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BlakeP42

Odell Beckham Jr 2017 Season Outlook

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Played 16 games / Avg. 13.5 per catch / 169 targets / 101 receptions  / 1,367 yards with 10 TDs in 2016......this guy is one of the true  unquestioned top talents in the league 

 

What are the expectations for Odell in 2017 and how does the Marshall signing impact him overall??

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49 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

Played 16 games / Avg. 13.5 per catch / 169 targets / 101 receptions  / 1,367 yards with 10 TDs in 2016......this guy is one of the true  unquestioned top talents in the league 

 

What are the expectations for Odell in 2017 and how does the Marshall signing impact him overall??

 

Dents his ceiling, but still a top-3 WR. 

 

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10 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Dents his ceiling, but still a top-3 WR. 

 

 

It might help Odell fall further from #1 in startups. 

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I like having a guy across from Beckham that actually has to be covered by a viable CB... maybe even doubled at times.

I'm not sure Beckham loses much when all is said and done and the final numbers come out...

He may lose some looks at the stripe, but I doubt he loses the volume of looks.

I think we'll see Manning's forced throws to Cruz, Donnell, and Tye go to Marshall... he's certainly a more reliable target and will help keep the chains moving.

Shepard may be roaming free all over the field while roasting CB3s all day... probably loses consistent fantasy value, but will still be a Giants playmaker.

Roger Lewis just needs to take another step forward this season and continue his development.

 

Get Vereen back healthy, draft one of those TEs, and shore up the line.

Joshua18 offered (in another thread) that Eli will be underrated going in to drafts... I agree.

Not sure I'd want him for my QB1 (underrating him myself?), but he can certainly be drafted as a strong QB2 with Top 10 upside.

Edited by Winky
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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Dents his ceiling, but still a top-3 WR. 

 

Not sure. Maybe falls behind Evans and Green.

 

Those two were practically there with the top 3 already in my book. So this should push him above ODB. Marshall won't kill him but he should have just enough impact to move him down a bit. 

 

It's hilarious when a big time player gets signed alongside another one and people act like it is a good thing. He will take away some targets and redzone work. ODB is still top 5 though.

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Dents his ceiling, but still a top-3 WR. 

 

 

Finished #4 in ESPN standard scoring last year.

 

 

PLAYER, TEAM POS       C/A   YDS    TD   INT    RUSH   YDS    TD     REC   YDS    TD   TAR     2PC  FUML    TD   PTS
Jordy Nelson, GB WR   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   97 1257 14 152   0 1 0   200
Mike Evans, TB WR   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   96 1321 12 175   2 0 0   200
Antonio Brown, Pit WR   0/0 0 0 0   3 9 0   106 1284 12 155   0 0 0   193
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WRnews_breaking.png   0/0 0 0 0   1 9 0   101 1367 10 169   0 1 0   188

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12 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Finished #4 in ESPN standard scoring last year.

 

 

PLAYER, TEAM POS       C/A   YDS    TD   INT    RUSH   YDS    TD     REC   YDS    TD   TAR     2PC  FUML    TD   PTS
Jordy Nelson, GB WR   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   97 1257 14 152   0 1 0   200
Mike Evans, TB WR   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   96 1321 12 175   2 0 0   200
Antonio Brown, Pit WR   0/0 0 0 0   3 9 0   106 1284 12 155   0 0 0   193
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WRnews_breaking.png   0/0 0 0 0   1 9 0   101 1367 10 169   0 1 0   188

 

Are you drafting Jordy as the #1 WR in standard this year? Didn't think so. 

 

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Are you drafting Jordy as the #1 WR in standard this year? Didn't think so. 

 

 

Well, going by ADP, I'd rather take Jordy in the second round than ODB in the first round.

There is that.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Are you drafting Jordy as the #1 WR in standard this year? Didn't think so. 

 

 

I may be considering it. 

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2 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

Well, going by ADP, I'd rather take Jordy in the second round than ODB in the first round.

There is that.

 

Not what I asked.

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13 hours ago, predator_05 said:

For me, he is joint #1 this year alongside Julio.

 

90/1500/15.

 

Julio lost the offense coordinator who throws a crap ton to his "X" and runs the ball a lot.

 

New guy will spread the ball around and be less efficient in the red zone.

 

Eli will still target the crap out of ODB.

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13 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not what I asked.

 

I don't draft that way.  People can take whomever.  I grab the best value in each round.

 

Baldwin and Crabtree were 10th and 11th in points last year.  No scary reason to expect significant regression.  Their ADPs are 17 and 21.  That's my 4th round pick for WR2.

NE is playing money games with Blount.  He was RB6 last year with an ADP of RB 19 (3.10).  If he is the goal line back in NE, he's my 3rd round pick for RB2.

If I miss on Blount, then Gore and Crowell finished 13 and 15 last year and are going in the 5th and 6th rounds.

First 2 rounds:

Johnson, Zeke, and Bell get the most value.

Jordy can be taken early 2nd and match 1st round WRs.

Looks like going WR/RB would get me an extra 2 points per week at WR but cost me 4 points at RB.

Round 1 RB it is then.

I can also go RB in round 2, then take both Baldwin AND Crabtree in 3 and 4.

Then I'm grabbing high ceiling backups.  Two 11th round WRs look very promising.  Also found 7th, 8th, and 9th round RBs that can crack the top 24.

