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Eric Hosmer 2017 Outlook

54 posts in this topic

For some reason, there's no outlook thread for Hosmer.  Seems like people are generally pretty down on him.

 

I'm still a little new to the sabermetrics analysis, so bear with me while I try to cobble together an opinion here.  But, looking at his 2016 season leaves me scratching my head a bit.  Last year he lead the league in GB% at 58.9%, all the while posting a very good HR/FB% of 21.4, which led to a career high of 25 HRs.

 

That, to me, looks like a guy that should be trying to hit the ball in the air, but it appears Hosmer is more focused on the dreaded, "hit a ground ball the other way" approach. 

 

So, what do we think Hosmer will be this year?  Can we rely on that HR/FB% to the tune of another 25 HR season, or does he go back to his career norms and hover more around 17.

 

His ADP on ESPN is 84.7, right around Carlos Santana, about 15 picks behind Hanley Ramirez & about 36 behind Jose Abreu.  If you could promise me 80 Rs, 25 HRs & 100 RBIs, with a little bounce back in average, I'm buying.  But another year hovering around .265 with a dip back into the teens in terms of HRs and he looks more like Brandon Belt or Adrian Gonzalez, who I can get around pick 130.

 

 

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He's a worm killing champ in a big ball park.

 

Expect the .266 BA to be a bit higher..but the HRs down, while only stealing maybe 5 bags.. Which makes him pretty much fodder for a 1B in fantasy.  He probably wont be on any of my teams besides really deep ones.  His R/RBI is the only thing that makes him rosterable in 12-14 Formats.

Edited by Slatykamora
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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

He's a worm killing champ in a big ball park.

 

Expect the .266 BA to be a bit higher..but the HRs down, while only stealing maybe 5 bags.. Which makes him pretty much fodder for a 1B in fantasy.  He probably wont be on any of my teams besides really deep ones.  His R/RBI is the only thing that makes him rosterable in 12-14 Formats.

All but guarantee that his HR and RBI #'s will increase. Entering his full prime.

 

You heard it here.

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1 hour ago, lavaman said:

All but guarantee that his HR and RBI #'s will increase. Entering his full prime.

 

You heard it here.

 

Any reason for that? Doesn't seem likely to me with his approach. 

 

You can pay for the uber safety and counting stats for Hosmer but I just don't see really any reason to be excited about it, and I fully expect him to underproduce his ADP. I have him ranked higher because logically he's just so much safer but like I would just rather have Birds upside at this point and if I miss there he's probably my CI not my 1B and I'm probably going to be able to find just as good CI numbers after pick 200 minus a few counting stats. Just don't see the appeal of Hosmer.

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On 3/14/2017 at 5:10 PM, taobball said:

 

Any reason for that? Doesn't seem likely to me with his approach. 

 

You can pay for the uber safety and counting stats for Hosmer but I just don't see really any reason to be excited about it, and I fully expect him to underproduce his ADP. I have him ranked higher because logically he's just so much safer but like I would just rather have Birds upside at this point and if I miss there he's probably my CI not my 1B and I'm probably going to be able to find just as good CI numbers after pick 200 minus a few counting stats. Just don't see the appeal of Hosmer.

I hear ya. Hosmer doesn't produce like the Trout's and Goldy's in the league....    He will never be uber exciting.

But he's a safe pick for solid production. I mentioned that he's entering that special age of 27 and I do think his power numbers go up (not much, but they'll go up).

 

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8 minutes ago, lavaman said:

I hear ya. Hosmer doesn't produce like the Trout's and Goldy's in the league....    He will never be uber exciting.

But he's a safe pick for solid production. I mentioned that he's entering that special age of 27 and I do think his power numbers go up (not much, but they'll go up).

 

 

I agree he's safe but I just don't see more power for his profile than what he showed last year and I'm very much of the opinion that we'll more than likely see less power from him in 2017.

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15 minutes ago, lavaman said:

I hear ya. Hosmer doesn't produce like the Trout's and Goldy's in the league....    He will never be uber exciting.

