stats for Eli, yes.  2016 receivers are ODB, a developing 2nd round rookie, and shredded chicken.  Of course the passing numbers were down.  Now Eli has arguably the best 3 receivers he's ever played with and an offense system that doesn't give a crap about the running game.  It's very plausible that Eli throws for more than 35 TDs this year.  It's not crazy. 

 

Now if you want to pretend Eli is not a good QB, he had:

-the other Steve Smith/Mario Manningham - made that duo look pretty great somehow while the team emphasized the run

-Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz - Better tandem, but still lots of running

-ODB/Ruben Randle - new system with less running and career passing yards and TDs

 

And he has won 2 Superbowls.

 

I'm trying to help people find value in their drafts.  Typically, the top 3 QBs are a premium.  Most seasons, the difference between QB4 and QB12 is roughly 30 passing yards per game.  I let everyone else grab their QBs while I'm taking my 3rd and 4th RB2 for injury depth.  I took Stafford last year after 14 QBs were already gone.  He was top 5 until Marvin Jones was injured.  Still didn't lose me any games.

 

And everyone said I was crazy last spring when I suggested Cousins would have a good year and Cam Newton would be over-rated.  Nailed that one.

Edited by jmausen

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38 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

 

Slow down.

 

McAdoo came to the giants in 2014 to run the offense.  It took Eli half a season to start being effective with the new system.  The new offense emphasizes the pass game at the expense of the run.  What used to be rushing yards and rushing TDs are now passing yards and passing TDs.  Career high passing stats for Eli are to be expected.  Eli was comfortable with the offense in the second half of 2014. Cruz tore his patellar tendon Oct 12, 2014.   ODB sat out the first 4 games of his rookie year with a hamstring injury and becomes Eli's go-to target.  Doctor says Cruz's patellar tendon looked like shredded chicken.  I never thought he would play another down.  2015 was a semi-competent Ruben Randle year.  ODB goes off again.  No running game because they pass a ton.  Record passing stats for Eli, yes.  2016 receivers are ODB, a developing 2nd round rookie, and shredded chicken.  Of course the passing numbers were down.  Now Eli has arguably the best 3 receivers he's ever played with and an offense system that doesn't give a crap about the running game.  It's very plausible that Eli throws for more than 35 TDs this year.  It's not crazy. 

 

Now if you want to pretend Eli is not a good QB, he had:

-the other Steve Smith/Mario Manningham - made that duo look pretty great somehow while the team emphasized the run

-Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz - Better tandem, but still lots of running

-ODB/Ruben Randle - new system with less running and career passing yards and TDs

 

And he has won 2 Superbowls.

 

I'm trying to help people find value in their drafts.  Typically, the top 3 QBs are a premium.  Most seasons, the difference between QB4 and QB12 is roughly 30 passing yards per game.  I let everyone else grab their QBs while I'm taking my 3rd and 4th RB2 for injury depth.  I took Stafford last year after 14 QBs were already gone.  He was top 5 until Marvin Jones was injured.  Still didn't lose me any games.

 

And everyone said I was crazy last spring when I suggested Cousins would have a good year and Cam Newton would be over-rated.  Nailed that one.

 

Lots of people here were predicting regression for Cam last season, and saying he was over valued including FFCollusion. 

 

If you want to say Eli is going to outperform his ADP next season, I doubt anyone has an issue with that.  Saying his baseline for TD passes is 35 is a bit lofty.  It's probably 25-30, and like Pred, I'd take the under of 30.5 if we were betting today.  

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5 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Lots of people here were predicting regression for Cam last season, and saying he was over valued including FFCollusion. 

 

If you want to say Eli is going to outperform his ADP next season, I doubt anyone has an issue with that.  Saying his baseline for TD passes is 35 is a bit lofty.  It's probably 25-30, and like Pred, I'd take the under of 30.5 if we were betting today.  

 

I was calling the Cam regression in April.  It's in the Cousins 2016 thread.  Others caught on later.

 

Eli has never had 3 receivers of this caliber and they don't run the ball.  If he's the 14th QB drafted in your league, take him.

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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

I was calling the Cam regression in April.  It's in the Cousins 2016 thread.  Others caught on later.

 

Cam Newton had 45 touchdowns in 2015.  Expecting his TDs (and thus his fantasy production) to regress in 2016 wasn't exactly a bold prediction.  

 

Nobody would predict 45 TD's as Cam's baseline next season either.   Just like predicting 35 as Eli's baseline is a bit off.  You don't take a players baseline as a ceiling, and you typically expect regression if they've had an insanely good year compared to their career (like Cam 2015).

