IlliniGuy76

Jordan Howard 2017 Season Outlook

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Before taking thoughts/predictions on Howard's Sophomore campaign let's take a look at a few things:

 

- He was a 5th round pick and was the second overall rusher in football in 2016

 

- He had limited offensive help in Chicago and still produced at an elite level

 

- The guy really didn't play the first two games (only amassing 11 total carries in those first two games)

 

What a Rookie year!  Curious to see how this cat does in his second season!

Edited by IlliniGuy76

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14 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

Before taking thoughts/predictions on Howard's Sophomore campaign let's take a look at a few things:

 

- He was a 5th round pick and was the second overall rusher in football in 2016

 

- He had limited offensive help in Chicago and still produced at an elite level

 

- The guy really didn't play the first two games (only amassing 11 total carries in those first two games)

 

What a Rookie year!  Curious to see how this cat does in his second season!

 

I wouldn't say limited help. He had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Still he had a great year nonetheless

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5 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I wouldn't say limited help. He had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Still he had a great year nonetheless

 

He had Brian Hoyer & Matt Barkley throwing the ball for the majority of the season.

 

He had Eddie Royal, Josh Bellamy, Deonte Thompson catching passes - Alshon Jeffrey missing time, and Kevin White never getting established/hurt.

 

They had very limited offensive weapons, regardless of the offensive line help he had.

Edited by IlliniGuy76

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1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

He had Brian Hoyer & Matt Barkley throwing the ball for the majority of the season.

 

He had Eddie Royal, Josh Bellamy, Deonte Thompson catching passes - Alshon Jeffrey missing time, and Kevin White never getting established/hurt.

 

They had very limited offensive weapons, regardless of the offensive line help he had.

 

You forgot about Cameron Meredith and Brian Hoyer had some good games along with Matt Barkley. You also forgot about Marques Wilson. 

 

An oline can make a huge advantage for a running back when you don't have many other options on your team. Look at the impact Crowell had last year with the Browns and their oline. 

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1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

He had Brian Hoyer & Matt Barkley throwing the ball for the majority of the season.

 

He had Eddie Royal, Josh Bellamy, Deonte Thompson catching passes - Alshon Jeffrey missing time, and Kevin White never getting established/hurt.

 

They had very limited offensive weapons, regardless of the offensive line help he had.

 

The offensive line is arguably the most important thing for a rb outside of his control.

 

Crappy darren mcfadden finished 4th in rushing behind the dallas oline in 2015 despite not starting half the season.

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51 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

You forgot about Cameron Meredith and Brian Hoyer had some good games along with Matt Barkley. You also forgot about Marques Wilson. 

 

An oline can make a huge advantage for a running back when you don't have many other options on your team. Look at the impact Crowell had last year with the Browns and their oline. 

 

If you think that teams were designing defensive schemes around stopping Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and Marques Wilson you are very incorrect.  All three are well below average NFL players.

 

Cameron Meredith does have a chance of being a nice low-end WR2/WR3-type in the NFL.  

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On 3/4/2017 at 1:22 PM, IlliniGuy76 said:

Before taking thoughts/predictions on Howard's Sophomore campaign let's take a look at a few things:

 

- He was a 5th round pick and was the second overall rusher in football in 2016

 

- He had limited offensive help in Chicago and still produced at an elite level

 

- The guy really didn't play the first two games (only amassing 11 total carries in those first two games)

 

What a Rookie year!  Curious to see how this cat does in his second season!

 

I expect a bump in usage and TDs for both Howard and Ware this year.

9th RB in standard scoring with virtually no rushing TDs.  

5.2 YPC with a 4.6 YPC team average!  He should easily be top 5 in 2017.  Especially if the Bears decide to embrace a dysfunctional group of WRs. 

 

I hope the Bears go hard after defense in free agency/draft and just run the crap out of the ball.  They have a SOLID O-line.  One more DE will solidify that line.  Get some secondary and linebackers.  Forget about WRs this year.

