89Topps

Eric Hosmer 2017 Outlook

103 posts in this topic

Buy low, my friends

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've never understood why anyone is enamored with Hosmer.  Some team will massively overpay him in free agency.  He's a rich man's Casey Kotchman.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mjk356 said:

I've never understood why anyone is enamored with Hosmer.  Some team will massively overpay him in free agency.  He's a rich man's Casey Kotchman.

 

He plays everyday .. contributes in all 5 categories .. is a lock in the middle of his team's lineup ... is an above average baserunner for a 1B, etc. a good everyday player whose skill set lends itself well to roto.

 

you don't need every guy to be a 30+ HR offensive monster .. guys you get in the middle rounds who are a near lock to return an ROI on their middle round price tag can be just as valuable. 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mjk356 said:

I've never understood why anyone is enamored with Hosmer.  Some team will massively overpay him in free agency.  He's a rich man's Casey Kotchman.

 

I think he's more Mark Grace than Kotchman

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely brutal start for Hosmer.  .200 average 1Hr and nary a stolen base to be had.  He can't hit lefties at all.  He's basically a platoon player batting 3rd.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dumped Hosmer for Moreland on Monday.  First time owner but soured on him quickly and he was on my bench anyways.  I don't think I'll regret it even if Moreland fizzles out.  Right now the Royals remind me of an NL East squad scoring a couple of runs a game.  IMO not a lot to be gained/lost here.    Maybe if he gets traded to a good offensive squad...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

I dumped Hosmer for Moreland on Monday.  First time owner but soured on him quickly and he was on my bench anyways.  I don't think I'll regret it even if Moreland fizzles out.  Right now the Royals remind me of an NL East squad scoring a couple of runs a game.  IMO not a lot to be gained/lost here.    Maybe if he gets traded to a good offensive squad...

Agree and disagree.  Wouldn't of cut him,

he'll get hot.  He's averaged 22-100 the last 2 years with 90 runs and 6 SB.  But I do agree that this Royals lineup is a snooze.  Maybe Soler will come in and give a spark but they got way too many "fast and good on d" with zero other skills options.  Mondesi, Orlando, Escobar, Moss sucks d**k.  That lineup does suck.  

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Agree and disagree.  Wouldn't of cut him,

he'll get hot.  He's averaged 22-100 the last 2 years with 90 runs and 6 SB.  But I do agree that this Royals lineup is a snooze.  Maybe Soler will come in and give a spark but they got way too many "fast and good on d" with zero other skills options.  Mondesi, Orlando, Escobar, Moss sucks d**k.  That lineup does suck.  

 

Yeah, if he was on a better squad I would have held.   However, those players you just mentioned are helping no one out - Dyson as well.   I guess Hosmer will get it going somewhat again but I am certainly not counting on those 2 years numbers in this lineup.  I think he's looking at 70 runs/80 ribbies max and that is waiver fodder for a 1b.   If he gets traded then I might have lost out but Moreland might have found a nice situation for him in Boston.  I'll take that upside in that lineup for now.  In any event, sometimes you grab a player who performs so badly for you that you just want no part of them ever again.   This is the case for me...      

Edited by knuckleheads

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Yeah, if he was on a better squad I would have held.   However, those players you just mentioned are helping no one out - Dyson as well.   I guess Hosmer will get it going somewhat again but I am certainly not counting on those 2 years numbers in this lineup.  I think he's looking at 70 runs/80 ribbies max and that is waiver fodder for a 1b.   If he gets traded then I might have lost out but Moreland might have found a nice situation for him in Boston.  I'll take that upside in that lineup for now.  In any event, sometimes you grab a player who performs so badly for you that you just want no part of them ever again.   This is the case for me...      

 

After 3 weeks?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

After 3 weeks?


Once you get over the mindset of dropping a guy like that I think so.  Do you think there's hope for that pupgun lineup?  I like Moreland hitting 5th in Boston better than Hosmer with the Royals.  Environment does mean something.  Disagree??

Edited by knuckleheads

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:


Once you get over the mindset of dropping a guy like that I think so.  Do you think there's hope for that pupgun lineup?  I like Moreland hitting 5th in Boston better than Hosmer with the Royals.  Environment does mean something.  Disagree??

 

Absolutely, but you may be overreacting to a 3 week sample size.

 

MM is a platoon player that never hit lefties throughout his whole career.  The Red Sox are a class organization that will eventually put him in a platoon, which means you will need to eat up a bench spot,  The only good thing about Hosmer right now is that he plays every day,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Absolutely, but you may be overreacting to a 3 week sample size.

 

MM is a platoon player that never hit lefties throughout his whole career.  The Red Sox are a class organization that will eventually put him in a platoon, which means you will need to eat up a bench spot,  The only good thing about Hosmer right now is that he plays every day,


You could be right though Moreland has been playing against some lefties this year and doing alright thus far (did but not going to look it up again here).  He won't play against the toughest lefties but I don't really want him too either. If he falls off a cliff I can drop him for someone else.  