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Eli had his best season ever, but using 30-35 TDs as a  minimum or starting point is over estimating him a bit.

 

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2 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Lots of people here were predicting regression for Cam last season, and saying he was over valued including FFCollusion. 

 

If you want to say Eli is going to outperform his ADP next season, I doubt anyone has an issue with that.  Saying his baseline for TD passes is 35 is a bit lofty.  It's probably 25-30, and like Pred, I'd take the under of 30.5 if we were betting today.  

Predicting a regression for Cam was without a doubt one of the easiest things to do. HIs 2015 season was such a huge outlier it's hilarious.

 

As for Eli he has had 35 TDs or more once and it was dead on 35.

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4 hours ago, jmausen said:

I was calling the Cam regression in April.  It's in the Cousins 2016 thread.  Others caught on later.

 

Eli has never had 3 receivers of this caliber and they don't run the ball.  If he's the 14th QB drafted in your league, take him.

I pointed it out in December, in Cam's thread, so it seems you're the one who caught on late.

But as @Gohawks mentioned, that was an easy call.

 

5 hours ago, jmausen said:

1: Now Eli has arguably the best 3 receivers he's ever played with and an offense system that doesn't give a crap about the running game.  It's very plausible that Eli throws for more than 35 TDs this year.  It's not crazy. 

 

2: Now if you want to pretend Eli is not a good QB

 

3: And he has won 2 Superbowls.

 

4: I'm trying to help people find value in their drafts.  Typically, the top 3 QBs are a premium.  Most seasons, the difference between QB4 and QB12 is roughly 30 passing yards per game.  I let everyone else grab their QBs while I'm taking my 3rd and 4th RB2 for injury depth.  I took Stafford last year after 14 QBs were already gone.  He was top 5 until Marvin Jones was injured.  Still didn't lose me any games.

 

5: And everyone said I was crazy last spring when I suggested Cousins would have a good year and Cam Newton would be over-rated.  Nailed that one.

 

1: I agree Eli has the best WRs he's ever had, and that it's possible he throws 35+ TDs.  What's crazy is when you claimed he's a better QB than Aaron Rodgers, regardless of whether you meant in real football or fake football, both are wrong.

 

2: No pretending, Eli is not a 'good' QB.  I label QBs the way politicians label society.  Brady, Brees, Rodgers stand out from the crowd, they're upper class, or what I would consider 'good' QBs.  You could argue another names 2 belong here, but let's skip that for now.  The point is, Eli's name doesn't belong anywhere near those 3 in real life or in fantasy.  Eli is a middle class QB.  You could argue he's at the higher end if you want, that's fine.  He's going to float around QB6-QB18 most years.  He's not special.  Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Romo, Rivers, etc make up this group.  Low end QB1s more often than not.  He's not a good Qb, but at least he's not poverty level; Mark Sanchez.

 

3: Superbowls mean damn near nothing to me.  My perception of Matt Ryan as a QB, would not have changed whether he won or lost the superbowl.  Let's be realistic for a moment, let's pretend the Patriots didn't come back and win the game.  Does that make Matt Ryan's performance better?  Does that make him a more skilled QB in your opinion?  Does his 284 passing yards and 2 TD performance against the Patriots carry a different weight on his skill level depending on whether or not he won or lost the game?  Some may say yes, in fact, most Eli fans will definitely say yes.  But to me, my evaluation of Matt Ryan didn't change because they lost the superbowl.  His skillset didn't change.  The quality of his throws, his accuracy, etc... none of that changes based on the results of the super bowl outcome.

 

4: Eli will likely be a value, I have no argument with that statement.  But why are you picking Eli?  2011(18.6) and 2015(18.8) are his career years.  The first when he went (roughly)4900/29 and the latter when he went (roughly)4400/35.  *Yahoo default scoring.  Tyrod Taylor is currently being drafted after Eli, who just managed 18.6 PPG with Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods, and Percy Harvin.  The year prior with 12 games of Watkins, Tyrod managed 19.6 PPG in his rookie season.  Higher than Eli Manning has ever reached in his entire career.  Blake Bortles also being drafted after Eli, coming off a top 10 season(which many could argue was the ugliest in recent memory) in '16, preceded by '15 another rookie year better than Eli's ever hit in his entire life (20.8PPG)

 

5: I didn't follow the Cousins thread, but as a person who drafted him in a few leagues for cheap, he did well.  He was top 10 in 2015, and in 2016 got DeSean Jackson back, so I'm not sure why people would think it would be crazy for him to repeat.  Hell, even Acts Elf got that one right, and that's really saying something.