That means I can take a TE in the 5th or 6th round if there is value at that spot.

I rarely draft a QB before at least 10 are gone.  It's hard to dump a high pick bust QB.  9th or 10th round QB, who cares.  Drop him for best available.  It's a head game.

 

 

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Acting like a guy that has averaged 9 TDs and 1,341 yards when he has joined a new team is not going to have a negative impact on ODB is hilarious.

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Unpopular opinion incoming.  I have Baldwin as my WR9 for next year, and am not touching him until the 2nd half of the 2nd round in standard leagues.

 

- His yards per game has decreased year after year.  108, 96, 85.

- Fantasy points per game, the same: 17, 15, 12.

- His QB is close enough to retirement to see that he's losing arm strength.

- In no universe does Brandon Marshall not negatively impact Beckham's on-field performance.

 

Off the field, I think signing Marshall is the best thing the Giants could have done to set ODB straight for the rest of his career.  But it's going to be a long year for owners.

 

He had 101/1,367/10 last year.  I have him at 95/1,200/8 this year.  This is not first round material.  Even if he repeated last year's performance, he's only a borderline 1st rounder in standard leagues.  But again, I don't see how it's possible he repeats this year, not with all the headwind he's facing.

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56 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 I have Baldwin as my WR9 for next year, and am not touching him until the 2nd half of the 2nd round in standard leagues.

 

Beckham. D'oh. 

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16 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Beckham. D'oh. 

You're going to put 8 other WRs before OBJ? Who?

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1 hour ago, Ffguy0087 said:

You're going to put 8 other WRs before OBJ? Who?

I mean, I don't like Beckham because of his attitude and team, but as much as I knock him for that, I don't think I can get 8 I'd draft ahead of him, even letting fandom affect my rankings. (I'd much rather root for my team and not for my team's rivals.)

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22 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

I mean, I don't like Beckham because of his attitude and team, but as much as I knock him for that, I don't think I can get 8 I'd draft ahead of him, even letting fandom affect my rankings. (I'd much rather root for my team and not for my team's rivals.)

Seriously. There is no freaking way you can list eight WRs you'd take before OBJ without getting laughed at.

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3 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Seriously. There is no freaking way you can list eight WRs you'd take before OBJ without getting laughed at.

Brown, Jones, Evans, Green, Jordy I think are reasonable if not your personal preference.  If Romo goes to Houston (or their option other than him seems competent), I could maybe see someone arguing Hopkins because the upside and proven talent.  Dez if you think the chemistry with Dak is only going to grow (was a top 6 receiver over the second half of the season in standard). Baldwin if you're happy with 1200/8.

 

That's 8 with some major reaches.  Maybe, if you're pants-wettingly terrified of Marshall's impact on OBJ and Eli's decline, I could see someone thinking Hilton, or Thomas without Cooks, or Cooks with Brady instead of Brees.  

 

It's just so many major reaches to make that happen that I can't see what my fellow ASOIAF fan is thinking. 

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3 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Unpopular opinion incoming.  I have Baldwin as my WR9 for next year, and am not touching him until the 2nd half of the 2nd round in standard leagues.

 

- His yards per game has decreased year after year.  108, 96, 85.

- Fantasy points per game, the same: 17, 15, 12.

 

 

Odell is a lock for 150+ targets. Only two other receivers will get the same volume in their offense; Julio and Brown.

 

TDs and yards are variable from year to year, anyone's guess. Last year wasn't his best, but his role remains unchanged. Targets, usage, ego (don't laugh, i'm serious) are better indicators of future performance.

 

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2 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

You're going to put 8 other WRs before OBJ? Who?

 

Brown, Evans, Julio, Green, Jordy, for obvious reasons. 

 

Dez, who I have for 1200 and 10.  Loss of CBs and addition of big time WRs in the division will have Dallas passing more. 

 

Michael Thomas, who I expect will rise modestly to 1200 and 10.

 

Baldwin, who I expect will rise modestly to 1200 and 9.

 

I have Beckham decreasing modestly to 1200 and 8.  He had, I think, 1350 and 10 last year. 

 

Beckham has first round celebrity name value, no doubt, and has produced like a rock star in the past.  But he's been trending down steadily since he burst onto the scene and I don't know how Marshall doesn't hurt him further. 

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11 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

Odell is a lock for 150+ targets.

 

Respect your opinion, but disagree! I think 150 is a good over/under for him this year.  He had 169 last year.  Where will Marshall get all of his targets? 

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55 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

That's 8 with some major reaches.  Maybe, if you're pants-wettingly terrified of Marshall's impact on OBJ and Eli's decline, I could see someone thinking Hilton, or Thomas

 

Not major reaches. Guys just need to keep doing what they've been doing. 

 

And Beckham will keep doing what he's been doing. Declining year after year with his aging QB.  Don't have to be terrified of Marshall's presence to acknowledge he's going to take some targets and TDs away. 

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

Maybe, if you're pants-wettingly terrified of Marshall's impact on OBJ and Eli's decline...

 

In a redraft league, the only real choice to make is whether you think OBJ is worth a top-6 pick.  Because he's not going to be waiting on the board after that.  Someone will dismiss all of the above and grab him, but it's not going to be me in my league.

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