In the meantime am I really missing out on something special with Hosmer?   If he hits .270, 70 runs, 80 ribbies, 15 homers kind of thing?  Take his name recognition out of the equation and I think I can find that on the wire at almost any time. Our league doesn't use the CI designation so there's plenty of players available.  

Actually, I did try to trade him and squeeze him into deals but no one was interested and he is currently sitting in our FA pool.   If he turns it around, and the Royals start scoring runs then so be it I might have erred on that one.  Or maybe I'll pick him up.  Regardless, I can't foresee it actually making much of a difference to the fortunes of my squad. 

 

Edited by knuckleheads

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a player coming off the DL next week, and Hosmer is my first in line to cut. He's just not that good, and although ranked around 1B #10, his production is WW-caliber. A first basement who hits almost all ground balls has no upside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/21/2017 at 0:08 AM, knuckleheads said:


You could be right though Moreland has been playing against some lefties this year and doing alright thus far (did but not going to look it up again here).  He won't play against the toughest lefties but I don't really want him too either. If he falls off a cliff I can drop him for someone else.  

In the meantime am I really missing out on something special with Hosmer?   If he hits .270, 70 runs, 80 ribbies, 15 homers kind of thing?  Take his name recognition out of the equation and I think I can find that on the wire at almost any time. Our league doesn't use the CI designation so there's plenty of players available.  

Actually, I did try to trade him and squeeze him into deals but no one was interested and he is currently sitting in our FA pool.   If he turns it around, and the Royals start scoring runs then so be it I might have erred on that one.  Or maybe I'll pick him up.  Regardless, I can't foresee it actually making much of a difference to the fortunes of my squad. 

 

 

If he cleared waivers and is currently sitting there for free, then I can't really fault you for dropping him.  Keep an eye on him and pick him back up if he gets it going.

 

In the meantime, enjoy Morelands start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drafted Hosmer as the last true startable 1B in a deep 12 team league. I expected him to play well especially in a walk year....man am I feeling like an idiot.

 

Hosmer has by far the worst batted ball mix of his career so far - hitting ground balls at an almost 60% clip (59.7%) which is a career high. Has also added a heavy does of IFFB (19.4%) which are basically strike outs in batted ball form. Hard contact is down 7% from where it was last year (34.4% in 2016 to 27.4% in 2017). To make matters worse he has already grounded into 7 double plays, something he did only 18 times all of last year.

 

Those could all be considered early season struggles for a hitter who has had poor starts before. However, the worst of it is he seems to feel no impetus to change. Sam Mellinger, the Royals beat writer recently wrote about Hosmer's GB tendencies. (http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article146362679.html). In the article Hosmer says: "When I’m going good with myself, there’s certain keys I focus on, and it takes care of all the other stuff. Specifically, I don’t go and look at launch angles, or this angle or that angle. Whatever little key it takes for me to get going, it takes care of all the other stats."

 

Hosmer need not look farther than Moustakas to see the impact a change in approach could have. Moustakas learned to use all fields beat the shift and retain his power. Hosmer for whatever reason has been to arrogant or to ignorant to put in the work to do the same.


I would love to think he bounces out of this. I would love to say he is a buy low candidate. Unfortunately nothing in his numbers, track record or underlying stats suggests that.

 

I am afraid we could be looking at the emergence of a .240 hitter with middling power who is going to be shifted into a platoon role in the years to come.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, mudrummer said:

I drafted Hosmer as the last true startable 1B in a deep 12 team league. I expected him to play well especially in a walk year....man am I feeling like an idiot.

 

Hosmer has by far the worst batted ball mix of his career so far - hitting ground balls at an almost 60% clip (59.7%) which is a career high. Has also added a heavy does of IFFB (19.4%) which are basically strike outs in batted ball form. Hard contact is down 7% from where it was last year (34.4% in 2016 to 27.4% in 2017). To make matters worse he has already grounded into 7 double plays, something he did only 18 times all of last year.

 

Those could all be considered early season struggles for a hitter who has had poor starts before. However, the worst of it is he seems to feel no impetus to change. Sam Mellinger, the Royals beat writer recently wrote about Hosmer's GB tendencies. (http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article146362679.html). In the article Hosmer says: "When I’m going good with myself, there’s certain keys I focus on, and it takes care of all the other stuff. Specifically, I don’t go and look at launch angles, or this angle or that angle. Whatever little key it takes for me to get going, it takes care of all the other stats."

 

Hosmer need not look farther than Moustakas to see the impact a change in approach could have. Moustakas learned to use all fields beat the shift and retain his power. Hosmer for whatever reason has been to arrogant or to ignorant to put in the work to do the same.


I would love to think he bounces out of this. I would love to say he is a buy low candidate. Unfortunately nothing in his numbers, track record or underlying stats suggests that.