 

PLAYER, TEAM POS Fantasy PTS ypc carries per TD
Robert Turbin, Ind RB 73 3.489362 6.714285714
Mike Gillislee, Buf RB 111 5.712871 12.625
Tevin Coleman, Atl RB  Q 148 4.40678 14.75
Latavius Murray, Oak RB 164 4.041026 16.25
LeGarrette Blount, NE RB 218 3.882943 16.61111111
LeSean McCoy, Buf RB  Q 238 5.41453 18
David Johnson, Ari RB 313 4.228669 18.3125
Shaun Draughn, SF RB 72 2.648649 18.5
Ryan Mathews, Phi RB  Q 125 4.264516 19.375
Matt Asiata, Min RB 90 3.322314 20.16666667
Devonta Freeman, Atl RB 216 4.753304 20.63636364
Christine Michael, GB RB 105 3.939189 21.14285714
Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB 280 5.065217 21.46666667
Derrick Henry, Ten RB 85 4.454545 22
Zach Zenner, Det RB 66 3.795455 22
Chris Thompson, Wsh RB 86 5.235294 22.66666667
Jonathan Stewart, Car RB 129 3.779817 24.22222222
DeAngelo Williams, Pit RB 77 3.5 24.5
Jeremy Hill, Cin RB 147 3.779279 24.66666667
Melvin Gordon, SD RB  Q 199 3.925197 25.4
Ty Montgomery, GB WR, RB  Q 87 5.935065 25.66666667
C.J. Anderson, Den RB  Q 80 3.972727 27.5
Robert Kelley, Wsh RB 110 4.190476 28
Isaiah Crowell, Cle RB 153 4.808081 28.28571429
Matt Forte, NYJ RB  Q 141 3.729358 31.14285714
Jay Ajayi, Mia RB 177 4.892308 32.5
DeMarco Murray, Ten RB 229 4.392491 32.55555556
Tim Hightower, NO RB 92 4.120301 33.25
Mark Ingram, NO RB 181 5.087805 34.16666667
Carlos Hyde, SF RB  Q 154 4.552995 36.16666667
Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB  Q 231 4.858238 37.28571429
Terrance West, Bal RB 124 4.010363 38.6
Jordan Howard, Chi RB 189 5.210317 42
Devontae Booker, Den RB 98 3.517241 43.5
Bilal Powell, NYJ RB 128 5.51145 43.66666667
Giovani Bernard, Cin RB  Q 74 3.703297 45.5
Todd Gurley, LA RB 141 3.183453 46.33333333
Darren Sproles, Phi RB 97 4.659574 47
Doug Martin, TB RB  SSPD 66 2.923611 48
Lamar Miller, Hou RB 148 4.003731 53.6
Rashad Jennings, NYG RB 92 3.276243 60.33333333
Jacquizz Rodgers, TB RB 68 4.341085 64.5
Frank Gore, Ind RB 164 3.897338 65.75
Spencer Ware, KC RB 147 4.303738 71.33333333
Duke Johnson Jr., Cle RB 78 4.90411 73
Jerick McKinnon, Min RB 95 3.389937 79.5
Jalen Richard, Oak RB 77 5.915663 83
Theo Riddick, Det RB  Q 99 3.880435 92
T.J. Yeldon, Jax RB  Q 75 3.576923 130

 

 

RK TEAM ATT YDS YDS/A LONG TD YDS/G FUM FUML
1 Buffalo 492 2630 5.3 75 29 164.4 11 3
2 Cleveland 350 1712 4.9 85 13 107.0 12 5
3 Dallas 499 2396 4.8 60 24 149.8 9 2
4 Tennessee 476 2187 4.6 75 16 136.7 10 4
5 Atlanta 421 1928 4.6 75 20 120.5 3 1
6 Chicago 380 1735 4.6 69 10 108.4 9 3

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I know its early, but I've been doing a few mock drafts and after LB,DJ&EzE Jordan Howard and Devonte Freeman always seem to be the next most logical choices. I like Jordan Howard a little more considering how well he did with relatively few TDs and basically skipping 4 games (RBBC.) It also seems to me that after these 5 RBs, you are looking at some pretty risky and uninspiring options.

 

So, my question is, would you take Jordan over a WR like M Evans or Julio (Standard Scoring)? Seems like he is more valuable given the fact that you are left with guys like Carlos Hyde or Thomas Rawls as your RB1 option if you don't. Howard ended up with 200 points in standard effectively minus 4 games and with only 7 TDs.  By comparison, Mike Evans had 208 points in standard as the #1 WR.

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12 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

I know its early, but I've been doing a few mock drafts and after LB,DJ&EzE Jordan Howard and Devonte Freeman always seem to be the next most logical choices. I like Jordan Howard a little more considering how well he did with relatively few TDs and basically skipping 4 games (RBBC.) It also seems to me that after these 5 RBs, you are looking at some pretty risky and uninspiring options.

 

So, my question is, would you take Jordan over a WR like M Evans or Julio (Standard Scoring)? Seems like he is more valuable given the fact that you are left with guys like Carlos Hyde or Thomas Rawls as your RB1 option if you don't. Howard ended up with 200 points in standard effectively minus 4 games and with only 7 TDs.  By comparison, Mike Evans had 208 points in standard as the #1 WR.