 

If the entire foundation of your argument is the following:

Eli's new WR core, will give him the best opportunity of his career, and for his current draft cost, he's a nice 'wait on QB' target, likely to return low end QB1 production for cheap...

 

Then I agree, and we can move on.  I believe there are better values, and even if Eli reaches your claims, he'll still be no better than a weekly streamer, but... you can take that to the Eli thread.  Sorry for going off topic on B.Marsh, I'll refrain from anymore responses for the time being that are unrelated to him.

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I pointed it out in December, in Cam's thread, so it seems you're the one who caught on late.

But as @Gohawks mentioned, that was an easy call.

 

 

1: I agree Eli has the best WRs he's ever had, and that it's possible he throws 35+ TDs.  What's crazy is when you claimed he's a better QB than Aaron Rodgers, regardless of whether you meant in real football or fake football, both are wrong.

 

2: No pretending, Eli is not a 'good' QB.  I label QBs the way politicians label society.  Brady, Brees, Rodgers stand out from the crowd, they're upper class, or what I would consider 'good' QBs.  You could argue another names 2 belong here, but let's skip that for now.  The point is, Eli's name doesn't belong anywhere near those 3 in real life or in fantasy.  Eli is a middle class QB.  You could argue he's at the higher end if you want, that's fine.  He's going to float around QB6-QB18 most years.  He's not special.  Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Romo, Rivers, etc make up this group.  Low end QB1s more often than not.  He's not a good Qb, but at least he's not poverty level; Mark Sanchez.

 

3: Superbowls mean damn near nothing to me.  My perception of Matt Ryan as a QB, would not have changed whether he won or lost the superbowl.  Let's be realistic for a moment, let's pretend the Patriots didn't come back and win the game.  Does that make Matt Ryan's performance better?  Does that make him a more skilled QB in your opinion?  Does his 284 passing yards and 2 TD performance against the Patriots carry a different weight on his skill level depending on whether or not he won or lost the game?  Some may say yes, in fact, most Eli fans will definitely say yes.  But to me, my evaluation of Matt Ryan didn't change because they lost the superbowl.  His skillset didn't change.  The quality of his throws, his accuracy, etc... none of that changes based on the results of the super bowl outcome.

 

4: Eli will likely be a value, I have no argument with that statement.  But why are you picking Eli?  2011(18.6) and 2015(18.8) are his career years.  The first when he went (roughly)4900/29 and the latter when he went (roughly)4400/35.  *Yahoo default scoring.  Tyrod Taylor is currently being drafted after Eli, who just managed 18.6 PPG with Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods, and Percy Harvin.  The year prior with 12 games of Watkins, Tyrod managed 19.6 PPG in his rookie season.  Higher than Eli Manning has ever reached in his entire career.  Blake Bortles also being drafted after Eli, coming off a top 10 season(which many could argue was the ugliest in recent memory) in '16, preceded by '15 another rookie year better than Eli's ever hit in his entire life (20.8PPG)

 

5: I didn't follow the Cousins thread, but as a person who drafted him in a few leagues for cheap, he did well.  He was top 10 in 2015, and in 2016 got DeSean Jackson back, so I'm not sure why people would think it would be crazy for him to repeat.  Hell, even Acts Elf got that one right, and that's really saying something.

 

If the entire foundation of your argument is the following:

Eli's new WR core, will give him the best opportunity of his career, and for his current draft cost, he's a nice 'wait on QB' target, likely to return low end QB1 production for cheap...

 

Then I agree, and we can move on.  I believe there are better values, and even if Eli reaches your claims, he'll still be no better than a weekly streamer, but... you can take that to the Eli thread.  Sorry for going off topic on B.Marsh, I'll refrain from anymore responses for the time being that are unrelated to him.

 

I hope I never said Eli Manning is better than Arron Rogers. That's dumb.   A better person maybe.  Rodger's hasn't returned his family's calls since winning his first Superbowl.  He even returns their Christmas presents.

 

I don't spend capital drafting an elite QB.  (Too many running back injuries in the past killed my season.  I'm usually loaded with 4-5 of the top 24 running backs because they're hardest to replace.)  Dalton was top 5 for me 2 years ago until he got hurt, then I picked up Cousins for the playoffs.  Cousins was top 5 last year.  Nobody wanted Stafford last year (easiest schedule coming off a strong end of season).  He was a top 5 QB until Marvin Jones was injured.  Still finished top 10 without him.  Grabbing a cheap QB that can compete with the big boys isn't that hard.  Need to know who everyone hates and what weapons, scheme, and strength of schedule that player has this year.  Just takes a little homework.