 

I am afraid we could be looking at the emergence of a .240 hitter with middling power who is going to be shifted into a platoon role in the years to come.

 

Respectfully disagree. 

 

20 games is a little more than a rough streak, but this guy is still one of the better players in baseball. The last 2 seasons have been his two best and he was the best hitter for the americans in the WBC. The lack of production sucks and I can see why people in one year leagues are a little frustrated, but there is still 140+ games left to the season and I'd bet money on his numbers from today to the end of the season being similar to what we expected. Advanced stats and metrics are great but sometimes you just have to accept the fact a good hitter is having a bad month.

 

As a dynasty owner in a 20 team league I just traded JA Happ for him and I'm beyond thrilled. 

 

Anything 12 teams and up i'd be sticking with him. 10 teams and under you can take the risk because the wire is probably loaded with other good producers and Hosmer wasn't your 4th or 5th round pick but likely your 8th or 9th round pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, corey_rideout said:

 

Respectfully disagree. 

 

20 games is a little more than a rough streak, but this guy is still one of the better players in baseball. The last 2 seasons have been his two best and he was the best hitter for the americans in the WBC. The lack of production sucks and I can see why people in one year leagues are a little frustrated, but there is still 140+ games left to the season and I'd bet money on his numbers from today to the end of the season being similar to what we expected. Advanced stats and metrics are great but sometimes you just have to accept the fact a good hitter is having a bad month.

 

As a dynasty owner in a 20 team league I just traded JA Happ for him and I'm beyond thrilled. 

 

Anything 12 teams and up i'd be sticking with him. 10 teams and under you can take the risk because the wire is probably loaded with other good producers and Hosmer wasn't your 4th or 5th round pick but likely your 8th or 9th round pick.

 

Really hope you are right and I'm wrong...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, corey_rideout said:

 

Respectfully disagree. 

 

20 games is a little more than a rough streak, but this guy is still one of the better players in baseball. The last 2 seasons have been his two best and he was the best hitter for the americans in the WBC. The lack of production sucks and I can see why people in one year leagues are a little frustrated, but there is still 140+ games left to the season and I'd bet money on his numbers from today to the end of the season being similar to what we expected. Advanced stats and metrics are great but sometimes you just have to accept the fact a good hitter is having a bad month.

 

As a dynasty owner in a 20 team league I just traded JA Happ for him and I'm beyond thrilled. 

 

Anything 12 teams and up i'd be sticking with him. 10 teams and under you can take the risk because the wire is probably loaded with other good producers and Hosmer wasn't your 4th or 5th round pick but likely your 8th or 9th round pick.

 

 

That is a gross overstatement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

 

That is a gross overstatement.

 

I think he meant, "This guy still hits ground balls to second base more than anyone in baseball."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep overreacting. It's April. Do you guys believe Zack Cosart will hit over .400 too?

 

You guys have made it through a bad 3 and a half week start to the season. It will get better. Might as well sit tight on him now! I've seen better hitters have the same type of stretches. But sure, drop him for Alonso. Good luck with that! LOL

 

A .280 hitter has months of .220, months of .270 and months of .320 and the law of averages tend to take it's course. 

 

Keep track of Hosmer from today, April 26 until the end of season. Let's see how close he is to a typical Hosmer season from here on out. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, corey_rideout said:

Keep overreacting. It's April. Do you guys believe Zack Cosart will hit over .400 too?

 

You guys have made it through a bad 3 and a half week start to the season. It will get better. Might as well sit tight on him now! I've seen better hitters have the same type of stretches. But sure, drop him for Alonso. Good luck with that! LOL

 

A .280 hitter has months of .220, months of .270 and months of .320 and the law of averages tend to take it's course. 

 

Keep track of Hosmer from today, April 26 until the end of season. Let's see how close he is to a typical Hosmer season from here on out. 

 

 

Did you read the article I linked to? Over hosmer's last 160 games he's the least productive 1b in the game, when discussing offense. Defense? Eh I'm not convinced he's that good, but he's got some gold gloves, so it's arguable he's a defensive asset. That does nothing for us in fantasy though. 

Edited by osb_tensor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, corey_rideout said:

Keep overreacting. It's April. Do you guys believe Zack Cosart will hit over .400 too?

 

You guys have made it through a bad 3 and a half week start to the season. It will get better. Might as well sit tight on him now! I've seen better hitters have the same type of stretches. But sure, drop him for Alonso. Good luck with that! LOL

 

A .280 hitter has months of .220, months of .270 and months of .320 and the law of averages tend to take it's course. 

 

Keep track of Hosmer from today, April 26 until the end of season. Let's see how close he is to a typical Hosmer season from here on out. 

 

 

 

Uh, no.  It's not just a reaction to this season.  He has never been "one of the better players in baseball".  His WAR, by season.

 

1.3

-.7

3.6

.8

3.6

1.0

 

That is miles from "one of the better players in baseball".

Edited by 89Topps
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.