Thomas Rawls? I can name at least 20 RBs I rather have. 

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On 3/8/2017 at 10:20 AM, jmausen said:

I expect a bump in usage and TDs for both Howard and Ware this year.

 

^^^^^^^^

 

Howard's usage on the ground was just fine last year: 20 carries per game starting in week 8.  His pass-game usage was low though: only 50 targets on the year.  I imagine his target share grows.  Also 6 TDs on the year could easily become 12.   The sky is the limit for this guy.  I'm taking him as the 4th RB off the board.  Hard to find such a consistent yardage floor for a RB.

 

I also like Ware a lot, these are my two favorite RBs based on value in the first 3 rounds.

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Right, but in standard where do you value J Howard? Would you take him top 5 and pass on Julio or Odell or would you settle as Hyde or one of your other 20 as your RB1?

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19 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Would you take him top 5 and pass on Julio or Odell

 

Yes and hell yes. 

 

Howard or Brown at 4 overall, flip a coin, in my view. 

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5 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Yes and hell yes. 

 

Howard or Brown at 4 overall, flip a coin, in my view. 

 

 

That's how I'm seeing it too. Only 1 year of experience and Fox is a stubborn old mule but I like him a lot better than many of the other options in round 1.

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1 minute ago, Mavis said:

Very few RBs I would take over a stud WR, I love Howard, but right now he isnt one of them. 

 

Averaged 5.1 YPC as a rookie. Second only to McCoy among backs with over 200 carries. 

 

Gets volume. Is efficient with it. What's not to love? 

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3 minutes ago, Mavis said:

Very few RBs I would take over a stud WR, I love Howard, but right now he isnt one of them. 

 

That means you are looking at M Ingram or C Hyde etc as your #1 RB. Howard was within 8 points of the #1 WR in standard scoring last year with only 7 TDs. That's some nice consistency with a room for more upside. So, if WR over J Howard, then who do you see as your #1RB? Curious.

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Guys, let's keep the thread focused on Jordan Howard's Outlook, not the people posting.  No need to make this personal - not a request, it's the CoC.  The posts in question and any replies are invisible. Carry on

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16 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Averaged 5.1 YPC as a rookie. Second only to McCoy among backs with over 200 carries. 

 

Gets volume. Is efficient with it. What's not to love? 

 

I love him, just not going to invest in a RB that high over the likes of OBJ when the odds of connecting on a RB, just like Howard last year, it more than possible and can often happen for those who have the touch of finding such diamonds in the rough. Could turn into a Gurley situation. 

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20 minutes ago, Mavis said:

 

I love him, just not going to invest in a RB that high over the likes of OBJ when the odds of connecting on a RB, just like Howard last year, it more than possible and can often happen for those who have the touch of finding such diamonds in the rough. Could turn into a Gurley situation. 

 

I agree with you there.   @Lord_Varys and I were just having this debate yesterday.    It's a risky pick on a rb who doesn't have a proven history.      But to say,  "it's easy to find a top rb late or on waivers" is silly.  It really comes down to picking the right players and using waivers to further whichever strategy you prefer.  

 

Zero rb is one of the most discussed topics on RW.   Even the strongest proponents don't claim they have a crystal ball. 

 

@FFCollusion

@mrblonde1984 are zero rb guys and can comment further if you wish to have a more in depth look at the issue.  

 

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49 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 It's a risky pick on a rb who doesn't have a proven history.  

 

No doubt about this.  Let's look at last year for example:: Gurley vs DJ vs Zeke vs Miller.  All good case studies in potential first round RBs without a long track record.  Half those guys hit.  One whiffed.  The other underperformed but didn't kill you.  Compare this to Antonio Brown, who was picked #1 overall even in standard scoring leagues.  And even though he had a down year by his standards, it was a safe pick because you know what you're getting for the most part.  Didn't kill you in the way that Gurley did.  Brown and Evans are the only locks for safety that I see this year.

 

Here's last year's ADPs, per http://www03.myfantasyleague.com/2016/adp:

1st: Brown, Beckham, Jones, Gurley, Johnson, Elliott, Green, Hopkins, Peterson, Bell, Gronk, Robinson

2nd: Miller, Bryant, Newton, Freeman, Rodgers, Nelson, Evans, Allen, Marshall, Cooper, Lacy, Charles

 

 

Some takeaways from this:
- I count 4 WRs who were season-long busts, and 5 when you add Green who was a bust when you needed him.  I won't count Dez and his missed time.

- I count 4 RBs who were season long busts, due to either injury or ineffectiveness.  Miller I'm not counting as a bust, just a let down on par with Cooper (who I did not count0.