But he's a safe pick for solid production. I mentioned that he's entering that special age of 27 and I do think his power numbers go up (not much, but they'll go up).

 

I agree.  He had a very slow beginning last season then took off the last 2 months and ended up hitting 25 homers a lot of whcih were in those two months and which was more than he ever has before in a season.  I think we saw the beginning of Hosmer 2.0 in the last half of last season and I look for him to just get better.

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I would be very sad if Hosmer was my starting 1b in fantasy. I have him a fringe starter, like A Gonz.

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10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I agree.  He had a very slow beginning last season then took off the last 2 months and ended up hitting 25 homers a lot of whcih were in those two months and which was more than he ever has before in a season.  I think we saw the beginning of Hosmer 2.0 in the last half of last season and I look for him to just get better.

 

He had 13 homers in the first half and 12 in the second half and hit .225 in the second half. He also had fewer doubles (24) than homers. 

 

Idk, I just don't see what he did last year in that way. His biggest homer month was may.

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We don't use batting average in the league I have him.  But 104 RBIs to go along with those 25 homers sure helped me out last season.  Add in 80 Runs and he more than contributed to my team's build.

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11 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

We don't use batting average in the league I have him.  But 104 RBIs to go along with those 25 homers sure helped me out last season.  Add in 80 Runs and he more than contributed to my team's build.

 

Sure I think that's the argument for Hos tho, lineup slot and counting stats. His BA/Power/Speed combo is incredibly underwhelming for a guy ranked in the top I believe 85 in ESPN draft rooms. 

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I cringe when I think back to 2011 when KC had 5 top 20 prospects including 3 in the top 10. Hosmer was the highest one on the list as well. Sure, they won a World Series a couple of years ago, but not a single one of those five prospects have lived up to their hype. The only one that still has a legit shot is the first one they traded away too. Sad.

I want no part of Eric Hosmer in fantasy baseball. Not now, not ever.

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His hr/fb last year was a clear outlier in his career. He's a very good hitter who is indeed in his prime, but I simply don't see him repeating that 21.4% number. I think he'll be much closer to 20 homers. With Moustakas back and Soler + Moss on board, it stands to reason Hosmer's run total can rebound this year. I think he'll drop in homers, but gain in average and runs. Something around .275 with 20 homers, 90 rbi, 90 runs, and 5 steals sounds about right to me. Solid yet unsexy player. 

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3 hours ago, Dislimb said:

I cringe when I think back to 2011 when KC had 5 top 20 prospects including 3 in the top 10. Hosmer was the highest one on the list as well. Sure, they won a World Series a couple of years ago, but not a single one of those five prospects have lived up to their hype. The only one that still has a legit shot is the first one they traded away too. Sad.

I want no part of Eric Hosmer in fantasy baseball. Not now, not ever.

 

Hosmer has had 2 pretty good seasons based on WAR, 3.5 in '13 & 3.6 in '15.  Unfortunately he oscillates between those and pretty bad seasons, .8 in '14 and, interestingly enough, 1 in '16.

 

But, I'm a lifelong Ms fan, so I'm in no position to turn up my nose at a group that "only" won one World Series. :-D

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Is he hurt, read on CBS he was hit by a pitch during the finals of the WBC, and his elbow is swollen, anyone have any info on this ?

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On Thursday, March 16, 2017 at 4:08 AM, Dislimb said:

I cringe when I think back to 2011 when KC had 5 top 20 prospects including 3 in the top 10. Hosmer was the highest one on the list as well. Sure, they won a World Series a couple of years ago

 

That's the entire point,  to win a WS.  The prospects did what they were supposed to. 

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1 hour ago, billofwa said:

Scheduled to play first and batting 4th today.

Thanks

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He's hasn't produced at all yet.  Seems like all the Royals hitters are bad

 

 

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Not like they've faced any aces either...

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Nothing more frustrating drafting a high floor player and have him struggle.

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14 hours ago, Zerzavy said:

He's hasn't produced at all yet.  Seems like all the Royals hitters are bad

 

 

 

Mike Moustakas says hi. 

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33 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Mike Moustakas says hi. 

 

Haha touche

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