 

The Superbowl reverence was to imply when he has the right tools and his head in the game, he can finish.  He might be set up for that again this year.

 

Eli has chance to have a pretty great season, and few people have any faith in him.  A shutdown corner shouldn't effect him this year.  Throw to the other side of the field.

 

Super low risk value.  Throw a dart.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

I hope I never said Eli Manning is better than Arron Rogers. That's dumb.   A better person maybe.  Rodger's hasn't returned his family's calls since winning his first Superbowl.  He even returns their Christmas presents.

 

I don't spend capital drafting an elite QB.  (Too many running back injuries in the past killed my season.  I'm usually loaded with 4-5 of the top 24 running backs because they're hardest to replace.)  Dalton was top 5 for me 2 years ago until he got hurt, then I picked up Cousins for the playoffs.  Cousins was top 5 last year.  Nobody wanted Stafford last year (easiest schedule coming off a strong end of season).  He was a top 5 QB until Marvin Jones was injured.  Still finished top 10 without him.  Grabbing a cheap QB that can compete with the big boys isn't that hard.  Need to know who everyone hates and what weapons, scheme, and strength of schedule that player has this year.  Just takes a little homework.

 

The Superbowl reverence was to imply when he has the right tools and his head in the game, he can finish.  He might be set up for that again this year.

 

Eli has chance to have a pretty great season, and few people have any faith in him.  A shutdown corner shouldn't effect him this year.  Throw to the other side of the field.

 

Super low risk value.  Throw a dart.

 

 

 

Yeah Rodgers is extremely unlikable. Seems like a dick while ESPN is all over his. 

 

Recipe for not being liked.

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On 3/8/2017 at 11:59 AM, FFCollusion said:

This is going to be a very unpopular opinion... but I think OBJ and BMarsh will cannibalize each other, very similarly to the way Amari and Crabtree do.  They both still produce, they both will have a huge game here and there, but both will seemingly disappear at points.  In PPR, Amari and Crabtree finished 16th and 12th respectively last year.  Both went over 1,000 yards, they split 13 TDs among them.  I think OBJ is better than Amari, and Marshall is better than Crabtree, and Eli and Carr are close, edge to Eli for fantasy purposes, because his turn over rate is so much higher, that it forces Eli to continue to throw, bad for real football, good for fantasy football. Roughly 30 more attempts, 560 passing yards, and 3 TDs per year.

 

I get that he's 33, but Marshall is currently languishing at the top of the 5th round in PPR.  With OBJ there to take the heat, if Marshall stays healthy and establishes good chemistry with Eli, he looks like a decent value currently (i.e., a mid-level WR2 most of the time?)

 

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19 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I get that he's 33, but Marshall is currently languishing at the top of the 5th round in PPR.  With OBJ there to take the heat, if Marshall stays healthy and establishes good chemistry with Eli, he looks like a decent value currently (i.e., a mid-level WR2 most of the time?)

 

Agreed. With OBJ taking the heat and the occasional double-team, how can Marshall be stopped? He's a big target, exceptional WR, and he's tall enough and handy enough to catch some of Eli's more erratic passes. Might have mentioned this on the Eli thread, but I imagine defenses will have a tough time with this duo, with this WR/TE corps. Marshall has been the #1 target his entire career; now as a #2 I think it's an entirely safe bet that he puts up WR2 numbers weekly.

 

The off-the-field chemistry / respect is already in place. 

Eli_BMarsh.jpg

Eli_BMarsh2.jpg

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

All the Giants locker room needs now is Terrell Owens.

Why not double down and get Ochocinco?  Would make for "great" "reality" TV. 

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6 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

Why not double down and get Ochocinco?  Would make for "great" "reality" TV. 

 

Reality TV + football will be dominated by the Bucs this year. Hard Knocks should be a blast.hardknocksbucs.jpg.0b338f0872630fdeded1226beb1f805d.jpg

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I don't even think Eli could f--- this up. 

Giants get a taste of their Odell Beckham-Brandon Marshall dream

"The enticing dream situation unfolded in red zone drills with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., back for his second practice after skipping organized team activities, making a sliding catch for a touchdown on a pass from Eli Manning in the left corner of the end zone. Several plays later, Brandon Marshall made a leaping catch over cornerback Valentino Blake in the right corner of the end zone. Marshall plucked the ball one-handed from over Blake’s back for his score."

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/52168/giants-get-a-taste-of-their-odell-beckham-brandon-marshall-dream

Edited by pikerbkb

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Got him at 75/975/8 (220 points.) Love him this year in that offense.

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