- More WRs went than RBs, so RB had a higher bust rate.

- Injury or letdown apply to both positions after a certain point.

- Jordan Howard could be DJ, or he could be Gurley, or he could be somewhere in between.

 

Gurley never lost his talent, but the offensive situation fell off a cliff and teams dialed in to stop him.

 

What I saw out of Howard -- volume, efficiency, eye-test and tackle breaking -- he's got it all.  Jeffery or no, Hoyer or Cutler, he produced.  A Gurley like bust is definitely possible.  Based on numbers and eye test, I don't believe it will happen.  I've got to go with my gut.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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From a Bears fan's perspective here:  if you place great value on offensive line play when drafting fantasy RBs, the Bears have one of the best situations available now.  C Whitehair and RG Long are both Pro-Bowl caliber, and while tackles Leno, Jr. and Massie have questions in the pass game, they are adequate, if not above average, in the run game.  The return of Hroniss Grasu from injury gives them starter-level depth on the bench in case of an injury.

 

The other factor I like in Howard's favor is that the Bears' defense should be marginally better.  Maybe not an actual good NFL defense, but with early strong showings from some of their draft picks and a competent defensive coordinator, even a middling defense would put the Bears in more situations in which they can rely on the run game and not Mike Glennon.

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More reason for optimism is his scouting report from last year. He was spot-on what the report predicted which compared him to Arian Foster and called him "the best pure runner in this draft" which included Ezekiel Elliot.

 

Overview

When Alabama-Birmingham decided to shut down its football program before the 2015 season, the Hoosiers found an outstanding player waiting for a new opportunity in Howard. The Alabama native had two very productive years for the Blazers, who stood by him during the recruiting process after he suffered a torn meniscus and a stress fracture in his pelvis during his junior year in high school. Howard earned five starts as a true freshman in 2013 (881 yards, 6.1 yards per rush average, two touchdowns) and then exploded for first-team All-Conference USA honors the next season. He actually set a UAB rushing record with 1,587 yards on a workhorse-level 306 carries in 2014, scoring 13 times. The step up to a Power Five conference didn't faze Howard, as he won over Big Ten coaches for first-team All-Conference honors (1,213 rush yards, 6.2 yards per rush, nine touchdowns; 11 catches, 106 yards, one touchdown receiving). Rushing for 174 yards against a tough Iowa squad, as well as 238 on 35 carries against Michigan, showed he has the talent to succeed at any level.

 

Pro Day Results


40-yard dash: 4.59 seconds
Short shuttle: 4.34 seconds
3-cone: 7.14 seconds

Analysis

Strengths

Showed ability to step his game up against top competition at both UAB and Indiana. Rushed for at least 145 yards in every full game he played. Natural runner who combines tempo with a special feel for spacial relationships. Pro­-ready vision gives him outstanding feel for run lane developments at the line of scrimmage and onto the second level. Consistently chooses best angles and creases for optimal yardage. For a big back, can make himself skinny through tight quarters. Decisive and punishing. Drops pads and accelerates into contact to batter would-­be tacklers on the second and third levels. Drives legs through arm tackles and goes about his work. Hard-­charging when its third- or fourth-and-short. Showed potential in screen game as receiver.

Weaknesses

Doesn't have sudden one-­cut ability and has to tap brakes to hit it downhill on outside zone runs. One-speed runner. Can be chased down by backside sprinters before getting to the second level. Takes big hits due to bruising running style. Scouts concerned about ability to stay healthy. Missed four games and parts of three others with knee and ankle injuries. Upright pads and narrow base leads to slips and balance issues when trying to make sharp cuts. Rarely factored into passing game at UAB or Indiana.

Draft Projection

Rounds 2 or 3

Sources Tell Us

"He's the best pure running back in this draft. I've coached some good ones and he's what you look for. His injuries will knock him back a round or so, and he's not as well-rounded as Ezekiel Elliott is, but I think this kid is the best runner in this year's draft." -- AFC running backs coach

NFL Comparison

Arian Foster

Bottom Line

Howard has the optimal size and talent needed to strap the pads on and become a productive workhorse for a team looking for one, true lead back. Howard's vision, power and subtle shiftiness allow him to create and break tackles along the way. Staying healthy in the NFL is a legitimate concern for Howard considering his relentless running style. If he can stay healthy, Howard has the ability to become an instant factor as an NFL starter.
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19 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Howard has good hands so he should see an uptick in targets and receptions this year

I thought I saw that Howard either had one of the lowest catch rates and/or highest # of drops among all starting rbs. (?)

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